Monday Empire Report

soaofny • December 6, 2021

The Empire Report - Monday, December 6, 2021 - Race Analysis

RACE 1 - (3) DESIRES CAPTAIN rattled off 5 straight and climbed the ladder from the bottom level up to

40s - leveled off since then (along with a bunch of his barnmates), but has still been racing pretty solidly

every week - drops down to 30s and catches a field with some shaky contenders tonight...and we'll give him

the nod. (1) THISJETSABOOKIN was in his best form in ages (3 straight wins) before throwing a bit of a

dud in his last - drops in class, draws the pole, and could easily rebound for a very hot barn. (7) WESTERN

HILL has thrown some clunkers lately but also has 3 wins in his last 7 starts - at 20-1 ML, he's worth at

least considering, hoping we see the "good" version tonight. (8) HAPPY TRIO is also listed at 20-1 ML,

and would have easily been one of the top picks if not for the terrible draw - at a big price, he's reasonable

to use on your tickets. (4) FOX VALLEY INFERNO was claimed last week by an extremely sharp trainer

but was no good that night, and instantly drops below the claiming price...seems a little risky right now. (5)

IDEAL STAR N raced well for several starts after returning from the layoff but was empty from the 5/8ths

last week, and now plunges in price - major red flags with this one. (2) TREASURE MACH wasn't all that

sharp before the claim and seems to be regressing since then - waiting for better signs. (6) YANKEE OSBO

RNE is one of many from these connections that will be showing a trainer change over the next few cards -

hasn't been sharp, and we'll stick with others here.


RACE 2 - (6) ELWELL has been sharp in all 3 starts since the sick scratch, and has shown the ability to

handle any trip that comes his way - the rival who beat him last week (#2) has a post advantage tonight, but

this guy should be a better price and may be able to turn the tables on that one. (2) REGAL SON went a

BIG mile last week, and needed to in order to hold off the top choice - that stamps him as the one to beat

tonight...but he does exit a very sharp barn, and may not be quite as sharp this time around. (1) WATERW

AY is 0 for 9 at YR this year but he's very good right now, and finally moves inside - definitely can have a

big say from this spot. (7) BRACKLEY BEACH was 3rd behind the top 2 choices last week but that might

have been his best ever Yonkers effort - gets no luck with the draw, however, and that may leave him

looking at a smaller piece once more. (5) SOHO LEVIATHAN A is in the midst of an outstanding $117K

season and has been a threat at these levels for along time - his current form is a little mixed, however, and

he does come off a lesser effort last week - respect his chances, but sticking with others for tonight. (4)

YANKEE ROLLER A grabbed a 2nd and a win 2 and 3 back but that was vs. easier - may be a notch below

a few of the main players here. (3) MELODIES MAJOR drops from 75s to 40s but never really fit that well

at that higher level anyway - can definitely do better than this rating, but still prefer others.


RACE 3 - (1) TOM ME GUN N was an easy winner the last time he was down at this level - draws best,

his barn has had some live ones lately, and he should still be a fair price. (4) SIX DAY WARS has only

been "ok" in most of his 7 local tries but he gets a barn change tonight that has been successful in the past,

and may yield good results here too - definitely a good value horse to consider. (8) TIGER BARON has

been facing much time for some time - this type of field IS within his comfort zone, and he'll have a legit

chance here IF Bongiorno can somehow find him a manageable trip from Post 8. (3) PEPPER GUY should

perk up a bit in this spot - if things get testy up front, he has a chance to make some serious noise at the

end. (2) PERFECTLY CLOSE would normally be a big threat in a spot like this but he just hasn't been on

his game for a while - insist on a good price if trying him on top. (5) MCCLINCHIE N beat cheaper 2 back

but generally struggles against these types - minor share only. (7) ISLANDSPECIALMAJOR is just 1 for

17 this year and that win came vs. cheaper - hard to endorse from Post 7. (6) MATTICULOUS GB failed to

beat a horse upon arrival from Stga. and will need a major form reversal to be a threat tonight.


