The Empire Report – Friday, February 23, 2024 – Race Analysis
RACE 1 – (5) BEERTHIRTY K has been picking up smaller pieces lately but he’s also been facing tougher – he
lands in a field where most of the main players are questionable, and could be worth a play IF the price is fair. (3)
FRANK THE ELDER has a new trainer listed, so perhaps there will be a change in ownership announced as well –
regardless, he does fit with these, qualified vs. pacers, and could have an impact in his first Hilltop try. (2) JACKED
is just 1 for 14 since arriving on the scene but has faced mostly better – should appreciate the switch to Kakaley, and
could have a big say tonight. (7) DWS POINT MAN wasn’t even a thought when last on the final turn last week but
he suddenly started picking them off in the lane, and eventually passed them all – an eye popping move for sure, but
that may not work nearly as well against these much tougher foes. (1) B MEDITHREE has been “bad” or “very bad”
in all his recent starts– hard to just guess that tonight will be when he turns it around. (6) SKYWAY PROFESSOR
seems overmatched off his out of town lines but note that his barn has really been improving fresh stock lately – not
a bad stab for longshot fans. (8) KASHA V seemed like a threat heading into his last but turned in a dismal effort –
hard to back off that mile. (4) RACEACE will look better in NW5000 next week
RACE 2 – (7) HUNTING AS had a nice wake up call vs. better last week, battling hard first over and still right
there at the wire – may be able to overcome the draw and handle these with the class drop (and nice to see Tyler
Buter back in action at The Hilltop)! (4) TIMESTORM added hopples and raced well in his last pair across the river
– he’s the one to beat, but he’s lost in similar spots often enough to deem him risky at a short price. (5) LUCKY
WEEKEND drops, gets a better draw, and could have a bigger impact tonight – not a fan of the 3-1 ML price,
however. (3) EX PLOSIVE RIDGE has bounced back since that dud 3 back, and was actually very good last week –
a similar effort could land him a piece of this. (1) WILY WALLY failed badly on the lead as the favorite 2 back, then
was never in play from Post 7 last week – moves back inside, and an easy trip may help him grab a piece. (6)
EVERLASTINGFA SHION was overdriven 2 and 3 back, but had only mild late trot after an easier trip last week –
tough draw now. (2) URNTROUBLE HANOVER was no good 2 back – some life in last, but broke on the final turn
RACE 3 – (2) BLACK TIE BASH can always be counted on for a good late rally but often it’s too little, too late –
he may get to sit off a contested pace tonight, and be close enough turning for home to make that late kick count –
decent value play in a very competitive affair. (4) SWEET SOUL DAVID was a nice 2nd in his first start off the
layoff, then roughed up just a bit too hard from Post 7 last week to last at the end – remains a very dangerous player
with any decent trip. (1) STREET GOSSIP hasn’t been a threat so far in ’24 but he hasn’t been terrible either – look
for a more aggressive try tonight, and possibly a very good result. (6) PAPA DOC rallied for 3rd from well back last
week but will likely be coming from well out of it once more – maybe a decent value horse for 3rd/4th? (5) WINDSONG PIONEER was excellent in that speed-show blowout on 2/9 but he was scratched from his next, and has speed
inside of him tonight– just may not be the best spot tonight. (3) FULL RIGHTS is good right now, and a well earned
winner in his last – may find things a bit tougher vs. these, however. (7) ITSONEOFTHOSE really outraced his odds
with an excellent 2nd last week (shipping in from Monti) but the move out to Post 7 does figure to hurt his chances.
(8) HAT TRICK MARLEAU hasn’t been clicking – Post 8 isn’t going to help his cause
RACE 4 – (6) SILK CLOUD A went a BIG mile right off the layoff but had to settle for 2nd after a brutal trip – this
is hardly an “easy” field, but she earned top billing with last week’s performance. (5) MILLWOOD BONNIE N is a
streaky mare that’s hitting on all cylinders right now – she’s taken 3 in a row, and has to be seen as a serious threat to
extend that streak to 4. (7) RACEY RACH N had plenty of pace finishing in tight quarters in her first try for the
nation’s leading barn – terrible draw, but that 12-1 ML price makes her very tempting to include. (2) GOT SEXY SC
ARS is up in class but she draws well, figures to be a decent price, and a live trip could land her a spot in the exotics.
(1) TALENT TO SPARE A worked hard to earn last week’s victory, and MacDonald gets lots of credit for keeping
the raging tripsitter shut off in the lane – steps up seeking 3 in a row, and it’ll be harder against this tougher field. (8)
GOT THE GOLD fits with these and was good last week...but the draw may have her forced to wait for a better
scenario. (3) SAUBLE DELIGHTFUL was outkicked home off a perfect trip last week and will need to be better for
a chance tonight. (4) LYONS MIKI wasn’t as good moving up in class last week – may need to be in easier
RACE 5 – Well matched bunch, especially all the inside horses: (3) LUCKY ARTIST A may not be on her “best”
game right now, but she’s certainly been solid since returning for her 2024 season – she’s been going off at decent
prices and since this race will probably come down to trip, she may be worth a play. (4) MAN DONTFORGET ME
rarely throws a bad one, and has hot board in 3 of her first 4 starts this year (4th in the other) – very possible. (1)
GOLDEN QUEST N handled the big jump beautifully last week for her new connections – draws the pole again,
and has to be taken very seriously. (2) NO WIN NO FEED A seems a notch below the top mares, but a good fit with
these – the right trip could make her very dangerous. (5) HEAVENS SHOWGIRL A draws outside 4 solid foes but
that doesn’t mean that she can’t come out on top – with the right trip. Both (7) DELTA THREE N and (8) FADE
OUT failed to threaten from tough spots last week and face the same situation tonight. (6) CHERYLS SHADOW
lands in a tough spot for her first start of the year.
