The Empire Report – Thursday, September 12, 2024 – Race Analysis
RACE 1 – (6) STEUBEN HANOVER has been knocking on the door for weeks but keeps coming up a little short – he can race on or off the pace and is a very logical threat here…but he hasn’t won in a while, so be careful about taking too short a price on top. (5) P C FREE WHEELING does her share of damage in this class when the trip goes her way – she’s usually a fair price, and never a bad one to give a look. (3) MANCLANE was a decent 3rd behind a couple of decent foes here 2 back, then picked up a win at Stga. last week – he may be able to work out a decent trip here, and be a player at a good price. (8) SKYWAY PROFESSOR lands all the way outside but has the speed to at least take a shot at improving at the start – another that could offer some decent value tonight. (2) J S HOPSCOTCH has been stuck on minor pieces lately and may be looking at more of the same tonight. (4) TOP ME OFF is capable of big miles, and that’s why he has 8 wins this year – he also seems well off his game right now, and risky at a fairly short price. (1) MR CONTESTANT is hard to gauge class-wise off his recent lines but the guess is he probably needs to be in a little cheaper. (7) UP HELLY AA raced well off the barn change but draws poorly while up in class
RACE 2 – Tough race: (3) DELIGHTFUL TERROR picked up wins in his last pair vs. the 15s and tries to make the jump tonight to 25s – most of the main players in here come with question marks, so perhaps this guy is up for the double bump. (4) ALOTBETTOR N got roughed up and tired in 30s last start and now drops down to face easier – he’s won 16 races here over the past 2 seasons, and would obviously be no surprise at all tonight. (2) YS DO IT RIG HT was able to shrug off that clunker from 2 back and rebounded with a very good 2nd last week (dropping to 20s) – moves up a notch to 25s here, but does feel like a good fit – possibility. (7) MR DUNNIGANS wasn’t bad here 3 back facing much better from Post 8, got parked the mile in his next, then was stuck first over at Chester in his last – brutal draw, but that 20-1 ML price does make him worth at least a look. (5) THE FLYING ROCK took 4 months off, raced ok in PA for a couple of starts but tired badly in his last, and now drops in for a tag – looking for a winning spot, or a red flag? (1) SULLIVAN drops after missing 24 days and definitely feels a little suspect. (6) KEY STONE DASH went out a blowout winner when claimed from his last – new barn, tough post, and a class jump for tonight
RACE 3 – Another good race: (7) TWO FACED made an unexpected miscue 2 back but bounced right back with a sharp try last week (against a repeat winner, while lacking clearance in the lane) – he may end up a decent price (because of the post), but does have a chance to beat these if he can find the right trip. (3) CAPTAIN T HANOVER has been a hard hitter in this class all year, and is certainly sharp right now – he goes for a new barn tonight, so there is at least a little question as to how we;; he’ll hold his form. (1) PORTERS MAN would have been right there in this class 2 back if not for a brief bobble on the final turn then he did beat a little easier off a good trip last week – deserves plenty of respect from the pole. (5) CAHOOTS raced well in all 3 starts since returning from PA, with a sharp victory last week – he steps up a bit, but still has to be feared. (8) LAST POUND hit board in 5 of his 6 local starts this year but will have a lot of work to do starting from out here. (4) KINGSTON PANIC grabbed a win off the perfect trip 2 back but then landed on a horrible journey last week – leaning more towards a few others. (6) VAN DALISM can often rally late when not used at all early on – not a bad bomb for 3rd/4th. (2) HUNT FOR CASH has disappointed more often than he’s delivered here this year
