The Empire Report – Monday, September 9, 2024 – Race Analysis
RACE 1 – (4) BLUE HUNT has 10 wins and $352K on his card but has always acted like a horse not quite reaching
his potential – he does return of a pretty successful stint (in Canada) vs. much better, and lands at a level he should
be able to handle (for a pilot that has figured out how to motivate him in the past). (2) LYRICAL GENIUS A had a
big wake up call with the move inside 2 back and showed it was no fluke with a nice follow up in NJ – can use his
speed to be an up front player here from start to finish. (5) GREAT SOMEWHERE hasn’t come close to replicating
the BIG year he had in 2023 but his recent efforts (since dropping to this level) have been solid, and he can be a
player here...with any decent trip. (6) REIGNING DEO will probably attract some attention off the class drop but
he just hasn’t been sharp lately – smaller piece only. (3) HURRIKANEKINGJAMES hasn’t won in a long time, and
likely looking at only a lesser piece here as well. (1) DONT JUDGE A BOOK landed on a perfect trip last week and
was able to pull off a big upset over cheaper – the rail helps, but he still seems a bit below these. (7) ALEX TYE
will have a tough time getting in play from out here.
RACE 2 – Tough race: (4) MIDNIGHT LIGHTNING is 0 for 11 locally over the past 2 seasons (1 for 23 over the
past 3) but he IS racing well now, and figures to be a pretty fair price – one of several with a chance in here, and
could offer some decent value. (7) BAD BOY TOO is clearly the sharpest with 5 wins and 2 seconds from his last 7
starts – he seems able to thrive in any barn, but he does draw all the way outside and is listed at 8/5 ML – hard to
take TOO short a price from out here. (2) SMOKIN BY N already has 9 wins this year, but did tire badly in his last
pair (after being used hard) – will he be able to bounce back here with an easier trip, or has the long, hard season
started to wear him down a bit? (1) LOUS THE ATTITUDE draws best for top connections and has been racing
“ok” – he also comes into tonight with a 13-0-1-2 record this year, and that 2-1 ML listing does make him somewhat
unattractive. (6) PRETTY HANDSOME was hitting on all cylinders before being scratched lame on 8/12...and his
form hasn’t been the same in the 2 starts since returning – the draw is another issue, as well. (3) SWEET TROY has
shown he CAN win at this level, but just seems well off his game right now. (5) TWIG has the ability to go with
these, but comes into this off a sick scratch and is definitely a question mark.
RACE 3 – (3) POINTOMYGRANSON didn’t just win last week, he LOOKED like a different horse (strong all the
way, NOT locked on a line, etc.) – if he brings that same effort tonight, he’ll be tough to knock off...but definitely
won’t be much of a price! (1) TWIN B RISENSHINE’s overall recent form is “good”, though he did hang badly in
the latter stages last week – wouldn’t write him off just off that one disappointing try, but wouldn’t take too short a
price tonight either. (5) DEETZY has been unreliable at best lately but IF he brings one of his better efforts, he
would have a chance at the mild upset. (2) SURFSIDE BEACH hasn’t been terrible by any means, but he does feel
like he’s tailing a bit (after a season of mostly strong efforts) – still ok for a piece. (6) CYRUS N can threaten at this
level but the outside draw may leave him looking at a smaller share tonight. (4) PAT STANLEY N can never be
counted out completely but he definitely throws more weaker efforts than good ones these days
RACE 4 – (3) ADAM TWELVE was in a no chance spot last week but he went a BIG mile the week before
(hounded all the way and still a close 5 th in a 1:51 mile) and recently was 2 nd twice to RACING RAMPAGE (who
has pretty much beaten EVERY horse he’s faced since arriving here) – worth a look tonight at what figures to be a
decent price. (1) JOEMIKIYOURSOFINE was well backed and well meant 2 back but hurt by a lack of room into
the stretch – he raced well again last week, and can be forgiven for not being able to get to the “good” version of
VERDUN – should have a big say from the pole tonight. (5) ROCKIN JUKEBOX suddenly turned things around
mid-July and has been on a roll since, including an excellent rallying 2 nd to a stickout winner last week – could add
some value to the exotics. (2) GINGRAS BEACH hasn’t been known for his consistency in the past but he certainly
has held form beautifully, even at these higher levels – an easy trip could see him pacing well late for a piece. (4)
LAYTN HANOVEER was a well backed easy winner last week but lands in a tougher spot here, and also loses
Kakaley – would hardly be a surprise, but you’d want a decent price if looking for him to repeat. (7) THE REAL
ONE is in the best form of his 14YO campaign right now but does figure to be limited by the draw. (6) KOMODO
BEACH gets Kakaley to stay loyal, but does seem to be in a very tough spot
RACE 5 – (7) FUNATTHEBEACH N hasn’t won in some time and hasn’t even hit board since late June...but the
classy 10YO drops to a level here where he’s hard to dismiss, even with the bad draw – we’ll give him top billing,
but probably wouldn’t bet the rent money on him (3) OPTICAL ILLUSION N is much sharper than he looks, moves
inside, and a big effort is expected – would absolutely use him on top if the price is good. (4) ODDS ON CAPITALI
SM was good here in a handful of 2022 starts, but not so much in ’23 – his current Ohio firm is a little tough to
gauge, and that gives us mixed feelings about his chances for tonight. (1) GALANTE A is racing ok, has done good
things here in the past and his barn is sending out live ones these days – could easily land somewhere on the ticket.
