The Empire Report – Tuesday, June 25, 2024 – Race Analysis
RACE 1 – Excelsior A 2YO Filly Trot: (2) ESME trotted a crisp :28.1 final quarter in her prep for tonight and was a
big ticket yearling ($250K) – we’ll go with her on top as these fillies all make their racing debuts. (5) TUFF STUFF
qualified twice over the half for a barn that’s been sending out live ones in the NY program for ages – very logical
player. (1) CARISAH MARIE was 2nd in her only qualifier, draws the pole and hails from dangerous connections –
would clearly be no surprise, but also may end up overbet. (4) MILLCREKS GAL broke in her first qualifier but the
homebred was a winner in her 2nd try – eligible to have a say here. (6) BOOST won her only prep at VD but in a
pretty slow mile – it’s possible she can go much faster, but she also has to contend with Post 7. (1A) METS HEART
tired in her only prep but at least she’s coupled with the very live CARISAH MARIE.
RACE 2 – NYSS 2YO Filly Trot: (1) SHONDA jogged in her only prep, hails from top shelf connections and
despite her dam’s pretty advanced age, still brought $150K as a yearling – we’ll give her the nod. (2) CALCULUS
RISK was a modestly priced baby but has certainly looked in her two preps (over the Stga. half miler) – worth a
look tonight. (5) MORNING ANGEL brought $95K as a yearling after her sister fetched $275K a couple of years
earlier -she made a miscue in her first qualifier, but trotted cleanly in her next – would hardly be a surprise. (3) R
MADDIE was 2nd best at Pocono in her lone prep but in a slowish mile – a little tough to gauge for tonight. (4) SIS
TER LO would be a surprise, for sure, but will still take home no worse that 5% of the nice $74,500 purse
RACE 3 – Good race: (4) DP REALORDEAL was a decent 4th in his first start off the barn change but a VERY
sharp winner in his next – he can handle a variety of trips, and that may come in a handy in a race that can go a few
different ways. (3) ADAM CROCKER A loses Brennan to #4 but does pick up Bartlett and does draw inside the top
choice – he already has 8 wins this year, and will have a chance at #9 if the trip goes his way. (6) JUST ENUFF STU
FF has spent the last couple of months either winning, finishing 2nd to the insanely sharp POUND FOR POUND, or
dealing with 8 holes – he’s more than capable against these but he does draw poorly, and there’s also a new pilot on
board – demand a fair price if using on top. (1) QUALITY BUD is listed at 20-1 ML but he’s usually finishing well
when not used too hard early, and could easily outrace those odds – there’s also the possibility that Dube will try to
handle him very aggressively, which may hurt his own chances, and would surely compromise a couple of others!
(2) MICKY GEE N would be very dangerous IF he brought his best effort tonight but he just hasn’t been as reliable
lately – he’s another that would need to be a “fair” price to be worth using on top. (5) REIGNING DEO got really
good for a few starts but has recently leveled off considerably – could use a wake up call! (7) CAVIART SARGENT
can be very unpredictable from start to start but even his “best” probably wouldn’t help much from Post 7
RACE 4 – NYSS 2YO Filly Trot: (4) ROYAL MISSION brought $390K as a yearling, no doubt thanks to the
success of her 3 siblings (AHUNDREDOLLARBILL (over $1M), SLAY (nearly $900K) and ROYAL FILLY
(nearly $250K last year)) – sharp looking prep, Zeron’s choice and we’ll go with her as well. (3) CHAPVIOUS is a
homebred for one of the top NYSS campaigning stables, and would be hard to fault of her two preps – could be a
big player in her debut. (5) ON THE RADIO was also an expensive yearling ($190K), and that last qualifier looks
very good – could easily be a player tonight for her small, but successful barn. (2) CASH INVASION fetched $125K
at auction, and that was way more than her dam’s first 16 foals brought – eligible to be a nice filly. (1) PAYA LA
DIVA won both of her Pocono preps and while listed on the bottom here, could easily do much better than that
RACE 5 – (1) THE GOOD DOCTOR struggled a bit in the KYSS but was well backed dropping into a NW3 at
Chester last week a delivered the dominant victory – he faces some solid foes in his YR debut, but he was Bartlett’s
choice...and ours too. (4) CRAZY WORLD has been facing easier in his Canadian career but his 24-13-7-2 slate is
hard to overlook – the last horse this owner sent down was DESPERATE MAN, and we know how that turned out
-maybe this guy deserves a serious look? (5) ENDOFSTORY wasn’t great in his local debut but certainly looked
sharp wiring ‘em from Post 7 last week – could easily have a big say here too. (2) RENAISSANCE DEO won 4 in a
row to start off his YR career but has been stuck on 2nds lately – may not even do that well in this pretty solid field.
