Tuesday Empire Report

apatchworkdesign • March 14, 2023

The Empire Report - Tuesday, March 14, 2023 - Race Analysis

RACE 1 - (3) CHUPPAH ON was a winner 3 back off the layoff but was forced to retreat to last each of

the last 2 weeks, and never had any realistic chance - draws a much better spot for tonight, and we'll look

for her to bounce back to one of her (typically) sharp efforts. (5) FLIP THE SCRIPT picked up a nice NW6

win 4 starts back and seemed to have pace in heavy traffic last week (trying this class for the first time) -

might be able to have a say here with a better journey. (7) ELLEOFADELI had gone virtually the entire '22

season without a victory before our leading trainer was able to get her to win 3 of 4 starts - not sure if she's

leveled off a bit or just been racing from tough spots, but this isn't a bad week to use her, as the price will

be pretty decent. (6) SPITTING IMAGE was stuck first over off the layoff and really only tired near the

end - was forced to rough it uncovered again in her next, and really didn't weaken until the latter stages

(finishing a close 4th) - might be able to pull off an upset here if the trip shakes out her way. (2) CORAL

BELLA is definitely racing better lately, although that last win was surely helped by the very slow half, and

relatively soft competition - wouldn't be a shock to see her take another, but there's probably better value

with a couple of others. (4) LAURIE LEE was able to use a perfect trip to grab a recent but she's pretty

unreliable and is another that's prone to being overbet. (1) BALFAST N is really struggling and in need of a

major wake up call.


RACE 2 - (2) SAYING GRACE N had good pace for 3rd behind a pair of sharp ones last week and now

drops down to the level he beat on 1/24 - feels like the one to beat in here. (4) DEETZY also drops down a

notch after some solid tries recent tries vs. better - figures to be handled aggressively, and could easily be

part of the exotics. (3) SOHO CHELSEA A was a winner in his first start of the year but leveled off after

that - add him to the list of "droppers" in here, and we'll see if he can find a better effort tonight. (5) MY

ULTIMATE STAR A was finally able to pick up his first U.S./YR win last week with a solid front end

score - this field is a bit tougher, and he may be relegated to a smaller slice this time. (6) HYPNOTICDRE

AM hasn't done much lately, and he's another hoping that the class drop will help - drawing outside won't

help his cause, however. (1) KNOCKING AROUND went a few good starts at Monti but all his recent

local tries have been lacking, and he's just 2 for 52 at YR over the last 3 years - prefer others.


RACE 3 - (3) HEART OF DIXIE definitely benefited from the contested pace last week but that shouldn't

take anything away from how sharp HE was - he's either been "good" or "very good" in almost all of his

recent starts, and we'll give him the narrow edge tonight over a couple of other very sharp foes. (6) LOUS

BEACH saw his chances destroyed last week when Holland decided to leave with a formless 50-1 shot to

his inside, and altered the race for him and a couple of others - prior to that he was 2 for 2 since adding

Lasix, and he can bounce right back tonight with a less eventful trip - solid player. (1) GREG THE LEG,

like most horses who have entered this outstanding barn, has improved significantly since the start of the

year - he was another hurt by that longshot last week, but still was an excellent 2nd despite taking heat

almost the entire way - would be no surprise to see him wire these. (2) BUCHANNON HANOVER loves it

in NW4 but has held his own in these NW6 fields as well - chance for a piece. (4) DP REALORDEAL was

a decent 4th off the easy trip last week, but still doesn't feel as sharp as he was last Sept/Oct - maybe a

minor share? (5) BETTOR ROLL ON A was well back and no factor 2 and 3 starts back but decided to

leave the gate last week....really hurting a couple of contenders while giving himself no prayer at all -

hopefully will just save ground tonight and look to start rebuilding some confidence.


