Monday Empire Report

soaofny • July 31, 2023

The Empire Report - Monday, July 31, 2023 - Race Analysis

RACE 1 - (1) SHAKESPEARE races well every week in this class but he now goes back to the barn for

whom he went the mile of his life 2 back - Kakaley takes him over #4, and hopefully will drive him the

way Dube did in that VERY sharp 7/17 victory. (4) STRIKING IMPACT had a pair of blowout wins 3 and

4 starts back but was parked the mile 2 back, then trapped with no stretch room last week - legitimate

player here with a better trip. (5) CERTIFIABLE has been having an excellent year here (18-4-6-4), and

now gets some class relief dropping in for a tag - very logical threat. (3) KING JAMES EXPRESS has hit

board for what feels like a zillion straight weeks, and goes back to a barn for whom he was a solid 2nd two

back - hard to not use him in exotics. (7) STELLAR YANKEE has been very good for weeks but had

trouble getting play last start and may face that same dilemma tonight. (2) LITTLE WILLY is hard to gauge

class wise off his out of town lines - he feels like he MAY be a little cheaper...but that 20-1 ML price makes

him worth considering for a small share. (6) GREG THE LEG has failed to get even a small check in his

last 4 starts - the poor draw isn't going to help.


RACE 2 - (3) DEETZY went a big first over try last week, battling tenaciously to the end and barely

missing to a streaking winner - he gets Bartlett back tonight, and the pair have been 2nd the last 3X they

teamed up together...maybe tonight they get over the hump? (1) ARRHYTHMIC SURGE lost all realistic

chance when driven poorly 2 back but got a good drive last week and was right there 3rd on the wire - can

be a very live player tonight. (2) BRACKLEY BEACH has been right there virtually every start for weeks,

but he's just 1 for 22 on the year (that win came 2 back, on a night when the barn sent out 4 scary sharp

winners) - have to respect his chances, but you also need to get a fair price if using him on top. (6) KEYST

ONE PHOENIX is 5-0-0-0 since returning off the layoff but hasn't been "bad" - tough spot tonight, but a

small piece isn't out of the question (5) DELIGHTFUL TERROR used an easy trip to pick up 3rd last week

but he draws outside 3 string players here and may have a tougher time landing a good share. (4) KEYSTO

NE DASH is 1 for 19 this year and been limited to minor pieces in most of his recent starts.


RACE 3 - (2) HEMSWORTH N was very well meant 2 back when he was a close 2nd behind the eternally

sharp COVERED BRIDGE - he wasn't able to overcome a terrible trip last week, but he drops out of the

Open, draws inside, and should be ready to bring a big one tonight. (1) SEMI TOUGH wired this class 3

back, finished 3rd (behind the top choice) in his next and raced ok from an impossible spot in the Gerrity

last week - he's always tough from a spot like this, and he does get along well with Joe B. - the main danger

(6) SPLASH BROTHER made a pretty easy lead last week so it was disappointing that he wasn't able to

pick up a win - he may have trouble getting in play from this spot, but he's a viable play for longshot fans.

(3) SHAKE IT probably would like to be facing a bit easier but the good draw can really help his cause,

and he's 9-1-4-3 at YR this year - chance for a small slice. (5) NANDOLO N finally didn't burn $$ last

week, getting the job done as the 1/5 favorite - it wasn't "pretty", however, and he used all of a perfect trip

to beat softer - he's too classy to ever just be counted out, but he'll need to be a lot better to beat these. (4)

FAMILY RECIPE takes a big step up after using dream trips to beat lesser in his last 2 - feels like a tough

assignment tonight. (7) CAPTIVATE HANOVER can throw some big miles under the right conditions...

but this doesn't feel like a good spot for him.


RACE 4 - (2) SAILBOAT HANOVER never got rolling last week in his first somewhat "disappointing" try

in a long time - he moves to a new barn tonight, and he basically put this (now) top trainer on the map last

year with the incredible work they did together - could be a very happy reunion. (6) JUSTASEC N is

5-3-2-0 in his local starts, with one of the losses coming from Post 8, and the other being behind GROOVY

JOE (currently racing in the Open) - he won at an amazing 22-1 last week and while he'll be shorter than

that tonight, he'll still be long enough to be worth using. (4) FLOW WITH JOE stepped over a stray object

in the stretch 3 back, went a big mile for 2nd in his next and was a sharp winner last week - remains a

threat, even up in class. (1) NEVER SAY NEVER N was handled conservatively last week (off a bad date)

but still paced home well for 3rd - another possibility in this competitive affair. (3) NOME HANOVER is a

bit camera shy but certainly racing well every week - can be part of the exotics. (5)

POINTOMYGRANSON was one of the barn's fire-breathing winners on 7/17 that just didn't race as well in

their next start - goes for a new barn now, and may have to deal with a few other speed types. (7)

WHITECOOKIE wins his share of local starts but figures to struggle after drawing poorly for his YR

return. (8) B LIKE CRUISER isn't bad right now, but this is a brutal spot.


