The Empire Report - Monday, April 12, 2021 - Race Analysis
RACE 1 - Very tough race right off the bat! (8) KEPT UNDER WRAPS A was claimed for $20K 3 back,
stepped up to beat the 25s the next week (as the favorite), but was a little disappointing when 4th in his last
(though it was a bit of a strange trip) - drops back down to 20s for tonight and even though he lands the
worst post, we'll still make him the top choice...though a bit of trip luck will surely be needed! (5) GRAND
PRIORITY has been doing some decent work at Monti since switching barns 3 back - he's won races here
in the past, does have speed to leave (which Kakaley knows), and has to be worth at least a look at 20-1
ML. (2) IWONTODOTHATAGAIN was ok from an impossible spot in this class 2 back but disappointed
vs. cheaper when heavily backed in his next - the price will go way up tonight, so can't blame anybody
looking to give him one more shot. (4) P H KENNY just missed in his last but would have been a winner if
actually "sharp" - has lost to the basement claimers many times recently, but this is actually a pretty soft
$20K claiming race - barm is red hot, but not a big fan at a short price. (7) LANAS DESIRE improved
significantly off the claim last week - would have easily been one of the top choices with a better draw, but
we'll see if he can still get it done from out here. (1) DRINKA BEER has way more bad efforts than good
once lately - rail draw didn't help him in last, and just not willing to hop on board tonight at a short price.
(6) CHIEF ALTAWICK gets a major driver change for his YR debut - seems a little cheap, but wouldn't be
a chock in this wide open race. (3) CONSTNTLYSIDEWYS A has been a non factor in the majority of his
local tries, although his barn is doing a bit better lately.
RACE 2 - Another really tough race: (2) PROVOCATIVEPRINCEN gets his first inside draw in ages, and
have to believe Zeron will look to take advantage - his best game is the front end, and he'll be dangerous
tonight if he finds himself there. (4) TREASURE MACH could offer some excellent value tonight - just
missed to a classy winner 5 starts back then won his next 2 - solid 3rd up in his class in his next (into a fast
final half), then was gaining on Borgata entrant IDEAL JIMMY in his last - he has a real chance here - with
the right trip. (3) TWIN B SPEEDO may have fallen a notch from the incredible form he held for so long,
but he's also better than that last mile (off 3 weeks) - his top connections will likely have him much sharper
for tonight. (7) ROCK LIGHTS put in a BIG move before folding 2 back....his first try for the "Super
Siblings" - raced MUCH better in last, though, almost pulling off the 46-1 upset - the price will come down
tonight, but still be good enough to make him worth considering. (1) EGOMANIA was very good for
several starts but disappointed on the lead 2 back, then was running out through the stretch in last - prefer
others on top, but maybe can grab a piece with an easy trip? (5) CLASSIC PRO raced very well despite
some hard use in last, then was reclaimed by his previous connections - draws outside a few main foes here,
and that could hurt his chances. (6) SOHO WALLSTREET A is capable on his best effort but he
squandered a pocket trip in his last, and now moves outside.
RACE 3 - (5) ROCK ON LINE has been outstanding since the recent claim grabbing a pair of wins and a
hard charging 4th from Post 8 - not "handy" enough to ever love him if the price is too short, but as long as
his trip is even half-decent, he'll have his chance to roll by these (again) in the homestretch. (1) CONTROL
TOWER was claimed for $12.5 on 3/12 and went on to grab a pair of wins and a nose loss for his
connections - moves to another new barn tonight, but anything close to his recent efforts will have him
right in the mix again. (2) OHOKA JOHNNY N had good pace last time when finally free into the stretch -
he loves the front end, and could be a dangerous player if able to get there tonight. (3) MIKES POWERHO
USE was given a horrific drive by his inexperienced pilot last week and still went a BIG effort, beaten only
a length in 3rd - if young Tyler Miller can give him a better steer tonight, he'd have a chance to outperform
that 20-1 ML price...despite moving up in class. (4) RECORD YEAR just hasn't been a threat since moving
up to this level - needs to find a better effort for even a piece of this. (6) FOX VALLEY INFERNO was
riding a lengthy form spree until going in the wrong direction 3 starts back - waiting to see a better mile
before hopping back on his team. (7) FIREBALL just hasn't been sharp enough to overcome Post 7 here,
especially with all the main players drawn to his inside. (8) RUTHLESS DUDE regressed in a big way for
a new barn in last - will pass, for now
RACE 4 - Borgata Pacing Series: (1) BACKSTREET SHADOW was 2nd best in the opening leg to
LEONIDAS A, a very sharp front end winner the next week, then 2nd best to an airborne WESTERN JOE
in Week 3 - took a week off, has a spot in the Final almost certainly assured, but still seems the one to beat
thanks to the draw...and his connections will probably want to get a strong mile out of him heading into the
Final. (5) WESTERN JOE was an "ok" 4th the first leg, a dead game, nose loss 2nd in week 2. exploded
like he was shot out of a cannon to win Leg 3, then benefited from a miraculous trip to grab an improbable
win in his last....though it's BECAUSE he was so sharp that he was able to capitalize - comes into tonight
as the series leader with a Final spot locked up...so he may just sit back and charge home late, with his eye
on the bigger picture. (2) RAUKAPUKA RULER needs to make up points on both #3 and #5 for a shot at
the Final, and he's likely hoping to sit a pocket behind the top choice...the trip that allowed him to finish
2nd in a pair of earlier legs - might happen again tonight. (3) SAN DOMINO A landed on beautiful trips in
all 3 legs that he raced in, resulting in a win, 2nd, and 3rd - he's currently tied for 7th, and could use some
more points for insurance...just not sure what trip he'll land tonight. (7) LYONS STEEL is currently tied for
7th/8th with #3, and he's another hoping to pick up a decent piece tonight - Callahan may try to leave to
increase his chances, but that also comes with some risk - tough call. (4) TYGA HANOVER has hung in
well all through the series despite being a bit below many of the top ones - maybe can save ground for
another piece tonight.
