Friday Empire Report

soaofny • July 22, 2022

The Empire Report - Friday, July 22, 2022 - Race Analysis

RACE 1 - (5) B NICKING earned his way all the way up to the Open thanks to a recent form spree and

even managed to race well at that top level, finishing just behind 3 high quality foes - gets an important

drop, and may end up with a live trip in this highly competitive opener - should be a good value play. (7)

WARRIOR ONE was sharp for what felt like an eternity before finally throwing a couple of lesser efforts -

his qualifier suggests that the brief time off has benefited him, and he has to be respected here...even from

Post 7. (4) SECRET BRO is another who benefited from time off, scoring nicely from the pocket last week

after re-qualifying - no reason he can't be a player tonight, as well. (6) MELADYS MONET didn't look as

sharp in his last couple but the ageless 13YO has rebounded from weaker efforts about a zillion times

throughout his incredible career - can never be counted out against this type. (3) LEAN HANOVER steps

up off a pair of wins, but really benefited from the trip in each case - his confidence level definitely could

be up, but we're still leaning to a couple of others in here. (1) KNIGHT ANGEL benefited from a very easy

two hole trip in his YR return and was a solid 2nd last week -this is a much tougher spot, and he'll have to

prove he can handle it. (2) FOCUS POCUS looked very good off the barn change a couple of months ago,

but does feel like he's been tailing a bit - prefer others at the moment. (8) STONEBRIDGE GAMBLE

draws Post 8 off a break - guessing we won't see his best from this spot.


RACE 2 - (1) PRINCE MCARDLE N beat the 75s just 3 months ago so the 9YO has clearly fallen on

some hard times - he did hit board in 2 of his last 3, however, and his main foes in here are as shaky as he is

- we'll give him top billing, but certainly won't be betting the mortgage money at a very short price. (2)

WHI TE HAIR ROCKS hasn't clicked yet for our leading barn but the fact that he's 1 for 52 over the last 2

years shows that he hasn't really clicked for anybody- may be able to either outrun, or outbrush this crew,

though. (5) SO MANY ROADS has been drawing so poorly that the move inside to Post 5 may be very

helpful - his game is to sit back and rally late...and this may be a spot where he can make that pay off. (3)

HES ELECTRIC is one of several camera shy participants in here, but the good draw makes it possible that

he can rally late for a decent share. (6) IM J BEE N did win here on 4/30, and has picked up some small

pieces lately - would have given him a longer look had he not drawn so far outside. (4) SECRECY is

always hard to consider on top, as he's just 1 for 43 here over the last 2 seasons - always a chance for a

small share. (7) KNOCKING AROUND is 2 for 49 over the last 2 years and draws all the way outside -

hard to recommend.


RACE 3 - (3) BET THE LIMIT debuted here for his new barn last week looking a little cheap on paper,

and with a pair of "no interest" qualifiers (with his trainer on board) -- Kakaley must have known he'd be

pretty good, though, as he handled him very aggressively, and was able to score right off the bat - stays in

the same class, meets nothing too scary, and has a solid chance to take another. (1) ACES ROCK beat the

20s in PA 4 starts back, and was "ok" in his last 3 - drops to 15s for tonight (only other start here was for

$30K), and has to be seen as a valid threat from the pole. (4) WAVES OF FIRE A was well backed off the

claim last week, quarter moved to command but failed to keep it going into the stretch - we'll see if they

can get him a little sharper for tonight. (2) P H KENNY probably hasn't been at his best lately, but he's still

a very steady player at this level - chance for a good piece, but may need a couple of others to falter for a

chance at the top prize. (5) CHUMLEE A shows a mixed bag of lines as he makes his first appearance here

since 2020 - he did win 13 races over the last 2 years, so he does deserve some respect. (6) CASHNCAM

reversed form in that upset win 3 back, but reverted to his lesser efforts in his last pair - draws outside, and

we'll stick with others. (8) BLUEBERRY HEAVEN was pretty good for a while, but doesn't seem sharp

enough right now to have much say from Post 8. (7) SPORTSKEEPER picked up a 3rd two back but that's

one of the few highlights he's had here this year.


