Tuesday Empire Report

soaofny • October 26, 2021

The Empire Report - Tuesday, October 26, 2021 - Race Analysis

RACE 1 - (4) ROCKABILLY CHARM has a few good Fhd. tries since recently moving to his current

connections - has generally faced better here in the past, and should be a good fit at this basement claiming

level - willing to give him a try in the opener, assuming he's not overbet. (3) BUGGER BRUISER found no

holes last week and ended up being used very hard for the lead - tired turning for home, but that was vs.

better, and he gets Jordan in the bike tonight - major threat, for sure. (1) GRAND PRIORITY was wildly

overbet in both tries since the Super Sibling claim, but at least put in a decent effort last time - should be

able to be a player from start to finish from this spot. (2) OFFICIAL DELIGHT was sharp in that win on

9/3 (his only victory of the year), but hasn't replicated that performance since - inside draw at least gives

him a chance at a small piece. (7) RECORD MACHINE just hasn't been any good since the 8/31 claim -

barn has really heated up lately, so we'll see if this guy comes to life as well. (5) PANTHEON HANOVER

had a valid excuse 2 back but was no factor at all in his last - needs to be better if he hopes to grab a piece.

(6) CANDELL is 0 for 33 on the year, usually facing even cheaper than these - pass for now. (8) BIG

SWEEP OSBORNE crushed cheaper at Fhd. last week but struggled in 3 starts against the 10s prior to that

- draws Post 8, and he's 6-0-0-0 here this year.


RACE 2 - (5) MIDNIGHT REBEL may not look that appealing at first glance, as he's just 1 for 32

lifetime, and hasn't raced since 10/1....but the free-legged shipper has been chasing some awfully fast miles

in the midwest and he debuts tonight for the Dynamic Duo....who rarely (if ever) don't have their fresh

stock ready for their best effort right out of the box - the one to beat. (4) RHODENA ROAD shipped down

from Canada and was ready for his first start in 3 months, winning his local debut handily - certainly seems

like the main danger. (1) VELOCITY GATOR ships in from Ohio showing solid form, draws best, and is a

good candidate for the bottom of exotics. (2) PINEBUSH LIFESAVER was 4th in his last pair and raced ok

each time - chance for a small piece. (6) WHAT ABOUT BOB is just 1 for 25 (10-0-0-0 here at YR) but his

last start wasn't bad - willing to throw in for 3rd/4th. (3) WINNING LINE is 7-0-0-0 this year, looks terrible

on paper but he moves to a new barn tonight while racing with Lasix for the 2nd time - we'll see if he can

improve a bit. (7) ZOES LUCKY GUY draws outside after lacking any real pop in his first 3 local tries -

will need to be much better. (8) PURPLE SKY is the outsider...literally and figuratively.


RACE 3 - Tough race: (1) LANAS DESIRE has some ugly looking lines but that's partly because he can be

hard to drive, which often leads to some terrible trips - the last two times he drew decently he picked up a

win and a close 3rd, so maybe he'll be able to take advantage of the rail draw tonight. (4) YS SUNSHINE

kept looking like he was just going to quit on the cones last week but he did persevere, and even ended up

4th at the end - he was racing off 25 days that night, so maybe he'll be tighter tonight - decent value play?

(8) ARI ALLSTAR perked up with a better try 2 back (tired after cutting the mile), then was a solid 2nd in

his last - no luck with the draw, but maybe Brennan can hustle him away to an improved spot...worth a look

at that 12-1 ML price. (2) NOBLES FINESSE hasn't been "sharp" in his last few, but he was also too far

back early on each week - a better start could have him close enough to be in the hunt tonight. (5) DLS BIG

ELVIS got away in the pocket last week and chased closely all the way for 2nd - obviously has a chance to

beat these, but he'll likely be overbet and he may not race as well with a tougher trip. (7) BRIGADOON is

5 for 18 this year but his last pair at Fhd. weren't as sharp after taking 5 weeks off - might be a red flag that

he's shipping over here and dropping in to a bottom claimer...maybe the tote board will offer some clues?

