The Empire Report - Monday, March 8, 2021 - Race Analysis
RACE 1 - (6) LYONS WILLIAM may be a good value play in tonight's difficult opener - he was too hot
(and hard to handle) in his first couple of local starts, and has drawn horribly in all his starts since then -
tonight's draw isn't any better, but the overall field quality is much lesser, and Kakaley may have a bit more
confidence after handling him last week - worth a stab? (4) BLAYDE HANOVER has been getting beat in
12.5s so at first glance, he seems like a "field filler" vs. these 15-20s...but many of these have been facing
lesser as well, so he just might be a good fit - good spot for Brennan to get aggressive with him. (7) SOMW
HERENBROOKLN N has failed to get a check in 7 of his last 9 starts....but the other two starts were wins,
and he's actually the last horse to beat Fox Valley Inferno - may be able to be a player if in the right mood
here. (5) HEREHECOMESAROCKIN just missed vs. 20s last start but was aided immensely by the all rail
trip - far from impossible in here, but not worth that 2-1 ML price. (3) MILLIONDOLLAR WAVE is much
better since the recent claim, but not sure he's ready to beat these - willing to consider if the price is long
enough. (1) MAJOR BUCKS returns to YR sporting some dullish form - rail draw may help him grab a
piece. (2) VICTORIAS MAVERICK has been facing cheaper in NJ, and the 2 recent wins were in amateur
events - ships in for a live barn, but would prefer to see him facing easier.
RACE 2 - Wide Open! (4) ROCKNROLL CHARM doesn't have the most exciting lines out of town but he
ships in tonight debuting for a barn that has come back to life recently, and he just may trip out in a race
that could see some action up front - will at least be a good price in a field that's hard to separate. (3) PEMB
ROKE JOEY weakened a bit to 3rd two back but vs. a pair of extremely sharp rivals - no prayer spot in last
but moves back inside and his transformation under his current conditioner has been well documented here
in the past. (1) DRINKA BEER continues to get claimed weekly despite having no WINS since Nov. - he's
always a live player, though, and perhaps his newest barn will find a way to get him over the hump.., and
into the winner's circle. (2) CLASSIC PRO had no prayer in last but his prior 3 starts provided a win and a
pair of close 2nds - hails from the meet's leading trainer, and deserves plenty of respect. (6) MCARDLES
LIGHTNING comes into this off a pair of front end wins, but faced almost no pressure in either - will
almost surely be looking at a tougher trip here and while he CAN win again, there's better value with some
of his inside rivals. (7) RUTHLESS DUDE has been a new horse since the barn change on 1/30, hitting
board in all 5 NJ starts (with a pair of wins) - he does step up and draw Post 7 for his YR return, so insist on
a big price if using tonight. (5) RECORD YEAR has been razor sharp and is riding a 3 race win streak -
he's also stepping up in class while exiting some sharp barns, so we'll see how he handles that.
RACE 3 - Another sharp, well matched field: (1) FOX VALLEY INFERNO isn't a "sexy" pick and he'll
surely be heavily backed...but he's razor sharp right now (won 4 of last 5), has a local record of 8-6-1-0, and
the rail draw makes him the most likely to sit a beautiful trip....but way too many sharp ones here to ever go
overboard at a short price! (2) MAGRITTE came to life with that blowout win 3 back, and has maintained
that top form ever since - 2nd best to the top choice in last, with every chance to reverse that decision here.
(5) PROVOCATIVEPRINCEN had to work very hard for the lead last week and paid for it late in the mile -
Siegelman's mission here should be to blast out quicker, and try to make the top more easily...that would
give him a much better chance to prevail. (6) GIVENUPDREAMING was dull last start for a new barn but
was reclaimed by his favorite trainer, and may perk right back up tonight - if he can get some hot action up
front, he MAY be able to make some significant late noise. (7) TWIN B SPEEDO has won an incredible 8
of his last nine, with the lone loss coming when first over vs. a "winners over" field - the rub here is that
he's been away for 3 weeks AND gets his first bad draw since last Oct. - if ever he was vulnerable, it would
be tonight. (3) CHEYENNE REIJANE races ok every week but usually goes home with just a minor award
- likely scenario for tonight as well. (4) TACT TATE N never looked "strong" during the mile last week but
kept trying and was able to grab 2nd - will need to be a lot sharper in this field, though.
