Monday Empire Report

soaofny • November 21, 2022

The Empire Report - Monday, November 21, 2022 - Race Analysis

RACE 1 - (5) VELOCITY KOMODO was a front end winner (as the favorite) the last time he dropped

down to this level - lands in a well matched field here, but just may be able to leave tonight, and replicate

that last winning performance. (2) SAULSBROOK HERO's last win also came in this class, and he's been

raving ok lately vs. better - legitimate chance from this spot. (6) WALKINSHAW N hasn't won in a while

but he's a decent number of 2nds and 3rds over the last few months - can be a dangerous late threat if the

pace gets hotly contested up front. (8) GENIUS MAN can hold his own (and sometimes beat) better than

these, but tonight's class drop may be offset by the terrible draw - would at least consider if the price was

juicy enough. (1) MACHEASY A would look super one level down but he can beat these too when on his

best game - came up a little light from a similar spot last week, but we'll see if he can come up sharper this

time around. (3) ESCAPETOTHBEACH was well backed last week but really disappointed - just doesn't

seem to be on his game right now. (7) COALITION HANOVER has been both sharp and consistent, but

the class hike and 7 hole may slow him down some tonight. (4) MY CARBON COPY N was scratched sick

after winning here on 10/8 (one level down) - qualified back nicely, but still sticking with others for now.


RACE 2- (4) OZONE BLUE CHIP woke up a with a big one when a nose loss 2nd two back, then

followed that up with last week's razor sharp front end score - he's a streaky performer, and does seem to be

hitting on all cylinders right now - chance to repeat. (5) DON DOMINGO N has been on his top game for a

long time and doesn't seem to care what trip he lands on- legitimate threat every time he's in the box. (2) B

LIKE CRUISER out together along winning streak this summer - hit a brief rough patch, but has been

looking good every week since the recent claim - belongs in exotics. (6) SMOKIN BY N is a rock solid

player in this class but his aggressive try was snuffed by the top choice last week, and tonight's outside

draw won't make things any easier for him. (1) OUR CORELLI N has put together an excellent season, but

he's probably a little more comfortable facing a little easier - the rail draw does put him in play for a piece,

though. (3) GREAT SOMEWHERE improved dramatically after joining our (former) leading barn in early

Sept. - he rattle off 3 in a row before a couple of "excuse lines" in the 3&4YO Open, but then took some

time off before re-qualifying for a new listed trainer - prefer to just watch, for now.


RACE 3 - (5) WICHITA LINEMAN was off form for a few starts but is clearly back on his game, and

comes into tonight off the impressive first over score - hard to predict his trip from this spot, but fortunately

he can handle himself on or off the pace - narrow edge. (2) MIKEY CAMDEN has held his own vs. the 75s

and is surely most capable in 50s - got a bit unlucky when shuffled last week, and he's one that should be

considered here at that 9-1 ML price (1) SAYING GRACE N wasn't a threat in NJ last week but his overall

recent form is solid, and this trainer is always a threat shipping in (especially with Bartlett on the team). (7)

SHERIFF N continues to bounce between barns without ever missing a beat - he's won half of his 21 local

starts this year and is almost always a big threat....but tonight's draw does figure to make things a lot

tougher for him. (4) BARBADOS is the "x factor" in here - on his best, he can go some HUGE efforts...but

he hasn't been quite right since a little time off, and it's hard to know what we'll get from him tonight. (3)

WEONA SIZZLER A has been struggling against these types for some time - he did win his last across the

river, but that was vs. much cheaper....prefer others. (6) BLUEBIRD RECON has had a terrific year but is

showing some wear and tear right now - hard to like him from this spot. (8) PURPLE POET tries it from

Post 8 for a new barn after failing badly from the rail at this level last week.


