The Empire Report - Thursday, May 18, 2023 - Race Analysis
RACE 1 - (1) EL MISSION GODDESS hinted at some ability at 2 but made too many miscues - has been
able to mind her manners in all 4 starts this year, including a 2nd place finish here on 4/27 - that 10-1 ML
price makes her worth a stab in this highly beatable field. (3) WANIA hails from a 30% winning barn that
would be at an unfathomable 40% if not for this guy's 1 for 13 record - he's always a player and hit board in
10 of 13 starts this year...but he's a tough one to call out on top. (6) HEADOVERBOOTS AS, like #3,
seems to always be a player but has trouble finding the winner's circle (12-0-8-0 this year) - it's POSSIBLE
he can beat these, but he's another that's tough to use on top...especially at low odds. (4) AVACAKES used
easy trips to pick up 3rds in her last pair and may be looking at another small piece here. BRAVO ROMEO
was pretty overbet for his 5YO return (only his 6th lifetime start!) but proved an easy winner over a weak
bunch (in what may end up the slowest mile of the year here - 2:02.2) - jury still out on how he'll fare with
a bit better. (5) CREDARENA started off the year pretty well but really leveled off after that - needs to find
a better effort if he hopes to have any real say tonight
RACE 2 - (4) WARRAWEE MIA has been facing theoretically "lesser" at Monti but it's hard to believe
that this bunch is any tougher - his form is far better than most/all of the others, and he deserves top billing
in this spot. (6) FLASHY SWAN was winless in 6 Indiana starts at 2 but raced ok in several of them -
moves to a new barn after making a couple of starts back at 3, and has the speed to get a good start despite
the outside draw - 3 weeks off, and first time over the half are a couple of concerns, however. (1) BANGIN
IN THE HALL draws the pole with Bartlett but his career slate of 31-0-2-3 makes him hard to seriously
consider for the top slot at that 8/5 ML price! (2) HEART OF A TITAN picked up a 2nd by default 2 starts
back but has shown little else - may still be better than the others, though. (5) BARCELONA PRINCESS
hit board for the first time when 3rd last week....but 16 lengths behind the winner - will need to do much
better than that. (3) MY BELFAST ANGEL was a "third by default" two back but has otherwise struggled
since returning as a 3YO.
RACE 3 - (2) ALL CHAMPY is usually the one to beat almost every week as he's now been 1st or 2nd in
11 of 15 starts this year (facing tougher the other 4 starts) - was just reclaimed by a barn that won with him
3 starts back, and the road to the winner's circle still goes through him. (3) VALI HANOVER hung in
gamely for 3rd after a first over trip for a new barn last week - he may be able to build off that, and be even
sharper tonight. (4) LINDSEYS PRIDE took a while to sharpen after being claimed in late February but the
8YO has definitely been on his game lately - came up 2nd best to the top choice in his last pair, and will
need to find a bit more if he hopes to reverse that outcome. (1) MISSION VOYAGE beat this class 3 and 4
starts down but was just an "ok" 4th last week - draws the pole for a hot barn, and could easily rebound
with a much stronger mile. (5) MUSCLEDOVER raced well through most of the Brennan Series and gave
it a decent speed try in NW6 last week - may find the going a little tougher facing tough OLDER foes here.
