Monday Empire Report

apatchworkdesign • February 27, 2023

The Empire Report - Monday, February 27, 2023 - Race Analysis

RACE 1 - Good opener to start the Monday card! (3) LONG WEEKEND has been sharp for a long time,

and comes into tonight with 4 straight 2nd place finishes - should be able to work out a good trip from this

spot, and perhaps get over the hump for his new connections. (4) BALLERAT BOOMERANG was racing

well in NJ and had no problem delivering a sharp front end score (at 9-1!) in his Hilltop return - goes for

two in a row for our leading trainer....who is actually winning at the same incredible rate (30%!) as our

previous top conditioner. (1) THRASHER returned sharp from the layoff, rallying nicely for 2nd behind a

very sharp winner - bumps up from 40s to 50s, but the rail should help him....could be a threat for a barn

that has finally come back to life recently. (2) BARBADOS came into his last having won 5 of 6 but just

wasn't on his best game for new connections - can be a major threat if he can bounce back to top form for

tonight. (5) MONGOLIAN HERO N is pretty good right now but moves up to 50s despite his only local

win being vs. the 30s- doesn't help drawing outside 4 very good foes, but a hot pace would help his chances

to show up late. (6) FLOW WITH JOE was doing good work vs. the 40s and was an ok 4th trying the 50s

last week - figures to be hurt by tonight's draw, however. (7) THE DOWNTOWN BUS will be coming

from well back, and doesn't seem sharp enough right now to make any real noise here.


RACE 2 - (3) WINDSUN RICKY is a streaky sort and he's feeling pretty good right now - he's won his last

pair, including a dead game victory last start over DRAGON SAID (who came back to win this week) -

steps up, but this class is still well within his wheelhouse. (6) SPLASH BROTHER trailed all the way last

week but that start should still serve him well after missing 3+ months - he can be pretty inconsistent but

when he's "good", he can beat a lot better than these - good week to use him on your tickets. (7) ROCK CA

NDY hasn't won in some time and his listed trainer is also winless since returning to Yonkers in late 2022 -

Post 7 obviously doesn't help his chances, but he still may be good enough to grab a piece (with some trip

luck). (2) JKS CHAMP had Post 8 in NW15000 last week but gets both post and class relief for tonight - a

good trip puts him in play for a piece of the exotics. (1) GINGRAS BEACH does better with cheaper, but

the rail draw at least gives him a chance to take home a share. (4) BRACKLEY BEACH was no good at all

in his last then was scratched sick last week - seems a little iffy right now. (5) SOHO CHELSEAA may be

able to pick up a minor share, but probably needs easier to contend for a top slot.


RACE 3 - (3) PYRO served notice 2 back that he may be ready for a big one and that's certainly what we

saw in last week's 1:51 blowout - it was his barn's first winner of the year, and it seemed to signal a revival

for several other barnmates as well - will be tough to knock off with anything resembling that mile. (4) MO

TIVE HANOVER was all out trying to clear into a wild :53.4 opening half last week and obviously can be

forgiven for ultimately tiring - might be a good time to take him OFF the gate this week, but he's shown

that he can race well from off the pace too...good one to include in exotics. (5) PRETTY HANDSOME had

no prayer from Post 7 last week but did pace a "hidden" :54.2 final half - drops down to the level he beat 3

starts back, and figures to have a big say tonight as well. (2) FOREVER FAV tends to take a long time to

get rolling these days but he does have the capability of rallying late for a piece of this - could add some

value to the exotics. (6) SOUTHWIND SANDOR raced very well upon arrival from NJ, a dead game first

over 2nd to the prohibitive favorite - tough draw, but a live trip could land him a piece here too. (1) BENH

OPE RULZ N draws best but really seems a bit below the top ones - minor share only. (7) GALANTE A is

good right now, but faces an uphill climb trying to get into play from out here - decent bomb for 3rd/4th?

(8) SPEED MAN N is a legitimate Open threat on his best game but draws all the way outside after being

away for over 3 months, and this may be a good week to just keep an eye on him.


RACE 4 - (2) MARLBANK ROAD is pretty good right now, draws well and was Holland's choice (over

#6) - this feels like a wide open race and at that 12-1 ML price, he's definitely one worth considering. (5)

TWIN B DELUXE had a nice 3YO campaign and has continued to do good things at 4, winning here from

Post 8 two back, then coming up a strong 2nd best to the prohibitive choice in his last - loses Bartlett (to

#8), but Kakaley is more than capable of getting him home too - legit threat. (1) UNSUNG HERO did good

things at 3 and seems ready for a good 4YO season as well- he doesn't have much experience tackling older

foes, but we'll see if he can hold his own tonight. (4) GENERAL MONTANA N has a mixed bag of efforts

so far in the U.S. - feels like he COULD be a player with these, and that 12-1 ML price is appealing. (6)

QUALITY BUD is capable with these on his best but he draws poorly and Holland does opt for the top

choice - still worth a look with Yannick, if the price is decent. (8) THEFLYINGROCK won his last pair

but facing cheaper, from the pole - won't say he CAN'T win up in class from Post 8, but that 4-1 ML price

does make him far less attractive.(3) BLUEBIRD RECON looked like he was coming back around early

this year but has leveled off as he's moved back up in class - mixed feelings. (7) HEEZ OURPERSEUS N

had some success Down Under but really figures to need a start (or two) after 6 months off.