RACE 4 - (2) PRICELESS BEACH qualified very nicely off a brief freshening but was content to race

conservatively last week after drawing outside - paced a big final 3/8ths, and that should have him more

than ready for an aggressive try tonight - the one to beat. (5) ROCKAPELO was "sneaky good" in his 1st

two starts off the qualifier then put it all together to win last week, beating a classy rival - could contend for

a big piece here too. (1) BRAEVIEW BONDI A was hurt badly by poor posts the last 2 weeks but should

be looking at a much better trip tonight - include in exotics. (7) BLANK STARE found enough at the end to

rally by for a win 2 back, then might have been even sharper last week when he roared home for 2nd -

Bartlett may need to leave a bit tonight to give this guy a chance to be a player. (8) THE WILD CARD

hasn't won in some time but he's been remarkably consistent week after week - not sure he'll be able to get

in play with the move outside, though. (3) MIKES Z TAM brings a 2 race win streak into this but he'll also

be facing much tougher - generally just grabs pieces against this type. (4) FAMILY RECIPE has a couple of

recent wins but not against this caliber - not sure he can be as big a threat with these. (6) CAN BE

PERFECT can throw a good one at times, but he draws outside and has missed 3 weeks.


RACE 5 - (1) PACE N PRIDE N disappointed for a few starts recently but looked much better last week -

he's beaten better than these, and will be a solid threat tonight if anywhere close to his top form. (4) THE

REAL ONE moved inside while dropping in class last week and delivered a much sharper try, right there

3rd after losing cover on the final turn - the winner of over $1.5M is a major danger as he drops one notch

more. (6) MACH N CHEESE has been reasonably sharp vs. better, so it was no surprise to see him come

up a winner last week after being handled aggressively - steps back up tonight (while drawing Post 6), but

still can make his presence felt with the right journey. (5) SOHO LENNON A raced better than expected

last week, charging home full of pace from the back to be a close 4th - if he can replicate that effort here, he

may be able to land somewhere on the ticket. (3) BIG SIR seems to do his winning vs. cheaper but that last

mile shows that the right trip can help him grab pieces with this type too - include underneath. (2) MARLB

ANK ROAD is a little out of his element against these but the inside draw may allow him to tow along for

a minor share. (7) BELTANE A is pretty hard to predict from week to week but even his best effort might

not be enough to do significant damage from out here. (8) PRETTY HANDSOME has been "ok" only most

weeks- would need to be a lot better to threaten from all the way out here.


RACE 6 - (1) THE REGULATOR added Lasix in NJ last week but never had a chance after sitting 10th -

he was facing better than this in his recent local starts, and he'll get every opportunity to strut his stuff

tonight - he's 0 for 12 locally, however, so don't bet the mortgage money if he's a very short price. (2) PAT

RIOT NATION wasn't bad at all here 2 back vs. a much stronger field, then got shuffled in NJ last week- he

should be a very live player tonight, but he's another that's been historically camera shy here at YR. (4)

STOP STARING moved to a barn that usually improves fresh stock significantly and that's exactly what

happened to him - raced big in a narrow loss, but he does face tougher here....consider on top if the price if

square. (6) LEVINE had been pretty sharp so last week's 3rd (off the beautiful two hole trip) was definitely

disappointing - he'll be a much better price now if you want to give him another chance. (5) VIVA LAS

VEGAS N seems more likely to contend for a smaller piece than a bigger one but he's listed at 20-1 ML

and he's a bit better than that - consider for exotics. (7) GINGRAS BEACH draws poorly and hasn't raced

in 3 weeks - he's good enough for a piece if things go his way, so he's not a bad one to include for 3rd/4th.

(3) RAUKAPUKA RULER N has been away for 4 weeks after making a break in his last - hard to consider

at that 3-1 ML price. (8) GAMBLINGTERROR tripped out and was able to win his last, but he's facing an

uphill battle tonight from Post 8 (up in class).


RACE 7 - Tough race: (2) THRASHER shipped in to Stga. from Ohio and won both of his starts (as the

odds on choice) - it's a little hard to gauge him class-wise but he's obviously sharp, and he lands in a field

full of suspect rivals - we'll give him a shot in his local debut. (5) LYONS JOHNNYJNR was ignored from

Post 7 dropping down to 30s last start but he was absolutely full of pace finishing once Kakaley found him

some room- he's missed 3 weeks, but still has to be considered a serious threat here (4) KEYSTONE DASH

is a seriously streaky horse and went from "super" to "terrible" on 9/26 - he's been away for 4 weeks, but he

can be very dangerous here IF the time off helps him....tough call, and would need a good price to take a

chance on him. (1) PLAY THE FIELD was super here in 2021 but got off to a terrible start earlier in 2022

(12-0-1-2) - he's been doing much better out of town lately, and has been pretty popular at the claim box -

always a chance he shows up sharp enough to wire these for his new connections. (3) SHARK PLAY was

in too tough off the claim last start but should do better dropping back in for $30K - possibility. (6) LATE

MAIL N is 1 for 22 here this year after going 1 for 14 last year - willing to consider for a small piece only.