(6) KARLOO BRADLEY N was good in defeat 2 back and even better in defeat in his last – the issues here are the
DOUBLE class jump and bad draw! (8) SPLASH BROTHER qualified back nicely after a freshening but tonight’s
draw may leave him waiting for a class drop, and better post. (5) HECANDANCENCRUISE was no factor at all in
his 2 starts since the layoff – check the board? (2) VENIER HANOVER came up well short in both tries after a
layoff of his own
RACE 6 – (2) HUNTINTHELASTDOLAR was a good horse from day one, earning about $170K at 2, $320K at 3
and already with $205K on his card at 4... while facing top horses week after week – he makes his first local start
since winning the NYSS Final (about a year ago, for a different barn), and we’ll look for him to come out on top. (5)
PLEASELETMKNOW is a little light in the win column this year but he’s been a threat in this class week after
week – a quick start would boost his chances tremendously. (4) VERDUN brought his “A Game” last week and was
able to score a sharp wire to wire victory – he faces a more uncertain trip here, so make sure to get a decent price if
looking for him to repeat. (3) NIGHT HAWK grabbed a nice pocket victory in his last but he usually gets slowed
down a bit when up at these higher levels. (6) THUNDER HUNTER JOE lost his first 8 starts here this year – he did
pick up wins in 2 of his last Yonkers starts, but is still prone to more than his share of duds – tough spot, even if on
his game. (1) HAZEVILLE had a great streak going but just took 3 weeks off after a pair of lesser efforts
RACE 7 – Short field but a good race! (4) HEMSWORTH N has been very sharp for some time, winning 4 of his
last 8 starts (and always finishing with good pace from bad spots in the losses) – he’ll likely be the best price of the
3 main players, so we’ll try him on top. (3) RACING RAMPAGE has never had a horse finish in front of him in all
8 local starts, he hails from our leading barn, and it would be hard to make any “strong case” against him– obviously
it would be no surprise to see him take yet another. (5) TYPHOON BANNER N is another that’s been razor sharp,
and that includes last week’s very good 3 rd in the Kane (at Batavia) – the right trip makes him as dangerous as the
top pair. (2) MY ULTIMATE BYRON A is in career form and the only “knock” is the current form of the top trio –
if any of them slip, he’ll be there to take their spot. (1) CADILLAC BAYAMA is a nice horse having a fine year –
but does find himself in pretty tough here! (6) ULTIMAROCA returns after taking 3 weeks off – his 2 starts prior to
that definitely showed some regression
RACE 8 – A case can be made for almost ALL of these! (1) IM A POWERPLAY A wired the 40s from the pole 3
back then had excuses in his last pair – drops to 30s and draws the pole again...very logical threat. (4) DANCE ON
THE BEACH just threw a rare dud last week, after sitting the two hole trip – drops tonight so that could be a red
flag OR it could be his connections looking to rebound and pick up a win – tough call. (2) J B GRAM struggled for
a long time but is back racing well pretty much every week – moves up a bit (from age-restricted 30s) but still a real
threat. (6) THREE GRAND was parked the mile the last TWO weeks and still right there at the end both times –
he’s hit board in 4 of his last 5 starts, and that 20-1 ML price has to make him worth a look. (3) MIND HUNTER
has appreciated the change of scenery, with a pair of wins and a 2 nd in the 3 starts since the switch – faces tougher
here, but can’t be dismissed. (8) KOOTENAY SANTANNA jigged in this class 2 back then was 2 nd to a runaway
last week – the post is obviously an issue, but he’s too sharp to just ignore at a good price. (7) SOUTH POINT took
too long to kick in last week but just missed after he did – would have liked his chances a lot better from a good
post, though. (5) WAR DAN DELIGHT N is the outsider, but even he’s been a bit better lately!
RACE 9 – (1) MICKY GEE N was no good at all 2 back but rebounded with a much better effort last week, a game
first over 2 nd to the runaway winner – he can be tough if he can build a bit off that mile. (5) BECHERS BROOK A
has won half of his 8 local starts this year and was just re-claimed by a barn for whom he raced super in a pair of
July starts – major threat. (3) SADDLE UP was handled aggressively in his 2 nd try at this level and just missed 2
nd – could be right back in the hunt tonight. (2) UCANTTOUCHTHIS has been ok in all 4 local tries but has only
managed one 2 nd – needs to find a bit more if he hopes to challenge for the top prize. (7) FINAL CHEESERECIPE is
always finishing well and did a nice job nipping #3 for 2 nd last week – may have trouble getting into the mix from
out here, though. (4) CAUGHTINALANDSLIDE has a tendency to lag too long before finding his stride and that
would put him in a tough spot against these. (6) WICHITA LINEMAN was a front end winner off the claim 2 back
but caught in a bad spot last week – tonight’s draw could leave him in a bad spot once more