RACE 4 – (3) PASSIONATE PROMISE is very good at this level, that miscue 3 back being her only recent blip – she trotted home powerfully in the lane to take her last, and remains the one to knock off tonight. (2) ALL STAR SWAN will be driven by her (part) owner tonight and while that’s usually a negative, obviously NOT the case when Mr. Gingras is that owner – we’ve seen this crew have enormous success with fresh stock, so don’t be surprised if this mare shows up ready for action too. (4) WILLY WALTON is good right now, though usually a little tired at the end – remains a good one for the bottom of exotics. (5) BROOKVIEW DARIUS was an even 5th in his YR debut and eligible to keep improving – he does face a few tough ones in here, however. (1) BULLY BOY HILL did manage to behave last week (that’s been a problem at Yonkers) but also failed to threaten at all – tonight’s class drop can help him be a bigger player (IF he continues to mind his manners). (8) MAX was aggressive from Post 8 last week (with Brennan) and rewarded with a victory – Bartlett will get a chance to do the same here, but may be looking at a small slice in this tougher field. (6) ATTA GIRL DANI needed her last (off a bad date) but lands in a very tough spot here. (7) FIGHT SONG adds Lasix, but also lands in a brutal spot
RACE 5 – (4) BRROKDALE MIKI is 0 for 8 locally and does have some issues BUT he’s very good right now, goes 2nd time with Lasix, and will be hard to deny if close turning for home. (3) ON DAYBOO hasn’t won in some time but he’s been picking up lots of pieces vs. better – should be able to be a big player with these. (5) AIRY SHADOW was a little disappointing last week (off the two hole trip) but he should be able to leave for a spot in here too, and he may be able to add some value to the exotics. (6) CELLMATE fits with these, goes 2nd time for a new barn and first time for Yannick – good one to include underneath. (2) CHIP IN BLUE has been stuck on minor pieces and another good draw may help him to take home another. (1) MONACO HANOVER never really thrived for a couple of top shelf barns and just seems a bit below several of the others in here. (7) VOLTAGE BLUE CHIP moves from the pole to Post 7 after a dull try last week
RACE 6 – NAADA Amateur Fall Series: (3) STICK WITH ME KID got seriously brutalized 2 of the last 3 starts but has otherwise been a winning machine – feels like a good spot to rebound…and visit the photographer once again. (4) HOBBS returns off a couple of nice tries across the river and his pilot has proven she can handle a horse very well – good one for exotics. (1) CALL ME THEFIREMAN looked like he was going in the wrong direction for a few starts but then he bounced back to hit board in his last pair – solid threat to sit close and take home a good chunk. (2) LA MAGIC hasn’t done much lately but the inside draw may help him pick up some minor spoils. (5) DOO WOP KID has the ABILITY to go with these but his last 7 lines show 3 scratches, 2 breaks, and a pair of qualifiers – tough one to back right now. (8) BACARDI’s pilot finally picked up his first win of the season last week but he faces a major task trying to get near the action from out here. (6) SHINY NEW PENNY shows some ok tries in PA but she has no wins and just one 2nd from 25 starts this year, and will now be driven by her trainer. (7) TURBO CHARGEDPETE is struggling to get going this year, currently 11-0-1-0 on the season
RACE 7 – (4) DIAMANTE TRIO IT came into her last riding a modest 2 race winning streak and came within a neck of extending that to three – she should be headed right to the top again, and we’ll give her a chance to make amends. (3) P L NOTSONICE has been super all year so we’ll give her a pass for last week’s (rare) dud, especially since she drops right back in the box – look for her to bounce back with one of her sharper efforts. (5) WARRAWEE XENIA had been racing well since arriving here and finally was able to get over the hump and pick up a victory last week...her first win since 2022 – tonight’s draw could hurt a bit, but she should still be able to make her presence felt at some point. (6) QUEEN OF ALL has been solid in pretty much all of her recent starts, but landing outside here does figure to limit her to a smaller share. (2) CANTKEEPMIASECRET could probably use some class relief, but an easy trip could still land her a minor piece. (1) UNFORGETTABLE has been doing some good work vs. easier but has to prove she can hang with these tougher mares.