RACE 5 - (2) NONE BETTOR A is technically moving up in class but this field is no tougher than the one

he beat (at $2.60) last week - the classy millionaire figures to pay another very short price tonight. (1) UN

DRTHSOUTHRNSUN N sat the pocket to the top one last week and held on to 2nd, though weakening a

bit in the lane - chance for some deja vu. (3) C BET HANOVER has gone good miles in this class, and may

get an easy trip here - solid chance to land somewhere on the ticket from this spot. (8) WINDSUN RICKY

was caught behind a tiring leader last week and it's hard to say what HE may have left in the tank - he did

beat this class 3 back, and would have a chance to be a player tonight IF Holland gambles on leaving with

him. (6) THRASHER went a sharp try for 2nd to a nice one 2 back, then had no room to pace from the

back last week - he may never get involved tonight, but he's worth considering for 3rd/4th at a big price. (5)

THE REGULATOR is more than capable of grabbing a piece with these when on his best, but his last pair

were a bit discouraging - tough call for tonight. (4) SARANAC BLUE CHIP has been away for 27 days -

prefer to just observe, for now. (7) GOTHIC ROCK charged home a winner last week but he draws poorly

while well up in class - not sure he can get into contention tonight.


RACE 6 - Tough race: (3) ONTO EL DORADO N has raced well in the majority of his recent starts and

was just 2nd at this level last week - he's usually a good price, and may offer some value in a race that's a

bit hard to predict. (5) JK STANDINGOVATION had no prayer last week after he came off the gate and got

caught chasing a sizzling 1:50.3 mile - his best work has come on/near the lead, and Bongiorno may be able

to send him there tonight (1) STATEMENT MADE A is 4 for 4 since the $20K claim on 6/23, beating the

25s twice and the 30s twice as well - tries the 40s now, and has a very real chance to beat them too. (6)

LOUIE THE LOOPER was 2nd in his local debut but been hurt by bad posts/trips in his last 4 starts - it

feels like he does fit with these, and he merits a look if the price is right. (4) SHERIFF N was able to beat

easier 2 back, his first YR win in a while - he feels a little iffy at this $40K level, but he'd hardly be a shock

(7) BLUEBIRD RECON hit board 3 straight weeks at big prices - he finally took $$ last week, tried it on

the front end and tired in the lane - very tough spot tonight. (8) HEART ON MY SLEEVE has been on a

good roll for some time for multiple barns - not sure how much damage he can do from a spot like this.


RACE 7 - (5) PINEBUSH LIFESAVER had gone ages without winning a race here but he's now out

together a very nice 19-5-4-3 local record this year - he's been ultra-consistent and goes for a new barn

tonight - maybe he can trip out and win at a decent price? (3) HES SPECIAL shipped in sharp from Monti

and thrived since arriving, racing well in all 4 starts including last week's (career best) 1:52.3 win in this

class- may be able to take another, if things go his way (2) IMMA BE's remarkable turnaround immediately

upon joining this high-achieving barn has been well documented - he was one of the barn's four 7/17

winners that was unable to race quite as well last week, and we'll see if he can bounce right back with a big

one tonight - be careful about taking too short a price on top. (1) DREAMING OF LOU made a break into

the first turn last week from the pole - even if he has no issues tonight, the jury is still out as to how well he

fits with these. (6) KOOTENAY SANTANNA can hold his own with these but will definitely be at a real

disadvantage starting from Post 6. (7) COALITION HANOVER hasn't been better than 3rd since 6/5 (7

starts), but he does grab plenty of smaller pieces - brutal post tonight. (4) TEXAS MIKI just seems badly

overmatched upon arrival from PA.


