Monday Empire Report

soaofny • May 10, 2021

The Empire Report - Monday, May 10, 2021 - Race Analysis

RACE 1 - Super-competitive opener: (6) P H KENNY was razor sharp winning 2 and 3 back then raced big again in last, even though 2nd best after being used very hard throughout the mile - moves from one high % to another after last week's claim, and should actually be a decent price in this wide open affair - one of many possible winners. (5) LYONS WILLIAM broke a streak of bad luck trips with that win 4 back, then was a very sharp winner again in his last - should be able to blast hard from this spot but he'll be doing it for a new barn...so we'll see if he can maintain his level of sharpness. (7) CENTURY FURY has raced well in his local starts (6-2-1-1) and drops in for an appropriate tag tonight - the big concern is the draw but at 9-1 ML, he's quite playable! (4) MAJOR CROCKER A was pretty good last week off the layoff, used early and still pacing well late - he'll be a nice price tonight, and couldn't blame anybody looking to include him. (3) FOX VALLEY INFERNO saw a long form spree end on 5/22, then struggled for a few more starts - has started to turn things back around though, and is definitely a threat in his current form. (2) SCRAPPIN GOLD hasn't been sharp enough vs. cheaper, so he figures to struggle a bit with tonight's step up in class. (1) CHANGE STRIDE N is just 1 for 28 here (last 3 years) so he seems like a pretty questionable claim for $25K - we'll see how his (new) high % barn does with him. (8) BAKERSFIELD showed last week that he can win from off the pace...but will likely be coming from way too far back tonight


RACE 2 - (1) PROVOCATIVEPRINCEN basically cut his own mile in the pocket last week as Lets Have Another rattled off FFA fractions in front of him - was no match for the top one but did beat the others by about 6 lengths....may be able to take these wire to window from this spot. (2) LACHIE MAGUIRE N came to life 3 back with a wake up win at the bottom level - stepped up a notch and took his next, then was "sneaky ok" at this $40K level in last, hitting the wire decently from an impossible spot - may just sit the two hole tonight...and that would give him a shot if the top one falters. (3) ROCK ON LINE really struggled chasing last week's blazing pace but after looking like he'd back through the field, he came back on late to be 4th - overall form has been outstanding since the claim - if he's within shouting distance at the top of the lane, he'll have a chance to rally by late. (6) DENVER SEELSTER has been going good miles week after week since late last year - tough spot tonight, though, and seems destined for yet another smaller piece. (4) OUR CORELLI N has been solid since the March barn change but shows no WINS - prefer others for the top slots. (5) TREASURE MACH has been very good for some time but may be pushing it at this level....especially with tonight's draw (outside 4 solid rivals).


RACE 3 - (5) CRUZING HILL shipped in razor sharp from NJ and went a big mile in his YR debut, losing by only a nose despite a tough trip - benefited from some good fortune in last but still exploded home when able to shake free to the top of the lane - it would help if Bongiorno could at least get in front of the lazy BARBADOS at the start but he'll be tough tonight with any decent journey. (6) TWIN B SPEEDO didn't win either start for this barn in April so we'll consider it a good sign that they re-claimed him last week - faces a somewhat iffy trip from Post 6, but can be a big threat if he lands on a decent enough journey. (3) UPTOWN FUNK tired a bit from the pocket in his local debut but just missed from off the pace in his last (right behind the top choice) - sharp enough now for a chance to take this IF he lands on the right trip. (2) GIVENUPDREAMING clearly had some issue 2 back but rebounded nicely in his last with a hard used 3rd place finish - if he's a good price, he might be worth including on your tickets. (1) SOLID ASA ROCK A was an opportunistic (miracle?) winner 2 back, but a sharp 2nd in last suggests that the victory was not just a fluke - draws best, but does face better...possible. (4) BARBADOS charged home for 2nd in his YR debut 3 back but failed to match that effort in his last couple - needs things to fall apart up front for a chance to rally late. (7) RECORD YEAR saw his 3 race win streak snapped in last when forced to deal with a tougher trip against tougher foes - won't be any easier from Post 7 tonight. (8) ROCK THE NITE was unable to overcome Post 8 2 starts back and may have that same difficulty tonight


