The Empire Report - Monday, June 28, 2021 - Race Analysis
RACE 1 - NYSS 2YO C&G: (1) GRAND SPA has prepped nicely for his career debut, hails from top shelf
connections and has soft-handed Scotty Z. to guide him - we'll give him top billing in the first NYSS event
of the year here at Yonkers. (2) VELVET STYLE trotted steadily in his first qualifier then won a Pocono
baby race on 6/21 - clearly a big threat, but not an attractive wagering proposition at that 3/2 ML price! (3)
VALENTINE EXPRESS hails from a barn that is no stranger to the NYSS circuit - won his prep at VD,
and would be no surprise at all. (4) SNOW THUNDER just missed in his first qualifier, but made a break in
his next - hails from a top trotting barn, gets a big switch to Gingras, and the homebred may prove to be as
good as any of these. (6) QUINCY MARKET was solid in both morning preps, hails from sharp
connections but gets no luck with the draw - if a couple of these jump and he ends up with an easy trip, he
just may be a threat at the end. (5) COOPER RIDGE made a break in his first try over the half miler (at
Stga.), and just seems to be a work in progress right now. (7) T REX BLUE CHIP just hasn't shown as
much as the others...at least so far.
RACE 2 - NYSS 2YO C&G: (1) DISTANCE LEARNING kicked home strong in his qualifier to just miss
to Looks Like Moni (a Brittany Farms/Takter homebred), who then came back to jog in his next prep too -
hails from outstanding connections, draws best, and deserves the nod. (6) JUSTICE also qualified sharply
in NJ, also hails from top connections, but does spot the top one a significant post advantage - wouldn't
mind using him if the price was right, though. (4) CASTLE HOUSE sports a pair a solid preps at Magical
Acres and his barn will surely have him ready to go tonight - we'll see if he's in the same league as the top
pair. (5) WAKANDA jogged in his VD prep, then jogged over the half at Stga. in a 2YO race - his trainer
has been sending out competitive NYSS performers for ages, and this looks like another...and you don't
have to guess if he'll be handled aggressively! (2) CHAPHEART did a little better in his 2nd qualifier but
does seem a bit behind the top ones at the moment. (3) MOLOTOV COCKTAIL hails from a winning
team, but may be a notch below right now
RACE 3 - NYSS 2YO C&G: Good race, with most of the horses either high priced babies, prepping well...
or both! (2) BARN BULLY hails from a barn that seems to have a couple of really good ones (from limited
stock!) every year - solid preps upstate and gets a switch to Gregory for tonight - one of MANY with a
chance to take this 3rd division. (5) COOL PAPA BELL qualified nicely with Tetrick on 6/8 - had an
unknown pilot on 6/22, made a break in the slop, then recovered to almost come back and win it - Tetrick
back on board tonight, and this guy is certainly worth using. (4) SECRET RULE is hard to fault off those
impressive preps at Gaitway and will surely attract a lot of attention tonight - but as many races as this
dynamic duo win, they're not necessarily known (at least not yet) as developers of young trotters - more
than possible here, but also figures to be overbet. (7) WOULDYOULOOKATTHAT shipped down from
Canada to a top trotting trainer, added hopples, and looked good winning at VD (over the top pick) - brutal
post, but if a couple inside make breaks then he MAY end up with a decent trip - could offer some good
value here. (3) JACKSON STEINAM was a $110 yearling for a top shelf barn - improved nicely in his 2nd
qualifier, and may be ready to do some serious damage right off the bat. (1) GREY CLOUDS has a couple
of nice VD preps, will surely show speed, and could easily land a piece of this. (6) TANGLEWILD ROAD
is picked "last", but still would be no great shock here - won his NJ qualifier, and just wasn't ready to trot
1:56 in his first stakes appearance - good race!
RACE 4 - (6) ELRAMA N was a close 2nd behind the 2/5 winner last week, and beat this class a few starts
back - not sure how he'll respond racing for a new barn tonight, but he'll certainly benefit from the driver
switch to Brennan - at 9-1 ML, he's a good value play. (3) BLACKTREE also gets a barn change tonight,
and he's raced well in his last 4 starts (after making a break in his Hilltop debut) - still unproven in 20s, but
the guess is that he'll fit just fine. (2) MACHING TIME got hounded into submission by the heavy favorite
last week and eventually gave way - would prefer to see him one level down, but he's still a threat vs. these.
