The Empire Report - Thursday, December 21, 2023 - Race Analysis
RACE 1 - (7) EPOS OSTERVANG DK has hit board in an amazing 21 of 24 starts this year, can leave like
a rocket from any post and his trainer (by far the leading barn in 2023) is even hotter than usual right now -
we'll try him on top in the opener. (6) ABRUZZO is 6 for 20 here this year and has plenty of ability when
"right" - but he's also made more than his share of miscues, and drops in for a tag after folding last week -
very tough call for tonight. (8) STEUBEN HANOVER is hitting on all cylinders right now but gets no luck
with the draw - he'll need some trip luck for a chance at the top prize, but still worth considering if the price
creeps up. (2) BRAVE BY DESIGN hails from a barn that has turned in their usual high % season, and he's
a solid fit at this level- we'll see if he can use his post advantage to give the top trio a serious tussle. (1) ICE
BREAKERS K has had good success out of town this year but vs. easier - we'll see if he can hang with the
local 50s, especially with the inside draw. (3) STARLIT RAMBO has actually had a good year overall but
has just one win and no seconds from 19 local starts - leaning towards others. (5) YES raced well here for a
couple of starts but may be tailing now. (4) SHEENA SOLDIER went a couple of surprisingly good tries at
this level but may have leveled off a bit - mixed feelings about her chances for tonight
RACE 2 - (4) HURRIKANE GEORGIE had been razor sharp for a bunch of starts before running into
terrible trips the last 2 weeks- he should be a good price here, and is worth a play (hoping for some better
luck). (3) BRUSHING UP charged home full of pace after shaking free last week and has been solid in
most of his recent efforts - another decent value play in this competitive affair. (6) UP THE CREEK has
been 1st or 2nd in 9 of 13 starts this year but was overdriven last week and faded to 6th - if Bongiorno can
find him an easier journey tonight, he's another with a very legitimate chance to come out on top. (2) BLO
ODHOUND was an upset winner 2 back when he landed on a beautiful trip but never got close from Post 8
last week- much better spot now, and another good trip could see him back in the mix (1) FULL SUPPORT
has taken 2 of 3 local starts but he was tiring in both wins, pacing final quarters in 30 and change - could be
a bit vulnerable at a short price here. (5) SHUFFLE UP HANOVER comes off a break in his last and is
another that could end up overbet in this well matched field - better value with others, on top. (7) STOP ST
ARING figures to get a conservative steer after being used hard the last 3 starts - could be at a disadvantage
(8) YS DO IT RIGHT perked up with an excellent 2nd last start but tonight's draw is a killer
RACE 3 - (1) FOR A DREAMER went from leaving hard last to retreating to last, but was still full of trot
at the wire - the move inside stamps him as the one to beat tonight (as he did 2 starts back). (3) IN MY DR
EAMS has been an iron horse the past 2 years, making 77 starts and banking about $260K - solid threat to
land somewhere on the ticket tonight. (6) MACMORRIS HANOVER was "sneaky good" last week -
another tough spot, but that 20-1 ML makes him a good one to try to get onto the ticket. (7) P L OSCAR
may end up with a very tough trip from this spot but he's board in all of his recent local starts, and his barn
suddenly caught fire recently - another to include on the bottom of exotics. (4) QUIKSILVR BLUECHIP
had been disappointing recently but came up with a better one last week - we'll see if he can build off that.