RACE 5 - Borgata Pacing Series: (6) CHIEF MATE took last week off but returns to the same horrible
draw luck that he had the first 3 weeks - the 4YO has quietly been very impressive in his local starts, and
seems destined for a terrific season...not sure if he'll be able to overcome Post 6 tonight, but this is a soft
enough division that he's worth a play...hoping for a good trip, and nice payoff. (3) MACH N CHEESE had
a horrible 2020 season (only $14K in the bank) but his last couple suggest that there's still some good miles
left in him - definitely possible in a field with no stickouts. (4) SEMI TOUGH raced better than expected in
the first 2 legs, but was just "ok" in last after taking a week off - if he can get back to that better form. he'd
have a chance here....but that 5/2 ML price is definitely a turn off. (2) IDEAL JIMMY was "meh" in that
dropdown front end win 2 back but he MIGHT have had a chance for a series win last time had he ducked
to the inside in the stretch, rather than moving off the cones, and into a traffic jam (the WINNER ended up
flying up the spot he vacated!) - willing to use in exotics. (5) MACS JACKPOT has been racing "ok"
picking up a series of smaller pieces - seems headed in that same direction tonight. (1) WESTERN FAME
hasn't raced well or even looked good lately - moves to a new barn off the private purchase, and we'll see if
exiting an ice-cold barn results in a better effort right off the bat.
RACE 6 - Borgata Pacing Series: (1) LEONIDAS A comes into tonight having won 5 straight, and 8 of his
last 9 (a close 2nd in the lone loss) - he actually hasn't looked AS good on the front end in his last two, and
he may find himself there again tonight....but he's hard to pick against from this spot, as he preps for next
week's Final. (6) THIS IS THE PLAN was a solid 2nd in the first 2 legs, and outstanding 2nd in week 3
(despite racing parked the mile), then jogged on the front end in his last - he may just have a clear path right
to the top again this week (despite the outside draw), and that would give him a big chance to be 1st or 2nd
once again (but can also do well from off the pace, if necessary). (5) HESA KINGSLAYER N was a winner
in all three legs that he raced in, but definitely landed on absolute perfect trips each time - he already has
his spot in the Final locked up, and MAY end up with a less than stellar journey tonight - not a bad week to
look against him as next week's Final is surely the prize he has his eye on. (3) OSTRO HANO VER has
been 3rd/4th in all 4 legs, and probably looking at a similar result tonight - he's racing ok, but the top guns
have just been a bit better. (4) SHERIFF N had every chance to pull off an upset last week but just didn't
have enough at the end to pull it off - tougher spot now, and likely looking at only a smaller share here. (2)
STARS ALIGN A enjoyed almost all of his success this year on the front end, but didn't get to cut a mile in
any of his 3 legs....and doesn't figure to find himself there tonight, either -- will give him a longer look after
the series, when he lands in with some softer competition.
