The Empire Report - Friday, July 7, 2023 - Race Analysis
RACE 1 - (2) MAN DONTFORGET ME has been a serious player in the Open for weeks and now drops
down to the level she beat on 5/1 9- she faces a couple of tough ones in here, but the road to the winner's
circle does go through her. (1) MILLWOOD BONNIE N was forced to race from the back the last few
starts but always finishes with good pace - she'll be right up close to the action tonight, and should be right
there from start to finish. (5) TONYS MOM went on an unbelievable run after joining our leading barn but
has leveled off a bit in her last few (facing these tougher mares) - it may be a good spot for her to use her
speed and grab a nice trip, but that (silly) 2-1 ML price does hurt any value she may have provided. (3) UP
TOWN HANOVER has been a very solid performer but probably dies her best work with a bit cheaper - an
easy trip could help her grab a good piece. (4) BETTER WATCH IT is a beast at the $50K level but has had
a tougher time having the same impact against these (much) tougher ones - still could grab a piece with a
better trip. (6) TECHYS ANGEL A has been very consistent lately, but finally gets a bad draw
RACE 2 - (6) P C FREE WHEELING can be a bit inconsistent but she does throw good miles when on her
game - that last "sprint" try was excellent, and could have her on her toes for a good start tonight - should
offer some decent value in a pretty wide open race. (2) TOCCOA FALLS was an absurd 3/5 in last weeks
9/16ths race (he's NOT a "speed" horse) and he made a break on the final turn just trying to get close - he
goes back to the standard distance tonight and is probably the one to beat...but note that he's made breaks in
3 of his last 5 starts before taking a short price. (3) MEMO got beat for 2nd last week (by #1) after working
hard to chase the sizzling :54.1 clip - gets a switch to Brennan for tonight, and should be a close up player
all the way. (1) UP HELLY AA came up 2nd best to runaway winners the last 2 starts, draws best with
Bartlett and is another that has to be given consideration here. (5) BARRY BLACK trotted evenly last week
after a perfect trip, "meh" win over easier the week before - threat on his best, but not sure he's there right
now. (5) VALENTINE EXPRESS was off to a terrible start last week before breaking on the first turn -
prefer to just watch this week.
RACE 3 - Good race! (3) MCMARKLE SPARKLE was looking like she may never get back to top form
but she has finally come around, and may just be a live trip away from beating the Open class - should offer
good value in this well matched affair. (5) JIVE DANCING A saw her 5 race winning streak snapped last
week but she certainly made LIT DE ROSE worked hard to beat her - way too sharp to NOT include on
your tickets tonight, especially since she can race from on or off the pace. (1) DRAMA ACT came up a
little short at the end after cutting the mile in her last 3 starts - she could benefit from the week off, and will
surely benefit from the rail and Brennan - possibility. (6) LIT DE ROSE can NEVER be taken lightly, but
she'll almost certainly be trying to rally from last, and that makes it hard to take her on top this week. (4)
KARMA SEELSTER should be feeling pretty good about herself as she steps back up to the Open off a
pair off sharp victories one level down - would hardly be a surprise, though we are leaning a bit more
towards others tonight. (2) VIOLETS RAINBOW is listed on the bottom, but she's a talented mare from an
amazing barn and could easily be part of the equation (with the right trip).
RACE 4 - (3) ABRUZZO has plenty of talent, and did very well to be a close 2nd last week at a distance
that's surely not his best - he should be pretty tough back at the standard mile tonight, but note that he did
break before the start 3 back (at FIVE CENTS on the dollar!), and he does get a new pilot here. (1) GREY
was a solid 4th (almost 3rd) 2 back then followed that up with a tough trip 3rd in last week's dash - very
solid player from the pole tonight. (2) SMALLTOWNTHROWDOWN was a generous 4-1 winner in last
week's short 9/16ths sprint, but that was a distance that figured to give him an advantage - he's undeniably
sharp, but will have a much tougher time back at a mile tonight, and that 8/5 ML price just seems too low.
