The Empire Report - Thursday, April 14, 2022 - Race Analysis
RACE 1 - (6) POPPY DRAYTON N lost by 11 lengths last week but really wasn't bad, as the top two beat
the others by MANY - she drops all the way to the basement, seemed to be ok adding the choke plate last
week, and this does feel like a good spot for her to come up with a much bigger effort. (2) E R HILARY
has been really struggling for a while, but her barn has been sending out lots of live ones, and this mare
would be mighty tough against these if she can find an effort even close to her best - not a bad value horse
to include in your plays. (1) SNIPER HANOVER ships in for top connections to a barn that has always
done well with these - she figures to be cutting this mile, and the road to the winner's circle does go through
her....but she'll also be way overbet, so don't fall in love at a very short price. (4) ALWAYS BE COOL
looked a bit cheap shipping in from PA last week but put in a solid first over effort in her first try for a very
high % barn - legitimate threat with just a bit of improvement. (3) BETABCOOL N returns from NJ with a
mixed bag of recent tries - will consider for a small piece, but she's winless here in 18 starts over the past 3
years. (5) QUEEN LOSTRIS N took no $$ and didn't fire in either of her 2 starts since the layoff - inclined
to pass, but will at least check the tote board. (7) CRYSTAL SPARKLES N was more competitive in her
last couple, but the outside draw does figure to be a roadblock for her tonight
RACE 2 - (4) TEXAS TERROR N may be 14 years old, but he's racing like a much younger individual
these days...and has been for months now - in his current run he's hasn't yet shown that he can beat the 25s,
but his last effort (first time for the Dynamic Duo) suggests that it's very possible - we'll stick with him on
top. (6) LETTUCERIPRITAA is "only" 12, but he's another in the midst of an outstanding form spree -
was a little concerned when he dropped to 25s after beating the 30s, but he was a strong 2nd to the VERY
sharp winner - remains a major threat. (3) URBAN RENEWAL was a steady 4th from an impossible spot
upon arrival two back, and raced very well last week, a hard used 2nd best (at 31-1) - decent value horse to
consider. (5) EDDARD HANOVER fits well here and is playable in exotics...but his 0 for 17 local slate
(last 3 yrs.) makes him tough to use on top (at a relatively short price). (2) DING DING DINGER has a few
decent starts here, but has disappointed far more often- we'll see if he can elevate his game for his new barn
(1) ILLINI DUKE looks a bit cheap upon arrival from Ohio - he does draw best, and will go for a new barn
- he'll need to pick up his game to be a factor here, though. (7) ROCK THE NITE found a good spot after
leaving from Post 8 last week but tired in the stretch - guessing we'll see a conservative steer from this spot.
(8) IN SPADES lands Post 8 and his trainer is listed to drive - will re-consider if there's a late driver change
RACE 3 - (5) QUEEN OF ALL was sent off at 2/5 last week (racing off a 3 month layoff) but was nipped
right at the wire - she'll be a short price again tonight, but definitely has a good chance to make amends
with that last start under her belt. (7) SPREE made a break in her first local try racing in the much tougher
FM Open Trot - was handled conservatively last week, but trotted a strong final 3/8ths for an encouraging
3rd place finish - could give the top choice a battle here IF Zeron is able to at least improve a bit at the start.
(4) SOUTHERN SWAN MAN qualified back very nicely in NJ but his 2 local starts since then have been
disappointing - reunites with Miller tonight, and that may help him find a better effort - could add some
value to the exotics. (2) BY A HOFF HANOVER was dull in his local debut but a much sharper 2nd last
week - another one to include underneath. (6) TITANS HOPE needs to be a little stronger at the end of her
miles, but her quick early speed usually has her in position to grab a small piece - could happen tonight too.
(1) YUCATAN PARTY MAN disappointed last week but may have disliked the off going - wouldn't be a
surprise to see him race better this week. (3) JESSIES OUTLAWED was no factor at all in his first 2 starts
of the year - we'll see if tonight's post relief results in a better effort.
RACE 4 - (3) GREENHILL HANOVER beat a NW10000 field here on 1/13 and also has a few recent
solid efforts in NJ - should fit nicely with this bunch in her YR return, and that 9-1 ML price does look
tempting - one of several with a legitimate chance in here. (6) MALNIFICENT hit the bottom level last
week and swelled right up, hitting the top and leaving nothing a chance with her 1:53.4 blowout - decent
chance to beat these too IF she shows up just as sharp tonight. (8) CORAL BELLA isn't nearly as sharp as
when she went on that insane run from 12.5s to the Open recently, but she is heading back in the right
direction after hitting a rough patch - does have the speed to blast from even out here, and not a bad value
horse to consider. (4) NORMANS MADELINE was definitely a little better last week, and drops a notch
for tonight - she's delivered form reversing victories here in the past, so give her at least a look tonight. (5)
DIAMONDTOOTHGERTIE has a few pretty good recent tries and shouldn't be 20-1 ML - can at least land
somewhere on the ticket if the trip goes her way. (2) SLICK ARTIST A steps up off a pair of wins, and her
local slate over the past 3 years is excellent (8 for 21!) - she'll face much tougher this week, however, and
there are just better value opportunities here...at least for the top slot. (1) CHECKERED PAST had to
re-qualify after stopping to a crawl on 3/31 - will wait for a better effort before hopping on her team again.
