Tuesday Empire Report

soaofny • November 1, 2022

The Empire Report - Tuesday, November 1, 2022 - Race Analysis

RACE 1 -(3) CHIEFS BEACH beat a NW7500 field here on 9/9 then held his own for several starts

against our high priced claimers - gets massive class relief as he returns from Fhd. (off a nice mile), and

looms the one to beat in tonight's opener. (5) PONDERINGJACKSFAME debuts tonight for the Super

Siblings so perhaps it was the way he flew to the top from Post 8 (at Delaware, for Joe B.) that persuaded

them to purchase this guy - he shows a win vs. 30s at Scioto in Aug., and also has 10 wins and $79K on the

card so far this year - could be the main danger in his local debut. (1) HIGH BALLER always hinted at

ability but has been plagued by a bad gait in several of his local starts - returns from PA off a confidence

building win, and could land himself a spot on the ticket from the pole. (2) ROLL WITH TIME arrives

from Ohio with less than stellar recent lines but he does draw well with Bartlett on board - maybe can

improve enough for a small piece? (4) MINGO JOEL went a big 8 hole try here 4 starts back but failed to

match that effort in his last 3 starts - chance for a minor piece, with an easy trip. (6) OHARE HANOVER

raced well here early in the year but vs. "NW PM" types - hard to gauge his current form off those recent

Canadian lines. (7) GLEN GARRY KNIGHT N just hasn't been sharp in a long time - looking for better

signs. (8) PAST DUE didn't function here on 10/4 for his new barn but did rebound to beat cheaper last

week at Fhd. - tough spot here.


RACE 2 - (3) GENIUS MAN upset this class at 21-1 4 starts back, and was pacing out of skin at the end of

the mile last week, just missing 3rd from way back - he's not the most reliable horse on the planet, but we'll

still give him the nod tonight. (4) EHRMANTROUT continues to climb the class ladder without the benefit

of a recent victory - his form is rock solid, and a good trip would give him a chance to come out on top here

(1) CAN BE PERFECT made an uncharacteristic break last week but had been pretty sharp for a while

prior to that - he drops right back in the box, and could easily be a player here....if he can just shrug off last

week. (2) ODDS ON OSIRIS was a rail skimming, non factor 6th in his local debut and will need to be a

lot better here if he hopes to have any serious impact - maybe check the tote board? (5) IMSTAYNALIVE

is just 1 for 21 here this year but did hit board in half of those losses - always willing to include him

underneath. (6) PATRIOT NATION is moving way up in class while also drawing outside in YR return.


RACE 3 - (2) DELIGHTFUL TERROR had been struggling a bit with better but looked much sharper

dropping to this level last week - catches a pretty shaky bunch tonight, and it might be a good spot for him

to get his picture taken. (1) ROCKATHON has been plagued with miscues and lesser efforts lately but this

is a prime spot for a wake up call - should be right there from start to finish....IF he minds his manners. (7)

MARINER SEELSTER really seems like the two long years (at ages 12 and 13!) haven finally taken a toll

on him....on the other hand, he really hasn't been "bad" lately, and his ever dangerous barn did send out a

couple of winners and other sharp performers on Monday night - would consider only if the price was

decent. (3) EDDARD HANOVER hadn't been good in most of his recent local starts but some tough spots

were definitely part of the problem - returns off a win upstate, and may be able to grab a decent piece here.

(4) CAMPORA N doesn't feel like a threat to win, but he's one of several in play for a piece with the right

(easy) trip. (6) ROCKIN JUKEBOX had been struggling but Bartlett put him on the lead last week and was

able to get him home safely for his 1 for 74 barn - much tougher spot tonight, but we'll see if he built some

confidence. (8) ROCKINMYSHOE has been solid in his last 3 starts but may have trouble getting close to

the action from out here. (5) SANTAFES COACH is being listed on the bottom here, but he's really no

worse than several of those posted above him - chance for a minor share.


RACE 4 - (6) HERRICKROOSEVELT N had pace finishing 2 back in his first start off the layoff and

wasn't bad at all last week, holding ok for 4th after racing first over, vs. better, in a hot mile - tough draw,

but that also means a better price - may be worth a stab here. (3) LOUIE THE HORSE N hit the top after

dropping in class and easily dominated last week - more than good enough to handle the class rise...if he

can work out another good trip. (4) REIGNING DEO hit a rough patch for a while but has been racing well

since August and drops tonight for a barn that seems to always be hot - include him on your tickets. (5)

RAUKAPUKA RULER N raced well for Lachance on 9/17 - if he leaves the gate again tonight, he may be

able to land on this ticket somewhere. (1) GINGRAS BEACH was a first over 2nd best the last two weeks

and draws the pole tonight - he does face better, however, and may be destined for only a smaller share. (2)

GAMBLINGTERROR had a couple of nice 2nds vs. cheaper but was no threat in his last, and is just 1 for

21 here this year. (7) PADUKA N looked very good in that first over win 2 back but that was vs. easier-

couldn't get involved from a similar spot last week, and may be looking at the same scenario tonight.