(5) JULA MUSCLE PACK was trotting well late for 4th in last week's sprint - assuming he minds his
manners here, he may be able to rally for a decent piece. (4) CANTSTOP YANKEE was outleft last start
then broke heading into the first turn - he has rebounded from miscues in the past, and may not be a bad
one for the bottom of exotics (at a nice price). (6) SEVENSHADESOFGREY made his first miscue in a
while last week trying to stay close early in that sprint - he'll be coming from the back tonight, and we'll see
if he can bounce back, and finish well at the end
RACE 5 - (1) DECOY shipped in off a pair of Pocono victories and was able to tough out a 2nd behind the
runaway, odds-on winner - he gets to call the shots tonight, and may be able to take these wire to wire in his
current sharp form. (5) GOTHIC ROCK has been good for a while, and was quickly re-claimed last week
by his long time connections - he steps up to 25s, but the right trip could make him a dangerous threat (3)
KEYSTONE DASH has been "ok" lately, accumulating minor shares vs. the 30s - we'll see if the drop to
25s can help him be a bigger player. (6) STATEMENT MADE seemed to be making an ambitious move
into 25s for his new connections last week but was able to tough out a very game first over victory - he'll
need some trip luck to replicate that mile from this tougher post, however. (8) HURRIKANEKINGJAMES
had a couple of disappointing tries in the recent "Pop Up" series but bounced back to be right there with the
25s last week - would consider using him (even from Post 8) IF the price is right. (4) MISSILE SEELSTER
has been stuck on getting 4ths since moving up to 25s - he'd probably appreciate a drop back down to 20s,
but remains a possibility for small pieces at this level. (2) PROVOCATIVEPRINCEN is in need of a major
wake up call...or class drop...or both (7) BETTER UP is just 1 for 34 here the past 2 years and draws poorly
- wait for a better spot.
RACE 6 - (1) MACH DORO A raced once after being claimed for $30K in March, went on the shelf, then
returned for half that price last week - there were definite red flags but he turned in a VERY big effort
(despite a horrible trip) and looms the one to beat from the pole tonight - he also figures to be very heavily
backed (3) HEARTLANDBANYSBRO was really roughed up from Post 7 last week but showed enormous
heart in digging in for his 5th straight win- he probably WON'T be the favorite tonight (even with that long
winning streak), so we couldn't blame anybody for wanting to stay on his team. (2) FARMERS TAN was
returning from a long layoff last week and was less than 2 lengths back at the wire despite starting from
Post 8 - figures to have a say tonight with the post relief (and that start under his belt). (6) CAVIART VAL
seems a bit tough to motivate, but does keep trying when prodded on - can grab a piece IF Stratton can keep
his head in the game. (7) SULLIVAN never did any good for his previous barn so it was definitely a
surprise to see them jump right back in to re-claim his last week - he does fit at this $15K level, but the
draw is going to hurt. (5) JK LUCKY CHARMS has been in and out for a while, but even his better efforts
would likely only be enough for a small piece of this. (4) LETTUCERIPRITA A is normally a huge threat
in this class but has been going through a rough patch lately - waiting for some better signs. (8) HOOSIER
SHARK ships in off weak efforts and draws Post 8 - pass for now
RACE 7 - Wide open: (1) NEWSBOY was a very game winner 3 starts back then finished well from an
impossible spot in his next - just give him a pass for last week's 9/16ths race (not really his thing) and look
for a much better effort tonight...especially drawing the pole and getting Bartlett back on board. (3) DOWN
THE PIKE MIKE looked like a solid threat in last week's dash and that 14-1 payoff was really amazing - no
doubt the public will give him more respect this time, and there's no reason he can't be a big player once
more. (4) LINDSEYS PRIDE seemed like he MAY be tailing when claimed on 6/22 but he LOVED last
week's short sprint and simply blew out the field - hard to say if he can be quite that good back at the
standard mile distance, however. (2) STARLIT RAMBO has just been better out of town this year than he
has been at Yonkers - that being said, he can be a player here with an easy enough trip. (5) WILLY WALT
ON's overall for has been "ok", and he gave it a good try in last week's dash - this doesn't feel like the best
spot for him, but he'd hardly be a shock. (6) TACHYON got off to a much better start than expected last
week but blew up in the pocket and lost all chance - barn has just been in a bad funk since early May.
RACE 8 - (1) CAVIART SARGENT has been holding his own vs. a bunch of horses that would all be
odds-on favorites in here - he finally gets some significant class relief, and can be driven accordingly - we'll
see if he's up for it. (2) IMSTAYNALIVE is too camera shy to ever be bet with any real confidence...but he
IS good right now, and this may be a spot where he can threaten with the right trip. (3) CODY HANOVER
went from huge odds every week to 6/5 after moving to this top outfit on 6/19 - he came up 2nd best to the
classy SAVE ME A DANCE, then did get the job done in his next, though all-out as the prohibitive 1/10
favorite - maybe just a tad vulnerable moving up in class tonight? (6) JIMMY CONNOR B could be the "x
factor" tonight - his PA lines suggest he'll be a good fit here, but he ships in off a sick scratch and a 10th
place finish out of town - check the tote board? (5) MULLINAX is having a solid season and used a perfect
trip to pick up a 2nd last week - one to include underneath. (4) PURPLE POET hasn't been able to get it
done at the bottom level and now moves up 2 classes - prefer others in here. (7) PEDRO HANOVER really
feels like he's gone the wrong way after being so good for months.
