The Empire Report - Monday, May 24, 2021 - Race Analysis
RACE 1 - (3) JUST PLAIN LOCO shipped in very sharp and might have been a winner last week had he
found room in the stretch - goes for a new barn tonight but if he stays just as sharp, he'll have a chance to
take the opener. (5) MARINER SEELSTER finally grabbed his first win since the 2/13 claim, taking full
advantage of a :57.4 half (and had the top choice trapped behind him) - the 12YO may be able to take
another, but won't be offering much value for the top slot. (4) REAL LUCKY was pretty good 2 back but
lost all chance in last when he had to abort his leave attempt - may try for a quick start again tonight, and
can be right in the hunt if he gets one. (2) GUMPTION hasn't had any luck in his 3 local tries but the trips
haven't been great - goes for a new barn now, and maybe his luck will change. (6) ELRAMA seemed a bit
overmatched against the 30s last week but drops back down to the level he beat 2 back - biggest issue is the
draw, as he lands outside his main rivals, and may not get all that great a trip from Post 6. (7) BRACKLEY
BEACH probably needs to be in a cheaper spot, where he can race on/near the lead - pass this week. (8)
TIME OUT IM TIRED moves out to Post 8 after tiring badly from a first over trip from the rail in last -
wait for a better spot. (1) LANAS DESIRE needs to a least show a "functional" line before getting a look
RACE 2 - (2) TOWNLINE FLIGHT wasn't bad when 4th in his local debut (5/4) - added Lasix for his next
at Pocono but caught a fast mile and never got close - returned to YR last week and kept working hard to
hang in as best he could behind a free-wheeling leader, then was able to rally by late when that leader tired
in the latter stages - switch to Brennan gives him a good chance to take another. (1) ROCK THE NITE
came up 2nd best the last 2X he tried to cut the mile - goes for a new barn tonight and not sure if he'll be
back on the lead or in the pocket...but he'll have a legitimate chance either way. (6) MARTY MONKHOUS
ER A is very solid at this level and he moves to a high % barn for tonight - gets a poor draw, but he's worth
using as long as the price is decent. (3) FOX VALLEY INFERNO was razor sharp for weeks before finally
going off form back in March - been sort of in and out lately, but willing to use underneath in the gimmicks
(5) MAJOR CROCKER A came back in solid form after taking 3 months off - not sure he can beat these,
but he can take home another small piece. (8) P H KENNY was used very hard when 2nd three back, then
had tough trips in his last pair - looking at another rough journey from Post 8, and may need to wait for a
better spot. (7) SCRAPPIN GOLD used a perfect trip to pick up a 2nd two back but failed to get involved
in his last, and may suffer that same fate tonight. (4) WESTERN BEACHBOY seems overmatched here
RACE 3 - (2) FLAMING FLUTTER N has gone some pretty big miles since coming to the U.S. but the
mega-classy import has also gone some major clunkers, and missed time on several occasions - frigid cold
barn finally had a winner here last week, and also had one in NJ this weekend - maybe the old veteran can
give them another? (4) PRAIRIE PANTHER is a classy horse but is still prone to the occasional miscue,
even after 107 career starts - he has won here before, and would be no surprise at all off last week's sharp
Tioga score. (6) IMSTAYNALIVE is razor sharp right now - the class jump really isn't a concern, but it's
hard to predict what kind of trip he'll get tonight from Post 6 - if he's close turning for home, he'll be a late
threat, for sure. (1) POINTOMYGRANSON got too hot on the front end last week and was empty by the
time they turned for home - leaning to others, but wouldn't be shocked to see him come out on top if Zeron
can get him to relax a bit more. (3) FIZZING N just missed at this level 2 back and is a very solid player
against this type - not a bad one to consider if the price drifts up high enough. (8) FOREVER FAV has done
excellent work for his current connections but vs. cheaper - will be hard to overcome Post 8 against this
much tougher group. (5) JACKAMINO definitely seems a bit overmatched here - wait for an easier spot.
