The Empire Report - Monday, March 22, 2021 - Race Analysis
RACE 1 - (1) CINNABAR DRAGON had a rough patch for a few months but served notice 2 back that he
may be ready to turn things around...then followed that mile up with last week's front end, jogburger score -
faces a better bunch tonight, but may be sharp enough to repeat with the benefit of the rail draw. (3) ROCK
ON LINE raced well in both recent local starts but was a little too far in each of them - gets a better draw
now, and may be able to beat these with a better journey - worth using. (2) LANAS DESIRE is a bit hard to
gauge - he's probably facing better tonight than he was in PA but he's clearly sharp, and moves to a new
barn that sent out a couple of solid players here last week - willing to include in exotics. (4) KEPT UNDER
WRAPS A would probably prefer to be in a bit cheaper but he draws well and a good trip could land him a
piece of this - include underneath. (5) MCARDLES LIGHTNING lost any real chance after a brief shuffle
last start, and that was on the heels of a pair of front end scores - goes for a new barn tonight, and it's hard
to say how he'll be - mixed feelings about using him at a fairly short price. (1) IWONTDOTHATAGAIN
probably fits ok class-wise but makes his YR debut off a sick scr. (and bad date) and we'll just watch, for
now. (7) DRINKA BEER threw a major (unexpected) clunker last week, and now gets stuck outside for his
new barn - not sure he'll be able to get himself into the hunt. (8) PEMBROKE JOEY failed to menace when
he drew Post 8 (2 starts back) and faces that same uphill climb tonight - wait for a better spot.
RACE 2 - (6) MAGRITTE is on some kind of form spree, and showed last week that he can be just as
good for a different barn - goes for another new outfit tonight but if he's as good as he's been since 2/5, he'll
have a good chance to get it done, even from Post 6. (3) FOX VALLEY INFERNO beat the top choice 2
back but was worn down by him in last (finishing 3rd) - comes into this with an amazing 9-6-1-1 Yonkers
slate, and has to be seen as the main danger...as he goes for his FIFTH different barn in his last 6 starts! (7)
PROVOCATIVEPRINCEN draws horribly and has been a notch below the top ones lately but he has been
known to throw a loop at the start sometimes, and he'll definitely be a nice price - worth considering. (8)
EGOMANIA was no good for a LONG time but a month off at the end of 2020 did him a world of good
and he's been terrific in his 4 starts since coming back - unfortunately lands yet another horrible post, and
this is a good field - probably looking at a smaller piece this week. (1) CHEYENNE REIJANE has been ok
for some time, but definitely needs to be in a little easier for a shot at the big prize - ok for a minor share,
though. (2) ROCK N TONY has done good work since the recent barn change but is currently a question
mark against this type - suppose we'll learn more after tonight. (5) CLASSIC PRO has been mostly solid
for a top barn but does seem to need to be in a bit easier. (4) FIREBALL hasn't been sharp lately
RACE 3 - MGM BORGATA PACING SERIES - (1) RODEO ROCK had an extremely disappointing 2020
season and looked like he had really dropped a few notches...but then he rattled off a sharp 1:50 front end
score on 2/27, and looked like his old high-end self in Round 1 of this series, charging home for 3rd to LET
IT RIDE N, beaten only a length - feels like a good time to hop on his bandwagon. (5) BACKSTREET
SHADOW was 2nd in the first round but it definitely wasn't his sharpest effort - makes his 2nd try off the
layoff now, and is eligible to be even sharper...which would make him a dangerous player. (6) SHNITZLE
DOSOMETHIN had a combination of an unlucky trip along with a less than stellar drive....and that resulted
in a tired, 6th place finish - he's obviously a lot better than that, and a better journey should have him back
in legitimate contention tonight - tough draw, though. (3) PAT STANLEY N was an "ok" 3rd in the first leg,
but most of his barnmates had terrible weeks (so HIS effort was actually pretty good, all things considered)
- may be sharper tonight, and certainly one to consider underneath. (2) NO EASY DAY was disappointing
last week, failing to rally at all after shaking free from a brief shuffle - we'll see if he bounces back with a
sharper mile tonight. (4) RAUKAPUKA RULER N wasn't bad from a tough spot in last, but he'll need to
be even better now if he hopes to contend for a meaningful piece. (7) IDEAL JIMMY seems damned if he
leaves, and doubly damned if he doesn't - just a terrible spot for him
RACE 4 - MGM BORGATA PACING SERIES - (soft division, and a wide open race) - (6) WESTERN
JOE was just "steady" last week, but he was only a length behind three horses that would all be
favored-to-heavily favored in here - not sure what trip he'll get from Post 6, but he can definitely beat these
if it's a good one. (3) ROCKAPELO gets a pass for those two 8 hole tries but he was no good on 3/8 either -
did have some pace finishing from an impossible spot in last, though, so maybe he's headed back in the
right direction - this is a crew he CAN beat, if close to his top form. (5) AFLAME HANOVER flashed
good ability in stakes as a youngster but struggled through his 4YO season - wasn't terrible from the back
last week, and maybe Dunn will be able to get him into the hunt tonight - decent value horse to consider.