(5) EMPEREURTHEBEST FR has done some good work since recently changing hands but caved badly
after trying to cut the mile last week - maybe he can do better here with a "sit and rally" trip? (2) MUFASA
AS has his moments....just not enough of them to rate any higher tonight. (8) RIPPLE OF HOPE broke in
his local debut and figures to be handled very conservatively from Post 8 tonight
RACE 4 - Short field, but not an easy race! (5) NOWS THE MOMENT has enjoyed an outstanding season
(9 wins, over $200K) but came up a little short in his last pair - hard to say just how this race will go, but
this guy may see his price drift up a bit tonight - gets a narrow edge. (3) CREDIT CON hadn't been on his
best game recently but was able to convert off the pocket trip last week- may trip out again. (4) WARRIOR
ONE did a beautiful job winning his way back up to the Open level, and has a pair of 2nds from his last 3
tries in this top class - has to be respected in his current form. (1) HAYEK draws the pole for the deadliest
trainer/driver tandem in town but he's just 2 for 26 here over the last 2 years and does his best work with
cheaper. (2) PAPA DOC has earned his way to the Open with back to back wins vs. the 50s - he's a nice
trotter, but will need to prove that he can stick with THESE types
RACE 5 - (3) MY ULTIMATE STAR A can usually hold his own with better than these but did throw a
dud from the pocket last week - drops right back in the box, goes back to Bartlett, and lands in a pretty
formless field - won't offer any value, but probably the one to beat. (2) GOOD INVESTMENT is just
5-0-0-1 here this year but he's raced ok a couple of times and taken some $$ as well - maybe Kakaley can
wake him up a bit? (8) BRONX SEELSTER was able to grab a pocket trip from Post 8 last week but
squandered it, tiring 5th - could be vulnerable again at a fairly short price. (7) MACHIATTO A wasn't
involved from Post 8 last week but wasn't terrible - he'll be a big price here, and may have a chance for a
share IF his pilot takes a chance to improve a bit at the start. (4) RANDOM HANOVER is just 14-0-1-2
here this year but still looks better than a few of these. (6) NOWHERE CREEK A picked up small scarps in
his last pair, but may have a tougher time doing so from Post 6. (5) FOREVER FAV returns after missing 4
months - prefer to just watch, for now. (1) AINT HE SPECIAL has been an afterthought for nearly all of
2023
RACE 6 - Tough race! (8) WILLY WALTON has been good, and probably deserves a pass for not being a
threat last week (as the top 3 finishers would all be odds-on favorites in this softer field) - obviously much
luck will be needed to win from out here, but a big price makes him worth a flyer. (4) DIAMANTE TRIO
IT wasn't at her best last start but has otherwise been rock solid for weeks in the NW6 class - catches a soft
bunch as she drops in for a tag, and may prove a very good fit with these. (3) PERRON worked for the lead
last week and paid for it late in the mile - an easier trip could make him a very live player. (1) HAVEHORS
WILTRVEL N just nabbed 3rd after an easy trip in his local debut - he was a good performer Down Under,
and may be tighter for his 2nd local try - ok for exotics. (7) HAT TRICK MARLEAU has 2 wins and a 2nd
from his last 3 starts but faces an uncertain trip at a short price tonight - MAY be a bit vulnerable. (5) JAC
KED broke 2 back and had Post 8 last week - he did deliver the 10-1 upset the week before, however, so
don't toss him too quickly. (2) VEGAS TICKET seemed a bit overmatched in his local debut - we'll see if
he improves tonight. (6) ABBEY D is 5/2 ML but has struggled in this class in the past - no value
RACE 7 - (6) WORLD FOR TWO raced very well in first 3 local starts (2 wins and a 7 hole 3rd) but made
a costly miscue before the start last week - if he can shrug that off, he'll have a chance to beat these...has to
be worth a play at that 8-1 ML price. (3) SPRINGBRIDGE DUEL got a very foolish drive last week and
paid the price, finishing up the track after getting parked the mile - should benefit from the switch to
Lachance, and could rebound with a good mile tonight- consider if the price is decent enough. (1) BETTOR
ROLL ON A hasn't been great out of town but he's also been facing better - could see him perking up in his
Hilltop return with the rail and Holland. (5) JIM BLUE is still winless on the year and comes into this off a
rough night that saw him used early, then backing up through the field - still a reasonable one to include in
exotics. (2) ELM GROVE QWIGGLY has been limited to smaller pieces in this class and may be looking
at more of the same tonight. (4) EMINEM HANOVER has been a little better lately, but still seems to be
only a threat for a minor share. (8) ODDS ON PICK SIX weakened to 3rd off a pocket trip last week and
now starts from Post 8 - better value with others. (7) PINE BUSH ITALIANO is 13-0-0-1 at YR in '23
RACE 8 - (6) WHAT SHOULD I GOO came into her last off a pair of rough outings - she was allowed to
just sit in the back and rally late and that was just what the doctor ordered, charging home full of trot in a
big time confidence builder - we'll try her tonight against last week's winner. (7) HELPOFTHESEASON
made her local debut a winning one, joining our leading barn and responding as predicted as the 3/5 choice
- she remains the one to beat, but will face a much tougher test tonight. (3) NO TURNING BACK also won
her local debut last week, but vs. much easier - she'll have to prove that she can step with the top pair. (4)
QUEEN OF ALL tailed in October and took some time off - guessing she'll need a start or two off that
qualifier. (5) LADY JETER used an easy inside trip to pick up 3rd last week, but may have a tougher time
tonight. (1) ANDOVER CONTESSA broke 2 back then disappointed in her last - needs to pick up her
game. (2) MUSKINGUM just looks a bit too cheap to be a serious player with these mares
RACE 9 - Not the Open, but a VERY strong NW3000o Trot! (5) THE HAZLETON had a strong 3YO
campaign in Canada, but made a costly miscue in the $219K OnSS Final - was purchased by the leading
barn in the nation after that and has gone 3 big efforts in the Open at The Meadows - catches a strong field
tonight, but we'll give him the narrow nod. (7) PAPPARDELLE acted like he would blossom into a top
trotter at 4 and that's exactly what he's done - he's a legitimate Open threat, but somehow still fits this class
- legitimate danger even from Post 7. (4) OUTSIDE THE FIRE has returned razor sharp from a freshening,
flying home from hopeless spots in back to back starts - clearly on his game right now, and we'll see if he
can go with the top pair. (6) ROYALTY BEER was both opportunistic AND sharp in winning his local
debut, then was right there 3rd trying the Open last week - would normally have been a solid play with the
class drop, but lands in a field that's just MUCH tougher than usual for this level - still can be a player with
the right trip. (3) TIPSY MONI wasn't all that impressive in her first 2 wins after the big barn change but
that last victory was more like it - hard to say if she's ready to tackle these, however. (2) SEVENSHADES
OFGREY is a major in-and-outer but even his best effort would likely fall short against these (1) VELVET
STYLE is actually good now...but not as good as these.
