Thursday Empire Report

soaofny • December 12, 2024

The Empire Report – Thursday, December 12, 2024 – Race Analysis

RACE 1 – (2) UNFORGETTABLE is really hitting on all cylinders right now, and brings a 3 race winning streak

into this - won’t be offering much value but she’s clearly the one to knock off in tonight’s opener. (5) BLUEBIRD

BISHOP was really sharp before going on the shelf after his start on 6/27 – he returned after 4+ months off and has

looked very good, other than that uncharacteristic miscue on 11/21 – could be the main danger. (4) FULL SCALE

has been on a long form spree since changing barns this summer, and made a big recovery after being offstride

before the start last week – no reason he can’t have a say in here. (6) PASSIONATE PROMISE is listed at 20-1 ML

but he’s 5 for 16 here this year, and 12 for 31 overall...couldn’t blame anybody looking to use him at a big price. (7)

MAHONE SEELSTER is usually sure footed so it was a surprise to see him make a break last week – he was

claimed from that start, and his new connections get no luck with the draw – small piece? (1) BULLY BOY HILL

threw an unexpected clunker last week but he drops right back in the box – no idea what to expect tonight. (3) NO

TURNING BACK is pretty inconsistent, but may need to be in a bit easier even on her best effort.


RACE 2 – (7) FLIP MY CHIP missed by a nose on 10/17 then rattled off three straight wins after that – weakened a

bit after a first over try last week, but that was vs. a field much better than this one – chance to get it done, even from

out here. (3) LYONS PRIDE was hurt badly by outside draws in his last 3 starts but the move inside should help his

chances significantly tonight – look for a much more involved effort this week. (4) I AINT NO MACK got scary

sharp during his recent 4 race winning streak but he was just “ok” 2 back (when 4th), then no factor at last week,

after being claimed – he MAY rebound here, but it would be hard to take a short price HOPING that’s the case. (5)

KINGSTON PANIC picked up an even 4th helped by a quick start last week – another good getaway could result in

another small piece. (1) HES SPECIAL was very good back in Sept/Oct but has fallen on hard times recently – we’ll

see if the rail draw can help him turn things around a bit. (2) HIGH ON ROCKNROLL is 1 for 53 locally over the

past 2 years – minor spoils only. (6) TWIGGS PUB feels like he’s regressed in his last pair – tough draw hurts.


RACE 3 – (4) C BET HANOVER got pretty good not too long ago and was holding his own vs. much better than

these – he flashed big speed at Chester last week (before tiring) and he may be able to pull off the mild upset here

with the right trip. (3) SOUTHBEACH HANOVER hasn’t been on his best game in some time but last week’s drop

to this bottom level produced a no-threat 2nd behind stickout FAMILY RECIPE – he’s the one to beat for sure, but

there won’t be much value to be had. (2) RICARDOSHILYSHALLY finished alertly from a bad spot last week and

he’s raced “ok” in all 4 of his local tries – definitely a candidate for the exotics. (1) BIG SIR is a pretty unreliable

sort and he was overdriven the last time he paired up with A Nap – a more conservative steer could help him to grab

a share. (5) THRASHER has been struggling for a long time, and so far the class drops haven’t helped – he’ll wake

up one of these nights, but hard to make the case it’ll be tonight. (6) AUSSIE HANOVER was an empty, well beaten

3rd last week from the pole...now lands outside.


