Tuesday Empire Report

soaofny • July 12, 2022

The Empire Report - Tuesday, July 12, 2022 - Race Analysis

RACE 1 - (6) LOUS BEACH carved out the fractions the last 2 weeks only to get run down in the lane by

fresh (sharp) shippers - this feels like a bunch where he can get over the hump, and get his picture taken. (3)

HURRIKANE MON AMI seemed to be making nice progress in his first couple of starts but was a bit

overmatched in a couple of NYSS races, then caught a hot 1:52 mile at Goshen - lands in a much easier

spot making his 2nd start for new connections, and may be the biggest threat to the top choice. (1) LONE

WOLF AMERICAN displayed speed in his last 2 starts but just didn't finish well enough - should land on a

pretty easy trip here, and may be able to time his move a little better (and finish up stronger). (5) CAPTAIN

BUTLER does seem to try hard, but really doesn't love the Yonkers turns - willing to include underneath.

(2) VARNEY is 1 for 14 and 8-0-0-3 this year - still, an easy trip puts him in play for a small piece. (7)

EXOTIC SAND probably has a bit more ability than his lines might suggest, but will need a lot to go his

way to reach from out here - maybe a minor award? (4) LIFETIMEEXPERIENCE has shown some ability

at times but has been away for 3 months, and may need a start or two. (8) SEE ME SHINE relocates to a

new barn this week, while drawing Post 8 off a break - prefer to just watch, for now.


RACE 2 - Excelsior A, 3YO Fillies: (6) AMERICAN HALO seemed like a logical player last week but

never got herself in play - perhaps the 19 days off played a part in that, and it's good to see her drop right

back in the box - one of several possible winners in this short field. (3) FOX VALLEY CACHET was a bit

of a disappointing 3rd in NW2 two starts back, but was a good 3rd vs. NW4 in her last - barn has been

pretty live lately, and this filly could be a threat on her best effort. (5) NITE TIME DEAL showed some

potential at 2 but has struggled to really get into a groove so far at 3 - fits well with these, and is another

with a legitimate chance to come out on top here. (2) CLEAR THE WAY disappointed here on 6/21, but

may have been hurt a bit by some hard early use - wouldn't be surprised if she was a live player here... if

the trip goes her way. (1) STRIKE THE GAVEL was no factor here from the rail 2 back, and will need to

be better if she hopes to be a contender tonight. (4) PERFECT QUEEN is just 1 for 13, and that win came

at Monticello - another that will need to improve some to be a threat.


RACE 3 - Excelsior A, 3YO Fillies: (1) DUDES SWEET BET took a couple of starts to get her 3YO

campaign going but has been very sharp lately, including last week's win at Goshen....where she knocked

off solid NYSS performer KELE KELE - definitely the one to beat here from the pole. (4) BLUEBERRY

SHAKE had trouble getting qualified but became a fast learner after being moved to her current barn...and

she's looked good in all 4 career starts since then - could be the main danger. (2) TWENTY GRAND also

took a few starts to find her form but she comes into tonight having raced well in 3 of her last 4 Excelsior A

starts - should be right in the hunt from start to finish. (3) YES INDEED hit board in all 3 of her Excelsior

A attempts this year, with a Yonkers overnight win sandwiched in between - another solid candidate for a

good piece here. (6) FLIP THE SCRIPT won her only start here as a 2YO but her 3YO form (so far) has

been spotty, at best - outside draw doesn't help, either. (7) CHILLIN BYTHE POOL appreciated the driver

change in that form reversing win up at Monti, then rallied nicely for 2nd her last week, from well back -

outside draw (after missing 3 weeks) may leave her a bit short tonight, however.


