Tuesday Empire Report

apatchworkdesign • March 21, 2023

The Empire Report - Tuesday, March 21, 2023 - Race Analysis

RACE 1 - (2) SEZANA N's last two starts in this class resulted in a win, and a good 2nd behind the razor

sharp MILLWOOD BONNIE N - she was facing MUCH better in her last pair, and the drop back to 50s

should be just what the doctor ordered. (4) LINE EM UP is in a good way right now with 2 wins, a 2nd and

a 3rd from her last 4 starts - she's shown she can race from on or off the pace, and looms a legitimate threat

in here. (7) BETTER WATCH IT hasn't found the winner's circle as often as she'd like but she races well

every week, even from tough spots - she'll be a nice price from Post 7, and does have a chance to show up

late for a piece. (1) LAURIE LEE is probably a bit below the top ones but she races well with an easy trip

and should get one from this spot - chance to land somewhere on the ticket. (6) CHUPPAH ON picked up a

win and a 2nd the 2X she drew well recently but she just doesn't seem as sharp as she's been in the past -

Post 6 may hurt her chances tonight. (3) SOUTHWIND JAVA just never really clicked for her current

connections, and her time at PcD doesn't seem much better - we'll see if the move to claimers helps. (5)

LADY DELA RENTA A has missed a month after a dismal effort and subsequent sick scratch.


RACE 2 - (4) KINGSVILLE was a sharp first over winner 2 back then equally sharp wiring the field last

week - steps up another notch, but seems more than sharp enough to pull it off. (1) SHINE A LIGHT was

going some BIG miles here after joining last year's leading barn - missed some time, bounced around other

barns but now has found his better from again after joining THIS year's leading barn - willing to ignore last

week's effort in NJ and consider him the main danger from the pole. (5) MY ULTIMATE STAR A took a

while to finally win a race at Yonkers but now he's won TWO in a row - seems next in line should the top

pair falter. (2) DEETZY has been in the hunt in most of his recent starts and should be able to be part of the

equation once again - use underneath. (3) BONDI SHAKE N added lasix last week and did finish well after

finally shaking free into the stretch - another with a chance at a piece of this. (6) VESPA N has struggled

since moving up to this level - outside draw isn't going to help his cause. (7) CANTSTOPLYING has been

away since October and is clearly the outsider...both literally and figuratively.


RACE 3 - (3) MAGICAL MISTRESS was making her first start in over 4 months on 3/3 and finished with

good interest from the back of the pack - drops in for a tag tonight, and lands in what is by far the easier of

the two divisions....unless she blew a tire since that last start, she should be a tough customer tonight. (1)

HEY HEY DBAY has been racing well for weeks, and comes off a pair of 3rds behind the odds-on SHEC

ANDANCE N - draws best in a soft field, and becomes the one to beat if the top choice doesn't bring her

best. (5) PAIGES GIRL rarely wins, but usually puts in a solid effort - should grab her usual share tonight,

and maybe even contend for the top prize if the right trip comes her way. (7) ALWAYS B MIMI does her

best work with cheaper but this MAY be a spot where Brennan can take a shot to leave with her...and that

would give her a chance to land on the ticket....at a good price. (2) PRAY THE ROSARY has gone some

good miles here over the years but has also thrown far more clunkers - hard to say she fits here of those

recent Monti efforts. (4) ACEFOURTYFOUR ALEX has been in a funk for quite a while and really could

use a wake up call. (6) HEAVENISSOFARAWAY was scr. sick on 1/27 and that qualifier really doesn't

inspire confidence for her return mile tonight (but at least peek at the tote board for clues).


RACE 4 - (1) TAKE A GAMBLE was terrific from the time he arrived from Canada last fall, quickly

climbing the local class - he's been racing at Stga. recently, almost exclusively from terrible posts while still

showing several big efforts....guessing he'll be ready for his best returning to YR tonight. (4) BLANK STA

RE finished well from an impossible spot last week to be a close up 4th - he lands a much better spot here,

and is definitely at a level right in his wheelhouse- should be a big player. (4) FEELIN WESTERN changed

barns to start the new year, had some initial success but now moves back to his previous trainer after a few

lesser efforts - could perk right up with the class drop. (7) JAHAN HANOVER went on a tear recently that

carried him right up to the Open level - feels like he's been tailing in his last couple, but that doesn't mean

Gingras won't send him out of there tonight - consider if the price is right. (5) MOTIVE HANOVER has

been a very solid performer but may prefer to be in a bit easier - still a very possible candidate for a piece.

(2) NOWHERE CREEK A was a sharp 2nd at a big price last week vs. a bit easier - draws inside again, but

may be pushing it a bit up at this higher level. (6) TIME TO DANCE was formless when he shipped in

from PA in late January - rattled off 4 sharp tries before a dud on 5/7, followed by an "ok" 3rd last week -

he's in a tough spot here even if he brings his best.