(2) MACS JACKPOT hadn't been looking that great but did put in a much better effort with a new trainer
listed in last - if he can build off that improved try, perhaps he can have a big say in the outcome tonight?
(1) TYGA HANOVER has been very good for some time, and last week's first over effort was excellent -
still not convinced he's a "series horse", but he does have the rail in a pretty beatable group - possible. (7)
TELLITSABB has plenty of talent and loves Yonkers - he's still unproven at this level, however, and gets
stuck outside again - he'll be a nice price, so you may want to include him, if spreading a bit. (4) YAYAS
HOT SPOT is very ambitiously placed with these on his best day...and he's not close to that right now
RACE 5 - (4) KEEP ON ROCKING A shipped in sharp from RcR and has remained razor sharp in his 4
local starts, grabbing a win, two 2nds and a 3rd (despite some less than stellar trips) - hard to predict the
way this race will go but IF it's to his liking, he may be able to grab another victory. (3) HEAVENS GAIT
started the year with a pair of blowout wins over cheaper - threw duds in his next couple but rebounded 3
back with a nice effort and has been very sharp in his last pair as well - traded decisions with the top choice
the past 2 weeks, and a similar effort will put him right there again. (7) PYRO looks mighty appealing at
10-1 ML - made a break in last after getting caught wide leaving but he's been super for weeks, and some
trip luck tonight would make him a big threat, once again. (2) BO MACH does his damage when he works
out easy trips - if he's able to step around #1 and establish an easy, up close journey, he can be around at the
end for a good piece of this. (6) ROLLWITHPAPAJOE would prefer to be in a little easier but the right trip
could put him in contention for a nice piece here - barn is too hot right now to ignore any live horses they
send out. (8) SPRINGSTEEN failed to last as the favorite in his last pair and now gets burdened with Post 8
- hell probably prefer racing from OFF the pace, but it just seems like he'll have too far to come. (5) TWIN
B TUFFENUFF kept trying until finally getting by a tiring #8 last week - not impossible against these, but
he's another that would prefer to be in a bit easier. (1) CAVIART SKYLER draws best for a barn that's been
sharp all meet, but just may be a little cheap for this bunch.
RACE 6 - MGM BORGATA PACING SERIES - (4) ANAAFREET N is worth a play tonight - came into
Round 1 with impressive credentials out of town but landed on a hopeless trip - was still finishing full of
pace for 4th, and now lands in a better spot (even if facing some quality foes) - gets Tetrick in the bike here
and the pair teamed up for a smashing win at Dover back in December - deja vu? (1) LEONIDAS A is an
absolute beast, and confirmed with last week's impressive victory that he's one of the horses to beat in this
Series - hard to predict his trip from the rail, though, and things may or may not go as smoothly as he'd like
- the one to beat, but won't be offering any value for the top slot. (5) CHIEF MATE shipped in from Ohio
sporting some impressive lines and the 4YO showed very quickly in Round 1 that he does indeed fit with
his classy elders in this Series - willing to include in exotics off last week's very impressive showing. (3)
SEMI TOUGH raced much better than expected last week, brutally parked into the 2nd turn before finding
a spot on the cones, but then still kicking home with plenty of pace when free from the top of the lane - just
seems to love Yonkers (10-6-3-0), and a good trip puts him in the hunt for another good piece tonight. (2)
SAN DOMINO A was horrendous in his last three January starts at The Hilltop but a freshening and new
barn seem to have him back on track, and he was a solid front end winner in the first leg - that was a pretty
easy group, though, and he'll be facing a MUCH tougher bunch tonight - we'll see if he's good enough right
now to handle it. (7) AMERICAN HISTORY is capable of HUGE miles when on his game, but he was
well short in Round 1 - will wait for better signs (and a better spot) before backing. (6) WESTERN FAME
was really disappointing 2 back, and not all that much better in last - the former Levy Champ will need to
sharpen back up in a hurry if he hopes to be a player in this year's Series. (8) AMERICAN MERCURY
raced well for 2nd last time, but with a perfect trip in an easier field - brutal assignment tonight, though
RACE 7 - MGM BORGATA PACING SERIES - (4) THIS IS THE PLAN probably wasn't at his sharpest
last week but was still a close 2nd in his first start off 3 months - eligible to be that much tighter now, and
very capable of pulling off the minor upset if the trip goes his way. (2) HESA KINGSLAYER N landed on
a perfect trip in Round 1 and knew exactly what to do with it - he needs things to go his way in order to
have a chance to repeat....but that just may happen from this spot - worth considering if the price gets juicy
enough. (8) LET IT RIDE N no longer needs any introduction - he's now riding a 7 race unbeaten streak in
the U.S., and that includes two wins here at Yonkers (both as the 1/10 favorite!) - clearly the horse to beat --
but he wouldn't be the first "beast" to get into some Post 8 road trouble here, and this just may be the week
to take a little shot against him. (5) OSTRO HANOVER is capable of hanging with these when on his best
game. and last week's late rally suggests he may be rounding back to top form - good value horse to use in
exotics. (1) STARS ALIGN A had an incredible year in the midwest, generally just outrunning fields on the
front end - surprised that he raced from OFF the pace in the first leg, but it's hard to imagine he won't be
blasting from this spot - not sure he can stick around late against this caliber, but he'll give you a root if you
bet on him. (3) BRONX SEELSTER has ability for sure, but remains unproven against this caliber - minor
share only. (7) SHERIFF N is a great comeback story (shows up in the U.S. after 2 years off and thrives
immediately), but it's still to be determined if he can compete against these top ones - brutal spot tonight,
regardless. (6) MACH N CHEESE probably needs an easier division to have any kind of say.