(3) NORTHERN SPORTSMAN just hasn't been good in his 3 starts since the last claim - moves inside, but

a major wakeup will be needed to make him a player. (6) VILLAGE CHAMP moves to connections we've

never seen here off a weak effort - hard to make a case for him tonight.


RACE 4 - (5) TABOOMA has been doing good work (most weeks) in the midwest, and his non-stakes

performances are strong - gets Stratton for his local debut, and we'll give him the narrow edge in a pretty

solid NW4 field. (3) SAUVIGNON BLUECHIP missed out on the stake races during this 3YO campaign

but has finally come around...and is getting sharper and sharper each week - had Brennan stayed on board,

he would have been the top pick, but he's still more than capable of getting it done with Miller substituting

tonight. (7) SETH HANOVER was strong on the PA Fair circuit at 2 and 3, and just won the Final (at The

Meadows) 2 starts back - he moves to the leading barn in the sport for tonight, and is hard to NOT include

on your tickets at that (silly) 20-1 M price! (2) SAMSON BLUE CHIP crushed the fields in his first 2 starts

off the barn change but hung a bit when 2nd in his next, then was nipped late by #3 in his last - he certainly

has a chance to beat these, but he shouldn't be the 9/5 ML favorite. (1) BRAZEN BRAZILIAN has been

very solid for several starts, draws the pole and gets Marohn on board for tonight - not sure he can beat a

couple of the top ones, but he's definitely one to include underneath in exotics. (4) DA GHETTO WIZARD

has yet to really click here for his new barn - this could be the night he perks up, but there are still several

others that just look better right now. (8) DANCE IT OUT steps up off a loss in NW2 and lands Post 8 in

NW8 - tough assignment. (6) HIGH BALLER has a few lines that could put him in play for a piece - ok

bomb for 3rd/4th if spreading in tris and supers.


RACE 5 - (6) BEST HONEY HANOVER is capable of big miles at any time, but she's hurt by

inconsistency and sometimes looking a bit hard to drive - she'll definitely be a nice price here, and that

makes her worth a stab in a race that can go several different ways. (7) SHECANDANCE N has been

picking up good pieces vs. better so that 20-1 ML looks mighty tempting - worth considering for your

tickets. (4) FEELIN RED HOT drops in for the $50K tag (rather than have to move up in class) and it does

seem like the right move - hard to say if that last win will help her build confidence, or simply cause her to

be way overbet tonight in a field that may give her trouble - willing to long for better value playing against

here tonight. (1) WOODMERE HARRIET got unexpectedly sharp in August, then leveled off when

elevated much higher than she can handle - nice mile at Fhd. last week off the sick scratch, and may be able

to do some damage from the pole returning to YR. (5) BALFAST N generally races "ok" - seems below a

few others, but a piece is within reach. (2) MALNIFICENT used nice trips to pick up 2nds in her last

pair...just not sure she can do as well if the trip doesn't go as kindly here. (3) POPPY DRAYTON N

couldn't hang on as the 3/5 choice 2 back, then was used up early in her last - others just seem sharper right

now. (8) CLASSY CHAPEL N seems too far out to threaten but if the leaders fall apart, she may be able to

rally late for a small piece.


RACE 6 - (2) VELS MR NICE GUY was always a nice horse but REALLY came into his own in those last

2 Ohio starts - Chris Page must have been particularly impressed as he PURCHASED him personally after

driving him last start - ships in to a top local barn, and deserves top billing for his YR debut. (3) PATRIOT

LINE figured to be overmatched bumping up to the $30K claimer 2 back but he was a solid 3rd, followed

by a very nice (8 hole) 4th last week - he's upped his game considerably, and could add some value to the

ticket as he moves back to NW4. (1) CONTROL ME ONCE has shown some good promise to start off his

career in Canada and debuts tonight for new connections that have done well with Canadian horses

showing far less than this guy - he's been off since 10/2, however, so it's possible that we won't see his

absolute best here. (4) JIM BLUE has been a solid performer since arriving in late August, and has 2 wins

and a 2nd from his 6 local tries - very usable in exotics. (6) STOP STARING probably fits ok with these

but will be at a disadvantage starting from Post 6 - will need some trip luck to get in play here. (7)

SAULSBROOK HERO had a tough trip in his first local try but was able to build off that and win his 2nd

start - moves up in class here (while drawing Post 7), and that's just not a winning formula. (5) DANCING

JOE just seems a bit below these - wait for a softer spot. (8) AIR GUITAR will have to pass 'em all from

out here - wait for a better draw before considering.