RACE 8 - (3) AMERICAN COURAGE has an outstanding Yonkers history and has banked $833K for his

career - that being said, he's having trouble getting his 5YO campaign in gear, currently at 6-1-2-1 with a

couple of breaks in his schedule - that last Pocono qualifier does suggest that he may be ready to start

making up for lost time now. (2) ROCKNROLL RUNA A has raced well in all 4 local starts, even with

some tough trips/spots - draws well for tonight, will be a nice price, and MAY be able to pull off an upset if

things go his way. (4) HELLABALOU struggled for a bit after upsetting in the Borgata Final but his form

has been solid lately - in his last (the Gerrity, at Stga.) he was put to wild urging at the start to get way in

the pocket to favored TATTOO ARTIST, and was a close 3rd at the wire...major threat here. (1) HICKFRO

MFRENCHLICK has been sharp so his last (upset) win wasn't all that shocking....but the EASE with which

he prevailed was certainly surprising - can't be discounted too quickly in his current form. (5) ANOTHRM

ASTRPIECE N beat this class 2 back and simply had no prayer last week - sharp enough to have a chance,

but may not get the best of trips tonight. (7) AMERICAN DEALER N finished well from hopeless spots in

his last pair but lands another terrible spot tonight. (8) FUNATTHEBEACH N just doesn't seem sharp

enough right now to be a serious player from Post 8. (6) SAVE ME A DANCE is likely overmatched.


RACE 9 - (4) MACHEASY A gets some class relief after holding his own with better on several recent

occasions - a live trip could make him a dangerous player tonight. (5) IMSTAYNALIVE is winless on the

year but has several sharp recent efforts - if he ends up in a live flow, he has a chance to be there at the end.

(7) SOHO LENNON A just toured the oval from bad posts 2 and 3 back but he definitely had some sneaky

pace finishing last week - this is a field well within his comfort zone IF Kakaley takes a shot to improve off

the car. (1) KJ HUNTER tried a first over move into LUCKBEWITHALEX's 1:51 mile last week and gets

a pass for tiring - he probably fits with these from this good spot, and Stratton did take him (over #7) - not

impossible. (6) MOTIVE HANOVER beat a soft field at PcD 2 back and was able to win here in NW7500

last week, helped by the rail, lead, and a :57.2 half - maybe he can beat these too, but it'll be a lot tougher

from this spot. (3) JAY BRACKEN A hails from top connections and has been racing "ok" vs. easier - he 's

also just 1 for 15 this year, and tough to consider on top against these at a short price. (2) WAR DAN DELI

GHT N will go on "watch mode" as he joins a new barn off last week's claim.


RACE 10 - (2) MOONLIGHT SHADOW has been good for a while but that last win was particularly

impressive, putting in a very long first over move before wearing down ALLUNEEDISFAITH N and

kicking home in :27.1 to seal it - faces a few sharp foes here, but may be able to come out on top once

more. (3) LOUS SWEETREVENGE brought his "A Game" last week, leaving for a spot then coming first

over to a handy victory - classy 6YO is eligible to repeat with a similarly sharp effort. (6) ROCK DIAMON

DS N sat well back in 8th all the way last week....then flew home in the lane to be right there 4th - he

recently won 8 in a row for the Dynamic Duo, and a fast start would stamp his a serious contender tonight.

(5) ALLUNEEDISFAITH N just missed to the top choice last week but certainly had the easier trip - he

hasn't won since moving up to this level, but he's remained a solid contender - playable if the price is right.

(1) FEELIN WESTERN saved ground all the way last week and was able to shoot up the rail for the upset -

he does love to win races, and would hardly be a shock in here. (4) CHANTEE is reliant on a hot pace - if

things fall apart up front, look for him to be moving well at the end.


RACE 11 - (3) FEARFUL INTENT had some very good starts here in the spring - he returns from PcD off

a lifetime best 1:49.2 jogburger, and he's Bartlett's choice over SHINE A LIGHT...gets the nod in the finale,

though he likely won't be offering much of a price. (4) SAMHARA N lagged most of the way last week but

finished with an absolute rush once Marohn finally let him pace in the lane - his overall recent form is

strong, and could have a big say here. (1) CAVIART SARGENT was 22-1 and 12-1 the last 2 weeks, did all

the heavy lifting (first over) both times and came up a close 2nd best to the perfect trip favorite in a pair of

bad beats - steps up in class, but could still make some noise. (8) SHINE A LIGHT has raced well here

since arriving in 2022 and beat this class just 4 starts down - the draw is the concern, though, and Bartlett

does abandon his primary client to drive the top choice. (2) MULLINAX has mostly good local tries

recently but probably fits better in a little bit easier - small slice? (7) HECANDANCENCR UISE has a big

move in him but still has only one recent victory - will need a bit to go his way to contend for the top prize

from out here. Both (5) VIVA LAS VEGAS N and (6) SAUVIGNON BLUECHIP have some good recent

rallies...but both would need things to fall apart up front to have any kind of impact here.

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