(7) WALTZWITHSIERRAA draws poorly off a break, and is still winless in the U.S. since arriving last
year
RACE 5 - (1) PROVOCATIVEPRINCEN finally hit the lead 3 back and that got him to the winner's circle
- shuffled back to end up 3rd in his next, then a no prayer spot in last - Zeron probably realizes this guy
needs the lead to do his best, and hopefully will have him there tonight. (6) FOX VALLEY INFERNO was
out every step of the way last week and was still trying hard late to pick up 4th - was sharp in the pair
before that, and looms a dangerous threat with a kind journey tonight. (2) MISTER SPOT A has been a
steady performer lately, and should get a nice trip here - definitely ok for a piece, but may need to be in a
bit easier for a chance to win one. (4) JOJOS PLACE is somewhat of an enigma, running hot and cold from
week to week while making players frustrated as they try to guess which version will be showing up - and
that's the same dilemma for tonight! (3) MONTY MONO sat the pocket in his local debut but tired a bit at
the end to wind up 3rd - one to include underneath. (5) CENTURY GRIZZLY benefited from a pretty good
trip to rally for 3rd last time - hard to say if he can be as successful with a less fortuitous journey. (8)
TOWNLINE FLIGHT fits well enough with these but lands Post 8 after missing 3 weeks - tough task. (7)
MINGO JOEL failed to impress (so far) since arriving at YR 2 starts back
RACE 6 - Tough race! We've been on the (6) GOLDEN QUEST N team for a while and at that 12-1 ML
price, we'll stay on board one more time - she just missed 3 back, was a winner in her next, then raced as
well as she could from an impossible spot in her last - she'll need trip luck to pull it out from this spot, but
she has a legitimate chance if she gets some. (3) DEMETER N was a very sharp winner 3 back, raced as
well as she could from Post 8 in her next, then came up 2nd best (to a very sharp rival) after cutting the
mile last week - another live player, at a decent price. (1) BEACH MOMENT is making a big class jump
here, but she's won 4 in a row and really picked up her game since adding Lasix 2 back - may be good
enough right now to hang with the good mares too. (2) VIOLETS RAINBOW has 3 wins and 4 seconds
from her 7 starts this year, and draws yet another inside post - has to be respected, even against this solid
crew. (5) EDGE OF ETERNITY just missed to the top choice 2 back, then was a solid 3rd last week,
flashing pace at both ends of the mile - add her to the list of potential players. (4) ANDRA DAY has been
facing mostly a bit easier this year, with some mixed results - she's currently sharp, but may find a few of
these a little tougher than she'd prefer - we shall see. (8) BITTY BITTY would normally be very dangerous
at this level but she draws Post 8 off a sick scratch, so we'll stick with others this week. (7) SPORTS FLIX
had been strong all year prior to last week's dull effort - Post 7 won't help her get back on track tonight
RACE 7 - (6) HAPPY TRIO was always a solid performer but to the surprise of very few, has elevated his
form significantly since being claimed by this powerhouse barn on 3/14 - remains at last week's winning
level, and has to be seen as the one to beat tonight, as well. (3) SOUTHWIND ONYX was a sharp "pocket
rocket" winner 2 back, then raced very well again last week despite being well back early on (after some
interference) - should be right in the hunt again tonight. (7) LL MYSTRO made a HUGE move last week as
he went from 6th at the half to the lead by 3/4s....but even more impressively, remained strong right through
the wire to JOG at 40-1 - will now have to overcome both Post 7 and a class jump, but he can't be counted
out off last week's huge performance (off a barn change). (1) MAJESTIC KIWI N is the "x factor" in here,
as he's racing off 3 weeks (sick scratch), but making his first start for a barn that's really sharp right now -
can't blame anybody for including him on their tickets. (4) SHOREVIEW was a (very overbet) winner here
on 2/28, but unable to replicate that effort since then - maybe a small share? (2) SWEET N FAST N moves
to a new barn tonight as he looks to perk up out of his current sluggish form - sticking with his sharper foes,
at least for now. (5) CASHNCAM steps up to face older rivals after coming up with a mixed bag of efforts
vs. age restricted claimers - will need a very hot pace to have any chance of being a late player. (8)
BROTHER JAMES can't be faulted for his current form but may have to wait for a (much) better draw
before he can be a threat against these
RACE 8 - (7) ANNE BONNEY N was pretty disappointing last week after securing the two hole trip, but
perhaps she just bottomed out chasing the very hot pace - she's usually better than most (all?) of these, and
may be worth sticking with (down in class) as the price will surely be decent. (1) ACEFOURTYFOUR