RACE 4 - Good race: (3) LARJON LEAH came up 2nd best two back after a short break then was terrific

last week, right there 2nd from Post 8 behind the prohibitive favorite - one of several with a realistic chance

to come out on top here, (1) LINE EM UP was 2nd best to the streaking MILLWOOD BONNIE N 3 back,

won her next then was right there 3rd last week despite lacking much room in the stretch - very logical

threat. (2) NUTTINBUTHEBEST was racing off a sick scratch last week but still went a big mile on the

front end, only losing it at the very end - doesn't win as often as she should, but still deserves plenty of

respect off that last effort. (4) SARA JANE won her last start of '22 and was also a winner to begin 2023 -

hard to say if she's a little off her game right now or has just had some bad luck....but she hails from a very

live barn and will be an attractive price tonight. (6) KICKUPYAHEELS was a nice 2nd in NJ off a sick scr.

and hit board in 3 of her 4 local tries - tough draw, but a live trip puts her in play to be a big part of this. (7)

BETTER WATCH IT had a bunch of frustrating 2nds before finally finding the winner's circle last week

(outbattling #2 at the very end) - more than sharp enough right now, but will need plenty of trip luck from

out here (5) PURE COTTON is listed as the ML favorite but after winning here on 10/25 she was scr. lame,

and after missing 3+ months, doesn't seem to have found her form since returning - leaning towards others.


RACE 5 - (1) MOONLIGHT SHADOW has been in career form for some time, and now moves to our

leading barn - the race was opened up just to let him in ("NW$21,621L5"), and he draws the rail on top of

that - he's raced super for Yannick in the past and while it's fairly surprising that Bartlett opted for #8, we'll

still go with this guy on top. (2) WALKINSHAW N steps up off a loss but he raced very well in defeat, and

he can thrive even at this level when he's sharp- the right trip could put him right there (7) BLANK STARE

hasn't been doing much lately but he's been known to reverse form in the past - he's very comfortable at this

level, and has a chance to outrace his odds tonight. (8) LOORIM LAKE A was Bartlett's surprise choice,

and it's very possible the recent import has a lot more than he's been able to show so far - couldn't blame

anybody looking to give him a shot. (3) MARLBANK ROAD carved it out the last 2 weeks and looked

really good until letting it slip away late - he's clearly on his game, but may be looking at a little smaller

piece against these. (4) SMOKIN BY N tailed and dropped all the way down to the bottom levels before

recently clawing his way back up the class ladder - he feels like he's leveled off now, and we'll see if he can

find a better effort than the last couple. (6) STRAIGHT UP COOL usually does his best work with cheaper

so last week's mile was a nice surprise - not sure he can replicate it against these, however. (5) ROCKATH

ON probably needs some class relief before he can be a serious player again.


RACE 6 - (7) NVESTMENT BLUECHIP has been inconsistent and managed just one 2nd so far from 6

starts this year - that being said, he's used to facing better, his barn has really come to life lately and that last

start was actually very good - not sure if Holland can get him a decent trip here, but that 12-1 ML price

makes it worth a shot to find out. (6) BONDI SHAKE N was a dullish 4th in his 1st local start of the year

but he adds Lasix tonight, and meets a field with no killers - another decent value horse to consider. (5)

LUCIANO N had no chance in his last (Post 7) but the classy veteran did pick up 3rd in his prior pair, and

gets Gingras at the controls for tonight - possibility. (1) KERFORD ROAD A throws a good one here and

there and this is a logical spot to expect one from him - he's also 0 for 22 here over the last 2 years, so make

sure to get a decent price if playing him on top. (2) ADAM CROCKER A picked up 3rd last week but

mostly because the others were either troubled, or just no good - needs to be better to be a serious player.

(3) VEL BEITTER CHIP tried speed in his last 2 local tries but tired from the pocket both times - maybe

hecan change it up and "relax and rally" for a small piece tonight? (4) REAGAN BLUE CHIP was "meh"

vs. cheaper here back in January - seems capable of a minor share at most right now.


RACE 7 - (7) SHECANDANCE N is the somewhat hesitant choice here - she looked pretty vulnerable as

the 1/5 choice last week but did manage to hold on for the win - now she lands all the way outside but we'll

take it on faith that her connections will have her a bit sharper tonight, and be able to overcome the draw in

this pretty modest field...but be careful about taking too short a price! (5) PAIGES GIRL doesn't win too

often but is almost always good for a late rally for a piece - ended up blocked last week, but a clean trip can

land her a good chunk of this. (3) CALLMEQUEENBEE A was too far out to get involved last week but

may be able to have a bigger say with the post relief - her prior 3 efforts weren't bad. (2) HEY HEY DBAY

is one of a few from this barn racing okay right now - she's probably better with cheaper but was right there

3rd last week, and can grab a good piece tonight too. (4) STELLENBOSCH hasn't won here in ages and

does her best work with cheaper - that being said, she's sharp enough right now to grab a piece with a

decent trip. (1) ACEFOURTYFOUR ALEX just hasn't been sharp lately, but does figure to take some $$

from the pole with Gingras - others just seem to be offering better value right now. (6) CAVIART CHERIE

draws outside while off form - not a great combination.


