Friday Empire Report

soaofny • May 5, 2023

The Empire Report - Friday, May 5, 2023 - Race Analysis

RACE 1 - (1) STATEMENT MADE A hasn't been overly sharp lately but he hasn't been "terrible" either -

gets a drop to the bottom claiming level tonight, and also gets to decide whether he cuts this mile, or sits the

pocket...big threat either way, but probably not a great idea to bet the rent money at a short price. (5) TOAT

SMYGOATS got back to the winner's circle last week after a trio of 3rd place finishes - Kakaley opts to

steer #1 tonight, but this guy remains the main danger with Brennan on board. (4) AWESOMENESS had

some pace finishing last week and it was his best sign of life in a long time - worth including in exotics

here, and maybe even deserves a look on top (if the price is right). (2) HEART ON MY SLEEVE was an all

out 3rd last week off an easy trip - he's capable of better efforts, and is a logical one for the bottom of

exotics tonight. (8) ROCK N TONY did leave from Post 8 last week but was unable to produce a 2nd move

- ok bomb for 3rd/4th. (3) FOLLOW YOUR HEART raced pretty well off a brutal trip 3 back but was

unable to build off that effort - needs to be better. (6) CASHNCAM has been dull in the majority of recent

starts - tough draw tonight won't help. (7) HEARTLANDBANYSBRO has really been struggling - looking

for some better signs before considering.


RACE 2 - Short field, but a good race! (1) DIVISION BELL was starting to get into the habit of

disappointing but he reversed that trend with last week's sharp, stretch rallying victory - he takes a

confident step up to 25s, can be handled more aggressively with the rail draw, and may be able to make it 2

in a row (the price will be hurt by that 6/5 ML, however). (2) MAJESTIC KIWI N took an ambitious leap

up to 25s for his new connections last week but drew Post 8, and was hurt by early interference - he was

very sharp prior to that, and figures to be a decent price tonight - consider. (4) DESIRES CAPTAIN was re-

claimed by his previous barn on 4/21 and paid instant dividends with last week's victory - he's been very

good lately, and the right trip gives him a legitimate chance tonight. (5) SOUTHPORT BEACH shipped in

sharp from NJ and came up 2nd best on 4/14 after a front end try - he made an unexpected break on the first

turn last week but drops right back in the box, and stays in for $25K for possibly the hottest barn at the

moment - another possibility! (3) SULLIVAN hasn't clicked yet since the 3/15 claim but he's another that's

racing for a currently red-hot barn....maybe a wake up call is coming?


RACE 3 - (3) PRO BEACH appreciated the class relief and easy trip and was able to pick up a 2nd behind

the very sharp winner last week - he drops again tonight, catches a very shaky field, and was a winner the

last time he raced at this bottom level - won't offer any value, but definitely the one to knock off. (2) ON

THE VIRG would be hard to like off his current lines but he's the type that's eligible for a wake up call at

any time - not a bad one to take a stab with if you're not a fan of the top choice. (4) EDDARD HANOVER

has been racing ok in NJ and certainly fits with these types - he's always been camera shy at YR, however,

and he's also 0 for 13 overall in 2023....would need a pretty good price to consider him for the top slot. (5)

HES ELECTRIC hasn't exactly been thriving lately but he has one good move in him, and would have a

chance to be a late threat IF the race just falls apart. (7) ENVIRONS HANOVER may look over and take a

shot at leaving tonight....but it won't be easy for him to get the job done from out here, even with a good

start. (1) SILAS SEELSTER only made 9 starts in 2022 and isn't look all that good (so far) in 2023 - maybe

the rail draw can help him grab a piece? (6) GRATIAN HANOVER will always be remembered as the

horse that turned his owner from on-air commentator to training sensation literally overnight - while the

barn continues to thrive, it seems this old boy has definitely seen better days - hard to make a case for him

right now, even at this bottom level.