RACE 4 - Good race! (5) DIAMONDBEACH rebounded from a miscue 2 back to be a fast finishing 2nd

behind the heavy favorite last week - he can race on or off the pace, and we'll give him the narrow edge in a

field with several sharp players. (2) PATRIOT NATION was very sharp here for a while before landing in a

few pretty tough spots - shipped up to Plainridge last start and picked up a nice win, and he'll be starting

from the pole in his return to The Hilltop - very live player. (3) SPEED MAN N won back to back starts off

the layoff but was scratched sick from his next - hard to "love" his chances tonight, but also hard to leave

him off your tickets. (4) NVESTMENT BLUECHIP cut the mile the last 2 weeks and despite looking

vulnerable at the top of the lane both times, he was able to prevail both weeks - his confidence level should

be up right now, and he may be able to have a big say here, despite the class jump. (6) FLYING FINN N

was hurt by a conservative drive when 2nd two back, but benefited from a patient steer when 2nd last week

- sharp enough to be a serious player, but drawing outside several sharp foes could definitely hurt his

chances. (7) MOTIVE HANOVER gets stuck with Post 7 in a good field and really doesn't figure to

contend for a top spot. (8) CROCKETTS CULLEN N was no factor shipping in from Stga.


RACE 5 - (5) CHANGE STRIDE N was in a hopeless spot last week so just ignore that line - just missed

in for $50K in the start before that and his prior 3 tries at the $40K level yielded 2 wins and a 2nd - very

live player here! (1) GINGER TREE PETE was no good at all 2 back but went a monstrous mile in last

week's victory - moves to a new barn for tonight and will be a very dangerous threat if he shows up

anywhere near as sharp. (2) ZIGGY SKY normally does his best vs. much easier than these but he was

claimed by a small, yet very powerful barn last week, and it would be no surprise to see him elevate his

game significantly. (8) PROVOCATIVEPRINCEN is pretty good right now - IF Kakaley takes a shot and

blasts him off the car, he becomes a very live bomb....but likely won't get a sniff if he takes back to last. (3)

BRAVO TEX N has a pair of 3rds at this level for his current barn and has a chance at another small piece

here. (4) AMERICAN WIGGLE is winless in 10 local tries but did hit board in 4 of them - another that's

playable on the bottom of exotics. (6) VELOCITY KOMODO has a few very good recent efforts but

moves to a new barn and we'll have to see if that form will hold up - tough spot here, too. (7)

IAMMRBRIGHTSIDE N could really use a better post, in an easier field.


RACE 6 - (1) ARTIES IDEAL shook free a little too late from 4th last week and was unable to get to the

sharp winner on time - this is actually a pretty good NW30000 field (4 of them are dropping from the

Open) but when he's sharp, he can beat these - one of several possibilities in a pretty competitive looking

affair. (5) NONE BETTOR A looked super last week until the final 50 yards....and was nailed on the money

after finally weakening a bit - a similar effort could make him dangerous tonight. (6) CAPTAIN

BARBOSSA was wildly overbet in last week's Open (from Post 7, in his YR debut) and while he didn't

have a great trip, he wasn't overly sharp either - he figures to be a better price now, and it may not be a bad

week to give him a shot. (2) SHANWAY N was taking a major class jump last week (while off 27 days) and

was still right there until finally weakening midstretch - would be no surprise at all in here. (4)

MOONSHINE KISSES was no factor in his last 2 local Opens but he's capable of better - prefer others

tonight, but couldn't blame anybody for using him at a big enough price. (3) THE REAL ONE was off a

month to his last and really wasn't that bad- if the pace gets hot enough tonight, there's a chance he can rally

late for a piece. (8) OAK WOODNITOWINIT IR would need a lot better post to be a serious threat in this

field. (7) DON DOMINGO N seems absolutely buried tonight.


RACE 7 - (4) BIG SIR has gone some BIG miles lately, not the least of which was last week's powerful

first over victory in his first try at this level - he's going to be a handful if he shows up just as sharp tonight.