(7) MOTIVE HANOVER has been racing ok ,but doesn't figure to be able to get involved tonight
RACE 4 - (1) CAROLINA MAGIC has been pretty good for a while, though hurt by a bunch of tough
spots - did pick up a win from the rail 3 starts back, and his barn is going very strong at the moment - solid
chance from this spot. (2) BAKERSFIELD showed how sharp he was when he was able to charge home to
win from off the pace on 5/3 (usually not his preferred style of racing) - landed on the judges list when
brutally parked from Post 8 in his next, but came back to re-qualify in outstanding fashion for his new barn
- major threat tonight. (8) RECORD YEAR will need a lot of trip luck to succeed from out here but he IS
sharp enough to be a player if Holland is able to improve position at the start - decent bomb to throw onto
your tickets. (4) MISSISSIPPI RABBIT would look better in a bit cheaper, but might be shipping in sharp
enough to do some damage with the right trip (he has two 2nds from 3 local tries in 2021). (5) ROCK ON
LINE needs to have a contested pace up front to be able to use his potent late kick - if you see the race
shaping up that way, he's one you'll want to include. (6) CHRISTEN ME N went a huge effort 2 back when
parked the whole way...but then faltered in his next when able to make the front end - the 13YO obviously
isn't as reliable as he used to be, but still capable of a big mile at any time. (3) IAMMRBRIGHTSIDE N is
sharp enough to be a player, but his low YR win % makes him a tough one to use on top. (7) BARBADOS
was very well backed in last and pounced on a perfect trip to score the victory - not sure he'll be able to get
close enough to be a threat tonight, though.
RACE 5 - (1) PICARD A exploded home to score at 14-1 off the claim and clearly impressed a few people
as he beat the same class, the next week....as the 8/5 favorite - loses Stratton to #7 tonight but still remains a
big threat to make it 3 in a row (with Kakaley at the lines). (4) UPTOWN FUNK has hit board in all 4 starts
since arriving and is racing very well for a young trainer that's been doing fine work, with limited stock -
gets Bartlett back in the bike tonight, and is surely worth a good look at that 9-1 ML price! (7) LYONS
WILLIAM was just handled way too unaggressively in a lot of starts earlier this year - finally his drivers
started to put him in better positions, and he comes into tonight riding a 3 race win streak, while continuing
to climb the class ladder - has a chance, even from Post 7. (3) TREASURE MACH could probably benefit
from a class drop but he's still sharp enough for a chance at a piece here - willing to throw in for 3rd. (2)
CHANGE STRIDE N has upped his game since the recent claim and draws well here - may be in a little
too tough, but we'll find out tonight. (5) PROVACATIVEPRINCEN really does his best racing on the lead,
but he'll probably have to pay a price for that privilege tonight - just doesn't feel like a great spot. (6) REVE
LRY rallied from too far back last week and now draws outside for a new barn - chance for a piece if things
get testy up front. (8) MY MIND IS MADEUP raced well in both starts since changing hands, but draws
Post 8 up in class tonight, and may have to wait for a better spot to be a player again.
RACE 6 - (1) OUR MAX PHACTOR N had a late winter streak where he won 3 of 4 starts, all on the front
end, with the last one being from Post 8, in this class - three no-prayer spots after missing a month but his
last effort wasn't bad at all, and now he drops AND draws the pole, in a very modest NW15000 field - big
threat to wire these. (6) ALTA LEROY N is very good right now, and capable of handling the class hike -
the real concern is the post, and the assumption is that Lachance will probably race him from behind...but
IF he takes a shot and can improve position at the start, his chances to be right there late would go way up.
