Tuesday Empire Report

soaofny • November 23, 2021

The Empire Report - Tuesday, November 23, 2021 - Race Analysis

RACE 1 - (7) MILITARY MASTER A was hammered down to 1/2 last week off the barn change that the public clearly viewed as significant - he no doubt created a loud gasp when he went offstride at the start but he somehow was able to go from LAST at the half to a clear lead at 3/4s, pacing an insane quarter in :26 and change to do that -- ended up crushing his rivals by more than 5 lengths, and would be pretty hard to go against tonight. (1) FAST ON THE DRAW has taken 3 in a row, draws the pole, and would normally look like an odds-on stickout in here....but he may need something to go wrong for the top choice if he hopes to extend his streak to 4! (2) RUTHLESS DUDE put in a solid try across the river for his new connections, and has raced well here any number of times (when sharp) - solid chance to pick up a piece of this. (4) RECORD MACHINE appreciated the big drop to the bottom level 2 back and was able to pick up a win - was an ok 3rd last week, but now moves to a new barn...chance for a small piece. (3) CHACHING HANO VER is 1 for 43 over the last 2 years - best hope is to save ground, and hope for a minor share. (6) ARI ALLSTAR has a couple of ok recent tries, but from better posts - may struggle tonight with the move outside. (8) MOXLEY perked up in Sept. with a few good efforts but seems to be tailing...and Post 8 won't make things any easier for home. (5) BIG SWEEP OSBORNE may need easier to be a player.


RACE 2 - (8) RHODENA ROAD is now 3 for 3 since arriving at Yonkers and just looks better every start - while it's never easy to win from Post 8, the only thing that can really hurt his chances of making it 4 in a row is if his new pilot fails to put him in play in a timely manner - hard to go against even from out here. (2) NORTHERN NETWORK was well backed last week against the top choice but was no match at all from the top of the lane and weakened to 4th - he's capable of better, and we'll look for him to bounce back tonight. (4) BRAZEN BRAZILIAN has a couple of recent excuses but also has a bunch of efforts good enough to land him a piece of this - maybe can add some value to the exotics? (3) PERFECTBOY HANOV ER couldn't get involved from the back of the pack in his local debut but was handled aggressively from the pole last week, cutting the mile then holding on to 2nd after the standout winner blew by him - very logical threat to be part of the equation again tonight. (1) BARRYWHITE HANOVER struggled with his gait 2 back (off a bad date) then was stuck in the back last week - might be ready for a wake up mile tonight. (5) ILLBEWATCHINGU is just 12-1-1-0 on the year but can offer a decent late rally at times - ok for 3rd/4th. (6) UNCONTROLLABLE has been better in his last couple, just missing 2 back while racing ok for 3rd in his last - the only real knock is the draw, but that may hurt his chances tonight. (7) HEARTLANDBANYS BRO wasn't bad in his local debut but that was from the pole - moves out to Post 7, and he may find himself unable to get in play from out here.


RACE 3 - (1) SETH HANOVER was a very solid PA fair horse at 2 and 3....moved to one of the leading barns in the nation before his last start and went a HUGE effort, parked every step of the way and only losing by a nose - should be a very short priced winner tonight. (2) PINEBUSH LIFESAVER tired in the stretch last week after being driven very aggressively but was racing better with more conservative trips prior to that - may be able to just tow along for 2nd all the way. (3) GOTAFOOLISHDESIRE paced home steadily for 5th in his local debut - draws well, and we'll see if he can build off that mile. (7) MIDNIGHT REBEL was sent off at 4/5 for his local debut, was the one who parked the top choice last week but when it came to crunch time, he couldn't finish the job, finishing 3rd and even losing to the horse he parked - he's now just 1 for 34 (16X 2nd and 3rd), and can only be considered for the bottom of exotics. (5) LINCOLN BOULEVARD shows some decent half mile track from in Canada, moves to a strong barn and may be able to pick up a decent piece in his YR debut. (4) MARC IN THE BOX took no $$ for either local start and wasn't a factor either time - prefer others. (8) KEYSTONE CATALYST qualified ok for his new barn but lands Post 8 for his YR debut - keep an eye for future consideration. (6) EYE MISS GARY wasn't close last week and does seem overmatched.


RACE 4 - (3) WALTER MITTY shows a bunch of recent PcD lines that would give him a big chance to beat these - his last start here (off the claim) looks terrible on paper but he drew Post 8, and his connections MAY have been anticipating tonight's class drop - willing to gamble that a much better version show up tonight. (1) SOMEBEACH BARON also has recent PA lines that would make him very tough against these, and is also dropping a ton for tonight's race - should be the main danger. (8) ITSMYCHECK GB shipped in from Nfd. to one of our sharpest outfits and jogged in his local debut - steps up AND draws Post 8 tonight, but still very playable in exotics at that 20-1 ML price. (2) DRACARYS Z was no factor in either local try since shipping in from The Meadows but he's looking at a decent trip from this spot, and may be able to improve enough to grab a piece. (5) ROLLING WITH SAM is just 3 for 53 over the past 2 years, and 1 for 27 locally - hard to consider him on top at a short price (but ok for underneath). (4) VERGEOFG REATNESS N seems to try hard, but hasn't looked great on some of the turns - minor share only. (6) TACT TATE N is shipping over with less than stellar current form - wait for better signs before using. (7) ROLL WITH JR will need his new barn to produce a massive form reversal to be a player tonight.