(5) FOREVER FAV had to abort his leave attempt last week but that worked out perfectly, as he ended up

with a 2nd over "dream trip" and collared his hard used first over rival on the wire - rock solid player week

after week. (7) LOUS SWEETREVENGE had won 3 in a row so it was a surprise to see him handled so

conservatively last week (leaving him with no chance) - will need a lot of racing luck from out here, but

he's worth a look if the price is juicy enough. (6) MR DS ROCK really started to pick up his game in early

Oct. and has been getting better ever since - moves up tonight after beating lesser in last, and we'll see if he

can hold his own against these too. (3) AMERICAN BOY N has 4 wins since mid-Sept. but only smaller

pieces in 2 attempts at this level - definitely ok for exotics. (8) TIN ROOF RAIDER gets a pass for his last

(terrible trip) but the problem is that he's stuck all the way outside tonight - may have to wait for a better

spot to be a significant player. (2) BEACH BOOGIE has been off form in his last few, and will need a wake

up call to be a threat tonight. (1) REDBANK BLAZE A is a question mark at this level AND he's coming

off a sick scratch - definitely prefer others in here.


RACE 8 - Very tough race! (2) WHITECOOKIE has been his own worst enemy since arriving, often

getting too hot early and forcing him to move earlier than necessary -- he's still raced super despite that

(except for last week), and he'll be a better price tonight...maybe a fresh set of hands will work for him? (1)

SAN DOMINO A really disappointed off what COULD have been a winning trip last week, but he's also

gone some excellent recent miles, when sharper - he's another getting a driver change that MAY agree with

him. (3) TELLITSABB saw his 4 race win streak come to an end last week when pressured into submission

by the top choice - could easily return to the winner's circle with an easier journey. (4) SOHO LENNON A

landed on the perfect trip last week and the classy 11YO knew just what to with it - yet another possible

winner in this tough event. (6) WALKINSHAW N has hit board in 6 straight (2 wins), and would be hard

not to include on some tickets at that attractive 20-1 ML price! (5) SILAS SEELSTER is definitely a notch

below a few of the top ones, but an easy trip at least puts him in play for a minor piece.(7) GLENGARRY

KNIGHT N has been on our tickets the past few starts, but has come up 2nd best (at nice prices) in 3 of his

last 4 starts - may struggle to get involved from out here, though. (8) EAST BEACH lands in a brutal spot

for his new connections - prefer to just watch, for now.


RACE 9 - (5) RECORD YEAR has certainly been having an outstanding year, finishing 1st or 2nd 14X so

far and picking up $131K - didn't have much chance in either of his first 2 starts off the last claim (7 hole

and 8 hole), but he may be getting enough post relief for tonight to be handled much more aggressively -

and that would make him a major threat. (3) JOJOS PLACE absolutely crushed the 30s off the claim 2

back, but wasn't quite as sharp bumping up to the 40s - connections elect to give him another shot at this

level, and he's definitely capable of bouncing right back to come out on top. (1) DINA BOLT N probably

just lost interest at the back last week and we're willing to give him a pass - was claimed that night by the

"Dynamic Duo", and they've won with too many of these fresh acquisitions to not include this guy on your

tickets. (2) LATE MAIL N hasn't visited the winner's circle too often this year (just 2 for 31) but he's hit

board in 10 of those losses - very willing to include him underneath. (6) EDDARD HANOVER wasn't a

bad 4th off the claim last start but he's missed 3 weeks and draws outside - maybe a small piece? (4) BLUE

BIRD RECON just fell apart off a two hole trip last week debuting for a new barn - his best work comes vs.

a bit easier, and that has us leaning elsewhere for tonight. (7) TOPVILLE OLYMPIAN has picked up

pieces vs. 50s, but his last 2 starts in 40s were from the same Post 7 that he has tonight...and he was no

factor in either - will probably just watch, for tonight. (8) CINNAMACK upset the 30s off an easy trip last

week - steps up and lands Post 8, and that's not usually a recipe for success.