RACE 4 - (6) LAYTON HANOVER tired after a first over bid in his only Yonkers start....but that start was

in a Messenger Stakes elimination -- he would seem to have a MAJOR edge over this crew, and will be

about 10 cents on the dollar to beat them. (2) COOL MAN DUDE just didn't fire in his first local try but he

seems capable of better - we'll give him the edge in what looks like a race for 2nd. (1) AMERICAN WAY

looked absolutely hopeless on the final turn in his last pair and somehow just showed up in the lane and

paced over the field both times (first at 8-1, then at 75-1!) - faces better now, but still may be able to rally

for a good piece. (4) YS DO IT RIGHT was a non threatening 2nd off a pocket trip in his only local try -

goes to a new barn now, and we'll see which direction he goes. (3) CONTACT ZONE was a well backed 8

hole winner in his YR debut but not nearly as good (up in class) the following week - suppose the jury is

still out on this guy. (8) TE AMO BLUE CHIP did win a NYSS at Buffalo recently but he'll need some luck

getting into this with the likelihood of inside leavers making it hard for him to get into the race. (5)

GOTAFOOLISHDESIRE is 0 for 15 this year, but did hit board in a couple of local tries - maybe a shot at

3rd/4th? (8) BET EIGHTTHIRTYONE seems unlikely to be able to get involved from out here


RACE 5 - Excelsior A, 3YO Fillies: (2) NADINA HANOVER, on her best, would likely beat these - the

problem is that she doesn't always bring her absolute best (she just lost at 1/5 at VD two back) - we'll give

her top billing....but would hesitate to fall in love with her at what could be another very short price. (4)

TIME TO ROAR was a winner in 2 of her 3 Excelsior A races this year but made a break in the other (and

also went offstride at Pocono, 2 back) - if she behaves, she'll be a major player...but she's another one that

could be risky at a short price. (3) TONYS MOM hit board in all 6 of her starts this year, but 4 of those

were 3rd place finishes - she can definitely be a player here, but may need a couple of others to falter for a

chance at the top prize. (7) AMERICAN JAZZ comes into tonight with back to back wins, including one at

Goshen last week - would have liked her chances a lot more from a better post, though. (6) JACANA just

missed at Buffalo and VD but was no factor in her other 2 Excelsior A attempts - at 15-1 ML, would at

least consider including her on the bottom of the ticket. (1) PEMBROKE IDEAL BJ and (5) GOODLUCK

SWEETHEART both seem a bit overmatched in here.


RACE 6 - NYSS, 3YO Fillies - tough race! (2) LEE LOO just didn't function in the Park MGM Filly Pace

but she was very sharp leading up to that race, and drops back in the box relatively quickly - if whatever

was bugging her has been resolved, she may be able to bounce back quickly....and beat these at a decent

price. (6) AMERICAN TICKET disappointed in her last mile at VD but like the top choice, was doing

excellent work right up to that point - another who could rebound at a nice payoff in here. (4) VALAR

DOHAERIS couldn't get the hang of things at 2, but has been a quick learner at 3 - she comes into tonight

in sharp form, and seems to be getting better with each start - barn has won a LOT of races here with Dube

in the bike! (1) PATSVILLE was 4 for 9 as a 2YO, and 1 for 1 here at Yonkers - she's handled the move this

year from Excelsior A to NYSS very nicely, and can have a big say from the pole tonight. (3) KELE KELE

has hit board in all 8 starts this year, and has a win right here at Yonkers (in NW2) - she's right there with

these every week, and would surely be no surprise tonight. (5) KAY SAGE has won 3 of 4 starts this year,

and made a break in the lone loss - this is her first try against NYSS fillies, so we'll give the edge to her

more seasoned foes....but certainly wouldn't be shocked to see her have a big say here. (7) JOYRIDE

HANOVER had a very successful 2YO season, but seems to have hit a rut after winning a NYSS up at

Buffalo - drawing another horrible post won't make things any easier for her.


