The Empire Report - Monday, July 12, 2021 - Race Analysis
RACE 1 - (2) BLUEBIRD RECON was a decent 3rd last week after weakening a bit in his prior 2 starts
(when used hard early from Posts 7 and 8) - overall recent form has been solid, and he's in a good spot to be
a major threat in a somewhat suspect field. (3) MY MIND IS MADEUP has definitely improved for the
"Dynamic Duo" but he still hasn't cracked the winner's circle - definitely should be a major player here, but
he's way too camera shy to take too short a price (on top). (1) MAGRITTE has been struggling for a long
time, but his barn did send out a VERY live player last week (Tony Too Tall) - maybe this guy can show up
with an improved effort tonight? (6) BIG SIR disappointed in his local debut when he weakened from the
pocket last week - drops a notch tonight, so perhaps he can be a bit stronger with this bunch. (4) MACH
IAVELLI has been away for 5 months so it's hard to understand how he could be installed as the 5/2 ML
favorite - prefer to just watch, for now. (8) MARTY MONKHOUSER A is a good fit in this class but lands
all the way outside for his new connections - maybe if the price is long enough? (7) TALK SHOW really
hasn't clicked since the claim, and now lands Post 7 - will need to be sharper for a chance at even a decent
piece here. (5) ROCK THE NITE has been no good at all in 2 starts since the claim - remains a pass
RACE 2 - (5) TIME OUT IM TIRED has been very sharp for a small barn that's been outstanding lately -
he can race from on or off the pace, and could definitely offer some decent value in this evenly matched
affair. (4) RECORD YEAR was much sharper than his last line would suggest, moving three wide TWICE
and still right there 3rd at the end - he has 6 wins already this year, and is another one worth including on
your tickets. (2) MAJOR CROCKER A was unable to come close to beating the 25a for several starts but
then really upped his game in his last starts, rallying for 2nd to repeated Nocturnal Bluechip, the
(surprisingly) cutting the mile vs. 30s last week, and holding for 2nd - legit threat in his current form. (3)
MAROMA BEACH is hard to predict from week to week but he does grab his fair share of wins when he
lands in the right spot - could be a player here. (1) SPORTS BETTOR generally does his best work vs.
cheaper - good spot may land him a piece, but prefer others for the top slot. (7) DREAMFAIR CHARRO
will be helped by the drop, but that may be offset by the outside draw - wouldn't be a shock, but he would
certainly be a surprise. (6) TOPVILLE OLYMPIAN is racing ok lately but he may be a bit cheap, and he's
also been away for nearly 3 weeks. (8) KINGSTONS BAD BOY does his best work vs. 20s, but now finds
himself in 30s, from Post 8 -- tough spot
RACE 3 - Good race! (1) BARBADOS was very impressive in his first off the claim last week, charging
by the field through the stretch to win going way for his new (high powered) Canadian connections - should
be able to get a little battle in front of him tonight and if that does happen, he'll have a decent chance to step
up and beat the 40s too. (6) EFFRONTE A is just one of several horses in this barn that were pretty much
non-functional for their previous trainers, then instantly became winning machines overnight once moved
to easily the hottest conditioner in the business right now - this guy is particularly impressive since his
former trainer (and STILL owner) is a world class conditioner himself! Hard to leave off the ticket, but he
MAY find himself dealing with a pretty tough trip from this spot....and even this barn loses a race here and
there. (4) SPORTSKEEPER suddenly perked up on 5/14 with a win over cheaper at Chester and has been
very sharp since then, even while rising up the class ladder - very legitimate player (5)
IAMMRBRIGHTSIDE N had been winless at YR for 3 years but now has taken back to back victories -
have to respect in raging current form, but he doesn't draw the pole tonight, and may be looking at a much
harder trip. (3) KEPT UNDER WRAPS A has been very solid, but may be a notch below a few of the top
ones - thinking he's looking at a smaller piece tonight. (2) GUMPTION is very hard to gauge - he was
incredibly sharp in that win 3 back, got worn into submission in his next (but not bad), then just failed to
function in his last - no idea what to expect tonight. (7) EGOMANIA will look much better with a class
drop, and better spot. (8) HASH TAG SWAG was a solid 2nd in his YR debut (to #6) but now goes for a
new barn, from Post 8, while up in class - prefer others.