(2) MARK WITHA K probably needs to be in a little easier to be a serious player but the possibility of a
very nice trip here does exist, and that could help him land a spot somewhere in the exotics. (7) ELWELL
showed up on his best game despite the 6 month layoff and delivered the 26-1 shocker right off the bench -
you know what they say about "missing the wedding"! (3) WARDAN EXPRESS A is one of several from
this barn that has seen their game pick up lately - can't see him winning, but draws well enough for a
chance at a minor share. (4) SOHO LEVIATHAN A has hit board in 4 straight (1 win) but vs. cheaper -
looking at only a smaller piece with these. (5) BILBO HANOVER came up with a form-reversing 14-1
upset 3 back, then hit board in the next two -- may find these a little too tough, even in his good current
form. (8) FAST N FIRST was a good 2 and 3YO but missed his entire 4YO season - was doing work to
start off his 5YO year but then finished up the track from Post 7 when he arrived here on 5/3 - would prefer
to just observe from Post 8 tonight.
RACE 7 - (5) MOONSHINE KISSES shipped in off a bad date two back and was able to easily outkick the
1/5 frontrunner for the victory - stepped up to the Open off that win and gave LEONIDAS A all he could
handle, coming up just a head short in a hot 1:51.1 mile - he's in career from right now, and has earned top
billing for tonight. (3) SPEED MAN N is a good bomb here - had been very sharp for weeks before getting
stuck in the back with no chance last week, before making contact with THE REAL ONE in the stretch and
going offstride - big chance to outperform that 20-1 ML price. (8) ROLLWITHPAPAJOE has been very
sharp for weeks, and has blossomed into a very nice 5YO - took off the gate the last few times he drew
outside but COULD become a threat if Bongiorno rolls the dice and sends him out of there. (4) FINE
DIAMOND somehow got beat 3 starts back but the mile before that AND the two miles after (all wins)
were outstanding - not normally a serious threat up at this level, but his current form is hard to deny. (7)
RAUKAPUKA RULER N is yet another that draws outside but who could quickly become a player with a
quick start - if you think he might leave, definitely consider him for your tickets. (1) GALANATE A shook
free a little too late last week to have any real shot at the win, but was still right there 2nd - he's unproven at
this level, but he should be able to give a good account of himself with the rail draw. (2) CAVIART LUCA
is feeling mighty good these days, but the move up in class may slow him down a bit...especially if he
doesn't get to cut this mile. (6) OSTRO HANOVER is a solid player against this type and pretty good right
now - may find himself a little too far back to threaten, however.
RACE 8 - (1) SHERIFF N had a bunch of impossible draws in the Borgata but finished 3rd (by a neck) the
one time he started from the pole - won as the 1/5 choice in his first start dropping out of the series, but did
lose at the same price in his next...of course the horse that beat him that night (MOONSHINE KISSES)
came back to almost beat Leonidas A in his next...so we can forgive that loss - chance to make amends. (3)
SHADOW CAT is now 3 for 6 at Yonkers this year, and the losses all came from Posts 7 and 8 - he's more
than proven that he belongs here, and it would be no surprise to see him knock off the top choice. (6)
TWIN B TUFFENUFF is certainly as good as the top pair, but he's at a significant post disadvantage vs.
both - he's playable, but only if the price offsets the draw. (2) GROOVY JOE was a sharp winner here in
his first start back as a 4YO but hasn't been able to win since (and weakened to 4th in his last) - suppose he
could rebound with a big mile here, but he seems better used underneath, for now. (4) WINDSUN RICKY
is very solid right now, but Siegelman does opt for #3 - definitely one for exotics. (8) MICKY GEE N may
be sharpening each start, but he faces a major uphill battle from this spot - hard to imagine the race falling
apart enough for him to win from out here. (5) RUNRUNJIMMYDUNN N steps up off a nice first over
win but this is a much tougher crew - probably will need a drop before he's a serious player again. (7)
HEAVENS GAIT throws some good miles at times - but not usually from a spot like this.