(3) HEAVE AWAY has been a little overmatched in NYSS races and may find a few of these a little too tough as
well – minor share? (6) SOUTHWIND CELSIUS is off to a good start this year, hitting board in 6 of 8 while facing
solid stock – the only real knock here is the draw, but that MAY slow him down a bit. (7) POP IT was 4 for 6 at 2
including a win in the Excelsior A Final – off to a slower start at 3, however, and gets stuck with a poor draw here
RACE 6 - Excelsior A 2YO Filly Trot: (2) BEST SELLER LIST finished 13 lengths back in her lone prep but may
have been facing better ones – her barn has always enjoyed success with youngsters, and gets their “go to” pilot for
her career debut – should offer a fair price in a very tough race to decipher. (1A) DEVIOUS BABE’s qualifier looks
very solid and she hails from a winning team– won’t offer much of a price, however. (7) FLASHCAP qualified right
behind #1A but gets stuck starting from Post 8 – of course, if a few misbehave, she may not get away that badly –
possibility. (4) FIT N PRETTY qualified evenly, and probably will fit nicely. (5) K J TITLE shows a decent prep in
PA and can be added to the list of potential players. (1) SMOKE SHOW doesn’t appear as advanced as her barnmate
right now, but she draws the pole and did cut the mile in her prep. (3) DWS LADY DIVA is a homebred that’s hard
to gauge – maybe if the price is good enough? (6) WET SPRING seems a bit behind these coming into tonight
RACE 7 – Wide open: (6) DEVILISH DREAMS charged home from well back to be a close 3rd in her first try in for
this tag (after being scratched injured the week before) – obviously she’ll need some trip luck to win from this bad
post, but that 12-1 ML price makes her worth considering. (5) ALWAYS BE CITY raced much better in her last pair
after going OFF Lasix – she may be able to beat these with the right trip. (4) SAUBLE DELIGHTFUL recently won
3 in a row but hasn’t been able to get over the hump in her last 4 starts– definitely a threat, but note that her formerly
on-fire trainer is winless here since mid-May. (2) ON THE MONEY GB can be totally in-and-out but she has 3 wins
from her last 7 starts and has to at least be respected. (1) REAL LADY SADIE steps up off a win vs. the 20s but just
hasn’t fared as well in her starts at the $25K level – goes for new barn tonight. (3) COALFORDSNSHINE GB was
a “meh” winner here 3 back but did look very good winning her last start – threat if she brings her best.
RACE 8 – (6) HEZ ALL THE RAGE N is getting the tepid vote here – he was a game front end winner in his last
and has shown that he’s capable of good miles when on his game – he’s missed 3 weeks since that victory, however,
so that makes it tough to “love” his chances tonight – still, the one to beat. (2) SINBAD N has been a very steady
weekly player and looms the main danger...but HE comes with question marks too, as he was scratched sick from
his last start – another that’s at least a little iffy for tonight. (4) MIDNIGHT NATION has probably been a notch
below the top two but could be waiting in the wings should both/either come up flat tonight. (1) FIREARM wasn’t
all that sharp last week but he’s rallied for pieces in many of his starts – if he bounces back to his best effort, he can
grab a piece here too. (5) ROYAL DESIRE toyed with a very soft field in that win 2 back but fell apart badly when
up in class last week – jury still out. Both (7) BRUCES VO N COKE & (8) TEXAS HOLDEM are putting together
very nice 3YO campaigns but tonight’s terrible draws could slow both of them down here. (3) SURFRIDER added
Lasix last week but didn’t show any benefit (yet) – waiting for better signs.
RACE 9 – Tough race: (1) DOCS EARNEST showed little in his 2 career starts (in NJ) but he had the misfortune of
being stuck in the back in a 1:50 and 1:48.4 mile – he MAY just perk up in his local debut, facing this much more
modest bunch and is worth a look, if the price is right. (3) STONEBRIDGE PATROL has been improving and was a
winner last week – he beat a very easy field, however, and will likely be overbet tonight. (4) LAST POUND moves
to a new barn, adds Lasix and does have a pair of recent wins – that 8-1 ML price does give him some appeal. (2)
HURRIKANE MIKI usually finishes with some pace – if he’s close turning for home, maybe he can make some
noise tonight. (8) DEALERS TURN was a close 3rd here 4 back and has shown a willingness to leave the gate – a
fast start could give him a chance at a piece, at a big price. (5) MAN RAY, (6) DO MISCHIEF, and (7) WATCH YO
UR TONE are a combined 0 for 46 with just 3 seconds among them – hard to really like any of their chances
RACE 10 – Very tough finale! (4) CALLMEQUEENBEE A was bumped up to 50s off the claim and flew home in
the lane to just miss – barn has really come to life recently, and she’s one of several good “value plays” in this wide
open affair. (6) OKINAWA BEACH A is listed at 10-1 ML but jogged at 3/5 the last time she was in this class – has
to be worth considering! (2) BIG BIG PLANS win at this level last week and has been solid in most of her local
starts – another very logical contender. (1) PARADISE ROCK L has certainly done good work at YR, compiling a
24-7-3-9 record – draws the pole, and could have a big say tonight. (7) IDEALINFUN has been razor sharp but goes
to a new barn tonight and draws an awful post – can’t dismiss, but would want a better price to try her on top here.
(8) LLOYDS LOVES may prove to be an astute claim for $30K as the horses she beat in her local debut are worth
more than that – brutal spot in her first start for new connections, but still can’t count her out. (3) TWIST LITTLE
GIRL N gets a much better draw for her 2nd local try and it’s reasonable to expect improvement – maybe a small
piece? (5) CHILLIN BYTHE POOL does seem a bit overmatched at this level.