RACE 7 - (2) PYRO just had too tough a trip to overcome last week but he was vicious the week before,
and has won half of his 8 local starts this year - if he's on his game tonight, this is a pretty good spot. (6)
TWIN B TUFFENUFF just shot to the top last week and dominated his rivals from start to finish - he
certainly didn't deserve to be punished with the outside post off that one effort, but he still has a chance to
beat these too...IF he can get away to the same quick start as last time. (4) THE REAL ONE came to life 2
back...around the same time that several of his barnmates also suddenly found their strong 2020 form - this
is hardly a tough "Open", and he's sharp enough now for a chance to extend his winning streak to 3....as
long as there's a bit of pace up front to set up his late kick. (1) REDBANK BLAZE A has been in fine form
for some time, and always does well when he draws inside - he feels a notch below the top ones, but it
wouldn't shock if he was close at the wire. (3) HEAVENS GAIT looked like he was coming back to top
form in early March but comes into tonight's race off a pair of weak efforts - barn has been very hot, but it's
hard to like this guy off those last two miles. (5) WALKINSHAW N was on a major form spree, but he was
scratched sick here on 3/29 then came up with a weak try at Stga. last week - seems a little iffy right now
RACE 8 - (4) ROLLWITHPAPAJOE raced as well as he could from impossible spots in 3 of his last 4
starts, and absolutely crushed the field the one start he drew inside (2 weeks back) - he's been consistent all
year, his barn is hot (as always), and he's the one to knock off here. (1) HEISMAN PLAYER has elevated
his game as a 5YO, holding his form beautifully even as he climbed the class ladder - the draw puts him in
line for a good trip, and likely a big chunk of this purse. (6) TITO ROCKS moves up a notch off a loss but
it was a dead game performance (against the classy and currently sharp Tookadiveoffdipper), and he just
seems to go big efforts week after week - will need some trip luck from out here, but that could be offset by
a better price - worth considering. (3) AMERICAN MERCURY is the "x factor" tonight - was no factor at
all in his last 3, but those were from bad posts against Borgata Series rivals - on his best, he's an excellent
fit here....but just dropping in class doesn't mean that he's going to just reverse form...tough call. (2) CHRI
STEN ME N was dead game in that win 2 back but just never looked right last week, seemingly
uncomfortable from even before the race (then going from looking strong in the pocket, to empty in the
stretch) - not really sure what to expect from the 13YO tonight. (5) DENVER SEELSTER is pushing his
limits up at this level but he's been very consistent lately, and maybe can grab a small piece with a ground
saving trip. (7) CAVIART LUCA can still do damage when in the right spot...but this doesn't feel like one
of those spots! (8) FIZZING N is sharp, but facing a brutal task from all the way out here.
RACE 9 - Tough race: (1) MIGHTY SANTANA N was sent off as the odds on choice here on 3/1 from a
similar spot, but gout roughed up pretty good and weakened to 3rd - that was followed by a couple of 8
holes, but he was a solid first over winner in his last (vs. a bit cheaper), and should be looking at a good trip
tonight - giving him the slight edge. (3) MOHAWK WARRIOR was a very sharp first over winner vs. a bit
softer 2 back, then finished with good pace for 3rd at this level last week - he's sharp now, listed at 12-1 on
the ML, and definitely worth a look here. (4) GRATIAN HANOVER looked a little ouchy last week and
wasn't on his best game....but we've watched the incredible gritty 9YO rebound from tough outings a zillion
times over the past few years, and he may just do that again tonight - hard to leave off your tickets. (5)
ESCAPETOTHEBEACH made his Hilltop return a winning one last week, wiring the field from Post 7 -
can't fault his effort, but he may need to be a bit better to have the same success against this (much) tougher
field - at 5/2 ML, there would seem to be better value with a few others. (8) JOESSTAR OF MIAA is in a
good roll and has been ascending back up the ladder in PA - he'll need to "blast and hope" from this spot,
but he's not a bad bomb if McCarthy rolls the dice and tries to send him. (7) ROCK THE DEVIL was a
very solid 3rd in his first try off the layoff - looks ready to do some even bigger damage, but will need a lot
to go his way to do it from out here. (6) MARK WITHA K is back in a good way now, but lands outside
again and may need to wait for a better spot before being a more serious player again. (2) FLYING FINN N
is forced to move up again after a so-so 3rd vs. cheaper - may find these a little too tough for him
RACE 10 - (4) QUATRAIN BLUE CHIP beat this class on 2/9 then held his own vs. better for several
starts - no prayer in his last couple but drops, draws decently, and gets the vote in the finale for a hot trainer
/ driver duo (5) FINE DIAMOND was off 3 weeks to his last and was content to trail vs. much better- lands
in his softest spot in a long time, and BEAT a NW20000 field not all that long ago - main danger. (3) BET
TOR THAN SPRING was a winner in his YR return last week, but didn't really look like his 1/5 price - he's
more than capable of elevating his game and beating these too...but not worth a short price HOPING that
happens. (1) RUNRUNJIMMYDUNN N is looking at a nice trip from this spot, and should be included in
your exotics. (2) MARTY MONKHOUSER A is a bit cheap, but clearly sharp right now - good one to use
for the bottom of tris and supers. (8) SHADOW CAT isn't a bad bomb if looking for a "last race escape" -
he's very sharp right now, but draws Post 8 after getting parked all the way in his last, and just may take a
conservative approach tonight - keep an eye on him, either way. (7) BIG BAD BILL has been delivering
more good tries than bad ones lately, but will have a hard time reaching unless things really fall apart. (6)
MOTIVE HANOVER just seems too cheap for these, even though showing good form out of town.