The Empire Report - Friday, September 9, 2022 - Race Analysis
RACE 1 - (1) JOJOS PLACE hasn't been any good in months, and has generally been a big-priced "auto
toss" in every start - that being said, most anybody who follows Yonkers recognizes that with tonight's barn
change, he'll likely be sent off as the favorite, with a pretty big chance at a complete form reversal (as his
new barn wins with nearly 50% of their new acquisitions) - hard to play against him, but also hard to make
any $$ betting on him! (2) OUR THIRD ROCK created a bad trip for himself last week, after landing on a
tough journey the week before - he's really not bad, though, and perhaps can add some value to the exotics?
(5) PACING MAJOR N was a nice 2nd to the runaway winner off the claim last week and should be able to
grab a nice piece tonight, as well - hard to get excited about him at that 9/5 ML price, however. (3) KEN
RICK N was heavily backed in the daily double last week (and with the opening win flash) and was able to
overcome Post 8 to win his first race since 2020 - steps up in class but draws inside, and could easily grab a
piece with a decent trip. (4) FARMERS TAN has a win and a 2nd vs. the 15s since arriving from Canada,
and now takes on the 20s for his new connections - add him to the list of contenders for a good chunk of
this. (6) DAVIDS COMING HOME was well backed last week (returning to a barn that did well with him
in the past) but was his usual sluggish self, and could only grab a 3rd - tough post to do much better tonight
(7) SPORTS BETTOR had a nice run for several starts but feels like he's leveled off a bit - Post 7 won't
help his cause. (8) WON LAST FEELING did race better last time, but tonight's post is a killer
RACE 2 - (3) CONBOYVILLE gave it a good try dropping to this level 2 back, collared near the end by
the sharp winner - no shame getting outbrushed last week by VENIER HANOVER (who has sprouted
wings since the recent barn change), and this may finally be the spot where he can pick up a long overdue
victory. (1) ALOTBETTOR N ended up being forced to park I GET THAT last week, killing BOTH of
their chances - almost has to get a much easier trip tonight, and that would make him a legitimate player
against these. (2) I GET THAT was under a drive trying for the top last week but only ended up ruining the
chances for both himself, and #1 - a more sensible trip tonight could produce much better results, as he
does fit well with these. (5) MISSILE SEELSTER has been unpredictable from week to week lately but it
has to help getting Jordan back on board, and that may help him grab a nice piece this week. (7) MISTER
SPOT A lands in a terrible spot, but he does race well for this barn - not a bad bomb to try to land
somewhere on the ticket (hoping for some trip luck). (6) GLENGARRY KNIGHT N could probably use a
better post, in an easier field - likely looking at a minor share only. (4) EPIC ACE landed on a beautiful trip
in a soft field and was able to cash in last week - he seems a notch below the main players tonight, and
there's just no value at that 3-1 ML price tonight
RACE 3 - (4) UPTOWN FUNK helped put this young trainer on the map here in 2021, but went on the
shelf at the end of the year (scratched lame), and is just returning to the races now -- he was a solid
$50-75K claimer before the layoff, and now returns at the reduced $25K level -- as noted, this trainer does
best when paired up with Bongiorno, but Buter is quite familiar with this guy....we'll bite in his first start
back. (7) MACHIAVELLI seemed like a very strange (personal) claim by a trainer who rarely gets involved
with these types - he failed miserably in his first try, and it appears he was instantly sold right after the race!
He's now back with a trainer more comfortable with his type, and that 15-1 ML makes him worth some
serious consideration! (2) MAJESTIC KIWI N gets a pass for his last (rough 8 hole trip) but has been
pretty solid lately, and seems to perform for any barn he lands in - legitimate player. (6) AWESOMENESS
got it done at 2/5 last week but was definitely helped by a dream trip - nothing this barn sends out can ever
be taken lightly, but there may be some value taking a shot against this guy tonight. (5) RISKY MILLION
gets a bit of post relief after a pair of 8 holes - he wins his share of races, and deserves a look if the price is
right. (1) SECRECY is feeling pretty good these days, and can work out a nice trip from this spot - he's
very camera shy at Yonkers, however, so make sure to get a good price if using on top. (3)
PROVOCATIVEPRINCEN really seems to need the lead to be effective, and that may be tough to do in
here - leaning to others. (8) MARTY MONKHOUSER A doesn't figure to be making too much noise from
all the way out here
RACE 4 - (1) BEACH BOOGIE couldn't sustain his bid vs. the 50s two back but was right back on his
game dropping to 40s last week, kicking home full of pace to be a close 3rd - he's one of several with a
legitimate chance in here, but the rail draw gives him the edge. (5) KEYSTONE DASH got a little weak at
the end after a strong move last week and can be forgiven - goes back to a barn that was 2 for 2 with him
recently, although that was vs. cheaper, as he was climbing the class ladder - just too sharp right now to
leave off your tickets. (3) GHOST DANCE has been very consistent lately, but that win 2 back is his only
local victory of the season (1 for 13) - definitely a chance, but don't accept too short a price. (6) THE DOW
NTOWN BUS had an 8 hole with his (new) trainer driving last week so just ignore that effort - look for a
much better try tonight, but note that he's 1 for 33 here (last 2 years) before falling in love with his chances.