RACE 4 - (1) WALKINSHAW N has disappointed a few times this year but also won 4 races, including
last week's dominant front end score - he steps up a notch tonight but his barn has been heating back up,
and he'll get to control the action once again - good chance he can make it 2 in a row if he shows up as
sharp. (2) GLOBALDOMINATION N easily handled a weaker bunch 2 back then had no prayer in last -
moves inside, and looms a very logical threat to the top one. (7) IDEAL ARTILLERY was a winner one
level down 2 back, then unable to get involved from Post 7 in last - Marohn needs to be aggressive with
him tonight for a chance to be a player. (3) TOM ME GUN N was favored 2 back but saw his chances
dowsed when 2nd best to a form reversing EFFRONTE A - made amends with a nice 5-1 pocket victory in
last, and he's sharp enough right now to grab a good piece tonight, even with the class bump. (4) ALEPPO
HANOVER worked out pocket trips the last 2 starts and parlayed them into a pair of 2nd place finishes -
may not be as lucky from this spot, but still one worth including underneath. (5) ABRAXAS BLUES A's
last line doesn't look great on paper, but he really wasn't bad - not a bad bomb to use for 3rd/4th. (6)
SPORTY DRAGON has a couple of decent NW4 tries for a barn going well now, but he faces older foes
tonight from a tough spot - will wait for better scenario. (8) HEAVENLY SOUND drops one notch, but still
doesn't figure to make much noise from all the way out here.
RACE 5 - VERY sharp bunch of $50K claimers! (2) ROCK LIGHTS was either going to win (or be 2nd)
on 6/21 when he grabbed a shoe on the final turn, almost went down, then set off a chain reaction with the
horses around and behind him - the qualifier at Stga. suggests that he's just fine, and we'll give him a
narrow edge in a field stacked with sharp performers. (5) FOREVER FAV has thrived ever since the Aptil
claim, and has proven he can beat these - very legitimate player. (1) YANKEE BOOTS shipped in from
Ohio and beat this class at first asking, as the 1/5 choice - exits the barn of the "Super Siblings", however,
so he does seem a lot more vulnerable tonight...still very possible, though. (3) SOHO LEVIATHAN N
seemed like a risky claim for $40K but he's come up with a strong pair of 2nds since then - deserves plenty
of respect here. (8) JUST PLAIN LOCO lands Post 8 up in class - that normally seals one's fate but this guy
is SO sharp right now, he really isn't a bad horse to include at a big price. (4) TOWNLINE FLIGHT keeps
moving up each week off 2nd place finishes - have a feeling he won't be as successful against this bunch,
though. (7) TOWNLINE ALL GOOD has been racing okay, but it'll be very tough for him to overcome the
draw in this stacked field. (6) YANKEE OSBORNE moves up in class, draws an outside post, and lands in
a barn that hasn't enjoyed much success here over the years - sticking with others.
RACE 6 - (5) EHRMANTROUT was a sharp front end winner at this level 3 starts down, then had no real
chance from the back of the pack against better in his last pair - this is hardly an "easy" spot, but he'll likely
be cranked up for a big effort tonight...we'll give him the nod. (1) NONE BETTOR A has thrown a couple
of good miles this year but for the most part, has struggled through his first 7 starts - definitely showed
some positive signs in last (at Chester), and lands in a good spot IF he's ready to come up with a top effort.