RACE 7 - (6) SHANWAY N jogged vs. cheaper at PcD in his U.S. debut then just missed here last week in

a NW20000 field, used in a hot opening quarter then still dead game late up the cones in a sharp 1:51.3

mile - this is actually a pretty solid field tonight, but we'll stick with him. (4) MAJOR BETTS charged

home from well back to be 2nd in this class last week, and was 2nd to Southwind Ozzie in this class (at

Chester) back on 8/15 - legitimate threat. (1) SAN DOMINO A has been somewhat in and out lately but at

8-1 ML from the pole, he's a good one to include in exotics, hoping the "good" version shows up tonight.

(2) GINGRAS BEACH normally does his most damage with easier but his barn is in a good way right now,

and this guy may be able to grab a piece, at a good price. (3) HEAVENS GAIT had no chance from 8 holes

the past 2 weeks but the move inside could see him have a much bigger impact - would be no surprise at all

(5) LIFEONTHEBEACH A seems better suited with cheaper but he's in good form right now, and could

grab a small piece with the right trip. (7) SAVE ME A DANCE is clearly sharp right now but probably will

be looking at a much tougher trip from Post 7, and may not be a fan of the wet track that is forecast for

tonight - at 3-1 ML, we'll look elsewhere, for value. (8) TOM ME GUN N isn't bad right now but is really

up against it from Post 8 against these.


RACE 8 - (2) MUSTANG BEACH wasn't as consistent in Canada as (1) CANTSTOPLYING but he did

trade victories with that foe, is off less of a layoff tonight, and figures to be the better price of the two.. and

that makes him our wagering choice. (1) CANTSTOPLYING, as mentioned, has been very consistent up

North and will now go for connections that have done well with these types over the past few years - he's

been off 17 days, though, and did lose to #2 on 9/14 - major threat, but may end up overbet here. (6)

CAPTIVATE HANOVER has been sharp almost every week recently, but always comes from well back

and that puts him at a disadvantage - may be looking at a similar scenario tonight. (5) STELLAR YANKEE

continues to improve all the time, and even seems to be navigating the track a bit better - chance for a

decent piece if the trip works out. (8) LAUGHAGAIN HANOVER is a talented Ohio-bred 3YO but he has

only 1 start in the last 5 weeks and draws post 8 for his local debut - prefer to just watch, for tonight. (4) L

DEES JACK LOPEZ seems a notch below the top players, but an easy enough trip could at least land him a

minor piece. (3) KEYSTONE NOLAN (finally) had to leave the NW4 class after that win 3 starts back,

then was no factor in his last 2 - prefer others. (7) DIAMOND HEAD looks a bit cheap and will have to

deal with Post 7 here...wait for an easier spot.


RACE 9 - (4) NOCTURNAL BLUECHIP was a bit disappointing the last stretch he was down here,

although he did win twice from 9 starts - returns from Canada in solid form, and at a level well within his

comfort zone - probably won't offer much value, but does have a good chance to beat these. (2) KIMANI N

has never been a favorite of ours but he's in reasonably good form right now, and his new barn has been

improving much of the fresh stock lately - look for a good effort tonight. (6) DA DELIGHTFUL has

always liked Yonkers so it was no surprise to see him come out on top in his return last week - this is a

tougher spot, but he still can't be taken lightly. (8) MISTER DONALD A was off the car and well out of it

last week, only to finish alertly to be only a couple of lengths back at the wire - if Holland blasts from Post

8, this guy would have a chance to light up the tote board. (5) BLACKTREE was a solid 2nd best off the

claim last week - steps up to face tougher now, and we'll see if his connections can get a little more out of

him tonight. (3) ABERDEEN HANOVER grabs his share of pieces against this type, and he may do so

again tonight - prefer a few others ahead of him. but he'd hardly be a shock. (1) AVATAR J shipped in 3

back and raced very well for 2nd...but failed to duplicate that effort in his last 2 - prefer others for the top

slots. (7) EPIC ACE was off a bad date to his last - could be tighter now, but the draw has to hurt.


