The Empire Report - Friday, October 14, 2022 - Race Analysis
RACE 1 - Tough opener! (5) GLENGARRY KNIGHT N hasn't exactly been thriving lately but he did
show some life finishing last week - he gets a switch to Bartlett for tonight and that angle may make him
worth a play in a field full of question marks. (3) SOUTHWIND MOROCCAN was an even 4th last week
and picked up a pair of 3rds at this level in early September - he hails from a suddenly hot barn, and that
makes him worth at least a look tonight. (7) BETTER B SWIFT is actually pretty good right now, but
continues to draw bad posts, while also suffering from some bad racing luck - not sure that he can reach
from out here, but he can definitely outperform that 20-1 ML price. (1) BUNGALOW BILL N gets a full
pass for last week as he got hurt badly by an erratic, tiring leader - he raced ok the prior couple of starts,
and can take home a piece of this with any half decent trip. (2) COALITION HANOVER hasn't looked
good since returning from the layoff, and was particularly poor in his last start - hard to take a short price
just hoping that he wakes up tonight. (4) MARLBANK ROAD is capable with these when in the right
mood, but he really fell apart last week and is another that would be tough to play at low odds. (6) FLOW
WITH JOE was sent off favored in his local debut and came up empty - waiting for better signs before
hopping on his team. (8) EDDARD HANOVER is used to facing better, but doesn't seem nearly sharp
enough to overcome Post 8, even at this bottom level
RACE 2 - (1) MACHEASY A has been holding his own vs. better for some time - he got a class drop last
week but was sitting 8th and did very well just to end up 4th - moves all the way inside, and an aggressive
drive from Buter should make him a big threat here. (5) LEVINE did very well at the end of his 3YO
season for Zeron, and had an overall solid year at 4 -- has struggled to get anything going (so far) as a 5YO,
but he looked MUCH better last week, almost pulling off the last to first rally (just missed to #3) - feels like
the main danger. (3) AINT HE SPECIAL was "sneaky ok" 3 back in an improved effort, was even better
when 3rd the following week then got the job done in his last (in a race marred by some confusion to the
half) - remains a legitimate threat. (2) MAJOR DESIRE was a solid first over winner last week vs. easier -
prefer a few others ahead of him tonight, but wouldn't be surprised at all to see him as part of the mix. (4)
CAMPORA N was well backed off the class drop last week and raced well for 2nd - he'll need to be a bit
sharper if he hopes to contend for a big piece in here, however. (7) RISKY MILLION is seemingly too far
back every week, and will be facing that same dilemma tonight - he could sure use an easier spot! (6) TOM
ME GUN N drops out of the 30s, but he hasn't been sharp and lands outside - maybe Bartlett can help?
RACE 3 - (2) SIMPLE KINDA MAN raced well here in limited starts last year, and was also 3 for 7
locally back in 2019 - he had no chance in his last pair at Stga. but the previous efforts would make him a
very live player here - we'll give him a shot in his Hilltop return. (4) MARTY MONKHOUSER A would
look a lot better in for $20K, but he can hold his own in 25s when he can grab an up close trip- as he should
be able to do tonight. (5) AWESOMENESS hit board in 5 of his last 6, and was parked the mile the other
week - he'll be coming late and should be able to grab his usual good piece....it just may not be the top prize
from this spot. (1) CINNABAR DRAGON has a pretty mixed bag of recent efforts - if Boyd can avoid
using him too hard early on, he should be able to finish well enough to grab a piece off this. (8) ALWAYS
AT MY PLACE shipped in from Hoosier with lines that would have normally seen him go off at least 25-1
-- but because he was joining a barn that routinely improves fresh horses by up to a few seconds, he was
sent off at 3/5...and won by five! - he tired in 40s after cutting the mile in his next, then weakened to 3rd
after cutting the mile in 30s last week - drops down tonight to the level of that smashing win, but does have
to contend with Post 8 -- would need a decent price to use him on top here. (6) SHOREVIEW hit board in 4
of his last 5 starts, but faces an uncertain trip from this spot - would still throw him in for 3rd, as sharp as he
is. (3) SWEET N FAST N has thrown more lesser efforts than good ones lately, but does hail from a hot
barn - leaning to others tonight. (7) WHITE HAIR ROCKS was used hard twice last week but was hard to
steer throughout and eventually tired - tough assignment from Post 7 tonight
RACE 4 - (5) HIGHLAND MOWGLI was a solid 2nd at Chester on 9/15 in his first start for new