RACE 8 – (5) PAPPARDELLE hasn’t made too many starts this year but he’s certainly been good when on the track, going 6-3-1-1 so far – not sure why he wasn’t in the Miecuna Trot last Saturday but assuming it wasn’t because of any physical issue, he should be a big player here. (7) DJIMON has certainly taken a liking to Yonkers, winning three straight including last week’s demolition of the Invitational Field – Brennan has shown the utmost confidence in him, and he may be able to extend his streak to 4, despite the draw. (3) MISSISSIPPI STORM had no prayer from Post 8 last week but the newly minted millionaire moves back inside, and may be able to rally for a piece. (4) KEG STAND’s last is even more impressive when you consider that he was out for nearly a month before that start – steps back up to the top level, but does seem ready to be a player. (2) INFINITY STONE was able to hold on to 2nd last week behind runaway DJIMON – we’ll see if he can continue to overachieve in this class. (6) I GET IT makes his 3rd start off the layoff and seems like he still may be short
RACE 9 – (4) WARRAWEE YANG was freshened up after winning the Brennan Trotting Final but just didn’t come back sharp (didn’t help having to start right off in the Invitational) – he showed a bit more life 2 back, then followed that up with a nice win in PA…he gets reunited with Gingras tonight, and the pair are 4 for 4 together – we’ll try him on top. (5) UNEVERGONNAGETHIS moves up a notch after last week’s victory but this level is within his comfort zone when sharp – could be a very live player. (8) CRAZYLAND may take a shot at leaving (despite Post 8) and he has a chance to be in the conversation IF he can work out a manageable trip. (3) DWS POINT MAN gets a pass for his last as he left hard only to make a full retreat to 6th – he has too many good efforts this year to not deserve a chance to rebound – use in exotics. (2) HAT TRICK MARLEAU was a good 3rd 2 back followed by last week’s sharp victory – takes a step up in class, but may be sharp enough right now to still contend for a piece. (1) BEERTHIRTY K probably would like to be in a little easier but the rail draw at least puts him in play for a piece. (6) RITSON has 4 local tries and finished 3rd in each start – tonight’s outside draw will put that streak in jeopardy. (7) NO DRAMA PLEASE is sharp for sure, but also moves up 2 classes while landing outside
RACE 10 – (1) WALKINSHAW N drops to the basement while in solid form, can get very aggressive from the pole and looms the one to beat from this spot. (4) IKES DREAM was used hard in a hot mile in his local debut and really didn’t tire all that badly – could be the main danger, but that 8/5 ML price makes him hard to consider for the top slot (no value). (6) RAYRAY added Lasix 2 back and charged home to be a close 3rd – wasn’t nearly as effective with a tougher trip last week, but may be able to sit back and rally again for a nice chunk tonight. (5) AUSSIE HAN OVER picked up a pair of 3rds after dropping to this level and could grab a similar slice tonight. (2) VESPA N is on the cheaper side but did win his last (at Tioga), and the good draw at least puts him in play for some minor spoils. (3) RULE OF LAW also draws well, but his 16-0-1-1 record this year is hard to ignore. (8) PICARD A (Anthony Stabile’s favorite horse!) was a heavily-backed, form reversing winner at Monti last week…but may be hard pressed to replicate that kind of effort from this much tougher spot. (7) MAJOR SHOW is just 1 for 26 locally over the last 3 years, draws poorly, and doesn’t seem all that sharp out of town right now
RACE 11 – (2) TASTE OF HONEY appeared to benefit from the barn change 2 back, wiring softer with a nice wake up call victory – he drew poorly up in class for his next but still was a very game (close) 4th, despite a tough trip – moves inside, and may be able to take advantage. (7) CASINO ACTION N is light in the win column this year but he’s been going a lot of good miles vs. much better recently – has a pilot not afraid to send one, and a quick start could make this guy a dangerous player. (8) ROLLING WITH SAM has been sharp for a long time, continuing to race well despite a seemingly endless run of tough trips – unfortunately, tonight’s draw will probably have him looking at another brutal journey. (1) EMINEM HANOVER is on the cheaper side but he’s sharp enough right now to at least contend for a piece from this spot. (3) BILL HALEY N hasn’t clicked since the 7/30 claim…but a form reversal figures to be coming one of these nights – maybe consider if the price is big enough. (4) WATERLOO has some good lines out of town but does seem a bit cheaper than some of the main players. (5) DELESTON is another that has been facing lesser out of town. (6) CAVIART SARGENT was one of the barn’s recent big-priced form reversing winners…who quickly reverted to their lesser form immediately after