(1) TODDLER TANTRUM came up with an unexpectedly huge mile last week to beat easier - moves up 2
classes tonight. but he can still be a threat if he can replicate that effort. (4) TONY TOO TALL has picked
up only small checks in his last 3 tries in this class - ok for a smaller piece, but definitely no value at 3-1
ML. (7) ARTMAGIC generally needs an inside post to be a serious player at this level - wait for a better
spot. (5) JESSICAS BEACH BOY made only 2 starts in 2020 and now drops in for a tag after a weak try in
last - definitely a red flag. (8) RUTHLESS DUDE has blasted from similar spots in the past but coming off
a race where he backed through the field, the guess is that he'll be handled more conservatively tonight
RACE 5 - (1) BEGINNERS LUCK has been razor sharp and debuts for a new barn tonight (off the claim),
while taking a double jump in class - having the rail will certainly help offset that, as will the switch to
Dube - we'll see if he's sharp enough to wire these too. (3) OFFICIAL DELIGHT is sharp right now for a
hot barn, but he's just 1 for 42 over the past 2 years, and 0 for 12 at Yonkers (last 3 yrs.) - definitely would
use in exotics, but will need a pretty good price to use on top. (6) BAKERSFIELD was a very good 3rd 2
back, then had to be pulled up after stepping out of a hobble in his last - at 15-1 ML, he's definitely worth
using on some tickets. (5) ROUGH ODDS was pretty much non-functional for weeks in Ohio (at BIG
prices) - but after moving to this currently magical barn he was somehow sent off at even money for his
first try at Chester, and was a very easy winner vs. $10K claimers - shipped in to YR and crushed the 15s,
then was a super 1st over winner over the 20s in last - steps up looking for 4 straight...and it would surprise
nobody if he got it done! (2) GIVENUPDRAMING often "figures" but he's just 1 for 20 this year, and just
2 for his last 36 at Yonkers - tough horse to recommend on top as the 2-1 ML favorite! (7) REAL LUCKY
N was claimed from his last and adds Lasix tonight in his 149th career start - steps up while drawing Post 7
and that makes it tough to like his chances. (4) SPORTS TEEN would be a threat when "right", but he ships
in off a pair of horrendous efforts, and we'll wait for better signs before considering. (8) ROCKABILLY
CHARM was up the track from a similar spot here 2 back - he's capable of some big miles (see last), but
usually not from spots like this.
RACE 6 - (3) HASH TAG SWAG changed barns at Nfd. 2 starts back and the improvement was significant
- his connections have always done an excellent job classifying their stock when they first ship in to YR,
and this guy will probably be no exception - worth a shot in his Hilltop debut. (6) CHANGE STRIDE N
found the 40s a little too tough but has otherwise been excellent since the recent claim - not a great post, but
he'll be a good price and does have a chance to be a player if Holland can find him a decent trip. (1)
CHRISTEN ME N found a pretty modest NW10000 group last week and was able to control them on the
front end - he hasn't been quite as successful against these, though, and the classy 13YO may be vulnerable
at a short price here. (8) EFFRONTE N was floundering at Chester for one of the game's sharpest trainers
but upon moving to a barn that has produced SEVERAL miraculous (instant) turnarounds lately, he had no
trouble shipping in and easily wiring the locals (clearly the public now EXPECTS these seemingly
impossible form reversals from this barn and apparently so does Bartlett...who hopped off a horse from a
trainer that he always drives for that night to handle THIS seemingly formless shipper) - he's moving way
up here and lands Post 8....truly the "x factor" tonight! (4) FIREBALL has been having a rough season but
he moves to a new barn tonight after last week's claim - trainer also claimed BLACKTREE from this same
barn so perhaps note how that one does in Race 3 tonight, and evaluate this guy accordingly. (5) TIME
OUT IM TIRED was a sharp pocket winner 2 back, and a game 2nd when first over in last - he does move
up another notch tonight, and we'll see if his form is good enough to handle the rise. (7) MARTY MONKH
OUSER A is a rugged performer but his best work definitely comes vs. a bit easier - tough spot. (2) PROV
EN DESIRE just seems a bit overmatched against these, even with the good draw.