RACE 4 - (6) LUC ROCKS was a rallying 3rd at Chester in his first start for the Super Siblings then was a

close 4th last week in NJ, despite 3 weeks off - makes his YR debut at the bottom level, and may even be a

decent price - worth a play. (8) BELTANE A can hold his own with much better than these, but isn't really

the handiest horse and has to find a way to overcome Post 8 - still worth using, as long as the price is right.

(1) AWESOMENESS debuts tonight for hottest trainer/driver team on the planet, and also draws the pole -

obviously there's a good chance we'll see a big effort from him, but he also figures to be wildly overbet...

despite his 2 for 48 record here over the past 3 years - could be vulnerable. (2) SPOILERONTHEBEACH

was much sharper earlier in the year, so we'll see if last week's win over cheaper in PA gives his confidence

a boost - willing to include underneath. (3) MY CARBON COPY N really had no pop last week even

though he did finish 3rd - needs a sharper effort to be a serious player tonight. (7) SETTLEMOIR moves to

a barn that routinely improves fresh horses in dramatic fashion -- he's also 21-0-0-2 at Yonkers (past 3 yrs.)

and that means that MAJOR improvement will be needed with this guy - will be interesting to see how this

claim turns out. (5) SOUTHWIND MOROCCAN grabbed a win at Tioga 2 back but seems a bit cheap for

these right now. (4) PINEBUSH LIFESAVER just looks overmatched against these.


RACE 5 - (6) EPOS OSTERVANG DK carries some risk as he was scratched sick from his last but he

drops right back in the box, has been in career form, and gets Bartlett back in the bike - as long as he's not

wildly overbet, he's worth a play. (5) KINDA LUCKY LINDY had been stuck too far back in tough fields

for several starts - dropped in class and had a better getaway last week, and came up 2nd best to a razor

sharp rival -- not a fan of that 9/5 ML price, but he does have a solid chance in here. (3) IM THE MUSCLE

does his best on the lead vs. a bit cheaper, but still can be considered here (at least in exotics) assuming the

price is decent. (4) NEW HEAVEN is just 1 for 16 this year and does seem to have lost a step - still has to

be considered for exotics from this spot, though. (1) PUBLICITY SEEKER tried to cut the mile moving up

to this class last week but got pressed hard and weakened a bit late - may be stronger at the end with a more

conservative approach. (2) SEVENSHADESOFGREY really wasn't bad from a hopeless spot last week,

racing off a bad date - wouldn't be shocked to see him have some impact here. (7) GEMOLOGIST wasn't

able to rally last week and now draws Post 7 - might look good with a drop to NW10000 next week. (8)

FANATIC never got close from a similar spot last week.


RACE 6 - (6) MISSILE SEELSTER drops to the bottom level and he never really embarrassed himself

racing against the 40s all those weeks - not a bad bomb to try in a race crying out for a longshot winner. (3)

MARLBANK ROAD started off his 4YO campaign decently enough, but just hasn't been able to get into

any kind of groove - maybe tonight's post relief can help him find a better effort? (1) VIRGIN STORM will

be the big favorite here, but he's 0 for 8 here in 2022 and didn't look too good in his last two starts - may

just come alive on the front end against this pretty soft bunch, but the better value seems to be in taking a

shot against him. (4) SANTAFES COACH really didn't fire last week but he does have 2 wins from 11

starts here this year - wouldn't really be a surprise. (8) GLENGARRY KNIGHT N might have been the

choice from a better post, but he could only manage a 2nd and 3rd since dropping to this basement level,

and now he has to contend with Post 8 - just a tough spot. (5) AINTNOBETTOR A was a dullish 3rd off

the claim 2 back, and no factor in his last - needs to pick things up if he hopes to be a contender tonight. (2)

JOJOS PLACE has been struggling for a long time - not sure the inside draw is enough to make him a

contender. (7) REMEMBER THE BEACH seemed to be in a good spot last week but saw his chance go up

in smoke with a break before the start - tough draw for tonight.