RACE 6 – VERY tough FM Open, especially with several of these “prepping” for the Matchmaker Series, and their
level of “seriousness” for tonight hard to gauge: (2) UPTOWN HANOVER may not have the reputation of some of
the other “big guns” in here but she did “quietly” earn $170K last year, and has shown that she CAN hold her own
with these – she’s good right now, and draws inside – maybe she can spring a mild upset? (4) TONYS MOM quickly
blossomed into an excellent mare after landing with our top trainer last year, rarely goes a bad mile, and can use her
speed to land a good trip here – a possibility, for sure. (5) DELITFULCATHERIN N hadn’t been on her best game
for some time but she brings a 4 race winning streak into tonight and it may be time to start giving her serious
respect again. (8) RACINE BELL gets the worst of the draw and surely has her sights on bigger prizes than this –
that being said, would hate to let her beat you at a big price! (6) EASY TO PLEASE had a 2023 to forget but is off
to a MUCH better start in 2024 – we’ll see if she’s on the road to being a legitimate Matchmaker player once again.
(3) COACHELLABOUND N feels a bit off her best but she’s beaten the Opens before and a big price makes her
worth at least a look. (7) LIT DE ROSE is a wonderful mare...but will likely be coming from well back in her
seasonal debut, and may struggle to get into the mix. (1) KARMA SEELSTER is only listed on the bottom because
SOMEBODY has to be – guessing she’ll need a start or two, but may still at least contend for a small piece
RACE 7 – (1) JUSTASEC N qualified sharply, and had more pace than his line might suggest in his first start back
– he’s used to facing MUCH better, and looms a very dangerous threat tonight with the class drop and rail. (6)
HICKF ROMFRENCHLICK gave it a big try from Post 8 last week before just missing – can blast again, and be
part of the equation. (2) FEELIN WESTERN went a very good mile in his first start of ’24 but was no factor last
week – could rebound tonight from this spot, and land somewhere in the exotics. (3) MIGHTY SANTANA N has
been tough to predict from start to start but he has a couple of recent 2nds at big prices, and is worth using if the
price creeps up. (5) DANCE ON THE BEACH was very good when 3rd two back, followed by a sharp win in his
last – he faces tougher here, but may be sharp enough to still have a say. (4) DIVINE RIGHT debuts on Lasix for a
new barn but his 2 for 36 record last year doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence – leaning towards others. Both (7)
GENIUS MAN and (8) TWIN B DELUXE likely need better posts in easier fields to be serious players
RACE 8 – (6) FORGOT THEWALLLET A was sent off favored for her U.S. debut, worked out a two hole trip, but
never got the room she needed in the stretch, making a break as she tried to squeeze up the pylons – she was likely a
winner that night, and deserves a chance to get it right tonight. (1) MISS DOTTIE MAE seems to be racing herself
back into form, and should be ready for a big try tonight from the pole – legitimate threat. (4) COWGIRL LILLY
has had some tough posts lately but was 2nd to MILLWODD BONNIE N 2 back when she had Post 2 – a decent trip
puts her in play for a piece here. (2) GAME OF SHADOWS is good right now, and comes off a 12-1 (overlay) win –
chance for a piece here, even up in class. (7) HALLELUJAH HANOVER is probably sharpening, but the terrible
draw may leave her waiting for a better spot next week. (3) ROCKNROLL ANNIE fits the bottom class – wait for
her to drop in there to consider. (5) SPITTIN IMAGE makes her first start of 2024 – struggled at YR last year
RACE 9 – (5) TIN ROOF RAIDER A raced well in 3 of his last 4 starts, and might have won last week if not
hounded by the tripsitter heading to 3/4s – one more chance? (1) GLACIS doesn’t win too often but he landed on a
dream trip last week and cashed in– draws another rail, and a repeat performance is possible. (6) QUATRAIN BLUE
CHIP is just 1 for 29 over the last 2 years but he’s come up with back to back sharp tries and has to be taken
seriously in his current form. (4) HIGH ON ROCKNROLL has just been “ok” lately, and that’s probably why he’s 0
for 19 here – still ok to use underneath, though. (7) MISSILE SEELSTER is sharper than his lines might look, bit
lands yet another terrible post – decent bomb to include for 3rd/4th. (2) SHARK PLAY qualified back well enough for
our leading barn but may be ambitiously placed vs. the 30s – willing to consider for a minor share. (8) ALOTBETT
OR N won 10 races last year but is off that top form right now – brutal draw too. (3) KB MAC was no factor at all in
his ’24 return, and struggled here in most of his 2023 starts as well.