RACE 5 - (7) NICHOLAS BEACH didn't even pretend to be interested here on 1/23 (Post 8 off a long

layoff) but he did finish crisply, and followed that up with an excellent try in NJ (charging home for 3rd in

:25.3, behind #8) - was a total jogburger in his last (last quarter in :25.4), and there's no reason Joe B.

shouldn't be aggressive at the start tonight - could be a winning spot. (5) THE IDEAL DANCER A has held

form beautifully as he's climbed the class ladder, and is acting like a legitimate Open player - the right trip

could put him right there at the wire. (6) PRICELESS BEACH was sharp in his first 2 starts here this year

but has been idle since 2/6 - he's still capable of beating these, but insist on a good price if using on top. (8)

LOCHINVAR ART A is now 2 for 2 since the Australian millionaire arrived in the U.S. - will be facing a

MUCH tougher test tonight, however, and will really need to find a big effort (with some luck sprinkled in )

to win from this spot. (1) BEE TWO BEE can be an inconsistent performer, but has won here at this level -

should be tight off that Meadows mile, and he does draw the pole....not impossible. (4) COVERED BRID

GE steps up sharp and has held his own at this level in the past....but still seems a bit below a few of the

main players. (2) LOUS SWEETREVENGE qualified back (and now races) for a new listed trainer,

possibly because his former trainer has a glut of horses at these top levels - he loves to win races, but faces

a tough assignment in his first off the layoff. (3) JAHAN HANOVER didn't embarrass himself in his first

try at this level but still needs to prove he can really be a player with these.


RACE 6 - (6) MACINTOSH N put together a $116K season at age 13 and has continued to thrive now at

14, coming into tonight off a near-miss 2nd and 3rd - he'll be very dangerous if he can make an easy lead

tonight, but can be a big threat even if he doesn't. (5) HURRIKANEKINGJAMES raced well in both starts

since the recent claim, picking up a 2nd and 3rd despite first over trips - can be a serious threat if the trip

goes his way here. (3) AUDI HARE N looked like a winner into the final turn last week but just fell apart

in the final 1/8th of a mile to end up 4th - we'll see if Bartlett can get a little more out of him, and contend

for the top slot. (7) LOVE THE BLUES N was the worst kept secret on the planet when he jogged here on

1/18 as the favorite (despite being off 6 weeks and moving up in class) - his next was excellent as well, but

he did falter in the start after that - rebounded with a nice one at PcD last start, and would have looked a lot

better here with an inside draw. (2) GINGER TREE PETE looked like he wasn't going to get a check on the

final turn 2 back and somehow was a nose in front when they hit the wire - prefer others, but he wouldn't be

a shock. (4) PINEBUSH LIFESAVER has been in good form for a long time but does spot an 0 for 37 local

slate - willing to use underneath, but opting for others on top. (1) JACKAMINO drops to 30s and draws the

pole but just looked well short off the layoff last week.


RACE 7 - (2) CHANGE STRIDE N had really hit the skids before the barn change (3 back) but has been

back on his better game since then - a hard used middle half left him a little short at the end last week, but

he has license to make amends with a better trip tonight. (4) DEETZY went a big mile from Post 7 last time

to grab 3rd at 60-1 -- Holland actually takes him over a sharp #3, and he seems like a good value horse to

consider at that 9-1 ML price. (3) CAN B PERFECT just missed 2 back then was able to get it done from

Post 8 last week, though he really did end up with a good trip - he's sharp enough to handle tonight's class

jump, but it is a little surprising that Holland opts for #4. (6) STRETCH THE LINE was brushing into the

hot pace last week when he broke on turn three - he had major excuses in the 2 tries before that, and he's

overdue for things to go his way - consider if the price gets juicy. (5) NVESTMENT BLUE CHIP has been

in and out lately but his barn seems to be warming up, and he may land a good trip here- not impossible. (1)

THE REAL ONE seems to be struggling along with many of his barnmates, but is eligible to wake up at

any time at this level - just not worth a short price at the moment. (7) KEFORD ROAD A draws poorly off

a weak effort - wait for a better spot. (8) MEMPHISTENNESSEE N is struggling and get stuck with Post 8.