RACE 4 - (1) EUPHORIA N went an insane mile last week, looking completely hopeless after the start

(while weakly parked) to just wearing down the leader to the top of the lane and winning powerfully -

Kakaley is back on board and while he faces a tougher crew tonight, the good draw could help offset that -

willing to stay on board one more time. (2) CAN BE PERFECT used the class relief and a perfect trip to

score in NJ last week, establishing a new lifetime mark in the process - returns at a level he beat here on

2/27, and looms a very dangerous rival (4) LONG WEEKEND A followed up the sharp wake up all victory

2 back with another good effort last week (weakened a bit at the end after a good first over bid - include in

exotics. (6) MOTIVE HANOVER was facing better in his starts here earlier this year but does seem to have

fallen off form a bit lately - would need a decent price to try him on top from this spot. (5) B LIKE CRUIS

ER has been racing ok lately - he's one of several moving up in class here...and one of several with a

chance for a piece, with the right trip. (3) HYPNOTICDREAM drops a peg, but his best work does seem to

come with a bit easier - leaning to others. (7) VESPA N comes into tonight off a pair of back to back front

end scores, but he'll have a tough time replicating those efforts from out here, against these tougher foes.

(8) LISBURN is the outsider, both literally and figuratively.


RACE 5 - (7) MISS DOTTIE MAE was well backed but came up 2nd best to a sharp VIOLETS RAINBO

W 2 back, then made amends with last week's blowout front end score - the homebred has developed into a

very nice mare, and should have enough speed to at least find herself a good early spot - she fits this class

for one more win, and we'll see if she can pick it up tonight. (3) SAUBLE DELIGHTFUL gets her first

decent draw in a while, and she's gone some big miles here this year - good week to give her a look, at that

15-1 ML price. (5) LAURIE LEE continues to sharpen in her current barn, and steps up off a blowout score

over easier - wouldn't be shocked if she was able to make her presence felt tonight. (2) MCMARKLE SPA

RKLE just hasn't been the same this year, and a move to our leading barn really hasn't helped all that much

- she fits well enough (even in her current form) to be a player here, but also figures to be overbet. (1) GIN

GER TREE LIZ is off to an overall slowish start to her 2023 campaign - she really wasn't bad last week (off

a poor trip), and may be able to squeeze out a small piece from this spot. (8) UPTOWN HANOVER rallied

nicely for 2nd behind the top choice 2 back, then was a front end winner in her last - she's a very nice fit

with these, but will need to find some way to overcome Post 8. (4) COMMANDER CATHY N doesn't win

very often, but she's good at picking up decent pieces - never a bad one to use underneath. (6) TECHYS

ANGEL A has been solid since adding Lasix 3 back, but tonight's draw may limit her a bit.


RACE 6 - (5) AIR FORCE HANOVER was making his 2nd start for his old barn last week - the tote board

suggested a BIG effort was coming and that's exactly what we got (a 7 length blowout in an eye popping

1:51.4) - hard to go against him tonight off that mile, even though another short price is looming. (4) SHA

KESPEARE raced well from a couple of hopeless spots (for his new barn) so it was no surprise to see him

turn last week's better draw into a sharp victory - if the top choice fails to match last week's scary effort,

this guy might have a shot to beat him. (6) SILENT SPLENDOR has been racing very well at this level, but

will only have 3 days off after racing on Monday night - hard to really know what to expect from him here.

(1) RHODENA ROAD had been having a rough 2023 but did come to life last start (after taking 3 weeks

off), easily handling softer - we'll see if gets him going, or if he simply landed in a weak spot for that win.

(3) BLUEBIRD RECON has been using quick starts to take home pieces recently - maybe he can stick

around for another small share tonight? (2) DARLINGS DRAGON has struggled in all 3 local starts this

year - may need a class drop before we see a more competitive effort from him.


RACE 7 - (2) MARTY MONKHOUSER A came up 2nd best to MINGO JOEL 2 back (no shame there)

then just missed last week to a hard charging DIVISION BELL - the 14YO already has 5 wins this year,

and this feels like a spot where he may pick up another. (1) MACINTOSH N (the OTHER 14YO in here)

drops from 25s to 20s after a couple of "ok" tries (he was 2nd both times, but lost to a horse that never wins

2 back, then got beat after a :59.1 opening half last week) - he just doesn't feel as sharp as the top choice

right now, but obviously still deserves lots of respect. (3) SHOREVIEW never seems to win but has put

together a nice streak that has seen him hit board in 6 of his last 7 starts - hard to leave him out of exotics.

(6) GOTHIC ROCK disappoints more than he delivers but he drops down to 20s, will be a big price, and is

definitely one for longshot fans to consider. (4) DENMARK SEELSTER got very sharp immediately upon

joining our leading barn on 3/3 (in NJ)....but he's been gradually leveling off, and would be hard to endorse

for more than a smaller piece right now. (8) JK LUCKY CHARMS has some good recent efforts, often at

big prices - wasn't up for the tough trip last week, however, and now gets stuck with Post 8. (5) LYONS

JOHNNYJNR was claimed for $30K on 3/6, took off until qualifying on 4/26 and now drops in for $10K

LESS...feels like major red flags here. (7) DECOY has just enough speed to leave and get in trouble from

out here - waiting for a better spot before giving him a better look.