(7) IN MY DREAMS draws all the way outside after a miscue last week and this seems like a spot to just
observe, for future considerations. (6) CIEL BLUE figures to be too far back to have much impact tonight
RACE 4 - Tough race: (7) TAKE A GAMBLE won his first 6 starts here this year before getting stuck
making a long first over move into MOONSHINE KISSES' 1:51 mile last start (but still holding very well
for 4th) - he's the "best horse" in here, but faces potential obstacles from Post 7 - listing him on top, but
don't take a short price! (1) ULTIMAROCA is an inconsistent sort, capable of beating these, folding badly,
and everything in between - could be tough if he's in the right mood, but he's another not worth backing (on
top) if the price is too short. (5) SOUTHWIND PETYR is just one of many horses that have recently
improved by leaps and bounds after joining the Dynamic Duo - he gave the top choice all he could handle
(off the big barn change) 3 back, was a very sharp winner the next week then came up 2nd best to a classy
rival in his last - a live trip makes him a legitimate threat. (2) GREG THE LEG really upped his game after
joining forces with our leading trainer earlier this year - was a winner in his first try in this class last week,
and another easy trip could put him right there once more. (6) TUFFENUFTOWEARPINK has improved
considerably since the recent barn change, winning once and a close 2nd (to very sharp foes) the other 2
starts - this is a big class jump, and we'll see of he's up for these too. (4) CAVIART SARGENT won on
4/26 when claimed for $50K then finished 3rd in two starts (in this class) since then - chance for another
small piece. (3) TRE CRUZ has been facing conditioned claimers out of town and may be a bit cheap
RACE 5 - NAADA Amateur Spring Series Final: (2) DARK POOL remained winless on the year after the
very costly early miscue last week - he HAS gone some big miles in defeat, however, and won a bunch of
races here in years past...assuming he's a better price tonight, he could be a good value play. (5) SHOEMA
KER HANOVER hit board in all 3 starts here this year, including a front end score on 4/20 - he can handle
any trip, doesn't mind taking air, and his owner/trainer does a good job driving him as well - legitimate
threat, but a bit unappealing at that silly 6/5 ML price. (7) TURBOCHARGEDPETE makes too many
breaks to ever back with confidence but he also can go some big miles when he does behave - at least worth
a look at that 20-1 ML price. (1) JUDGE KEN never looked like a player last week from well out of it...but
when things just collapsed up front, he was there to pick up the pieces at 37-1 - can't just dismiss him
tonight, but the price will come down considerably, and he is prone to miscues from the pole. (8) WICKED
NICK missed all of 2022 but he's looked good in all three starts since returning to the races in '23, just
missing to #7 here two back, then winning easily at Monti last week - brutal draw, but that 20-1 ML price
makes him worth considering if spreading this race. (6) WINNERESS took advantage of the rail at Fhd.
last week and gave his owner/driver a nice front end score- figures to have a tougher time from Post 6
tonight, though. (4) KASHAS BOY was stuck in an impossible spot last week and gets a pass for that mile
- his form prior to that was okay. and he may be able to grab a piece tonight. (3) CYCLONE MAXIMUS
struggled to get in play last week - throws a good one here and there, but still leaning towards others
RACE 6 - (1) IN A TINY WAY had a solid 3YO campaign, earning $81K and making the NYSS Final -
has come back strong at 4, hitting board in all three starts including last week's tough beat 2nd (just losing
to the rail skimming winner) - gets the slight edge over her main foe. (5) UNEVERGONNAGETHIS was
also good at 3 (in Canada), banking $134K - took 4 months off and returned sharp right out of the box for
the Brennan Series, finishing 4th in the Final (behind 3 nice trotters) - couldn't blame anybody for making
this guy their top choice. (8) VELVET STYLE was struggling this year until registering that sharp blowout
win 2 back - followed that up with a good mile at PcD, but will need a good helping of trip luck to beat the
top pair from Post 8. (6) BACKSTREET PLAYER rallied for 2nd from well back in his first YR start of the
year, then finished a close 3rd last week (behind #1)- definitely okay for exotics. (2) DOWN THE PIKE
MIKE got back on track recently and certainly gets a pass for last (hopelessly parked) - and easy trip puts
him in line for a piece of this. (4) ER NO MORE made a costly early miscue last week but has otherwise
raced well since arriving recently from Ohio - include underneath. (3) TAP ME BLUE CHIP has a couple
of recent wins but vs. much easier - prefer others. (7) HOOFBEATS DE VIE was scr. sick from his YR
debut last week and draws poorly for tonight - will keep an eye on him for future considerations
RACE 7 - 1 1/16th miles: (5) FOREVER FAV was able to leave at this distance 2 back and came up a close
2nd to a currently very sharp winner - he was solid again last week when rallying for 4th from a tough spot,
and the guess is that Siegelman will handle him aggressively tonight - gets the narrow nod. (4) C BET