RACE 4 - (2) BRONX SEELSTER hadn't been on his best game in some time but last week's drop (and
spot on the front end) did lead to a sharp 1:52.1 (jogburger) score - not ready to say that he's back to top
form off that one mile, but he does get a free ride in NW15000 tonight and would surely like to head into
next week's Levy (Borgata) Series with some confidence - remains the one to beat, but not worth betting
the rent money at a very short price. (1) YANKEE ROLLER A has only lost once since the barn change
before the new year, and that was when he made a break - steps up (again) to face tougher, but he's more
than sharp enough to handle it - the one with the best shot at knocking off the top choice. (4) VIRGIN
STORM was a sharp first over winner vs. lesser in last - moves up for an eternally sharp barn, and should
be able to take home a nice chunk of this. (8) HUDSON PHIL threw a big time clunker in last, quitting
badly after giving way at 3/4s - good to see him dropping right back in the box, and maybe can rebound for
3rd/4th at a big price? (6) TAM MAJOR A was a big earner Down Under, but a little slow to sharper since
recently arriving in the U.S. - willing to include on the bottom of the exotics. (7) MIKES Z TAM is clearly
off his best form, and drifted so badly in last that he blew an easy 2nd - another that drops right back in,
though, and perhaps can rebound with a better effort. (3) KEYSTONE PHOENIX and (5) MACH IT SO
are both well off form at the moment, and will need to improve significantly to have any real say here.
RACE 5 - (1) SOHO LENNON A sat last for 2 straight weeks (after drawing a pair of 8 holes) but finished
with crisp pace both times - gets to control the action tonight, and somebody will have to come up pretty
good to run him down. (3) CAPOZZO was too far back to threaten in last but the move inside should have
him back in the hunt tonight - include in exotics. (2) DON DOMINGO N is another sharp horse that was
just in a tough spot last week - expect him to be a much more serious player tonight, too. (5) RESPECT
OUR FLAG was well backed in each of his last 2 starts but sat the cones and wasn't a threat in either -
wouldn't be surprised to see him race a bit better tonight, but it's ridiculous that he's listed as the ML choice.
(6) NO ORDINARY MAN was a little disappointing when 3rd two back but did finish well stepping up to
this level in last - maybe can pick up a small piece with a ground saving trip? (8) HIGHLAND TARTAN is
very good right now, but has limited options from Post 8 - racing luck will be needed for even a smaller
piece. (4) VASARI N generally needs to be in easier, and comes into this off a sick scr. - prefer others. (7)
HAN SOLO held a long way in a fast pace before tiring in last, but this is a brutal spot - drops next week
RACE 6 - (6) SPEED MAN N has been wildly inconsistent from week to week but he added a choke plate
for his last start and was full of pace finishing - assuming he's a decent price tonight, he's worth a shot in
this pretty wide open affair. (4) TOOKADIVEOFFDIPPER wasn't at his best last week but he certainly
wasn't bad - been pretty solid most weeks, and we know he can beat even better than these when on his best
game. (5) TIN ROOF RAIDER A never gets any respect in the wagering, but seems to deliver solid efforts
almost every start - definitely one to include in exotics...and even on top, at a big price. (3) GRATIAN
HANOVER pounced on a perfect trip to beat softer last start - might have hesitated to use him facing this
much tougher bunch but the barn has sent out some rocket ships recently, and you really don't want this
rock solid 9YO to beat you out of a good ticket! (1) IDEAL STAR N couldn't grab the track 2 back but that
start is sandwiched between a couple of wins - not sure how he'll handle the class hike, but it wouldn't be a
shock if he was a player here too. (2) REDBANK BLAZE A struggled first over last week but his overall
work has been terrific lately - at least include for 3rd/4th. (7) PATERNITY SUIT A ships in sharp for a live
barn but it's hard to say if he's handy enough to overcome the draw in his local debut - will be hard to win if
he gets away 7th. (8) CAVIART ROCKLAND draws worst off a sick scratch and has been away for 25
days - he does love YR but he's entered in the Borgata (Levy) which starts next week, so a conservative
approach is expected.