ALEX perked up nicely last week, a trend we've been seeing for many from this barn - gets the best post
for tonight, and may be able to rally by in the stretch if things go her way. (4) SHADY MADAM had been
doing good work lately, so last week's clunker (for a new barn) was discouraging - we'll see if she can
bounce back tonight at what figures to be a pretty juicy price. (2) TOPVILLE ANGELINA ships in from
NJ and gets both post relief, and a big driver switch - would be no surprise to see a much better effort from
her. (3) COLOR ENVY was bet much heavier than expected last week, was handled aggressively and came
up 2nd best - certainly a chance tonight, but no value using her on top at that 9/5 ML price. (6) BYE BYE
MICHELLE was able to hold 2nd as the winner left her in the dust last week - she's hard to ignore at this
bottom level. but the outside draw will also hurt - would consider for a smaller piece. (5) PLAY TO THE
CROWD has to be better than last week - but remains a pass
RACE 9 - (5) SWEET HEAVEN took a big class plunge last week and delivered the 1:52.4 victory as the
1/10 favorite - steps up one notch, but the outcome figures to be the same. (4) TALL POPPY N was just a
small piece getter vs. the 50s but may be able to do a bit better against these - use underneath. (6) HEY
HEY DBAY was "ok" in both local tries, and gets a nice driver upgrade for tonight - good bomb to
potentially add some value to the exotics. (7) SEZANA N is extremely camera shy but that doesn't mean
she doesn't grab her pieces - terrible draw, but she drops in class and may be able to find a way somewhere
onto the ticket. (8) WESTMONT Z TAM shipped in from PA from VERY live connections (to their VERY
live local barn) and was able to beat the bottom level - raced well for 3rd in this class the next week, then
was in a no chance spot vs. NW15000 in her last - terrible draw once again, but may be able to grab a small
piece, with some racing luck. (2) PRAY THE ROSARY was a dream trip winner 2 back, and a "no racing"
3rd last week - could be vulnerable tonight. (1) TELL ME A JOKE has been good with cheaper, but the 3
weeks off is a concern. (3) PONDER THE ODDS has been struggling overall for some time
RACE 10 - (3) NO MAS DRAMA somehow got to draw for an inside slot despite a pair of 2nds in this
Open FM trot, and a 2nd to MISSISSIPPI STORM the week before - she has the post edge on her main
foes, and we'll see if that's enough to get her to the winner's circle this time (hopefully Buter will handle her
a bit more aggressively this week). (6) KENZIESKY HANOVER shipped in off a pair of NJ scores and
easily took another one here, helped by both the :59 half, and her main rivals going offstride, and never
pulling - certainly a chance to take another....but it'll be a lot harder this time. (4) BROADWAY ATHENA
was away for a long time, but appears to be getting sharper each week now - she can more than hold her
own with these when at her best...and she's worth a look here IF the price is juicy enough. (5) HEY LIVVY
can be excused for the miscue over last week's gooey oval, but the fact remains that she's eligible win,
break, and everything in between on any given week - since she's always well backed, maybe we'll look to
go against her tonight. (1) YOU WILL BE QUEEN has a solid local resume (9-2-4-2) and returns from The
Swamp, where she's been finishing close behind #6 - some missed time is a bit of a concern, though. (2)
KANDY SWEET hasn't embarrassed herself against these at all, but does seem a notch below
RACE 11 - (2) MAJOR BATTLE was a winner the last time she dropped down to this level and often holds
her own vs. better - good chance she can land on a live trip from this spot, and that would make her a big
threat to take the finale. (8) STAR CAPTAIN is REALLY good right now, and even that line 2 back was a
lot sharper than it looks on paper - she would have been the top choice with a better draw, but still worth
having on your tickets, even from out here. (3) WESTBEACH went off form for a while but is back racing
well every week - another quite capable of beating these IF things go her way. (4) BIRCH ISLAND
BETTY has shipped in and done good work here in the past - seems a notch below these right now but she
does get Zeron at the controls, and she's not a bad one for longshot fans to consider. (7) FIGHTING EVIL
has been a very consistent performer for some time but she wasn't able to overcome the outside draw last
week, and may end up in that same boat tonight (1) SHEIKH YABOOTY beat lesser 2 back then weakened
to 3rd trying to cut the mile against these last week - looking at a smaller share only. (6) JOSSIE JAMES A
is more than capable "on her best"...but she's been having trouble finding that level in most of her starts this
year. (5) IRON MISTRESS beat lesser at Chester last week, but may struggle against these tonight