RACE 7 - (3) LINCOLNJAMES has continued to improve since the recent barn change and the classy
10YO ships in off a dominant Pocono performance - this is definitely a modest bunch of $40K claimers, so
he may be able to be successful in his Hilltop debut. (1) YANKEE OSBORNE has done good work since
moving to this barn last year and returns to YR in very sharp form - normally wouldn't think of him as a
$40K claimer, but the same can be said for many of the ones in here - legit threat from the pole. (2) JUST
PLAIN LOCO was 2nd best to a pair of very sharp performers before coming up with a BIG stretch rally to
win last week - he's definitely sharp enough to handle the class hike...but it's the change of barns that is a
bit of a concern - hard to leave him out of the exotics, though. (4) OZONE BLUE CHIP normally wouldn't
figure at this level but as noted, this is a somewhat modest crew - his current form is solid enough for him
to have a shot at a piece. (7) PROVOCATIVEPRINCEN has been a popular claim lately but he hasn't really
shown that he can win at this level - his damage is done on the front end...and it doesn't seem likely that
he'll get a chance to cut this mile tonight. (5) DREAMFAIR CHARRO used a ground saving trip to grab
4th two back - maybe he can pick up a small piece with similar tactics here? (8) OUR CORELLI N
definitely raced better last week, but gets killed at the draw for tonight - hard to see a way into the hunt for
him. (6) MAROMA BEACH really prefers to be in cheaper - will wait for a better scenario for him
RACE 8 - (6) ROCKAPELO certainly didn't come up with a "super" qualifier off the freshening but his
barn has been sending them out reliably ready for years - he catches a field that he would have at his mercy
if anywhere close to 100%, and we'll hop on board tonight as long as the price is fair. (2) FINE DIAMOND
has proven that he can win at this level when the trip goes his way - once you get past the top choice, most
of these wouldn't normally be thought of as "Open" pacers - definitely one to include on your tickets. (1)
PEACE OUT POSSE drew Post 8 in his first Open try and obviously gets a pass - moves all the way inside,
and most of his previous form would make him a very viable player against this "pesudo Open" field. (8)
ESCAPETOTHEBEACH has been in top form for some time - faces a very difficult trip from out here but
he'll be a big price, an is worth throwing in underneath for exotics. (5) RAUKAPUKA RULER N came up
visibly short at the end of his last 2 miles, after hanging on for the win 3 back - there's always a chance he'll
bring his "A Game" tonight and beat these...but there does seem to be some value to be had playing against
him tonight. (7) SHADOW CAT is having an outstanding year, but really hasn't shown the ability to thrive
from spots like this...especially at these upper levels - prefer others tonight. (4) CASUAL COOL brings a 4
race win streak into this (a neck shy of FIVE straight) but he's moving into uncharted waters against these -
at 3-1 ML, we'll look elsewhere this week. (3) IMSTAYNALIVE saw his own 4 race win streak snapped
last time when drawing poorly up in class - better spot tonight, but still think he may need to be in easier
RACE 9 - (7) DEALT A WINNER gets stuck outside but that last effort is pretty hard to ignore (brutally
parked through vicious fractions, still going by the leader after 1:23.3 three quarters then not far off at the
wire) - will need some better trip luck tonight, but he can win, if he gets it. (1) FOREVER FAV bumps up
in class once again but he's in absolute career form right now, and hasn't gone a bad effort since being
claimed by the "Super Siblings" for $20K back on 4/19 - he'll be class tested for sure, but he just may be up
for it. (5) MARK WITHA K gets a pass for his last (stuck in the back with no chance), but he just missed to
the streaking Casual Cool the week before, won the start before that, and has shown that he can beat this
type when on his best game - definitely a value horse to consider. (6) UPTOWN FUNK landed on a dream
trip last week but that doesn't detract from the very sharp victory he delivered - he's done excellent work
here for his young conditioner, and should still be included in exotics, even with the outside draw. (8) REV
ELRY scored nicely off the claim last week, and his owner (who has always trained a large stable of his
own), has been benefiting by allowing THIS trainer to handle the training for a couple that HE owns --
should be rallying late, but may be coming from a little too far back tonight. (2) LA PLAYER A hasn't
clicked since arriving in the U.S. but does add Lasix for tonight - we'll see if that helps. (3) PICARD A
couldn't have looked better rattling off 3 straight...but couldn't have looked worse than he did last week,
never looking "right" from the very start - perhaps he was hurt by the recall...but hard to back him after that
last performance. (4) GLENGARRY KNIGHT N was shuffled last week then wiped out on the final turn -
clearly he gets a pass, but still may not be good enough to be a player with these.