RACE 5 - (5) LOORRIM LAKE A was very well backed from Post 8 last week but got sideways before

the start and made a break - lands a better post here (while also dropping in class) and he's Bartlett's choice

once again - probably worth another try. (6) ALEX TYE went a big mile last week but came up 2nd best to

the very sharp winner - he's been (sneaky) sharp for weeks, and should be a good value horse to include in

exotics. (1) B LIKE CRUISER appeared to get too hot in recent starts and has been his own worst enemy -

he's up in class tonight, but Holland may just let him roll and see what happens - wouldn't be shocked if he

came up with a big effort. (2) HEEZ OURPERSEUS N took some $$ for his 2nd U.S. start and was an "ok"

4th - he's eligible to keep improving, and he may be able to be a player tonight. (7) SHADOW CAT was

"good" not "great" when returning to YR last week (finished 3rd) - he's very capable at this level, but the

poor draw may hamper his chances a bit tonight. (4) GAMBLINGTERROR can be a little camera shy at

times but he's also very good at grabbing pieces at good prices - never a bad one to include underneath. (3)

LOUIE THE HORSE N raced well here several times last year but he took 3 months off and went off at

41-1 in his return try in NJ last week - not sure he's up for these right now. (8) ROCKATHON was sitting

2nd over when he made a costly miscue on the final turn last week - hard to see him getting involved

tonight.


RACE 6 - (5) LOUS SWEETREVENGE finished not far off Open horses 2 and 3 back then was 3rd best

behind a couple of very sharp ones last week (on a surface he may not have liked) - really should be able to

score off the drop tonight, whether on the lead or from off the pace (if necessary) (1) BOILING OAR threw

a dud last week but was racing very well just prior to that - drops right back in the box, draws the rail with

Yannick and he may be able to bounce right back with a more typically sharp try. (4) WALKINSHAW N

has been racing well in most of his starts though his only recent win did come down in NW10000 - remains

a good one to use in exotics. (2) CAN BE PERFECT is forced to move up off a no-factor loss but he gets

major post relief, and has held his own against these types in the past - willing to include underneath. (3)

STRAIGHT UP COOL generally does his best work with cheaper so it was a surprise to see him race so

well in NW15000 two back - got bothered on the final turn last week (gets a pass!), and may be able to add

some value to the exotics tonight. (7) THE REAL ONE is back on the upswing, but faces a very difficult

task trying to rally from last here. (6) ON THE CARDS raced much better than expected here 3 back but

was unable to build off that - leaning towards others tonight.


RACE 7 - (3) LARJON LEAH almost upset SHECANDANCE N from Post 8 two back, then was a close

2nd behind a sharp LINE EM UP in her last- maybe tonight she can turn the tables and get her picture taken

(2) SHECANDANCE N is now 6-4-1-0 on the season and that includes odds-on victories at this level the

past 2 weeks - she's looked vulnerable both times, however, so maybe this is the week that she's not quite

able to deliver? (7) CORAL BELLA isn't quite on her "best" game right now, but she's good enough to

have won her last 2 starts (after grabbing :59 opening halves each time) - it's POSSIBLE she can make it 3

straight, but she seems more likely to end up with a bit smaller award this time. (1) SARA JANE hasn't

been at her best for a few starts, but draws best and hails from a very sharp barn - maybe this can be a wake

up spot for her? (4) FLIP THE SCRIPT was "ok" in her last pair, finishing a pretty close 5th each time -

may be able to do a bit better if the trip falls her way. (8) STELLENBOSCH has been pretty decent lately,

including a 2nd to #2 last start - she'll have a tough task overcoming the draw tonight, but still a decent

bomb for 3rd/4th. (6) PURE COTTON was way overbet off some poor form last week and just gave way

off turn three - hard to back right now. (5) SHES A SASSY BEACH ships in riding a 2 race winning streak

- but vs. much softer....she'll need to prove she can hold her own with these much tougher mares.


RACE 8 - Very tough race! (4) LEVINE endured a terrible 2022 season but he's been a much better horse

in '23 (5-2-1-1), and that includes last week's sharp "pace at both ends" victory one level down - catches a

mixed bag of rivals tonight, and may be sharp enough to handle this bunch too. (2) OUR CORELLI N has

been VERY sharp lately, and is another that seems capable of handling tonight's class bump - he loses

Kakaley to #1, so let's hope that Stratton drives him with more confidence than he has in the past! (3) BAR

BADOS immediately regressed after being claimed on 2/13 but did race a little better last week - if he can

find his "A Game" tonight, he can do a lot of damage in here. (7) QUALITY BUD had no prayer from the

back (on a sloppy track) last week but his overall recent form has been sharp, and he did win with Gingras

3 starts back - not a bad bomb if you think he can find a way into the mix. (6) MARLBANK ROAD has

been on his game recently, and comes into tonight with a trip of 2nd place finishes - he's another "value

horse" that can make some noise if he can somehow find himself a live trip. (5) INDICTABLE HANOVER

loved outrunning NW5000 and NW7500 fields but he wasn't nearly as sharp going first over in NW10000

last week, and now DOUBLE jumps off that mile - others seem like more attractive plays here. (1) ROCK

APLEO was going string when he changed barns on 12/17....and came up with 3 duds after that - was

freshened up but that return qualifier looks less than stellar, even if his owner was on board - maybe check

the tote board for some help?