HANOVER delivered a powerful victory last week (shipping back in from PcD) and is now 5-3-1-0 locally
for the year - figures to be a very dangerous player even moving up a notch. (7) GARDYS LEGACY A put
in a big brush for his new barn last week before getting collared in the lane by #4 - tough post, but he does
have the speed to leave for good position - could easily be part of the equation. (2) VEL MR NICE GUY's
last start was at this distance, finishing 3rd (behind #5) - good one for the bottom of exotics once again. (1)
ARRHYTHMIC SURGE is having a tough year so far but figures to get away decently from this spot, and
may be able to grab a minor share. (9) THREE IN HEAVEN A may be a little cheap right now, but a decent
start (from the back row) would at least give him a chance at some minor spoils. (6) GENERAL MO
NTANA N shipped in sharp on 4/21 but folded badly as the odds-on choice - his last at PcD was even
worse, and he does feel a bit shaky at the moment. (3) DARLINGS DRAGON hasn't hit board in 4 local
starts this year and needs to be better. (8) TIN ROOF RAIDER A is off form and also draws Post 8
RACE 8 - (1) STORMY KROMER was pretty disappointing when he couldn't get it done at 1/5 two back
but he did make amends (at the same price) last week - he's been unreliable so far in 2023 but he's just won
way too many of these over the years to NOT give him a shot from the pole. (2) HEY LIVVY was a little
disappointing 3 back but she followed that up with wins (in the FM Open) the last 2 weeks - more than
capable of beating this mixed-gender field as well. (5) NO MAS DRAMA went a HUGE mile last week,
only to get nipped late by #2 - would be no surprise to see her right there on the wire tonight. (4) CREDIT
CON added Lasix 2 back and just missed after cutting the mile - sat the pocket last week and was the strong
horse at the end, picking up the victory - another that's sharp enough to take this if things go his way. (3)
MISSISSIPPI STORM has just one win this year, and he would have been 2nd that night if the place horse
got a better drive - he's always in the hunt, though, and is very playable underneath. (8) HIGHLAND
MOWGLI just loves Yonkers (and the lead) but faces a very tough task from Post 8 tonight - may have to
wait for a kinder spot. (6) SEVENSHADESOFGREY is trotting every week now, and holding his excellent
form right up the class ladder - very tough spot for his Open debut, however, and even a good finish may
leave him with just minor spoils. (7) C YOU AGAIN DK is unproven at this level and draws Post 7 off a
break - sticking with others
RACE 9 - (3) B NICKING gets an important drop to a level he's very comfortable at, and also gets a good
draw - he can be a little unreliable at times, but his best effort would make him tough tonight. (4) DREAM
ONHIGH stole an easy half here 2 back and was able to dig in late to hold off the 1/5 STORMY KROMER
- made a break in a good NJ field last week but assuming she behaves, she can be a big threat tonight. (2)
ZIG ZAG is probably on the cheaper side but he's been racing well since returning from the layoff, and may
have a chance to upset if the top pair are unable to deliver. (5) TACHYON never seems to race the same
way twice in a row, but the ability IS there at times - not impossible if he brings his best. (7) STREET
GOSSIP was blocked behind a stopper in the lane last week, and also gets some class relief for tonight -
may still need to find a better spot, but he may at least be able to offer some improvement here. (1) P C
FREE WHEELING drops out of the FM Open and draws the pole...but may still be a notch below a few of
the main players. (6) PROMISE FOR LIFE is just 1 for 13 this year but did hit board in 7 of those losses -
may be able to rally late for a small share. (8) GREY gets an important drop and CAN be a threat at this
level - not sure she can do it from all the way out here, however.
RACE 10 - (4) SWEET SOUL DAVID took full advantage of the slight class drop last week, delivering the
wire to wire score as the odds-on choice - this a tougher field, but he's shown that he's comfortable with
these types as well - gets a slight edge in a very competitive finale. (3) OH BOY is hitting on all cylinders
right now, and seems ready to handle another class jump - no reason he can't be a big threat tonight as he
looks for his 3rd win in a row. (2) WHAT SHOULD I GOO went some solid efforts in the Brennan Series,
though unable to find the winner's circle - may be looking at another smaller piece tonight, as well. (8) TO
CCOA FALLS has the ability to be a player with these, but starts at a significant post disadvantage - if
Gingras can get him into the hunt without using him too hard, he may be able to be right there at the wire.
(1) HUNTING AS was a no threat 2nd to #3 last week and now has to bump up in class - probably looking
at only a smaller slice, even starting from the pole. (5) PERRON picked up a win at this level for his new
barn 5 starts back, but has struggled a bit since then - mixed feelings about his chances for tonight. (7) WIN
DSONG PIONEER has the ability to hang with these, but may have a hard time tonight starting from Post 7
- will look very good in NW10000 NEXT week. (6) LADY JETER has a couple of wins this year, but has
struggled in a lot of her other starts