Friday Empire Report

soaofny • April 15, 2021

The Empire Report - Friday, April 16, 2021 - Race Analysis

RACE 1 - (3) THEREISAPACEFORUS was in scary form when he was claimed on 3/26 - failed to function for his new barn (and even landed on the qualifying list), but he was claimed again that night and came back to qualify solidly for his new connections (at Stga) - gets reunited here with the pilot that makes him go best, and we'll gamble that his last mile was just a one-time blip. (2) WAVES OF FIRE A hasn't been "great", but at least he's been competitive every week (unlike many of his previous miles the past couple of years) - very logical player, but not the kind of horse you want to endorse as the 8/5 ML choice. (1) WILD WEST has a well documented, tough recent history at YR (16-0-1-0 the past 2 years), but he almost has to have a chance for a decent piece from this spot, against this bunch. (5) COACH CAL landed on a hopeless trip in his YR return - should be able to beat a few of these, and take home a small piece. (4) PINE BUSH ROCKET always struggled here as a "NW2" horse, but his recent Monti efforts look a little better - minor share? (6) MEETYOUATMIDNIGHT struggled here in 2020 (10-0-0-1), but has been doing good work lately vs. cheaper, at Monti - I'll guess we'll see if he's ready to start tackling the locals again. (7) CINNABAR DRAGON has been away for 25 days after just stopping badly on 3/22 - hard to like his chances of a big mile from Post 7, under those circumstances.


 RACE 2 - Short field, but tough race! (4) LINDSEYS PRIDE shows up in a new barn this week, somewhat surprising because of the excellent success the previous trainer had with him since the purchase in February - nevertheless, it seems like a good spot for him to work out a nice trip, and the price should be fair too - one of several who could take this, depending on how the race goes. (6) OBRIGADO seems to have appreciated the recent 5 weeks off as his last pair at Fhd. (since returning) look very sharp - if he's fast enough off the car to hit the top, it wouldn't be the first time that classmaster has been able to take 'em coast to coast. (3) LINDA LUCKY LINDY wasn't as sharp last week as he has been, but he might benefit here from both the class drop and a potential battle in front of him - could be a late threat, under the right circumstances. (1) LEAN HANOVER really hasn't been particularly sharp lately but he drops, draws the pole, and has a habit of taking advantage of races that "fall apart" - which COULD happen here, even with the short field. (5) WINNERUP always seems to ship in with very tempting NJ lines...but has disappointed locally in all his recent trips over - not willing to take a short price tonight. (2) MOSTINTERESTINGMAN is selected on the bottom, but that's hardly a reflection of his excellent current form (just not sure what kind of trip he'll get against these tougher foes.


 RACE 3 - (1) VICTORIAS MAVERICK is hard to gauge off his last, as there was really only ONE rival chasing him, and that victory couldn't have been easier - was claimed by a hot barn, moves up a notch, but the rail draw should still make him pretty tough again. (4) BLAYDE HANOVER was pretty fortunate to hang on in each of his last 2 wins, but it's hard NOT to respect any horse riding a 4 race win streak - was claimed by a small, but sharp outfit, and it's possible that he'll go home with a FIVE race win streak - just wouldn't take a very short price on him here. (5) ZOEEZ BOY HENRY was winless in '20 but has already taken 4 of 12 starts this year - moves up to face tougher tonight, but should still have a solid say in the outcome. (6) TASTE OF HISTORY is an interesting bomb - lost all chance when pushed FOUR wide past the half last week, but still wasn't terrible - might be able to be in the hunt with some trip luck. (2) MAJOR BUCKS still hasn't clicked since the recent claim - maybe the move back inside will produce a better trip - and a chance for a piece. (3) TAP TAP TAP is the same enigma he's been all his career - hard to ever know what to expect from week to week, and now he's even confusing just in the same race (was LOADED in the pocket last time - popped out looking strong and instantly dropped back to the cones...then tired!) - no clue what he'll do here. (7) PEMBROKE JOEY was claimed from last week's clunker and gets stuck with Post 7 for his new owners - will just watch, for now. (8) MILLIONDOLLAR WAVE shows being claimed, but the previous owner is still listed in the program - expecting a correction, but also expect him to struggle to ever get close from all the way out here.