RACE 8 - (4) SPEED MAN N took all the $$ last week (2nd start off the layoff), shot right to the top,

opened a big lead by the final turn but did have to work a bit to hang on at the end - hard to say if he was a

little tired or just "bored" with that big lead, but we'll give the classy 9YO the benefit of the doubt and stay

on his team. (3) BOILING OAR has done good work in all 4 starts since arriving from Dover - loses

Bartlett tonight, but Gingras is a pretty suitable replacement.....could be a serious threat. (1) TIME TO

DANCE shipped in formless from PA but instantly started thriving here in his new barn - did throw his first

disappointing try last week but he's right back in the box, and we'll see if he can shrug it off and bounce

right back. (2) STONEBRIDGE REX dug in gamely to the wire to prevail for his new connections in his

first local try - steps up to face much tougher tonight, and may be settling for a smaller slice this time. (5)

WICHITA LINEMAN was only 5th last time but was actually pretty sharp, pacing home strong from 3/4s -

he can grab a piece here, but it hurts drawing outside 4 other sharp rivals. (6) THEFLYINGROCK was hurt

when caught behind a quitter last week or he might have been closer - gets a tough draw tonight in a solid

field, and may be looking at only minor spoils this time. (7) BRANQUINHO looked well short off the long

layoff last week - we're keeping him in "watch mode" for now.


RACE 9 - (3) RB may have been a bit sharper a little while back and his last 2nd place finish was just "ok"

- this is a relatively soft spot, however, and he may be able to pick up his first win of the season. (1) TWO

FACED is 5-2-2-1 since arriving from Canada and while always racing "well", he's never been overly

impressive - he has a very real chance from this spot, but he also figures to end up being overbet. (8) AUSS

IE HANOVER picked up 3rds in 3 of his 4 local starts last year - he's been camera shy most of his career

(34-3-7-7) but has the speed to get into play from Post 8, and does figure to be a decent price - worth at

least considering. (4) HURRIKANE CHUCK had a short (5 starts), disappointing 3YO season but returned

at 4 to win his first two outings - was well backed last week seeking 3 in a row but came up pretty

disappointing- we'll see if he bounces right back, or if some of his previous issues are returning. (5) FLASH

GORDON raced "ok" in his first 2 local starts (5ths vs. better) but last week's 3rd (in a "fall apart" race

wasn't as good as it looks - the jury is still out on this guy. (6) OAKWOOD VEGAS IR has been a player in

all 4 local starts but he was unable to win any of them (vs. cheaper), often struggling on turns - maybe he

can grab a small piece here? (7) SPORTS SECTION actually showed some speed last week but squandered

that good start when rough much of the way, and a well beaten 3rd - guessing he'll race from well back

tonight, hoping to rally for a share. (2) VARNEY sat a perfect trip in a very week field last week and just

got up by a nose - sticking with others tonight.


RACE 10 - (1) ARTIST BEST has been inconsistent at best, but he's looking at a good trip from this spot

behind a potentially vulnerable favorite - maybe he can trip out and pull off the upset in the finale. (5) STR

ETCH THE LINE made breaks in the same spot 2 of the last 3 starts and almost broke in that same place in

the other - he's risky for sure, but he also has some ability and is another capable of an upset. (3) SPLASH

BROTHER was sent off at 3/5 vs. better last week, and was already erratic on the lead prior to whatever

happened on the final turn (seemed to pull himself up with a clear lead, ending up inside cones as well) -

maybe this is the week he brings his best and just crushed the field...but he'll be the odds on choice once

more, and may end up disappointing again. (6) THE DOWNTOWN BUS raced "well" off the class drop

last week, but not well enough to fall in love with him from Post 6 tonight - would consider if the price was

long enough. (2) CAPTAINS PLACE was a solid 2nd with the class drop last week - draws inside, and has

a shot at another decent piece tonight. (7) ONE OFF DELIGHT A is winless here since 2021 but did race

well for 3rd last week - ok bomb for 3rd/4th? (8) EXOTIC SAND isn't bad at all right now, but another

horrendous draw will likely have hi waiting (again) for a manageable spot. (4) GARDYS LEGACY A just

hasn't clicked so far since returning from the layoff for his current connections.

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