RACE 8 - (3) LEONIDAS A returned from a 3 month layoff with a good effort last week, finding his best

stride late to be right there 3rd - he should be ready for a top try off that mile, and Siegelman has several

options from this spot - the classy import figures to be much shorter than that 6-1 ML listing. (4) SEMI TO

UGH got lost at the back in the Dover slop last week but should appreciate the return to Yonkers....where

he has 3 wins and a neck loss 3rd from his 4 starts - legitimate threat. (5) BACKSTREET SHADOW seems

to have lost a bit on his fastball but debuts tonight for a barn known for restoring a lot of MPH in a hurry -

can't blame anybody looking to give him a shot. (1) OAKWOODINITOWINIT IR could only manage even

pace in the lane for 4th last week after grabbing up to sit a pocket trip behind #7 - there's a shot he could

beat these tonight, but seems better used underneath. (6) IDEALSOMEMAGIC A earns his way up to the

Open off 5 consecutive wrapped-up victories - he's still a bit off an unknown (classwise), however, because

he's literally waltzed to the lead EVERY week, and never been tested at all - we'll learn a lot more tonight!

(2) NANDOLO N had been on a very nice form spree but was in a no chance spot on 2/6, then was a sick

scratch on 2/20 - would seem to be at a disadvantage against these off 3 weeks. (7) FUNATTHEBEACH N

extended his winning streak to 4 in last week's Open, but was helped when the lead was waiting for him to

the quarter and he was over the half in :57 - it'll be a lot harder tonight (though not impossible).


RACE 9 - (6) ROCKIN WITHELVIS A raced super for 2nd in his U.S. debut so it was no surprise when he

jogged in his next at 2/5 - simply had NO prayer last week when sitting last behind the :58.2 opening half,

but he did pace his final half in a sizzling :53.4 to grab 4th - as long as Gingras can work out a manageable

trip, he can beat these. (7) UNDRTHSOUTHRNSUN N shipped in sharp from NJ and was super upon

arrival, crushing the field in a sizzling 1:51.2 mile - has to be considered a threat tonight even with Post 7

and up 2 classes! (1) DEAN B HANOVER has been very solid in his last 4 starts and draws the pole once

more (which will help with the class jump) - solid threat if the top pair falter. (2) MOONLIGHT SHADOW

was in career form before coming back to earth a bit last week - hard to predict which direction he'll go

tonight. (4) FEELIN WESTERN was used hard in his last and finally gave way to the pressure - missed 3

weeks after that, and seems a bit of a question mark for tonight. (5) SMOKIN BY N regained his form after

dropping way down in class but did hit a snag last week, tiring after chasing the hot pace - another that's a

bit iffy for tonight. (8) AMERICANLIGHTNINGN has held solid form for several weeks, even if not

always looking great at the end - tough task from Post 8, though. (3) BRANQUINHO figures to need a start

or two after being away since August.


RACE 10 - (1) TOWNLINE ALL GOOD has gone some big miles lately but his last victory (off the claim)

was stellar, making THREE moves and still going away at the wire - clearly the one to knock off from the

pole. (5) OSTRO HANOVER took $ last week and did a nice job rallying for 2nd from way back, dropping

down to 40s - good chance he can leave the gate and grab a two hole trip tonight....which should leave him

with a big piece again. (7) CAPTIVATE HANOVER has been very good for weeks - has the speed to leave

for a spot here, and that would give him a solid chance to land somewhere in the exotics. (2) KEY ADVIS

OR has outraced his odds several times lately, especially last week (when 2nd from Post 7 at 30-1) - a close

up trip puts him in play for another decent chunk. (8) TIN ROOF RAIDER A is very good right now but

gets stuck with Post 8 after being brutally parked last week - at 20-1 ML, worth throwing underneath on a

few tickets. (3) KILOWATT KID N drops down from 50s, but may need to drop more to be a serious

player. (4) ROCKIN JUKEBOX bottomed in the pocket last week and is another that may need to be in

cheaper. (6) FOX VALLEY REN probably needs a better draw to contend for a decent piece at this level.


RACE 11 - (2) WALKINSHAW N was wildly overbet 3 back and unable to deliver (tough trip) but did

score as the 2/5 choice in his next - just a no chance spot last week but the move inside makes him a big

threat again tonight. (1) DIAMONDBEACH has used his speed to secure pocket trips the last 3 weeks,

resulting in two 2nds and a 3rd- chance to take 'em all the way tonight on the front end. (3) OUR CORELLI

N was a close 2nd last week despite missing 3 weeks - he fits with these (despite the class jump) and a live

trip could put him right there at the end. (6) B LIKE CRUISER was a little disappointing when 3rd three

back, raced "ok" in that win the following week but was REALLY good in last week's tough trip, 3rd place

finish - bad post tonight, but still worth a look at the right price. (4) REIGNING DEO can be in-and-out,

but an easy trip could land him a small piece. (4) GAMBLINGTERROR prefers cheaper, but has a shot at a

minor share (at a big price) with one of his ground saving trips. (7) STRAIGHT UP COOL races very well

a couple of levels down, but figures to struggle a bit in this spot. (8) QUATRAIN BLUE CHIP was empty

off a bad date last week, and now gets stuck behind the 8 ball.

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