(4) BETTOR BE OSCAR A raced much better in his last couple after getting major class relief - may have
gotten some confidence back, but this is also a tough field - minor share only. (2) TOM ME GUN N has
lost way too many times in NW5000 to consider against these $40K claimers - the good draw does give
him a chance to tow around for a minor share, though. (8) BARON MICHAEL struggled for a long time
but has come around nicely in his last few starts - just a brutal spot for tonight, however. (7) CAMPORA N
wasn't bad in his last, but we'll wait for a class drop (and better post) before considering
RACE 5 - (8) DIAMONDBEACH is prone to miscues and draws Post 8....but he's also a borderline Open
horse, that now finds himself in the very bottom condition - assuming he's not wildly overbet, we'll take a
chance that he can behave himself tonight, and take advantage of this massive drop. (4) L DEES JACK
LOPEZ was just 3rd in a NW15000 race 2 back, then finished well last week from a truly hopeless spot -
next in line should the top one falter. (2) HES ELECTRIC doesn't visit the photographer very often but he
does have one good brush in him - may be able to use that tonight to rally for a share (hopefully at a good
price). (5) MOHAWK WARRIOR flashed a little life when 3rd three back - no chance spot in his next, but
he did find a Fhd. field he could beat last week - may be good enough right now to grab a piece with these
too. (1) AINTNOBETTOR A has just one win and two 2nds from 23 starts this year but he has collected
quite a few smaller pieces, and the rail draw may help him do the same tonight. (3) PICARD A is one of
several horses from this barn just not clicking right now - he'll turn it around eventually, so perhaps check
the tote board for any clues that it might happen tonight. (6) REMEMBER THE BEACH doesn't look good
"on paper", but his last couple have been a little better - would prefer to wait for a better spot, but wouldn't
be shocked if he was able to grab a small piece tonight. (7) SEEUINNASHVILLE A finally entered in the
proper class last week but failed to beat a horse for the 3rd straight week after getting parked the mile - may
be ready to improve, but a better post may be needed before we see that happen
RACE 6 - (6) LYONS KING was given some time off from July after starting to tail off vs. the 75s - was
hard to get a read on him off the return qualifiers and first start, but his last at PcD certainly caught the eye
(raced out the whole way, cleared to the lead and kept on going for the win) - he actually gets a class DROP
tonight, and we'll gamble that he has another good one in him. (2) SHANWAY N was sent off favored in
this class 2 and 3 starts back but was unable to prevail on the front end either time (pair of 3rds) - he did
race well from off the pace last week, so perhaps a good trip would give him a shot to get it done tonight?
(4) CHIEFS BEACH picked up 3rds vs. better two and 3 starts back - he should appreciate the drop, and
can definitely have a say here. (3) MONTY MONO has been 2nd and 3rd a bunch of times but has just one
win from his 15 local starts - using underneath only. (8) MYSWEETBOYMAX can hold his own vs. better
than these, but he has to contend with post 8 tonight - would consider if the price was too good to resist. (1)
CINNABAR DRAGON was helped by a "fall apart" race in last week's 35-1 upset - he may gain some
confidence from it, but still seems up against it vs. a few of these. (5) KAUAI KING has been a bit better in
his last couple, but will probably need a class drop to be a serious player. (7) NOCH TEN was a "meh"
winner in his local debut, then finished up the track last week - another bad draw, so we'll pass for now
RACE 7 - (4) FLIP THE SWITCH will finally have to take on older foes tonight but the manner in which
he has routinely beaten those "NWPM" rivals suggests this group should really be no problem for him - his
only loss in the last 7 starts (by a head) came against the very talented DELAYED HANOVER, and there's
nobody nearly as scary in here - we'll stay on board once again. (3) KINDA LUCKY LINDY returns after a
couple of nice tries in PA, and this level is right in his wheelhouse - may have the best chance of these to
knock off the top choice. (5) JOHAN PALEMA was 4 for 4 here at Yonkers before last week's all-out, well
beaten 2nd - he's way too classy to ever ignore in this class, but he also MAY be a bit vulnerable right now.