RACE 7 - (6) OSTRO HANOVER had an extremely useful tightener last week, racing conservatively from
the back before finishing with good pace for 3rd (first start back off 3 months) - good spot for him to leave
the gate tonight, and he's a proven winner at this level - gets top billing. (3) ROCKAPELO was super for
weeks but landed on an atrocious trip 2 back, then just toured the oval in last after drawing Post 8 again -
gets major post relief now, and the expectation is that he'll be able to be very aggressive - dangerous if he
bounces back to that top recent form. (1) PYRO has been super since the recent purchase (and addition of
Lasix) - wins the 1-5 draw, and we'll see if he can replicate his fine form against this stiffer competition. (4)
TELLITSABB returned to YR and immediately remembered how much he loves racing here (6 for 7, with
broken equipment in the loss) - takes a huge step up here, but he's eligible to the Borgata Series next week,
and we'll find out quickly if he has a chance to be a player (2) CARLISIMO has become a legitimate threat
at this top level, whenever he lands on a good trip - include in exotics. (7) PAT STANLEY N has been
hitting on all cylinders in 2021, but he comes into this off 3 weeks, lands outside, and may just use it as
more of a "prep" for next week's series. (8) SOME WARATAH A was a surprise winner in the "winner's
over" in his first U.S. start, then used a very aggressive drive to beat the Open in his next - he's clearly
overachieved fir his (happy) new connections, but faces a tall task from Post 8 her. (5) FINE DIAMOND
has held his own up at this level, but really needs easier to be a real threat - starts dropping NEXT week
RACE 8 - (3) SPRINGSTEEN had a mixed history here but was solid in 2020, with a 5-3-1-0 record --
been facing tougher (in general) across river lately, and this is the kind of spot where he can usually use his
"brush and crush" style to grab a win...but definitely don't bet the mortgage on him at a short price. (1)
TYGA HANOVER looked good in a bunch of his starts here before heading down to battle in his last few
in the Dover Open - figures to sit a good trip, and is a logical threat if the top one falters. (2) CAVIART
LUCA generally does his winning on the front end - he may have to race from just off the pace tonight, but
he could still come out on top if things go his way. (4) MOONSHINE KISSES has been a bit overmatched
in his 4 starts of 2021, but drops back down here to a level he's beaten before - wouldn't be much of a shock
(8) HEISMAN PLAYER gets the double whammy of both a class hike AND Post 8, but his last win was
truly outstanding, and probably the best mile of any horse that night - would definitely include him in
exotics, assuming he's a good price. (5) THE WALL has looked good for his current connections at The
Meadows, but the classy veteran was losing regularly here (vs. cheaper) prior to that - he's eligible to the
Borgata Series, and tonight will help determine if he really belongs there. (7) KERFORD ROAD A has
been solid for weeks, but is looking at a rough night from all the way out here. (6) ON THE VIRG saw his
3 race win streak end with a thud last week...and faces better tonight!
RACE 9 - (5) WESTERN FAME must have built some major confidence with that Pocono blowout on
2/13 because he came back with a similar blowout at The Swamp the next start...in 1:48.4 - former Levy
champ seems to be peaking at just the right time for this year's series...and will look to head into it with
another win tonight. (2) HEAVENS GAIT was super in his first 2 starts this year but disappointed in his
next pair - was back on his "good" game in last, and may complete the exacta tonight if that same version
shows up. (7) KEEP ON ROCKING A shipped in sharp and continued to race very well in both local tries -
no luck with the draw, but may be able to find a way onto the ticket...at a nice price. (1) TWIN B TUFFEN
UFF is a hard knocker week in/week out, and gets major post relief from last week - logical one to use
underneath. (3) RUNRUNJIMMYDUNN N was overmatched in last week's Open but drops back down to
a much more manageable spot - been sharp for weeks, and an easy trip could land him somewhere on the
ticket. (8) QUATRAIN BLUE CHIP seems unlikely to get involved from this spot but he's very good right
now, and not the worst bomb you could throw in for 3rd/4th, (4) IMSTAYNALIVE hasn't looked sharp
recently - wait for better signs before considering. (6) ARTFUL WAY could use a class drop and better post
- seems up against it from this spot
RACE 10 - (3) EHRMANTROUT was hurt at the start last week when Dube rushed KJ Erich up under him
into the first turn, then pulled with no pace in front of him off turn three - eventually got past that one and
paced a sharp final 3/8ths to just miss 2nd - can get it done here with some smoother sailing. (1) TYMAL
PEACEMAKER was 2nd from the pocket to a razor sharp Walkinshaw in his last local start and tonight's
draw should help him land another easy trip - should be right there from start to finish. (4) KEY ADVISOR
was racing well down at DD and grabbed 2nd to a standout in his YR return - certainly one to include in
exotics. (2) DENVER SEELSTER was repelled by the sharp frontrunning winner 2 back but rebounded
with a "pocket rocket" score in last - can grab another good chunk tonight with another kind journey. (5)
SOHO WALLSTREET A would prefer to be in a bit cheaper but he's been a long form spree, and can land
a small share with some trip luck. (8) WINDSUN RICKY was good for a nice stretch but seems well off
his best right now (while drawing Post 8) - does drop, but will have a hard time finding a way into this. (7)
SILAS SEELSTER has been a steady player one level down, but has never regained his top form - not sure
he can get himself in play from out here. (6) TISADREAM N was no factor at the bottom level here just 4
starts back - looks sharper now, but still sticking with others.