(6) BETTOR THAN SPRING has been sharp for several weeks now, and that includes his last start - he'll
be a nice price here, and is definitely worth considering. (2) BRONX SEELSTER only recent win came vs.
lesser, but he's sharp enough to contend in this class as well - just not worth taking a very short price. (4)
SILAS SEELSTER is just 1 for 16 this year but he does have 5 seconds - chance for a smaller piece, with
an easy enough trip. (7) MOHAWK WARRIOR dies his best damage down a peg, and with a better post -
pretty rough spot tonight. (8) GENIUS MAN lands Post 8 and has missed 3 weeks (scr. sick) - we'll just
observe this week. (3) SOUTHWIND MOROCCAN will get back on our radar after he drops a class or two
RACE 7 - (5) DRAGON SAID was a non-factor in the bottom classes at Freehold to start the year - his
training was taken over by the "Super Siblings" on 2/23 and he hasn't lost since, going 7 for 7 including a
powerful win in the M Life Final, and a beyond eye-popping 1:49.4 score last week, just 1 tick off the
all-age track record - the only question is how have no stories been written about what could be THE
greatest short-term turnaround the game has seen in years! (4) MACH N CHEESE crushed this class here 3
back, and was then in tough in his last pair across the river - if you think the top choice is due for an off
week, this guy would make for a good play. (3) FINE DIAMOND upset this class 3 back, and was a game
1st over 3rd in his last - definitely a good one to use in exotics. (1) PYRO took a couple of weeks off after a
pair of dull ones, but he's rebounded a few times already this year - maybe he can show up sharper tonight,
and make use of the rail draw? (2) UPTOWN FUNK has been enjoying a very lengthy form spree, even
picking up a 3rd in last week's Open - will sit the cones and hope for some trip luck...and that may land him
a small piece. (6) ROCKAPELO was bet dead and raced dead of a "meh" qualifier at Gaitway - check the
tote board, but the guess is that he'll likely need another start. (7) CASUAL COOL's 5 race win streak is in
serious jeopardy from Post 7 - undeniably sharp, but can he find a manageable trip from out there? (8)
RAUKAPUKA RULER N now has 2 wins, and 2nd and two 3rd from his last 5 starts, including last week's
sharp tally - may have a LOT harder time getting into the hunt tonight, though!
RACE 8 - (5) ON THE CARDS shipped in sharp from out of town on 6/21 and went a HUGE mile, parked
every step from Post 8 and still right there 3rd on the wire - paced home in :25.2 from a no-chance spot at
The Swamp in his next, and we'll give him a shot to come out on top in his YR return. (1) BILL HALEY N
charged home full of pace last week from a less than stellar spot - draws inside again, and he's capable of
being right there if he brings his "A Game" tonight (2) BUDDY HILL improved dramatically after entering
this barn back on 5/10, and he's in career form at the moment - would be no surprise at all. (3) CAPOZZO
was 2nd best to the class Ideal Jimmy 2 back, then too far back to threaten in last - moves inside gives him
a chance to take home a decent chunk here. (4) ON THE VIRG probably needs to be in easier to WIN, but
he's shown that he can save ground for pieces against this type - ok for 3rd.4th. (6) ROCKIN SPEED was
right there off the pocket trip 2 back, but wilted after trying to cut the mile in last - tough draw figures to
limit him to a minor share tonight. Both (7) ITALIAN DELIGHT and (8) FLYING FINN N are sharp right
now, but the two of them land outside while moving up in class - major trip luck would be needed here
RACE 9 - (1) FUNKNWAFFLES has really seen his game pick up after adding Lasix 4 starts back - has
the back class to handle racing up at these levels, and is looking at a good trip with the rail draw - gets the
narrow edge over a few other sharp rivals. (2) WINDSUN RICKY made a BIG recovery after an early
break 2 back, then was a very game first over winner in last - when he's good (as he is right now), he's a
major threat at this level. (3) SHNEONUCRZYDIAMND A can be a little unreliable at times but on his
best, he'd be a threat here - worth including IF the price is decent. (6) THE WILD CARD was too far back
to threaten in his last pair and may end up in the same boat tonight - still, willing to throw him on the
bottom of exotics at a nice price. (5) LISBURN has maintained strong form for some time but may be