RACE 5 - (6) SCHWARTZ BROS PAT caught a very tough pair (and a very fast mile) for his YR debut but still was able to pick up 3rd - should find this crew a bit easier, and he'll have a chance here to pick up his 8th win of the season. (4) CONTROL ME ONCE made his Hilltop debut off a bad date and clearly had some issue that night - qualified back well at Chester, so it would seem the problem wasn't serious....legit player here. (5) COLONEL BAYAMA debuted for his new connections off 24 days but was still a very nice 2nd to a winner that's currently on a good roll - could be even sharper tonight, and that would put him right in the thick of this. (2) ARRHYTHMIC SURGE was "sneaky good" in both local tries, finishing well both times - good value horse to include underneath in exotics. (1) KAUAI KING has raced ok here a couple of times, and should benefit from the post relief - chance to take home a small piece. (3) BALI BEACH responded to his new barn last week and was an easy front end winner in his YR debut - this field is MUCH tougher, so we'll see if he can hold his own with them too. (7) GAMBLING ADDICTION has similar lines to barnmate LINCOLN BOULEVARD (3rd Race) - perhaps see how THAT one does, and rate this guy accordingly? (8) DANCING JOE seems a bit below these...even from an inside post.


RACE 6 - (5) BEST IN SHOW hasn't been nearly as successful at 4 and 5 as he was as a youngster, but his current Canadian form is pretty solid and should make him a very good fit with these - we'll give him a shot as he returns to a familiar trainer. (3) CODY HANOVER has done good work for the Dynamic Duo, 6-1-2-3 locally since joining their barn - could be the one to beat if the top choice fails to deliver. (1) LEVINE may not be on his best game right now but he should be able to work out an easy enough trip to take home a decent chunk of this. (2) EDDARD HANOVER was an ok 4th in his first start off the claim - at 20-1 ML, more than willing to include him for 3rd/4th. (4) NOCTURNAL BLUE CHIP was able to dig in through the stretch to prevail over lesser in his YR return, though he looked pretty vulnerable as they turned for home - makes a double class jump tonight, and that may leave him looking at a smaller share. (7) ROCKA THON actually fits NW5000 but apparently wasn't allowed to take that drop - chance he could grab a piece of this IF he finds a way into the hunt. (8) HEAVENS GAIT incredibly draws his 5th straight 8 hole...and may have to wait (yet again) for a better spot. (6) MACINTOSH N probably needs a much better post to be a threat against the better ones in here.


RACE 7 - (5) DELITFULCATHERIN N added Lasix last week and went a BIG mile, overcoming a very tough trip to be right there 3rd on the wire - Holland is back on board, and can help her make amends with a better journey tonight. (1) MILLWOOD BONNIE N won the initial division of this (new at the time) class back on 10/12, but has only picked up pieces since then - perhaps the move inside will result in a trip that can make her a contender for the top spot again? (7) ROCKN PHILLY shipped in sharp from Philly but came up 2nd best to a feelin' good Feelin Red Hot last week - would likely have been the top choice if not for the draw, but a lot can go wrong from Post 7!(3) CLASSY CHAPEL N beat these two back with a pocket trip - she'll be a decent price tonight if you think she can land on a golden journey once again. (4) SHECANDANCE N hasn't won in a while but she's good at picking up pieces when she lands on an easy trip - ok to include underneath. (6) POPPY DRAYTON N has been close 2 of the last 3 weeks and has shown that she's capable of hanging with these with the right trip - not sure if that'll happen from tonight's spot, however. (8) BALFAST N is a pretty steady player, but will likely be way too far back to make much noise tonight. (2) SANDYS BEACH gets major post relief but does seem to have fallen off form.


RACE 8 - (2) IMMA BE tempted fate dropping back in for the $30K tag after crushing that class on 11/5 and sire enough, he won AND was claimed - steps up to a solid NW8 class off those 2 wins but has looked like a horse that can handle it - we'll stay on board. (6) DEAN B HANOVER was a very game 3rd despite a tough first over trip in his local debut, then was absolutely loaded with pace near the wire last week with no place to go - could offer some good value tonight...with some trip luck. (4) IDEAL ARTILLERY is pretty good right now, gets post relief, and can handle any trip - good one to include in exotics. (5) CAPTAIN FANCY raced better adding Lasix last week but the very easy trip may have been a bigger factor - mixed feelings about his chances tonight. (3) TELL THEM LOU disappointed on 11/1 then was scratched injured on 11/9 - prefer others right now. (7) SKYWAY VICTOR was put in play for the first time last week and didn't fire nearly enough - not writing him off just yet, but also not jumping right back on his team from this tough post. (8) CAPTIVATE HANOVER trailed all the way from Post 8 last week, and may find himself too far out to threaten tonight as well. (1) CANTSTOPLYING was extremely dull from an easier spot last week - will just watch, for now.