RACE 9 - (3) IN THE SPOTLIGHT N has been good ever since arriving from Hoosier in May, and that
includes an excellent 2nd to the streaking JIVE DANCING N here on 6/2 - seems to have landed in an
excellent spot returning tonight from PA. (1) JODY drops, moves inside, and figures to have a very big say
here - she's also just 1 for 32 locally over the past 2 seasons, so don't take too short a price if using her on
top (though it's also hard to see her NOT landing somewhere on the ticket)! (4) SILK CLOUD A is a bit of
an enigma - at times she hints at serious ability, but then also disappoints as well - if you think she'll bring
her "A Game" tonight, by all means include her on your tickets. (8) MISS DOTTIE MAE is listed at 20-1
ML but she's a proven player at this level, and has been 1st or 2nd in 9 of her 14 local starts this year - she
also has a pilot NOT afraid of leaving from pretty much any spot...bomb threat? (2) SMOOTH DEBATE N
may be in a little steep here but the good draw at least puts her in play for a minor piece. (7) NATASHA
was very good here in 2021 - she only raced once (overall) in 2022, but has been competing regularly (out
of town) in '23, albeit vs. a bit easier - maybe 3rd/4th? (5) LADY NEWTON was totally empty in her YR
debut (for new connections) but was racing off a layoff, and also vs. better - not sure she's ready for her
best, but maybe the tote board can offer some guidance? (6) BELLADONNA GIRL A is moving up in
class from her last when a DROP is what she really needs.
RACE 10 - (2) TWENTY had a strong 3YO season, banking $159K - she seems to be getting her 4YO
season in gear at The Meadows lately, and she'll be getting big barn and driver changes for her YR debut -
might be worth a stab, at what figures to be a decent price. (3) HUNTRESS endured an absolutely brutal
trip last week and it was the first time in her YR career that she wasn't 1st or 2nd - this is a much better spot
and she could easily rebound with one of her more typical efforts. (4) LUCKY ARTIST A still isn't close to
her "best" form, but at least she's at a level right now where she can be a player every week - playable, as
long as she's not overbet. (7) ROCKN PHILLY tends to win less often at YR than she probably should, but
she can actually beat better than these when in the right mood - decent value horse to at least consider. (5)
MISS CHANTILLY N is a perfect 3 for 3 since arriving here but will face a much tougher test this week -
not sure if she's up for it, and would want a pretty decent price to try her on top. (1) TUGGINGONCREDIT
showed a little better life in her last couple and draws the pole tonight - prefer a few others, but could see
her taking home a small slice. (6) BETTERB CHEVRON N was racing well as she climbed the classes
from April to June, but she finished well back in her last at Plainridge, and has been idle for 3 weeks - the
poor draw won't help her cause. (8) GINGER TREE LIZ will look a lot better in NW10000 next week -
hopefully with a much better post
RACE 11 - (4) SEAFARER seeks his 3rd in a row at this $20K level and there's a pretty good chance he'll
get it - if you're looking for a chink in his armor, he does get a little weak at the very end of his miles
sometimes...but that hasn't cost him any way in his last pair. (3) OURRHYTHMNBLUES N was 3rd
behind the top choice 2 back then 2nd best last week - he's probably looking at a similar result for tonight.
(7) MARINER SEELSTER was amazing here at ages 12 and 13 but was 6-0-0-1 to start of his 14YO
campaign this year - he looked like a tired horse at that point, but he's won 6 of 13 out of town since then,
and returns to YR off a win over much cheaper at PcD - he'll likely be blasting despite the poor draw and if
you're looking for somebody to upset the top two, it would probably be him. (2) PICARD A would really
rather be in for $15K but the good draw gives him a chance for a piece against these too. (8) SHANWAY N
should appreciate the drop from 25s to 20s...but the terrible draw may offset that benefit - willing to throw
in for 3rd/4th. (5) ZIGGY SKY has been racing just "ok", and is another that may need to be in a bit easier
in order to be a more serious threat. (1) MAJESTIC KIWI N has been dull lately for a barn that's really
struggling - not sure how much the rail can help his chances right now. (6) SWAGASAURUSREX figures
to end up too far back to make any real noise at the end.