RACE 10 - (1) SIMON SAYS HANOVER's last Yonkers start was on 8/10...where he jogged at this level

as the 3/5 choice, in a 1:51.4 mile - his out of town form (vs. top colts) has been mixed, but he should perk

right back up from this spot. (3) GAMBLINGTERROR has been doing good work all year, and often

outraces his odds - may be able to do the same tonight, adding some value to the exotics. (8) IMAGINARY

LINE was 3rd (at Fhd.) in his first start for this terrific training tandem, and then won his next four - faces a

tall task from out here, but he's sharp enough to make something good happen - possibility. (4) LARRY

LINCOLN N has won 3 of 7 starts since arriving in the U.S. and has proven to be an astute pickup for

Austin Siegelman - not sure what kind of trip he's looking at for tonight, but a good one puts him right into

the mix. (2) SWEET TRUTH finally found some form 3 back and has raced well ever since - may be able

to hang with this better field in his sharp current form. (5) CAPTAIN FANCY has ability for sure, but just

doesn't seem like a "Yonkers horse" - maybe a small piece? (7) IDEAL ARTILLERY hasn't missed a check

in a long time - we'll see if he can find a way to make something good happen from out here. (6) CIGAR

SMOKING TONY is enjoying a strong year (8 wins $91K), but may have some trouble finding a

manageable trip for tonight.


RACE 11 - Total crapshoot with most of the players being inconsistent, camera shy...or both! (2)

REVELRY just missed the last couple of weeks at the bottom level - steps up off the losses, but he's used to

facing tougher "when right", and at least he seems to be heading in the right direction now. (7) GRIFFON

HANOVER seems like a good bomb - he's a legit player at this level and IF he can find a decent trip from

Post 7, he'd have a chance at the upset. (1) ORILLIA JOE comes in many versions - if one of the "good"

ones shows up tonight, he could end up being a handful from the pole. (6) ALEPPO HANOVER never

wins (1 for 52 last 2 years) but his barn has been on fire, he's gone some good efforts himself, and he was

recently 2nd to Beltane A...who scored in eye-popping fashion for his new barn on Monday night --

definitely ok piece. (3) HEAVENLY SOUND goes some good miles but he's 0 for 19 here the past 2 years -

underneath only. (4) AUDI HARE N gets some post relief tonight and that may be enough to help him take

home a small piece. (5) VANQUISHED N is 0 for 17 on the season, and 1 for 20 at YR over the past 2

years - likely looking at only a smaller share. (8) IDEAL FLIP was good here in 2019 - had a terrible 2020

season, but he's done some good things in 2021 - hard to see him doing any real damage from out here,

though.


RACE 12 - (2) OUR MAX PHACTOR N has been hampered by some bad posts against much better than

these, but still raced well several times - figures to be pretty tough getting the potent potion of both post and

class relief. (3) SPORTS BETTOR can be pretty hard to predict from start to start - no factor in his last few,

but that doesn't mean he won't show up with a good one tonight - willing to include him in exotics this

week. (1) FIZZING N benefited from a nice trip last week and was able to nip a harder used #5 on the wire

- draws best tonight, and that'll help him deal with the class rise - ok piece. (5) DINA BOLT N was used

very hard throughout the mile last week and just got nipped late by #1 in a very tough beat - moves up

tonight, but sharp enough to still have a say IF the trip goes his way. (6) SPOILERONTHEBEACH shipped

up from KY and immediately handled a cheaper field at Chester for a new barn - faces tougher tonight

(from a tough post), and we'd prefer to just watch, for now. (4) YAYAS HOT SPOT N was dull in his last

pair and then took 3 weeks off - sticking with others this week. (7) B LIKE CRUISER jogged as the

favorite vs. a bit lesser at Chester last start, but lands outside tonight and is 3-0-0-0 here this year - prefer

others. (8) NVESTMENT BLUECHIP is struggling, and Post 8 isn't going to help his cause.

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