RACE 10 - (2) REAL WILLEY has been good in general (for a fairly low % barn) and was particularly
sharp in last week's close 2nd - he moves to the Super Siblings tonight, and that makes him an automatic
play. (6) CHURCHVIEWFRANKL IR was in the midst of a sharp move last week when he made a break
on the final turn - willing to forgive that, and try him in the exotics tonight. (7) STELLAR YANKEE draws
poorly yet again but he was flying at the wire last week and is worth including underneath, even starting
from another brutal spot. (5) MIGHTY SANTANA N seems a bit cheaper on paper but he gets what could
be a big barn change, and that makes him worth a look for a small piece. (8) ULTIMAROCA has clearly
been off his best game and his barn has really struggled to win races the last few weeks - that being said, he
may try to blast anyway from Post 8 (with Bartlett driving tonight), and he may perk up at this level - hard
to really justify that 5/2 ML price, however. (1) DIAMONDBEACH landed in a soft spot last week, got the
right pilot to send him to the top and he became the barn's FOURTH winner that night - hard to see him
having the same success against these much better ones. however. (5) MR PERFECT N used his class to
dig in and hold 2nd last week but he really didn't look good throughout the mile - will need to be a lot better
to contend with these. (3) MACH N CHEESE is struggling at the moment
RACE 11 - (8) JUSTICE certainly gets no help with the draw but he does get class relief - if Pantaleano
can hustle him away to a decent start, he may be able to get it done tonight...at a fair price. (4) UNEVERG
ONNAGETHIS had a couple of dull starts after a sick scratch but looked better last week - he's had a
terrific year, and may respond tonight to a set of fresh hands - look for a live effort. (3) KILIMANJARO
NL is on the upswing, thriving along with virtually all of his barnmates - steps up in class riding a 2 race
winning streak, and we'll see if he can elevate his game a bit more and battle these too. (5) TACHYON
tried a long three wide move from the back last week and can be forgiven for flattening in the lane - his best
effort puts him in play for a small piece here. (7) BLACK TIE BASH was terrific in his first local start, a
dullish 4th in his next then a solid 3rd last week- may be up against it from out here, though. (1) CREATIV
E VENTURE fits cheaper and would look a lot better in the right class - maybe he can tow along for some
minor scraps? (6) SMASHIN RACQUETS stole one on the front end in her YR debut against a soft bunch
of mares - was not able to replicate that mile last week, and faces a tougher bunch tonight (from a bad
post). (2) KASHA V may be off form right now, with a dull try 2 back followed by a miscue last week.
RACE 12 - (5) PACE N PRIDE N had some issue on 11/20 in his first start back off the layoff- re-qualified
and was a solid 3rd last week - if he can build off that effort even a little bit, he can be a tough commodity
in the final race of the meet. (6) URBAN RENEWAL was no factor in his first local start of the year but he
drops, gets Bartlett tonight, and has done well here in the past - possibility. (3) GINGER TREE PETE was
completely disinterested in his first start off the barn change last week but also had Post 8 - it's POSSIBLE
that he'll be more motivated tonight, and isn't a bad longshot for those looking to end the year with a big
payoff. (1) MEMPHISTENNESSEE N draws the pole again and is a solid player in this class - belongs in
your exotics. (4) HEISMAN PLAYER was no factor in his return off the layoff - we'll see if he can improve
a bit the 2nd time around. (2) MOONLITE DRIVE N has done little in his 4 starts since arriving from
Australia - inclined to pass, but will at least take a glance at the tote board. (8) LEAVE AND ROLL went
his best mile in ages last week but now has to deal with Post 8 - tough spot. (7) PROVOCATIVEPRINCE
N has struggled in his recent local starts - Post 7 isn't going to help
SEE YOU IN 2024!