connections - was a sharp winner in his next, then shipped in to Yonkers and jogged here as well - looked
like he was going to take another last week but was nipped right on the wire by a razor sharp GREY - gets
the narrow nod tonight. (6) DELAYED HANOVER won his first 2 local starts, including a decision over
the talented FLIP THE SWITCH - was forced to take back to 7th last week and lost any real chance, but
look for him to rebound with a big one tonight - the main danger. (3) EPOS OSTERVANG DK just wasn't
himself last week in a disappointing effort - he drops back in the box quickly for a top barn, so perhaps it
was just a minor issue - could be a big part of this if anywhere close to his best tonight. (2) ALTUS HANO
VER had no chance from outside posts in his last pair but moves back inside now and may be able to make
his presence felt in the latter stages - good one to include underneath. (1) EMPEREURTHEBEST FR
makes his U.S. debut after earning nearly $250K overseas - his last couple of years weren't all that
productive, however, so it's almost impossible to know how well he fits here....suppose we'll learn more
about him after tonight. (7) STARLIT RAMBO is a solid 6-3-0-3 here at YR and was a winner in his last 2
local starts before getting brutally parked at Chester last week - tough spot for his return, though. (4) SEVE
NSHADESOFGREY hasn't won in a while and has been facing lesser - looking at only a minor award
against these. (8) SWEET SOUL DAVID was not up for cutting the mile the last week, and now gets stuck
with Post 8 - inclined to wait for a better spot
RACE 5 - Very tough race! (3) PACING MAJOR N was forced to re-qualify after finishing "distanced" on
9/16 - drew Post 8 for his first start back and actually attempted a three wide back side move from last
before flattening - much more realistic spot tonight, and he's as good as any in this pretty formless field. (8)
WAVES OF FIRE A would probably be at least 50-1 from the spot....except that he's making his first start
for a barn that routinely improves formless horses by leaps and bounds - would anybody really be shocked
if he won, even from Post 8? (2) WINDSONG JACK has some pretty assorted recent lines but he does have
a pair of 2nds from his last 4 starts, and is looking at a pretty nice trip tonight - possibility. (5) ACES
ROCK hasn't been "sharp", but he does have a pair of recent 3rds and does go to a new barn this week -
wouldn't be a shock. (1) JESSICAS BEACH BOY almost lasted on the lead at Monti 2 back and Kakaley
will likely look to try that same strategy from the pole tonight - maybe he can last all the way? (4) IAMMR
BRIGHTSIDE N is listed at 2-1 ML off the class drop but he really hasn't been any good at all - he would
be tough if he found his form tonight...but hard to take a short price right now. (6) SPORTSKEEPER is just
14-0-0-2 here this year and was 1 for 26 here in 2021 - he did beat a cheap field in PA last week, but it
would still be tough to endorse him tonight. (7) BLACKLIGHT threw a major dud at PcD last week and
drops from 30s to 15s off that mile - feels like a pretty major red flag!
RACE 6 - (2) SMALLTOWNTHROWDOWN took back from outside posts the last 2 weeks and can be
forgiven for not getting into the hunt - the upside is that he took enough money off his card to be eligible to
this class, and draws a spot where Boyd can handle him aggressively - should be a fair price tonight, and
he's worth using. (3) STEUBEN HANOVER has been ultra consistent lately, hitting board in 6 of his last 7
starts (even recovering from an early break to be 3rd) - legitimate threat to finally get back to the winner's
circle. (5) BARN HALL has a 2nd and a 3rd from 3 starts since arriving at YR, and definitely fits with
these - if Holland can find him a decent trip, he can be around at the finish. (1) NO DRAMA PLEASE was
no factor in that last Pocono start but was racing well here prior to that - he's missed 3 weeks, so that's a bit
of a concern, but still willing to include him underneath. (7) CANTKEEPMIASECRET actually graduated
out of that NW6 class on 9/22 but the money cap was raised to allow her one more crack at it last week, and
she obliged with her 3rd victory in a row - has to face tough older foes now, and lands a terrible post - could
be a bit vulnerable here. (6) NEW HEAVEN has been tough to read all year - he's back down to a level
where he can perk up at any time, but this definitely isn't a great spot. (4) PLUMB was a winner 4 back off
the claim but has regressed since then - leaning to others. (8) LOS BALLYKEELAMIGO cut it from Post 7
last week and tired badly from the top of the lane - goes for a new barn tonight (off the claim), draws all the
way outside, and is tough to get excited about from this spot
RACE 7 - (3) LEAR SEELSTER may be worth a stab here - he was a winner from Post 8 in an amateur