RACE 9 - (8) ON THE CARDS N may be worth a shot in a wide open race - took back to last from Post 7 (off a bad date last week) but he's left from Post 8 twice recently, and hit board both times - willing to use, assuming the price is pretty decent. (2) SANTAFES COACH gave the classy Caviart Luca all he could handle last week, and was good the previous start as well - possible upsetter if the race falls apart (which is possible). (5) BELMONT MAJOR N was way beyond disappointing last week, going from being a weekly player in sharp OPEN fields, to just giving way and folding after cutting the mile against light years easier - if he rebounds to anything close to his top form he can crush these...but that's a BIG if, after watching him last week! (4) DIAMONDBEACH shrugged off the miscue from 11/8 to be a solid 2nd behind the odds on favorite in his last - more than capable of contending with these on his best effort. (6) ALL HANDS ON DECK's incredible career transformation has been well documented here several times - he lands in a tough spot for tonight, but would hardly be a shock. (7) ENVIRONS HANOVER shipped in sharp from PA and has been as good (and likely even better) since being claimed for $40K back on 10/18 - the issue here is the draw...and whether or not he'll be able to overcome it. (1) DANCIN DRAGON is more than capable of being a big threat against these from a spot like this when on his game...but he was scratched lame when last in to go, and has to be considered a question mark right now. (3) FIZZING N does his best work with a bit easier - wait for some class relief.


RACE 10 - (7) BOLT OF BEAUTY's last 2 starts here saw her defeat a NW20000 field, then a NW30000 field -- few (if any) of these could do that, so we'll stick with her dropping into this $50K claimer...and look for her to find the manageable trip she'll need to get it done from Post 7. (6) COWGIRL LILLY is on a very good roll, winning 3 of her last 4 starts, with the lone loss being a tough trip 2nd to a currently sharp rival - the main danger.(2) TALL POPPY N has gone off favored in her last 3 starts, but only able to get the job done in one of them - certainly wasn't bad in the losses, though, and could easily be part of the equation tonight. (1) WOODMERE HARRIET raced in this class in her last 2 starts and picked up a pair of 3rd place finishes - remains a threat to take home another good piece tonight. (5) MALNIFICENT's best work has come vs. cheaper, but she has a chance at a small piece here with the right trip. (4) ITTY BITTY has a good YR history but her current Canadian form is hard to gauge - we'll be sticking with others...but can see why she might be an attractive play to others. (3) KAITLYN N is now 0 for 24 on the year and fits much cheaper than these - pass for now. (8) FIRSTUP is hard to gauge off her current out of town form - either way, she'll have her work cut out for her from Post 8.


RACE 11 - (5) MYSWEETBOYMAX was the selection here last week and he took a tough beat (at 8-1) after going a tough, 2 move trip - the price won't be as attractive this time, but he deserves a chance at redemption off that excellent try. (1) UCANTTOUCHTHIS has been ultra consistent the past couple of months and draws best tonight - very legit threat (2) LAUGHAGAIN HANOVER did enough good work to make it to the OHSS Final...and picked up a close 4th in that race - should fit well with the locals, and worth including in exotics. (8) SOUTHWIND PETYR raced ok for 4th from Post 8 last week and may not have been cranked up all the way - he's capable of better, and may be ready for a sharper try this week. (3) MARLBANK ROAD hasn't been able to win yet in NW6 but he's consistently taken home pieces - chance for more of the same tonight. (6) NATIVES FILOU wasn't too far back last week (even though 7th), and picked up a win and a 3rd in the two starts before that - willing to include underneath at 20-1 ML. (7) CAPTAIN ROMANCE finished ok from a tough spot in last and has gone miles that would make him a player here - may be limited by the outside draw, however. (4) DIAMOND HEAD may need an easier field to have any big impact.


RACE 12 - (4) WHOS BETTER came to life off the class drop in his last couple at The Meadows - he ships in to a very sharp local barn, has enjoyed some success here in the past, and gets the nod in tonight's finale. (1) MISSILE SEELSTER looks like the main danger - overcame a disastrous trip at Fhd. to be a just miss 2nd (racing for this first time for the Dynamic Duo), then just missed when 3rd shipping in to Yonkers last week - very dangerous tonight. (6) ROCK KING DEO just wasn't on his game last week but he's capable of better- willing to include underneath in exotics. (7) WHITE HAIR ROCKS is now 1 for 66 over the past couple of years and just can't buy a win now, even at these lower levels - underneath only. (8) SIR PUGSLEY hasn't found his best game yet for the sharpest barn on the planet -Post 8 means a big price, if you think THIS might be the week he puts it all together. (2) SAILBOAT HANOVER, (3) LUZIANA, and (5) ZINNY MACH N are all off form right now, and would need bug time form reversals to be part of tonight's action.

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