(6) NO DRAMA PLEASE kicked home full of trot from an impossible spot 2 back, then was an easy
winner in his last - was scratched sick after that, however, so it's hard to know how sharp he'll be tonight...
especially from Post 6. (1) MAGICAL JOURNEY was 3rd last week but really should have been able to
grab 2nd with the trip he had - just seems well off his best game right now but he is behaving, and that
gives him at least a chance at a small share. (2) CRAZYCAT finished with good late life from well back
last week and now gets post relief - throw him in for 3rd. (7) BARRY BLACK has been up and down all
season but would likely struggle from out here even if "on" his game tonight. (8) HOCKEY HANOVER
will look better with a class drop (and hopefully better post) next week.
RACE 8 - (1) VENIER HANOVER hadn't been any good for weeks (months?) but he suddenly sprouted
wings after the barn change 2 back, delivering a pair of blowout victories - he's moving well up in class
here and lands in a pretty strong field...but it's just too hard to make a case against the current version! (3)
BLACK CHEVRON N had found some better form again before a trio of horrible posts sidetracked him -
moves back inside now, and may be able to add some value to the exotics. (6) LYONS JOHNNYJNR was
purchased out of Canada and paid instant dividends for his new connections, winning right off the bat (at a
nice 7-1 price) - came up 2nd best to a sharp/classy winner in his last, and figures to have a solid say here
tonight...as long as Kakaley can find him a decent trip. (5) MARCO BEACH comes into tonight off a pair
of dead game victories, and has been a player every week for some time - hard to not include him in exotics
(4) TOWNLINE ALL GOOD was MUCH sharper last week, giving #5 all he could handle for a long way
(and just missing at the end) - was claimed by top connections, and has to be respected tonight - just lands
in a very strong field. (7) DESIRES CAPTAIN was driven surprisingly unaggressively last week, but
certainly had pace (in traffic) to the end - would have been listed higher for tonight if not for the terrible
draw. (2) BETTER UP just hasn't looked as sharp in his last couple, and catches a very sharp bunch tonight
- sticking with others. (8) BUNGALOW BILL N is the outsider, both literally and figuratively
RACE 9 - (3) B NICKING was handled very conservatively last week after making a break the week
before - he's rock solid at this level, and gets his favorite pilot back on board - since he'll be a better price,
we'll take a shot that he can beat the newcomer. (5) RATTLE MY CAGE will be the deserving favorite,
showing several mighty impressive efforts from his 8 starts this year - he's clearly the one to knock off, but
he'll be heavily backed and it's hard to say how he'll get around the half miler - chance he could be
vulnerable. (1) NEW HEAVEN hasn't had his best year but he rallied nicely to win 2 back, then finished
well again last week for 3rd - include him underneath. (4) HAT TRICK MARLEAU hasn't been on his best
game lately, and would probably like to be in a bit easier - still, draws well enough for a chance at a piece
with a good trip. (7) ROCK OF CASHEL is still battling hard at age 12, and the $1M career mark is
suddenly within reach - lands in a terrible spot here, but may be able to squeeze out a small piece with some
trip luck. (8) NEXTROUNDSONME has been very consistent all year, but probably should have been able
to win his last (off a very good trip) - lands all the way outside now, and might look a lot better with a class
drop next week. (2) IM THE MUSCLE does his best work on the lead, vs. cheaper - we'll see if he can just
tow along tonight and last for a minor share. (6) SWEET SOUL DAVID was no factor at all last week, and
may face the same scenario tonight
RACE 10 - (3) POSH ONTHE BEACH A drops back down to 25s, where he was 2nd four starts back - he
also reunites with Jordan, with whom he has a win, 2nd, and 3rd in their last 3 starts together - gets top
billing in the finale. (2) GOTHIC ROCK turned in a really sharp try 2 back at this level, then came up a
little light after racing aggressively in 30s- the main danger. (5) ASTON HILL DAVE figures to be blasting
from the car tonight - it feels like he's leveled off lately, but we'll see if a close up trip can help his chances.
(1) TEXAS TERROR N is a tough call - he draws the pole with the eternally hot Bartlett at the lines, but
the 14YO has been getting away to horrible starts, and just seems like he may not be as interested in racing
these days - could be vulnerable at a short price. (6) SWAGASAURUSREX has been just ok, but there's
always a chance he can rally late for a piece if the trip goes to his liking. (8) SUNSETBOOZECRUISE was
handled aggressively from Post 8 last week and almost pulled off a 92-1 shocker against a weak field of 20s
- not sure the class jump to 25s was really warranted, and he's stuck all the way outside once more. (4)
MISTER HAT is off a bad date and really seems to need to be in a bit easier. (7) BARRAGE HANOVER
gets a big driver change but draws poorly and just seems too cheap