RACE 8 - (2) BETTOR MEMORIES isn't always the most reliable performer but when anywhere close to
his best, this is the type of field he'd normally handle - absolutely deserves top billing, but wouldn't be too
quick to bent the rent money on him at a pretty short price. (4) HUNDIE N looked very good wiring a bit
cheaper in last but he's quite capable at this level too - loses Brennan to the top choice, but still worth a look
if the price is decent. (5) DON DOMINGO N has held his form for some time, and is very solid at this level
- another possibility if the top one falters tonight. (3) MISTER SPOT A is hard to gauge right now - decent
3rd two back but that mile is sandwiched between a poor performance, and a miscue - at least at 15-1 ML
he can be considered for use in exotics. (1) CENTURY ENDEAVOR was terrific 2 back but may need to be
in cheaper to come up with those type of miles - rail draw at least puts him in play for a small piece. (6)
SANTAFES COACH is pretty good right now but moves up in class while drawing outside - will need a
kind trip for a chance at a minor share. (8) MIGHTY SANTANA N gets stuck with another 8 hole and will
probably take the conservative approach once again...especially with a drop to NW10000 looming for next
week. (7) HIGHLAND TARTAN draws outside after missing a month (scr. sick) - pass for tonight
RACE 9 - Good betting race! (2) KERFORD ROAD has been very reliable for weeks, although some
tough spots have left him with just one recent win - should land on a pretty good trip from this spot, though,
and figures to be a fair price - one of several with a chance to win here (at good prices). (6) HEISMAN
PLAYER is listed at 20-1 ML but that mile 2 back was probably the sharpest of his career, and he just had
no prayer from Post 8 in last - well worth including at a big price. (7) GRATIAN HANOVER is as tough
right now as when he pretty much launched the mercurial career of his trainer 3 years ago - not sure he can
find a way into the race from Post 7, but his barn is just way too sizzling right now to NOT have him on
your tickets. (1) CAVIART LUCA has the pole and the road to the winner's circle goes through this classy
10YO - he's clearly lost a few steps, and even though he still finds a way to get his wins, he seems like a
good one to take a shot against at the expected short price. (3) QUATRAIN BLUE CHIP and (4) ON THE
VIRG are very similar - both have been overachieving, both hail from hot barns, but both MAY be pushing
their limits up at this level - consider either/both if spreading this race. (5) IDEAL STAR N has ability
when "right", but he wasn't any good at all last week - would rather just watch, for now. (8)
IMSTAYNALIVE is struggling now, and lands Post 8 - have to pass again
RACE 10 - Another good betting race: (6) MIKES Z TAM is one of many from this barn that has been
unable to match his stellar 2020 form in 2021 (barn was clicking near 30% for a while, but has dropped
back to it's more customary 6% range since the start of the new year) - did look good finishing up in last,
though, and should offer some value here even with the class drop. (1) KEY ADVISOR disappointed in last
but was a solid 2nd to a stickout winner 2 back, and should be looking at a pretty good trip tonight - threat
if back on his "A Game" tonight. (5) MACH IT SO looked better last week than he did in the previous 2
starts, and you know Gingras will handle him aggressively tonight - we'll see if that works out for him. (2)
MOHAWK WARRIOR is still looking for his first win of the season, but has raced well several times so far
- if the trip goes his way, he'd be no surprise at all. (7) ORILLIA JOE looked super beating cheaper last
week, but this is a MUCH tougher spot - likely looking at a much smaller share this time. (3) GINGRAS
BEACH beat cheaper 2 back, but was no factor in last (at this level) off a sick scratch - mixed feelings
about his chances here. (4) BLATANTLY BEST is up in class off after being overdriven against lesser -
prefer to wait for a class drop. (8) TIGER BARON doesn't figure to have much impact from out here.