RACE 4 – (2) BROOKVIEW DARIUS raced for a new barn last week but maintained the same good form he had

been showing for his previous connections – moves back inside (after a pair of 8 holes) and that could make him a

very dangerous player tonight. (4) BEERTHIRTY K did a nice job sustaining his wide rally to pick up 4th last week,

after coming up 2nd best to a runaway winner the start before – gets a better draw, and a live trip puts him right into

the mix. (7) WILLY WALTON has been on a very long form spree, but he got roughed up too hard in the opening

quarter last week and paid for it late – with speed to his inside once more, he may end up with a less than stellar trip

tonight...but still worth considering if the price is good enough. (6) STEALING is capable of some big rallies, but

lost all chance after a miscue before 3/4s in his last – he’ll need plenty of trip luck from this spot, but a hot pace

would at least give him a chance. (1) CANTKEEPMIASECRET looked like she may be turning things around with

that sharp Pocono win 2 back but she got involved a bit early on last week and had little left at the end (after a bit of

a shuffle) – mixed feelings. (3) ICE BREAKER K just doesn’t feel like he’s on his game right now. (5) LOS BALLY

KEELAMIGO is another that was used too hard last week and didn’t live to tell about it – wouldn’t be shocked if he

bounced back with a better effort, but still leaning elsewhere.


RACE 5 – (2) LYONS SURFING was claimed on 9/26 from his eye-popping, 1:51.1 8 hole victory but never could

match that form for his new connections, albeit taking on much tougher competition – he moves to a new barn for

tonight, and finally drops back down to the level of that big win...we’ll see if he perks back up. (1) MONACO HAN

OVER gave it an aggressive try last week (with the switch to Gingras) and came up 2nd best to a very sharp LAZ –

no reason he should have a big say tonight from the pole. (3) SNOUZE U LOUZE got parked the mile last week by

the classy GINGER TREE PETE and never really gave up, not far back in 5th after finally weakening a bit in the

lane – he’s a good fit at this level, and should be able to make his presence felt. (6) WOLFTRAX was handled

aggressively arriving from KY and was a solid 3rd, despite missing a month - he could be even tighter now, and that

would make him a player (even with the bad draw). (4) MANHATTAN ARTIST was a decent 4th dropping to this

class 2 back then an easy front end winner last week – yet another legitimate player in this very competitive field.

(8) PORTERS MAN got used VERY hard last week and lived to tell about it – would have listed him higher up if

not for the horrible draw. (5) HOUND ON THE BEACH picked up a 2nd two back but has otherwise struggled here

at YR. (7) IRRESISTIBLE was a dull 2nd two back, then no good at all last week – could be regressing.


RACE 6 – (7) REAL WILLEY is having an overall strong season but did start to tail significantly recently – he

hinted at some life 2 back then built off that last week, cutting the mile and losing only to the tripsitting favorite –

maybe this is a field he can handle right now. (1) MULLINAX is a tough call – he missed an entire year, but his first

few starts suggested he was rounding into solid form...he did quickly regress in his last pair, however, so it’s tough

to predict what we’ll get from him tonight. (5) HICKFROMFRENCHLICK is also a tough call, as he’s another that

seems to have really gone south recently (also a few starts after returning from a layoff) – hard to endorse at that 5/2

ML price. (4) EMINEM HANOVER would normally get a long look in a spot like this but he struggled in his last,

and his barn’s current cold spell has been well documented. (2) BULLVILLE FRANK feels cheap, but at least he

gets a good draw in a questionable field – small piece? (8) CAPTAIN BATBOY is having a season he’d like to

forget, and drawing Post 8 isn’t likely to help him turn things around. (3) COTTON ON N has been away since

March and his 2 qualifiers suggest he may need a start or two. (6) CAHOOTS is definitely struggling at the moment.


RACE 7 – Interesting Invitational Trot: (3) STORMONT DIVIDE went a vicious mile 2 back (off the claim),

crushing the field in a very hot mile – he was on the lead quickly last week but seemed to just exit the course off the

first turn, recovering at the back of the pack, and then finishing full of trot right behind the top ones – may be worth

a shot in this wide open field. (1) CHAKE raced very well in all 3 local starts this year then continued to thrive in PA

in her last 4 outings – she gets assigned the pole for her Hilltop return, pairs back up with a red hot Bartlett (10 wins

on Tues/Wed night), and may be able to have a big say with these too. (6) PAPPARDELLE appreciated the drop

from the tougher MGM Series last week and was a solid first over winner – deserves plenty of respect, but may be at