RACE 8 - Difficult race as ALL these mares are sharp, have varying degrees of "class", and the driver

strategies are hard to predict! (3) MAN DONTGFORGET ME was moved to a new barn last week and

promptly hammered at the windows - she came up just a little short from the pocket behind the

ever-winning MILLWOOD BONNIE N, but perhaps she can get it done tonight...at a bigger price. (5)

LUCKY ARTIST A didn't bring her best in the Matchmaker Final but she's been a rock solid performer for

a long time - she handles any trip, and is always worth a look when the price is right. (8) DRAMA ACT

raced conservatively from a tough spot in the Final but did finish crisply for 4th - she gets stuck all the way

outside for her first post-Series start, and perhaps the tote board will give clues to her seriousness from out

here. (1) DRAGONS LUCKY LADY has held her own in the Open in the past, and could be looking at a

good trip tonight - one of many with a chance to be there late, depending on the way the race plays out. (7)

LIT DE ROSE was super all through the Matchmaker, and that includes her hard charging 2nd in the Final -

she would be the clear choice tonight had she drawn inside....but with the likelihood of an overly

conservative try coming, you'd want a good price to try her from out here. (6) VIOLETS RAINBOW had a

brief rough patch but has earned her way back up to the Open by winning 3 of her last 4 starts - the draw

definitely didn't go her way, though. (2) JIVE DANCING A never seems to go a bad one, although she's

used to facing a bit easier - ok to use underneath at a big price. (4) PURE SILKY is 14-7-3-3 this year - the

fact that she's being listed on the bottom paints a clear picture of just how evenly matched this field is!


RACE 9 - Hard to really "like" the chances of any of these...but we'll try to find some angles in a struggling

field: (1) MAJOR SHOW is 0 for 14 this year and 0 for 16 in his YR career - he DID show some life in

each of his last 2 starts, though, and draws best for tonight - maybe he found a field where he can get over

the hump? (3) GINGRAS BEACH hasn't even hit board in 8 straight starts but he moves inside, and is

likely looking at an aggressive steer from this spot - maybe he can come to life on the front end? (4)

LYONS LIBERTY has had 4 starts back since the layoff and only managed one (perfect trip) 3rd - he does

drop and has a chance off that alone...but also figures to be overbet. (6) BETTER B SWIFT was no factor

in either start since the claim but this is a weaker field- another that could show improvement this week. (7)

SWAGASAURUSREX has no speed and will be coming from well back - he's also a little better than he

looks right now, and may be able to sneak onto the ticket at a big price (if the race just falls apart). (5) EPIC

ACE was no factor in 4 starts since the layoff...that being said, he's no worse than anybody else in here. (2)

BUTTER UP is 11-0-0-1 this year facing bottom level horses in PA. (8) HURRIKANE GEORGIE had an

amazing 2022 season...but hasn't been close to that form in ages.


RACE 10 - (3) SWEET SOUL DAVID has been holding his own vs. better in many starts this year - lands

in a soft spot for tonight, and is hard to go past in the finale. (1) HAT TRICK MARLEAU has had a pretty

rough year so far, and actually fits the BOTTOM class right now - that being said, this is a logical spot to

look for a wake up call, particularly since he should end up sitting a pretty easy trip. (2) LUCKY WEEKEN

D has been a very consistent player lately, even if vs. a bit easier - can see him grabbing another nice piece,

as long as the trip works out well. (4) BLUEBIRD JESSE is hard to like off his recent form but as noted,

his barn has been heating up and perhaps he'll be the next to come to life. (6) BRAVE BY DESIGN came

back in good form after 4 months off but he comes into tonight having missed 3+ weeks after skipping the

Brennan Consolation - tough draw, and leaning towards others. (5) MEMO has had better success this year

vs. cheaper - will look better next week with some class relief. (7) PERRON does fit with these but has

struggled in all 4 local starts when he's drawn outside. (8) TAXI OUT S was a non-threatening 2nd in his

only local try, but that was vs. easier - prefer to wait for a better spot before hopping on his team.

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