race at Monti last week and that's just not something we see very often - maybe he can get his young pilot
his first Yonkers victory tonight? (2) TWIN B SPEED DIAL has worked out pocket trips in his last 4 starts
and that ended up in a win and three 2nds - logical threat tonight, as well. (5) GIVENUPDREAMING will
likely be overbet off that 8 hole 4th from last week but he's not a prolific winner, and could be vulnerable
here. (6) UPTOWN FUNK had a very promising 3rd vs. 25s off the long layoff on 9/9 - moved up to 30s
for his next but was a bit of a disappointing 4th, then just didn't function at all last week from Post 8 -
makes a logical drop down to 20s for tonight, and it's been noted here that this trainer does her best work
when paired up with Bongiorno (who gets the call tonight) - mixed feelings. (7) UNICO LEGEND N was a
decent ground saving 3d off the layoff last week, but the move up to 20s may be a little ambitious - Post 7
only makes things that much tougher. (8) CAROLINA MAGIC wasn't bad two back so it was no surprise at
all to see him easily defeat a weak bunch of 15s last week - moves up to 20s tonight and lands all the way
outside...and that's going to make it mighty tough to replicate last week's effort. (4) NOAHS MILL drops to
20s after a very weak effort last week - he's just 1 for 20 on the year, and seems a little shaky right now. (1)
AMERICAN WIGGLE has been on the shelf for 8 months, and that qualifier doesn't exactly scream "I'M
READY!" - we'll just watch, for now
RACE 8 - Good race: (3) HOMER HALL has been very solid in his last few starts, picking up a pair of
2nds to the very sharp H L REVADON sandwiched around a victory - one of a few possible winners in
here, but he should be a good enough price to be worth considering. (5) ON HIGHER GROUND can be
inconsistent at times, but he was an excellent 2nd behind frontrunning LEAN HANOVER last week and
anything close to that effort would make him a serious threat tonight. (4) TIMESTORM threw a total dud 2
back but was very sharp in the starts before and after that - his "good" version would have a chance to be
right there tonight. (2) HAT TRICK MARLEAU isn't quite as sharp as he was earlier this year, but he's
been doing good work recently and definitely fits well at this level - just missed to the top choice 3 back,
and looms a threat again tonight with the right trip. (7) WARRIOR ONE was on a prolonged form spree
earlier this year but hasn't been quite the same since returning from a brief layoff - has his work cut out for
him from all the way out here. (8) GREY has simply been a new horse the past 3 starts but that should
come as no surprise....as her new trainer is well known for creating "new horses" from his fresh stock -
have to believe she's going to have a hard time getting into position from all the way out here but if you
think she can, she's more than sharp enough to quickly become a serious threat. (6) SKY CASTLES was
doing good work but promptly made 2 breaks right after being claimed - qualified back easily last week,
but we'll just watch him this time. (1) VINNY DE VIE has wins coming off the bottom of his card the next
two starts - we'll start getting interested in him again when he starts dropping in class to a better level
RACE 9 - (2) LYONS JOHNNYJNR shipped in from Canada and was a winner in his first start - came up
2nd best to the oft-winning SHERIFF N the next week then 2nd best to the ALWAYS winning VENIER
HANOVER the week after that - had a bit of an off mile the following start, then landed on a horrible trip
last week - he figures to be a decent price here, and may be ready to show back up on his best game. (1)
ALOTBETTOR N has shown that he's a solid 40 with a good trip, and that's what he figures to get from
this spot - possibility. (6) TOWNLINE ALL GOOD has been finishing well most every week, his barn is
going strong, and he's a good one to include in exotics (as he's almost always a good price). (3) MARCO
BEACH was really sharp not long ago - had a couple of rough recent outings but his last suggests he may
be coming back around - worth a look at the right price. (7) EL JACKO N is the "x factor" in here - hasn't
really clicked since being claimed by our leading barn. but he drops a peg and MAY just wake up tonight -
tough call. (8) GINGER TREE PETE is definitely sharp right now and his barn is clicking too - moves up
in class and draws Post 8, however, and that figures to limit his production just a bit. (5) ASTON HILL
DAVE probably needs a class drop to be a serious threat again - minor share only. (4) DESIRES CAPTAIN
was just no good at all last week - was it just a bad blip, or does suggest that he may be going the wrong
way....we'll have a better idea after tonight