RACE 4 - JUSTASEC N qualified superbly (in NJ) in his first US try and was sent off at 2-1 vs. Nicholas Beach (and a few other sharp performers) in his first start - was too far back to threaten but did pace in 1:49.1 while rallying for 5th - was very good again in his next when 2nd to the sharp Poseidon Seelster (1:49.1 mile), and now makes his Hilltop debut - seems like he can just sit relatively close to what figures to be a hot pace, and have every chance to pace on by when called upon. (3) SOHO LENNON A had some issue 3 back but has been fine in his last couple, including last week's sharp 2nd to the stickout front end winner - should be a solid player again tonight. (4) SOME WARATAH A was a surprise winner here in his first U.S. start then took another (in the Open) the following week - no chance 8 hole after that was followed by 4 good miles out of town (2 wins, 2 seconds), and he looms a legit player returning to Yonkers tonight. (5) LETS HAVE ANOTHER shipped in showing some good looking speed tries vs. lesser at Dover but immediately took to the local surface, rattling off a scorching 1:51.4 blowout over softer - it's possible he can just outrun these as well...but it'll be a LOT tougher than last week. (1) TOOKADIVEOFFDIPPER seems to do his better work vs. a bit easier these days - rail does give him a chance for a piece, though. (7) BETTOR MEMORIES still throws some big ones, but generally in easier spots than this. (6) OUR MAX PHACTOR N needs a drop -- and he'll get one next week


RACE 5 - (2) TYGA HANOVER continued to overachieve in the Borgata Series, seemingly overmatched at the start but then continuing to pick up good pieces week after week - took 3 weeks off after the final leg (where he was a close 3rd behind Backstreet Shadow and Western Joe), then came up with an excellent 1st over 2nd to a sharp, classy winner at Chester - we'll see if tonight's class drop can get him to the winner's circle. (3) MIKES Z TAM looked good here recently with a couple of wins and a 2nd vs. a bit cheaper - draws well returning from PA, and has a solid chance to land a good piece here. (5) BRONX SEELSTER won 2X over cheaper before the Borgata but then struggled in that series - was freshened up then qualified very nicely at PcD (American Courage was 2nd), but it's hard to pick a 2-1 ML favorite on top from a barn that's just 2 for 66 since the start of March. (4) NOCTURNAL BLUECHIP was a little disappointing when 3rd (off the drop) 2 back, then was too far back to threaten in last - jury still out on this guy. (6) EHRMAN TROUT was a bit off form for a couple of starts but bounced back with a much better effort in last - would have been picked higher up if not for tonight's outside draw. (1) IM SOME GRADUATE was freshened up for a couple of months but that ugly looking qua. doesn't inspire much confidence - barn wouldn't send him out if he was bad as that line looks, but he's still tough to play right now. (7) SKIP TO MY LOU seems to have really blossomed at PPk this year...but the terrible draw figures to limit him in his return to NY


RACE 6 - (2) SHERIFF N was in mostly no-chance spots throughout the Borgata Series so it's hard to really judge his performance (he did just miss to Western Joe and Rockapelo the one time he drew the pole) - clearly he appreciated last week's major class relief, winning easily after quarter moving to command - steps up a notch tonight but will probably get to control the actin again...giving him a decent chance to take another. (4) GALANTE A moves up out of the age restricted "NW8PM" class after taking his 4th in a row last week - has shown that he can handle any trip that comes his way, and it would be no surprise if he was able to remain successful against classy, older foes as well. (5) HERRICKROOSEVELT N recently went from the bottom class to the Open in just 5 starts, holding his fine form beautifully all along the way - was an excellent 1st over 3rd in last week's Preferred, and the right trip will put him right on the wire with these too. (1) MOONSHINE KISSES last 4 local starts produced 2 wins, a 2nd to runaway PYRO, then a little disappointing 3rd at the Preferred level - returns off a pair of Stga. 2nds, but he's missed 3 weeks and may be a tad short against a few of these very sharp rivals. (3) ALBERGO HANOVER has sharpened nicely in recent weeks, and steps up tonight off a pair of wins over softer - willing to include underneath. (6) WINDS UN RICKY is back on the upswing, though too far back to have any chance in last - maybe can work out an easy enough trip here for a small piece? (8) SHADOW CAT scored very sharp front end scores in his last pair but faces the tough combination of both a class hike and a move to Post 8 here - not sure he can overcome tonight's tough spot. (7) KEYSTONE PHOENIX hung badly off the perfect trip in last, and now gets stuck all the way out here - wait for a better scenario.