(7) PROVOCATIVEPRINCEN seems to have tailed a bit - the class drop could help, but it may be offset

by the bad draw. (8) REAL LUCKY N was an even 4th off the claim last week and he does like to win

races - the downside is that he draws Post 8 with only one start in the last 6 weeks.


RACE 8 - (7) LEONIDAS A returns to The Hilltop after racing very well for 4th in the Potomac....while

pacing his back half in :52.4 in a world record mile - obviously this is NOT an ideal spot, but he's still

worth using on top as long as he's not overbet (which he probably won't be). (2) OAKWOODINITOWINIT

IR has finally found his top form and is delivering it every week now - handled his jump to the Open

beautifully last start as he made a razor sharp NONE BETTOR A work very hard to hold him off - chance

he could spring a mild upset tonight. (4) COVERED BRIDGE failed to threaten last week but had been

sharp for weeks prior to that - could bounce back with a good one tonight. (3) NANDOLO N hasn't been on

his "best" game lately, but he certainly hasn't been "bad", either - may be able to rally for a piece. (1) SEMI

TOUGH is usually a notch below these, but the good draw could land him a trip that puts him somewhere

on the ticket. (6) ODDS ON CAPITALISM really impressed in his first 2 local starts, beating older horses

both times (with gutsy performances) - he'll need to show he can do it at this Open level, though. (5) BUD

DY HILL is being listed on the bottom only because he's been away for a month - he was clearly very sharp

before the time off.


RACE 9 - (1) DEETZY dropped down to 30s last week and was a pocket winner....his last start at this level

was a front victory -- draws the pole in a field with nothing too scary in it, and has a chance to grab another.

(7) POSH ONTHE BEACH A has now drawn terribly in 5 of his last 6 starts...the only time he drew well

(Post 4) he was used almost every step of the way, and still finished 2nd - he's good enough to beat these

WITH some trip luck, and he's listed at 20-1 ML -- consider! (5) FLOW WITH JOE benefited from a "fall

apart" race in that victory 2 back but was actually good again last week, from an impossible spot - chance

here with the right trip. (3) SULLIVAN is a solid 30 when on his game, but his last couple suggest he may

be tailing a bit - we'll get a better read after tonight. (6) SHOREVIEW used an easy trip to pick up 3rd last

week but the tough draw tonight may limit him a bit - maybe 3rd/4th? (4) URBAN RENEWAL was a

winner 3 back in a race that REALLY fell apart, but did little before or after that - just lags for way too long

every week. (2) LATEST ERA ships back from PcD and just seems a little cheaper than these.


RACE 10 - (2) BRACKLEY BEACH has now taken 4 of his last 5 starts, with a 2nd (off track) in the other

- there are a number of other sharp horses in here, but sometimes it's good to just stick with the hot hand.

(1) GOTHIC ROCK has held his form very well as he's climbed the class ladder, and has hit board in 5

straight local starts - hard to not include him in exotics. (7) MACH DORO A has appreciated the drop to

40s and was a winner in this class last week - he'll need some trip luck to come out on top from Post 7, but

a good price makes him worth considering. (3) DARK ENERGY N was an upset winner in this class last

week, even if helped by a very nice trip - the inside draw puts him in play for another good chunk tonight.

(4) SHINE A LIGHT is the latest horse that sprouted wings after joining our (former) leading barn (in Sept)

to now appear with a new trainer listed - we'll be keeping an eye on all of these to see if any kind of pattern

emerges. (5) MARCO BEACH was an ok 4th last week but really does his best damage racing on/near the

lead - just not sure that's possible here. (6) ASTON HILL DAVE was a 27-1 upsetter last week and though

helped by an incident off turn three, he was still very good - tough post tonight, however. (8) CHANGE

STRIDE N was "first time Dynamic Duo" last week but that angle just hasn't been the same lately, and he

tired to 5th after cutting the mile - hard to recommend from Post 8 tonight.

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