RACE 10 - (3) ALLUNEEDISFAITH N has always liked it here at YR, winning his only start of 2020, and
taking 4 of 15 in 2019 (for ($104K) - he's been very sharp since shipping north from PPk, and his last effort
at Chester was excellent, coming up just short in a 1:49.3 mile (despite missing nearly a month) - faces a
good field here, but he's earned top billing. (6) SEMI TOUGH is another "Yonkers Lover", compiling a
14-6-3-1 record -- he was able to hold his own through the entire Borgata Series, and qualified back nicely
after a freshening - legitimate threat right off the bench. (1) ROCKIN SPEED was too far back to threaten
in his YR debut but was a solid 2nd best out of the pocket last week to #2 - another good draw should give
him a shot at another good chunk. (2) SHNEONUCRZYDIAMND A is technically dropping off last week's
win, but this is definitely a tougher field - wouldn't be surprised if he beat these, but it'll be a lot tougher to
do than last start. (7) OSTRO HANOVER was well meant in last but was stuck first over to the razor sharp
frontrunning winner, and can be forgiven for weakening to 4th - he gets a meaningful drop here, but that
may be offset by the poor draw...might have to settle for a smaller piece this time around. (4) MACS JACK
POT just hasn't been able to get to top form in 2021, and is now 0 for 15 - he'll win soon...but probably
when he gets to face a bit easier. (5) MICKY GEE N hasn't been "bad" since returning from the layoff, but
he hasn't been close to peak from either - comes into this off a sick scratch, and we'll stick with others this
week. (8) GENIUS MAN doesn't figure to be able to get into the hunt from out here - pass for tonight.
RACE 11 - (1) IDEAL JIMMY shipped back in off 2 sharp Tioga wins and was very sharp here too...but he
was roughed up significantly in that start, and had license to weaken just a bit at the end - should have an
easier time controlling things tonight, and that should make him one very tough customer. (2) IM SIR
BLAKE A couldn't sustain his wide bid at Chester last week but a couple of those miles at The Swamp
(after arriving from Australia) would make him a legit threat here - seems like the main danger. (3) AIR
FORCE HANOVER hung horribly through the stretch last week after looking like an easy winner once
they turned for home - moves up in class now, but still a decent shot for a good piece. (5) CAPOZZO has
been facing softer in PA but does return to YR with 3 wins in his last 4 starts - he's always eligible for a
piece in this class whenever he lands on a manageable trip. (4) CAVIART MAX has had no success in his
last 3 starts (and did make a break in last) but he's also been in no-chance spots - maybe he can do better
here with an easier trip? (7) DELIGHTFUL TERROR was well meant in last and did race pretty well - this
is a much tougher spot, though, and he'll need quite a bit of trip luck to get close to the action. (8) AINTNO
BETTOR A won his last at PcD before shipping in and was a dead game first over winner upon arrival -
gets the double whammy of a class hike AND move to Post 8 tonight, and he's another that figures to have
a hard time getting into the mix. (6) WAR DAN DELIGHT A qualified nicely but has lost many times here
vs. much cheaper than these.
RACE 12 - (3) NANDOLO N was rightfully DQ'd after causing major confusion in his local debut,
seemingly uncomfortable at cutting a mile (despite 50 career starts) - there's no questioning his ability, and
it's telling that Bartlett opts off TYGA HANOVER to stick with this guy - we'll give him another chance
too! (1) LISBURN has finished 2nd in his last 3 starts, all at one level down - he may be pushing it up in
this class, but the rail draw will definitely help - include underneath. (6) THE WILD CARD has been doing
good work in Ohio, and now ships in to the owner's main trainer - guessing he'll be a good fit, and make his
presence felt in his YR debut. (5) HEAVENS GAIT beat this class 5 starts back but disappointed a few
times after that (vs. better) - he's tough to predict from week to week, but an ok horse to use when the price
is decent. (4) KERFORD ROAD A prefers to be one level down, but he can hold his own in this class when
sharp...as he appears to be right now - another worth including underneath. (2) TYGA HANOVER was a
pleasant surprise in the Borgata Series, holding his own much better than expected - he does seem to be
coming back to earth a bit lately, though, and could be a bit vulnerable right now - tough call. (7) TABOTC
REEKWHISKEY loves racing at YR (7 for 17 last 3 yrs!) but he probably needs to be in a much easier spot
to really be a serious player again. (8) GLACIS picked up a nice win over cheaper last week (dream trip for
him) but figures to be too far out for even a sniff against these.