RACE 7 - Another tough race: (1) MILLWOOD BONNIE seemed to regain some confidence with that

bottom level win 3 back, and is definitely on the upswing- she's beaten these in the past when sharp- maybe

she can trip out and pull off a mild upset tonight? (3) JOSSIE JAMES A shipped in sharp from PA and

raced very well for 2nd on 6/28 - gets a pass for her last (parked from the start), and that 12-1 ML price

makes her worth a good look here. (4) LARJON LEAH is also 12-1 ML and she's back in with the girls

tonight after racing first over against the boys last start - goes with Lasix for the 2nd time, and is another

value horse to consider.(5) PURE COTTON was a winner in her first 2 tries at this level, then rallied nicely

from far back to get 2nd last week - remains a very dangerous threat. (2) SUMMER RAE has had a tough

time getting into a good groove so far as a 4YO, but did out in a nice rally for 3rd last week (in a race that

fell apart) - we'll see if she can build off that and be a player tonight. (6) WOODMERE SKYROLLER was

good for a long time and regularly used on our tickets - she does feel like she's been tailing, however, and

others seem more appealing at the moment. (8) LOOKATMYART just missed in this class 2 back, and

endured a tough trip last week - she fits for sure, but faces another arduous journey from Post 8. (7) CAYS

BLESSING ships in sharp from Monti, but seems ambitiously placed.


RACE 8 - NYSS, 3YO Fillies: (2) GOTTHEGREENLIGHT was dead game in last week's Park MGM

Filly Pace, digging in to hold on for the win DH despite the tough trip - last year's NYSS Champ is off to a

fine start at 3, and deserves top billing with the good inside draw. (4) A GIRL THAT TWIRLS flashed

some serious potential at times at 2, including a NYSS win here at Yonkers - was a little surprising to see

her start the year racing at the Excelsior A level, but after 2 excellent wins she stepped up and won a NYSS

at VD - that last qualifier should keep her tight for tonight, and it's encouraging that Sears is coming over to

drive her - solid threat. (5) JUST DIVINE was favored in last year's NYSS Final but came up 2nd best -

she's a little hard to gauge off her effort so far this year, but it doesn't help that she draws outside a couple

of main rivals - she'll be a decent enough price for anybody that wants to take a shot with her. (1) WINE N

DINE ME was ignored from the rail last week (17-1) but used a perfect trip to earn the DH with the top

choice - draws the pole once more, but we'll see if the trip works out as well. (3) HAMPTONS BABE had a

solid year at 2, but hasn't hit her best stride yet at 3 - likely looking at a smaller piece here. Both (6) FLY

LIKE AN ANGEL and (7) SUPERBLY seem a notch below the top ones, AND draw the outside posts -

sticking with others.


RACE 9 - (1) CARLISIMO has been very solid since returning to YR and will have his chance to either

cut this mile, or sit the pocket - either trip may be enough to get him to the winner's circle in this solid

NW20000 field. (8) OAKWOODINITOWINIT IR rallied by the classy PAT STANLEY N last week but

was outkicked by WICHITA LINEMAN for the top prize - he has a shot to beat these...but only if Marohn

has the confidence to handle him aggressively. (5) ESCAPETOTHEBEACH has a knack for coming to life

when he drops down to this level - was a winner in this class 2 back, and has to be respected tonight. (4)

MANKAT has really elevated his game since the recent barn change - he's picked up smaller pieces at this

level in his last pair, and has a chance to be in the hunt once again. (3) LINNYCALLEDFRANKIE is

untested against good OLDER horses, but he's certainly sharp right now - prefer others on top, but wouldn't

be shocked if he did beat these. (2) AIR FORCE HANOVER perked up with a pair of front end wins over

cheaper, but weakened vs. NW15000 last week and steps up even more tonight - definitely leaning towards

others. (7) GLACIS has been on a good roll for a long time, but he's still just 1 for 17 on the year - he'll

look to save ground and rally late...but he may just be starting from too far back tonight to do any real

damage. (6) ROCK LIGHTS was razor sharp in back to back wins over cheaper - was scratched sick from

his next, drew Post 8 after that, and was caught in the back into a fast NJ mile last week - he could wake up

at any time, but this does feel like a tough spot.

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