 RACE 4 - (6) TIGER BARON is probably thrilled to draw Post 6...as he's had Post 7 or 8 in SIX straight starts! Got tired of being stuck in the back and finally was able to leave at PcD last week, coming up 2nd best off a two hole trip - have to believe he'll be aggressively handled in his YR return, and his barn is starting to heat back up - gets top billing. (1) SOHO LEVIATHAN A had a few rough starts but was "sneaky ok" from Post 8 last week, and now moves all the way inside - should be a legit threat tonight. (2) GIVENUPDREAMING finally came up with a big try dropping to the bottom level last week, but still was edged out at the wire - obviously a threat to beat these, but also guaranteed to be way overbet. (3) ELECTR IC WESTERN had been facing better out of town, then was in a no chance spot in his YR return last week - drops again, moves inside, but he's just 1 for 26 over the last 2 years, and a tough one to take on top. (7) HEAVENLY SOUND was a convincing winner over cheaper at Fhd. upon arrival from Canada - he's raced well here in the past, but figures to be hampered by the draw tonight. (4) ROCKNROLL CHARM was a bit sluggish in his only local start and his recent NJ lines look similar - will wait to see some improvement before considering. (5) THUNDER SOME WHERE can be okay when he just saves ground and paces a little on the end - ok for 3rd/4th, if spreading. (8) SECRECY draws worst while already struggling.


RACE 5 - (1) IDEAL COWBOY is the reluctant selection here - he was right there looking strong in the pocket to 3/4s when he made that break last week, and it seems like a good sign that he drops right back in the box - assuming it was just a bad step, he should be pretty strong from this spot...but he'll also likely be overbet, so don't fall in love if the price is too short. (2) ZIGGY SKY perked up considerably dropping to this bottom level last week - loses his favorite pilot (to #1), but still should have a good chance for a nice trip...and big chunk. (4) CHEYENNE REIJANE was grabbing pieces vs. better for quite a while, but racing over his head seems to have dulled him quite a bit - he's at a level where he CAN do some damage....if he can find one of his better efforts. (5) ALEPPO HANOVER usually has one decent move in him - if he times it right, he may be able to grab a piece. (8) MR BIG WIG lagged for too long last week before finding his best stride in the stretch - it was an encouraging try, but he gets stuck outside again and may have to wait for a better spot. (3) LONDON SEELSTER really lagged badly all the way in his last couple and he's facing better tonight - needs to stay more alert early for a chance at even a smaller piece. (6) LACHIE MAGUIRE N has always done well here at YR but his current out of town form is hard to gauge, and he's missed almost 4 weeks - maybe check the tote board for clues? (7) CHACHING HANOVER usually isn't much of a factor from spots like this.


RACE 6 - (4) SWANSEA is worth a play in this week's Open - the draw gives him a good opportunity to leave the gate, and put himself in good position right from the start - not sure if he's quite at 100% right now, but Siegelman should race him aggressively enough to find out. (7) STORMY KROMER didn't just go back to crushing the competition last week, he LOOKED good at all points (not always the case) - if he's feeling just as good tonight, he'll be a handful even from Post 7 (assuming Dube puts him in play). (5) MISSISSIPPI STORM has returned razor sharp from the layoff, charging home to win 2 back, then flying home for 2nd last week - just not sure what trip lies in store for him tonight, and if he'll be close enough turning for home to be right there at the wire. (1) HILL OF A HORSE appreciated a couple of weeks off as that last Chester win looks terrific (even if vs. a bit easier) - should get away close enough to use his late kick for a piece of this. (3) FULL RIGHTS went from the bottom class to the top in a month, and managed to hold his form all the way - may have a little tougher time grabbing a small piece tonight though (trip may be a bit tougher). (2) MAGICAL JOURNEY tailed for a couple of starts but looked a bit better in his last - still prefer others, but keep an eye as to which direction he goes tonight. (6) ARABELLAS CADET seems to have seen her form spree level off a bit, and will coming from way back tonight - bad spot