RACE 9 - (1) BETTER MEMORIES drops and draws the pole and that means he'll be on the lead tonight -
the last 3 times he got to cut the mile, it produced 2 wins and a close 2nd...the one to beat. (4) MIGHTY
SANTANA N is just 1 for 11 here this year but he's raced well in almost all of his starts - should be a very
live player if the trip goes his way. (3) HIGHLAND TARTAN was off 3 weeks to his last (sick scratch) but
still produced a sharp first over effort to be 3rd - likes to win races, and does have a chance here. (5) LEVI
NE has been a very reliable Yonkers performer, and handles any kind of trip - this is the first time he's had
to face accomplished OLDER foes, however, so we'll see if he can be just as sharp with these - don't take
too short a price if he's your choice. (2) SANTAFES COACH really needs to be in a bit cheaper for a
chance at the top prize, but he's sharp enough to take home a decent chunk with an easy enough trip. (7)
QUATRAIN BLUE CHIP definitely fits with these but it's hard to imagine him landing on a good trip from
this spot - will need lots of trip luck to grab anything more than a minor share. (6) DANCIN DRAGON
comes into this riding a 3 race winning streak....but all have come on the lead or in the pocket, and against
much easier - seems pretty vulnerable tonight. (8) KINNDER JACKSON has done good work here in the
past but lands in a seemingly impossible spot for his Hilltop return
RACE 10 - (3) PYRO took a nose loss 2 back at Chester (to #2) then came back with a sharp wire to wire
1:49.3 score - he's won 4 of 12 Yonkers starts this year, and raced well in several others - gets the narrow
edge for tonight. (2) SAN DOMINO A beat the top choice at Chester on 5/9 then never varied from 10th in
his next try at The Swamp - he's not the most reliable horse on the planet but when on his best game, he's a
major threat to beat these - hard to leave him off the ticket. (5) THE REAL ONE hasn't been a threat to win
any races recently, but his miles have been generally ok, vs. better - if they mix things up a bit, he would be
eligible to make his presence felt at the end. (1) PEACE OUT POSSE has raced well in almost all of his
local tries, but primarily vs. a bit easier - he's also been away for three weeks since his last start, and that's
definitely a concern - wouldn't shock, but still leaning to others. (4) KERFORD ROAD A's last start was
better than it looks on paper (tough trip), and his overall form is solid - he may be a little cheap, though,
and will most likely be looking at a smaller share. (6) IDEAL JIMMY would normally be worth a look at
this level but just doesn't seem to be on his game right now - will just watch, for now. (8) PERFECTLY
CLOSE has been sharp for weeks, but it's hard to see a way for him to get into the race from out here. (7)
FLYING FINN N has been away for 3 weeks and lands Post 7 - wait for a better scenario
RACE 11 - (1) SHNEONUCRZYDIAMND A got beat at the bottom level two back but it was by a razor
sharp horse, and it was a sizzling 1:51.3 mile - charged home from too far back into a fast final half in his
next (for 2nd), and will probably get to control the action tonight - the one to beat in the finale. (2)
CAPTAIN NASH sipped in sharp from PcD and went a big mile, doing all the hard work first over only to
get nailed by a pair that followed him - legit threat in his current form. (5) SKIP TO MY LOU was "sneaky
sharp" (NW20000) in his return from PPk and the public hammered him down to 5/2 off the class drop last
week - left well for good position, but was killed by a quitter in front of him on the final turn and lost too
much ground on the top trio - fits perfectly with these, but the top two have a distinct post edge tonight. (7)
HERRICKROOSEVELT N gets some class relief but draws outside again and will probably have to just
get into the flow and hope for something good to happen - use underneath in tris and Supers. (3) SILAS
SEELSTER's only win this year came with a perfect tri, vs. cheaper - minor share only. (4) BETTING
EXCHANGE seems a bit overmatched again but the good news is that after tonight, a win drops off the
bottom of his card...and some class relief is on the horizon. (6) IM BENICIO A was massively overdriven
in his last and paid for it late - waiting for better signs before hopping back onto his team. (8) REDBANK
BLAZE A was 2nd in his last pair, cutting the mile one week and sitting the pocket in the other - won't have
that luxury from Post 8, however.