RACE 7 - (3) ROLLWITHPAPAJOE accepted his fate from Post 8 last week and never varied from last - prior to that he did win 3 of 4 starts, and the move all the way inside to Post 3 should allow Bongiorno to handle this sharp 5YO a lot more aggressively - major chance tonight, but don't expect that 9/2 ML price. (8) RAUKAPUKA RULER N went a few good miles in the Borgata, picking up a pair of 2nds along with a 3rd in the Consolation - relished the class drop in last and was an easy front end winner in the Open - will need some major luck from Post 8, but still worth using as long as the price is right. (7) SPEED MAN N continues to race well every week but gets no luck with tonight's draw - the flip side is that he'll be a very juicy price here, and he IS sharp enough to do some damage (with some trip luck) - definitely a good bomb to include, if spreading. (1) MICKY GEE N got the job done last week in his 2nd start off the layoff but it was vs. much cheaper, and he wasn't close to his best - he's eligible to be that much sharper in start number 3, but he'll need to be a lot better to beat these. (4) OSTRO HANOVER used the combination of a class drop and the front end to score as the favorite last week - not impossible here, but prefer a few others for the top spot. (5) MACS JACKPOT has been away for 3 weeks since the Borgata Series ended and may not be at his best here - willing to throw in for 3rd. (6) THE REAL ONE is ok right now, but will need things to fall apart up front to have any late say. (2) ESCAPETOTHEBEACH seems a little too cheap for these


RACE 8 - (2) HEISMAN PLAYER just missed at this level on 2/15 then crushed better one start later - had been holding his own for several starts up at the NW20000 level before a couple of lesser tries in his last pair, but tonight's class drop should definitely perk him up a bit - hardly a "cinch", but does deserve top billing. (5) TIN ROOF RAIDER A really benefited from a smart inside steer last week, charging home in the stretch to power by cheaper - this level is well within his comfort zone too, and another strong try is expected. (1) TIGER BARON paced evenly from a no chance spot in last after a win and 2nd in his prior 2 - moves all the way inside, and should be able to be an up close player from start to finish. (3) PICARD A has a mixed bag of starts since shipping in from Ohio - on his best he can go with these, so we'll see if his new barn can coax that mile out of him. (6) HEAVENLY SOUND is solid right now, but a bit on the cheaper side - outside draw won't help, either. (8) MISTER REBBILY A just wasn't at his best last week and now gets stuck with Post 8 - can still beat a bunch of these, but may need an easier spot before we see his best again. (4) FULLBACK can be fairly unpredictable from week to week but even his best would likely come up a bit short against a few of these, (7) BIG BAD BILL draws poorly off a lame scratch


RACE 9 - (2) CAVIART LUCA may not seem too scary in the Opens anymore but the 10YO is still a handful down at this level - was a sharp 2 move winner in this class 3 starts back and we'll give him the edge tonight, even though there are a couple of very legit foes in here. (3) CAN BE PERFECT is a player at this level virtually every week, and tonight figures to be no exception - the right trip could make him a winner. (5) BLANK STARE was helped a bit by circumstances but did win the NYSS Final here last Sept. (for 3YO C&G) - his 2 starts back at 4 look very promising, and he'd be no surprise at all. (6) QUALITY BUD landed on a poor trip last week but was still pacing well late - a live trip tonight would give him a shot to be right there at a good price...include him in exotics. (1) AMERICAN BOY N always seems to ship in with impressive out of town lines...before disappointing locally - maybe the rail can help him get a better result? (7) TOWNLINE ALL GOOD raced well in both local tries but lands a tough post here and may have to settle for a minor award. (4) RUNRUNJIMMYDUNN N does his best work with a bit easier - maybe 3rd/4th? (8) ORILLIA JOE seems damned if he leaves....and damned if he doesn't


RACE 10 - (2) WALKINSHAW N couldn't overcome a very tough 8 hole trip 2 back but did pace home nicely off a conservative steer in last - moves inside now and might prove best....although there are a few other possibilities in here. (1) ITALIAN DELIGHT N landed on a poor trip in his YR return but really wasn't any good anyway - he's MUCH better than that, and may bounce back quickly with the move to the pole. (5) FINE DIAMOND's recent efforts have been all over the charts - IF he shows up on his "A Game" here, he's more than capable of beating these...but that's a big if! (4) LISBURN made a break 3 back but has been in fine form other than that - could add some value to the exotics. (3) TALBOTCREEKWHISKEY pulled off the 22-1 upset two back with a form-reversing victory - followed that up with an ok try at Tioga, and definitely could land a piece in here too. (7) FIZZING IN kept coming last week and took a tough nose beat on the wire - the issue tonight is the draw, and he may struggle to overcome it. (6) HOT DEUCE was able to just hang on last week despite racing off a sick scratch - moves up in class, lands outside, and may not have quite the same success against these. (8) VILLIAM is another that seems to have improved dramatically for this barn down in Florida - have to just pass and watch from all the way out here, though.

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