RACE 9 - (4) BOUNTY HUNTER raced well enough at 3 to make it to the NYSS Final - was a winner

here on 12/6 (NW4) when favored from Post 8, and has been sharp at PcD recently after returning from a

freshening - one of a few sharp ones with a legitimate chance in here. (3) HEART OF DIXIE held well for

3rd after being stuck with a tough trip last week and that was on the heels of his sharp victory the week

before - remains a real threat with any live trip. (6) GREG THE LEG has taken two of his last 3, finishing

2nd (after being roughed up) in the other - anything his barn sends out deserves a ton of respect, but

drawing outside a couple of main foes MAY hurt him just a bit. (8) LOUS BEACH added Lasix on 2/21

and immediately reversed form, winning his next 2 starts - got brutally parked in his next, however, and

took all the way back last week to avoid a similar fate...not impossible, but would have REALLY liked his

chances a lot more with a good draw! (1) BETTOR ROLL ON A has been no factor with these for several

weeks but does draw the pole, and a conservative drive may help him land a small piece. (5) RB found a

soft group last week and was able to just outrun them - he'll need to up his game to threaten these, however.

(7) BUCHANNON HANOVER has only been able to grab pieces at this NW6 level and tonight's terrible

draw may make that a bit tougher. (2) TOPVILLE SOMROCKET shows a weak looking qualifier for his

new connections (after more than 3 months off).


RACE 10 - Tough race! (8) SON OF A TIGER N added Lasix 2 back but was in a no-chance spot (vs.

better), then landed on a very tough trip last week (but still raced well) - will need lots of luck to win from

out here, but still worth a look at the right price. (4) HYPNOTICDREAM flashed unexpected speed last

week and turned in a good effort for 3rd - his barn has been better lately, so perhaps he can build off that

and be an even bigger player tonight? (5) STRETCH THE LINE seemed content just to pace a clean mile at

the back last week but did catch the eye with some good pace finishing - if his connections can work out

some of the bugs, he might light up the tote board one of these nights. (1) MAXIMUS RED A seems a bit

risky after missing 3 weeks (sick scr.) but he was the odds-on choice vs. better just 3 starts down, and he

COULD be a threat here if 100% - check the board? (2) CAPTAINS PLACE hit board in his last pair,

draws inside and seems very playable underneath. (3) ONE OFF DELIGHT A raced a bit better 2 back then

seemed to build off that as he rallied for 2nd at 36-1 last week (though helped when the race fell apart) -

one of many with a chance at a piece. (6) SO MANY ROADS finished well for 3rd last start and a few barn

mates are coming around too - tough spot, but maybe 3rd/4th? (7) FOX VALLEY REN improved a bit off

the drop last week but still seems unlikely to threaten from out here.


RACE 11 - (2) WE SHALL SEA was no threat in a pair of local starts last Fall but he acted like he might

be better than he showed - was freshened up and that qualifier doesn't look all that bad...maybe he can

deliver at a nice price in the finale? (6) AUSSIE HANOVER blasted from Post 8 last week, grabbed a two

hole trip and was able to battle back for the place spot after the winner drew off - very logical threat in here.

(7) AMERICAN FRONTIER was 1 for 24 when he shipped in on 12/20 but delivered the blowout win for

our top barn, then raced well a few times after that - no clue what happened last week (looked home free on

the final turn then stopped like he was shot!), but he could easily rebound to be a big threat here. (3) BEST

BETTOR looked a little better for a couple of starts - added Lasix last week, but lost all chance with an

early miscue - decent bomb for a small slice. (1) COALFORD BYTHESEA cut the mile last week and had

no excuse to get beat - draws the pole again, and is one of several for a chance at a minor share. (4) HURRI

KANE CHUCK showed promise at 2, but only made 5 starts at 3 - started off his 4YO season very well,

but does seem to have leveled off in his last couple - we'll see if he can bounce back with a better one

tonight. (5) VARNEY sat the pocket and nipped #1 two back, then was a no threat 4th last week - minor

share only. (8) AMBITIOUSBEACHBOY is better than several of these but the draw figures to really hurt

his chances.

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