RACE 7 - (3) MY MIND IS MADEUP has 3 wins here this year, including the 110-1 shocker 3 starts back

- he gets his first good post in ages, and may be able to pull off the upset (a MILD one this time) if the trip

goes his way. (4) MARINER SEELSTER put together a $135K season at age 12, and is on pace to do much

better than that in 2022 - comes into tonight having won his last pair, and is a strong threat to extend that

streak to 3. (1) MIKEY CAMDEN took a couple of starts to find his form after shipping down from the

Maritimes, but the Dynamic Duo have him clicking right now - major threat from this spot. (2) BEACH

BOOGIE came to life with a much better effort 2 back but just wasn't sharp in his last, and has missed 3

weeks since - consider for a smaller piece only tonight. (5) MONTY MONO did fine work for weeks in the

30s, but he's still unproven at this $40K level - not writing him off yet by any means, but we'll stick with

others until he shows he really belongs here. (7) ABERDEEN HANOVER has been very consistent lately

(even before the recent claim) but he's 0 for 16 here this year, and was 1 for 24 last year - poor draw seems

to have him destined for only a minor share. (8) SEAFARER has enjoyed an outstanding season but may

have trouble finding a way to overcome the draw tonight. (6) LITTLE POWER's 5 race win streak came

screeching to a halt last week after moving up to 40s - prefer to just watch, for now.


RACE 8 - (4) HILLEXOTIC never seems to go a bad one here, as his 14-7-6-0 record can attest to - came

up 2nd best in his last two Open attempts, and we'll look for him to get over the hump tonight...and into the

winner's circle. (2) STORMY KROMER may not bring his absolute best every week, but last week was a

reminder how good he CAN be, when on his best game - draws inside his main foe once again, and it

would be no surprise if he was able to take another. (3) REFINED had 9 wins for $190K last year

(primarily out of town), and is already 6 for 14 in 2022 - barn is having an excellent local meet, and most of

these shippers have thrived - not impossible, although she may not be as handy as the top pair. (1) KENZIE

SKY HANOVER is 7-3-2-0 here this year, but has to face the boys tonight - probably looking at a smaller

piece, even from the pole. (5) ON HIGHER GROUND suddenly came to life on 5/31 and has held that

good form ever since...although he still would prefer to be in a bit cheaper - chance for a minor share. (7)

MISSISSIPPI STORM was well backed from the pole last week but never really looked "strong", gapping

in the pocket before ultimately tiring - others just seem sharper right now. (7) SKY CASTLES got sharp in

a hurry after changing barns, and that form spree has quickly landed him in the Open - would give him a

more serious look had he not drawn all the way outside.


RACE 9 - (2) SON OF A TIGER N has held his own here at much higher levels - returns from Tioga off a

sharp 2nd place finish, and seems to have landed in a winning spot. (5) BIG SIR was handled aggressively

last week and ended up having to park OUR CORELLI N the entire way - he paid for it late, but still held

well to be a close 3rd - could be the main danger tonight. (4) LIFEONTHEBEACH A was a complete bust

for the Super Siblings after being claimed for $40K, and they were fortunate that our leading trainer jumped

in and claimed him for $30K last week - we'll see if his new barn fares any better than the last one. (1)

ODDS ON DELRAY is far too unreliable for our tastes but his "good" version would have a chance to grab

a decent piece from this spot - just hard to ever know what to expect from him. (3) ITSMYCHECK GB got

it done last week at the bottom level, but was just ok - steps up tonight and loses Jordan...but may still be

able to sit back and rally late for a share.(7) MOHAWK WARRIOR is at a good level right now, but draws

a terrible post - figures to be limited to a minor share from this spot. (6) DRY RIDGE ACE has some solid

overall recent form, but facing a bit easier - not sure how much real damage he can do from this spot. (8)

IM BENICIO A had that big winning effort here on 6/7 but did little before that, and has done very little

since - needs to find that better form.

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