pushing it up at these levels - maybe a minor share? (4) AINTNOBETTOR A was a dead game winner over
lesser 2 back, then stuck with Post 8 in his last 0 will appreciate the better draw, but still may be a bit below
a few of these. (7) RUNRUNJIMMYDUNN N moved up off losses and draws Post 7 - wait for a better
spot. (8) DANCIN DRAGON drops, but doesn't seem too sharp right now, and draws Post 8
RACE 10 - (4) KEEP ON ROCKING A last 2 starts here in April produced a 2nd in the Preferred, then a
win the Open - has held his form ever since then out of town, and now fits NW15000 for his return - pretty
hard to go past him. (1) PERFECTLY CLOSE just missed vs. better 2 back, then lacked much stretch room
in his last - logical one to complete the exacta. (3) NVESTMENT BLUECHIP was a very nice 8 hole 3rd in
this class 2 back, then 3rd one level down in last - good chance he can land somewhere on the ticket tonight
(6) FIZZING N was a solid winner one level down in last - tough draw moving up tonight, but this versatile
sort has a chance to pick up a piece if the trip is kind enough. (2) BENHOPE RULZ N is in a bit too steep
to be a serious threat for a top spot here, but he's also capable of towing along closely and lasting for a
minor share. (5) BLACK CHEVRON N was a very opportunistic winner in last (as the leader just drifted
off the cones to the cones, allowing this guy to take over, and steal the victory) - overall form is decent,
though, so that gives him a shot at a decent piece. (8) SANTA FES COACH figures to trail throughout -
and that will make it tough for him to get himself into play. (7) OUR MAX PHACTOR N was worn down
by the tripsitter in a cheaper field last week - outside draw will limit his options tonight.
RACE 11 - Tough race: (3) IMSTAYNALIVE paced a sharp final half for 4th in last week's Open - this is
an easier spot, he's been sharp for a long time, but he'll still need to land on a good trip to get it done tonight
(2) SAN DOMINO A landed on a brutal trip last week but still raced very well - not always on his "A
Game" this year, but a solid threat at this level when he is. (1) LUCIANO N has been in a good way for a
while now, even holding his form at higher levels - speed, rail, & a chance for a good piece. (8) SHADOW
CAT has a chance to beat these, but will need Siegelman to be aggressive for that to happen - if you think
he'll be leaving the gate tonight, then by all means use him on your tickets. (4) BETTOR MEMORIES was
very good beating easier 2 back, but he's not so reliable right now against these types - ok for a piece. (6)
KINNDER JACKSON is sharp right now, but may not get as good a trip as he's used to from Post 6 tonight
(5) SOME WARATAH A feels like he's leveled off after an excellent run upon arrival in the U.S. - will
need to perk up to be a player tonight, but that's not impossible. (7) TIGER BARON will have a hard time
entering contention from Post 7
RACE 12 - Strong finale: (7) NANDOLO N just wasn't right in his local debut (disliked being on front
end?) but he re-qualified nicely and was an "ad advertised" impressive winner in his next start - don't think
the class jump will bother him but Post 7 is a legitimate concern - since he'll probably be a decent price,
we'd be willing to take a shot with him. (4) MICKY GEE N looked much more like the "old version" last
week as he charged on by for the win into the teeth of a sharp final half - may very well be a repeat winner.
(2) ESCAPETOTHEBEACH had no prayer of getting involved from Post 7 last week but he was on a long
form spree prior to that - could bounce right back tonight with the move inside. (6) GALANTE A is a
favorite of ours, and comes off a strong 2nd to the 1/10 choice last week - at 20-1 ML, you can be sure he'll
be on some of our tickets. (8) PEACE OUT POSSE is hard to fault, another typical weekly hard knocker
from this high % barn - has a bunch of sharp ones to his inside tonight, and that has to hurt his chances
significantly. (3) CAVIART LUCA may be in a tough spot as the pair inside of him figure to leave hard,
and that could leave this guy with a tough trip. (1) MARK WITH A faltered on the leader last week and had
to settle for 2nd - lands in a tough field tonight but does have the pole - mixed feelings. (5) IDEAL JIMMY
has won 3 of his last 4 and is still being picked "last" for tonight....and that tells you all you need to know
about the quality of this field.