least a bit vulnerable from this tougher post. (5) HERODOTUS was having a tough season before turning things

around the last couple of months, and getting his earnings over the 6 figure mark – he had success here when sharp

last year, and we’ll see if he can be a big player returning to Yonkers tonight. (2) TORRONE is holding form even at

this top level, trotting strong in the lane for 3rd last week after finding a seam – chance for another piece with another

good trip. (4) KEG STAND tried to cut it from Post 8 last week but tired in the lane after getting worn down by #6 –

he’s 5 for 15 here this year, and can’t be counted out too quickly off that one mile. (7) BIG BOX HANOVER

doesn’t seem to race as well locally as he does out of town – Post 7 isn’t going to help his cause.


RACE 8 – (4) IWONT BACKDOWN AS was sent off favored in the Invitational in his local debut but couldn’t

keep it going on the lead after getting outblitzed by a scary sharp winner to 3/4s – he was handled conservatively in

his last, and did finish full off trot for a close 4th - gets some class relief here, and that could make him very tough.

(1) VINNY DE VIE has an excellent history with Holland, who is not afraid to handle him aggressively – could be a

big part of this. (2) UNEVERGONNAGETHIS remains a bit unpredictable from start to start but an easy trip from

this spot could see him take home a nice chunk. (5) ALL STAR SWAN is now delivering big miles week after week,

and any decent trip could put her right in the hunt once more. (6) YANKS DUGOUT finished ok from an impossible

spot last week, but may find himself in another difficult spot tonight. (3) I GET IT brings a 2 race winning streak

into this thanks to a pair of pocket trips – probably won’t land that same perfect journey tonight...and may not get

the same result. (7) P L NOTSONICE has enjoyed an outstanding season...but may not appreciate this spot tonight.


RACE 9 – (3) LAZ has 3 starts since dropping to this level and they’ve produced a pair of very easy victories, and

an impossible parked-the-mile trip from the 8 hole (when still 5th!) – clearly the one to knock off tonight. (2) THAT

DOG WILL HUNT comes into this having hit board in 5 straight, as part of a strong 28-5-7-5 local season – strong

candidate to end up somewhere on the ticket. (5) SEEYALATERBYE was ignored in the wagering for his first local

try last week, but raced ok for 3rd – maybe he can grab another small share tonight? (4) VALENTINO OF LEDA

came up 2nd after cutting the mile in his only Yonkers start – certainly worth including underneath at that 15-1 ML

price. (6) CHIP IN BLUE has missed 3 weeks but still would have a chance to rally for a minor share if close to

100%. (8) CLEVELAND B MIKI is often good for a decent finish but may just be coming from too far back tonight

to have much say. (1) SHUFFLE UP HANOVER moves to a new barn and draws the pole...but just seems too far

off form at the moment. (7) VANDALISM has just looked completely disinterested in his last few starts.


RACE 10 – (8) FAMILY RECIPE hit a rough patch in October but has come back around, highlighted by last

week’s effortless front end blowout – faces better now (and from Post 8), but worth sticking with (as long as the

price is fair). (6) MASONS DELIGHT N can be a bit unreliable from start to start but he won a couple not too long

ago, and was recently 2nd and 3rd – good value horse to consider. (7) CHANTEE is “good enough” to have a chance

here, but he also figures to be coming from way out of it – good one for longshot fans. (1) SHADOW CAT got beat

on the front end with no excuses 2 back, then was just an “ok” 4th last week – can’t be counted out by any means, but

he also isn’t worth that 9/5 ML price. (2) FIZZING N usually doesn’t threaten for the top slot, but he does grab his

share of pieces – ok to use underneath. (3) LEVINE is now 0 for 23 on the year – still, another with a chance for a

piece (with the right trip). (5) BRAEVIEW BONDI A probably raced better last week than his line might suggest,

but he’s way too camera shy (at least at Yonkers) to consider on top. (4) MOVIN ON UP is off form, for a cold barn.

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