RACE 10 - (6) FUNATTHEBEACH N has established himself as a very legitimate Open pacer, and has

held his top form for an incredibly long time - he was no match for #7 in his last pair (excellent efforts for

2nd), but the value will be there if you want to take a shot that he can reverse that decision tonight. (7)

TATTOO ARTIST was dominant in his last pair, and his local record is now 5-3-1-1 -- clearly the one to

beat as he looks to make it 3 in a row. (3) BEE TWO BEE had some issue here on 11/1 but re-qualified

sharply across the river on 11/20 then was a solid 3rd in a fast mile - he's done outstanding work since

joining this barn in September, and might be next in line after the top pair. (2) FUNKNWAFFLES has

enjoyed a big comeback year at age 7, already earning over $131K as his career total went past the $1M

mark - not sure he can hang with the top pair, but he can definitely grab a nice piece. (5) BUDDY HILL

looked all done on the final turn last week but never stopped trying into the stretch, and surged late for the

win as the leader got the jelly legs nearing the wire - he's really blossomed at 5 since joining this current

barn, but may find himself in a tough spot tonight. (1) PYRO remains impossible to predict from week to

week, as a quick glance at his recent efforts can confirm - guessing he might come up light against these

even if he brings his best once again. (4) TITO ROCKS is still hoping to establish himself at this top level -

won't be easy THIS week, though, as he's missed 3 weeks after a sick scratch.


RACE 11 - (6) DELIGHTFUL TERROR was wildly overbet last time but did go a big mile, doing all the

heavy lifting for the horse that sat to his back, then nipped him late - will be a better price tonight, and a

much better week to be on his time. (5) WAR N MUNN is really clicking right now, finishing strong from a

terrible spot 2 back, then charging home to miss by a nose in his last - should be a good price once more,

and has proven that he deserves a spot on your tickets. (1) MONEYMAN HILL tired after being used hard

2 back but made amends with a nice front end score in his last - very legitimate threat from the pole. (2)

MACH DORO A weakened 2 back and saw his 3 race win streak snapped, but does get a pass for his last

(when he lacked any real room in the stretch) - another with a valid chance in this very competitive field.

(4) ALEX TYE has been first or 2nd in 6 of his last 7 starts, and was caught in a bad shuffle in the other -

include him among the many possible winners in here. (8) PRINCE MCARDLE N upset the 50s two back

at 10-1 but benefited from a beautiful pocket trip (then was a front end winner at Fhd. in his next) - not

overly concerned about the bump up to 75s, but the 8 hole draw is definitely an issue. (3) RUNRUNJIMM

YDUNN N has 6 wins this year (2 of them recently) but does seem ambitiously placed at this level. (7)

OUR CORELLI N failed to reach from outside posts in his last pair and gets struck out here again.


RACE 12 - (4) DARK ENERGY N has been on a career spree for sometime, but incredibly just continues

to get even better - he steps up to the 50s riding a 3 race win streak, and will have a good chance to extend

that to 4...if he remains as sharp as he's been. (5) TONY TOO TALL sports an impressive 19-4-5-1 local

slate this year, but had no prayer at all last week in his first try off the claim - much better spot for tonight,

and a good chance for him to be a major player. (2) HEISMAN PLAYER was a winner (vs. cheaper) 3 back

moving to this particularly potent barn, rallied from the back for 3rd in his next, but was just an ok 4th in

last - needs to bring his best for a chance at that top prize. (1) KINNDER JACKSON was the lukewarm

favorite last week but came up a little light at the end - draws best for a new barn tonight, and can be a

serious factor IF he brings his best. (3) BARON MICHAEL raced well in all 3 starts since arriving from

PA, but takes a double jump tonight off the claim, and that may prove a little steep for him - we shall see!

(6) SUMTHINBOUTIM had to re-qualify after back to back sick scratches - inclined to just pass and watch

tonight, but will at least take a glance at the tote board for clues. (7) AIR FORCE HANOVER disappointed

from pocket trips in 2 of his last 3 starts and now lands outside - prefer others. (8) BALLERAT BOOMER

ANG was no threat in his last couple and now has to contend with Post 8.

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