RACE 5 - (5) PURE COTTON went a nice mile here on 10/6 when she just missed to DC BATGIRL -

dropped in for a tag last week and had no problem making the lead from Post 7, and then safely wiring the

field...good chance she can make it 2 in a row. (1) HEAVENISSOFARAWAY was used really hard to make

the top last week so we'll give her a pass for giving way and tiring badly - looking at a much easier trip

from this spot...and likely a much better showing. (2) TOBAGO TIME hasn't won in some time but she

does continue to race well most every week - remains a good one to include underneath. (7) NUTTINBUT

HEBEST was well backed on 9/15 when she cut the mile vs. better before weakening to 4th - no prayer

from Post 8 (off a month) but not bad at all last week, finishing well after finally shaking free into the

stretch - terrible spot, but a good value to horse to try to squeeze into the exotics. (8) LOOKATMYART

worked out a beautiful trip last week, looked like a winner early in the stretch but lacked the late pop she

needed and had to settle for 3rd - she's 19-4-6-3 here this year, and isn't a bad bomb for 3rd. (6) MILLWO

OD BONNIE N just didn't fire last week - willing to forgive that mile, but tonight's draw figures to make

things tough on her regardless. (4) POPPY DRAYTON N isn't "bad" now, but could really use some class

relief. (3) WOODMERE SKYROLLER is starting to get better but the move to 50s seems unwarranted.


RACE 6 - This is a strong NW8 field but the nod still has to go to the fresh import (5) HEMSWORTH N,

who shows a qualifier (with his trainer on board) that suggests that he has a lot of ability - he'll likely be

overbet, but the guess is that he's a pretty nice horse! (3) TWIN B DELUXE gave heavily favored NAUTIC

AL HANOVER a good battle to the wire last week, and his barn has really been heating up lately - belongs

in exotics. (7) TRENDY TEEN is 5-3-2-0 locally with one of the "losses" being when he was disqualified

and placed 2nd, and the other being a tight 2nd behind the raging (at the time) GREAT SOMEWHERE -

Bartlett likes him enough to select him from Post 7, and you can look for an aggressive try, despite the poor

draw. (6) SHAKERTOWN re-qualified in PA after a brief freshening and should be ready for action - he

crushed in his only local start this year, but the draw was unkind to him for tonight - probably looking at

only a smaller piece this week. (1) EXOTIC SAND landed on a perfect trip last week and used it to charge

on by to an easy win - he's taking a big step up here, but the rail draw may help him take home a minor

share. (4) KAUAI KING is a much improved horse but he's also facing some tough customers in here - he's

hit board in 5 straight, but that streak may be in danger tonight. (8) SOUTHWIND SANDO can probably

hold his own with the top ones here but maybe not from Post 8 - just a very tough spot against a few pretty

nice foes. (2) BAY BRUTE was sloppy gaited and on a line last week - waiting to see a "cleaner" effort

before hopping on his team.


RACE 7 - (5) SPLASH BROTHER can throw some ugly looking miles when not on his game, but he can

also deliver some very sharp efforts when feeling good - this is the kind of spot where he figures to show

up ready for action (but he's not one to go overboard on if the price is too short)! (1) OZONE BLUE CHIP

was in career form recently but he's been no factor at all in his last few starts - hard to say if he simply

tailed off, or if the bad spots just left him with no chance - draws the pole tonight and will be handled

aggressively...could easily bounce back with a big one. (4) SAULSBROOK HERO is generally at the

mercy of his trip but IF things get testy up front, he may be heard from at the end - decent value horse to

consider. (3) BLANK STARE has been facing a bit easier in PA but with decent success - he has a good

history here, and this trainer/driver combo is always dangerous - ok for exotics. (6) FAMILY RECIPE

scored as the favorite last start but he was all out to beat much easier - will need to be sharper for any

chance against these. (7) SO MANY ROADS has been solid for weeks, even at these higher levels - the

draw may slow him down considerably, however. (2) BIG SIR generally needs to be in easier to do his best

work - tough spot, even with the inside draw.


RACE 8 - Good race: (3) CAVIART CHERIE woke up suddenly 2 back then built off that mile with a win

in her last - she still figures to be a fair price here, and may be able to take another if the trip goes her way.

(4) ALWAYS B MIMI really upped her game after being claimed for $12500 on 9/15 - no chance in her

first try at this level last week (8 hole), but she can be handled more aggressively tonight - possibility. (5)

PAIGES GIRL just missed 3 back and was a winner last week - another that could get the job done tonight

with the right journey. (2) LAURIE LEE always "figures", is always well backed, but has just that lone

nose win 4 back to show for it - remains a threat, but insist on a fair price if using her on top. (1) ASHTINI

saw her string of 3rd place finishes snapped when she reported home 4th last week - hard to leave her out

of exotics starting from the pole. (7) SO FIA LOLITA found herself with too far to come in her first try in

this class and is looking at a similar scenario tonight - would need a very live flow to be a bigger threat. (8)

ACEFOURTYFOUR ALEX has been on her game for weeks, but will need a ton of racing luck to do much

damage from out here. (6) CAYS BLESSING has won a ton of races out of town the past 2 years but not

against this type of competition - may find herself in a bit too steep with these.


RACE 9 - (6) COALITION HANOVER came to life 2 back when 2nd best to a sharp repeat winner, then

raced very well again in his last, once again 2nd best to another sharp front end winner - draws well outside

his main rivals here, but he's worth a look at a decent price. (2) AIR FORCE HANOVER came up horrible

last week but he's done that many times in the past and often bounces right back - more than capable of

winning at this level if even close to his best. (1) SURREAL ART will attract plenty of $$ upon arrival

from Indiana and he may just run and hide from these - he does figure to be way overbet, however, and note

that he's just 2 for 32 this year before betting the rent money on him. (4) CLEVER CHARACTER raced

much better in his 2nd local start and may be able to build off that - willing to include underneath. (3)

AINTNOBETTOR A is 1 for 29 this year but did hit board 10X - ok bomb for 3rd/4th. (5) MISSILE SEEL

STER seems to gradually be finding some better form recently - another with a chance for a minor piece.

(7) WAR DAN DELIGHT N is now 1 for 64 over the past 2 years (0 for 45 here) and hard to consider from

out here. (8) MOHAWK WARRIOR drops to a better level but that will likely be offset by the poor draw.

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