RACE 7 - (3) PERFECTLY CLOSE is more of a "grinder" so those outside posts are particularly tough on him - gets the post relief he needs here, and doesn't mind being handled aggressively - good chance from this spot. (7) AMERICAN BOY has blasted in tougher spots than this, so it's reasonable to think that Bartlett will at least try to leave with him - last win at Chester suggests that he could do some serious damage here....if he gets off to a quick beginning. (1) MAROMA BEACH has 2 wins and a 2nd this year - and really nothing else at all in the other 7 starts - will almost certainly be handled very aggressively here and while that's worked a few times this year already, it may backfire against these - definitely not worth a short price, on top. (2) FULLBACK doesn't win too often, but he was pretty game in taking his last - step up figures to slow him down a bit, but he may be able to grab a small share, (5) BARBADOS figures to fit well with this bunch off those PA lines, but his new barn isn't really known for their "first timers" - not quite sure what to expect from him. (4) LUCIANO N tried to squeeze out of a shuffle last week then just stopped - willing to just excuse, but he seems to want a bit easier regardless. (6) HESTONS LUCKY CHIP used all of an easy trip just to squeeze out 3rd last time - unlikely to be as fortunate from out here.


 RACE 8 - Good race: (4) PATRIARCH HANOVER finished off his 2020 campaign here with a win, and then a 2nd to Full Rights - took 3 months off, but didn't look great in his first couple of starts back in NJ -- added Lasix for his last, and raced a LOT better - may be the right one in his Hilltop return. (1) WITH OUT A DOUBT actually blew past Meladys Monet 2 back and was on her way to the win when she just blew up on the final turn - came up empty from a tough spot in her next, but clearly the ability is there...whenever she puts it all together - worth a look for sure at 8-1 ML from the pole. (5) BEERTHIRTY K is really developing into a nice trotter (and is another who has benefited from the recent addition of Lasix) - handles any trip that comes his way, and the 4YO would be no shock at all in here. (6) EYE OF A TIGER AS has become steadier since adding trotting hopples recently (he made a series of breaks here prior to that), but his form remains a little choppy from start to start - would give him a look IF the price was long enough. (3) THE LAST CHAPTER just doesn't finish well enough most weeks, but his gate speed usually puts him in the hunt for a good piece - possibly more of the same tonight. (2) NEW HEAVEN almost pulled off the 11-1 upset from the pocket last week (vs. #7), but came up a little short - faces a tougher field now, and may struggle a bit. (7) AFTER ALL PAUL won his last pair vs. cheaper, taking the lead both times and never relinquishing it - moves way up and way outside now, and figures to be too far back to threaten


RACE 9 - (3) VELOCITY KOMODO was making a big move 4 back when he broke on the final turn - won easily in his next, and paced solid final halves from impossible spots in his last pair - lands in a soft NW7500 division tonight, and should be able to find a way to handle these. (4) IDEAL WHEEL is a little cheap and a bit inconsistent...but he's thrown a couple of efforts that would give him a decent shot at a good piece in this overall suspect field. (2) CHANGE STRIDE N is just 1 for 25 here (since 2019) but he's picked up some pieces lately, and may be able to pull that off again tonight. (5) BELTANE A just seems to be going through the motions each week, never really threatening while eventually rallying well enough for a piece - he can do the same tonight....but is hard to consider on top as the 2-1 ML favorite. (6) GHOST DANCE wasn't nearly as sharp last week as he had been in his prior few, but he's eligible to rebound with a better mile - include in exotics. (8) DEEDENUTO A has been getting a bit better every week, but the barn isn't known for their aggressive 8 hole tries - keep an eye for next time. (1) WE THINK ALIKE has been much better lately, but still just for smaller pieces in basement claimers - rail helps, but still prefer others. (7) DARK ENERGY N does his damage one level down...and from much better posts


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