The Empire Report – Thursday, July 18, 2024 – Race Analysis
RACE 1 – Excelsior A, 3YO C&G Trot: (4) FRINGED folded badly at Buffalo 2 back but has otherwise put
together a solid season, including a sharp 1:57.3 at Goshen last week – he’ll undoubtedly get an aggressive try with
Daley in the bike, and we’ll give him the slight edge in the opener. (5) WOWERESS showed ability at 2 and has
gone some sharp miles so far at 3 – he MAY be the “best” horse in here, but he’s also prone to miscues...don’t fall
in love at too short a price. (3) BUT WHY raced well in his 4 starts at 2, and has been in tough spots in a few of his
starts so far at 3 – he has a chance at the mile upset if the top pair fail to deliver. (1) JAKEY JUMPUP has 2 2nds
and 2 3rds from his 4 local starts, but mostly thanks to staying flat in soft fields – seems a bit below the top trio. (6)
GRIT MAN probably has some ability but he draws outside after miscues in his last two. (2) PAPA JOE LOZITO
has managed just one 2 nd from 13 career starts – leaning elsewhere.
RACE 2 – NYSS, 3YO C&G Trot: (1) SIR PINOCCHIO was in a great spot at VD last week but made a (rare)
miscue when he tipped wide on the final turn to make his move – the recent Yonkers Trot winner gets the hobbles
back on tonight, and we’ll look for him to get right back on track. (4) KEEP ASKING also made an unexpected
break last week (in a Stga. overnight) but he’s done some good work in NYSS events this year, and did plenty of
good things last year, as well – could be a player tonight. (5) IT WASNT ME has ability but he did break on the half
last year, and also made a break here 2 back (in his Yonkers Trot. Elim) – feels a bit risky, especially starting from
the outside. (2) NOTTINGHAM feels like he MAY be tailing just a bit but he could land on an easy trip here, and
that would put him in play for a big chunk. (3) THINKER MONEY raced over the half twice this year and broke
both times – another that just seems a little risky
RACE 3 - Excelsior A, 3YO C&G Trot: (1) CHAPLIND has 3 wins and $181K on his card...and TWO of those
wins (and $151K) came right here at Yonkers – we’ll see if he appreciates the return to his “lucky oval” and can
improve his local slate to 3 for 3. (4) MIGHTY DEO has improved quite a bit from 2 to 3, and already has a pair of
wins and a 2nd in these Excelsior A races – should be a legitimate threat here. (2) RAMBORAIN is another that has
matured this year, currently 9-4-1-2 as a 3YO after going 8-0-0-0 at 2 – he stays trotting, and certainly belongs in
exotics. (3) BARN CREDIT was 7-1-4-1 as a 2YO but just fell apart at 3 (after changing hands) – seems to be
coming around a bit, and we’ll see if he can at least make his presence felt a bit tonight. (5) THE THING IS got
collared with no excuse 2 back, and that effort is sandwiched between a pair of miscues – prefer the more reliable
ones in here
RACE 4 - Excelsior A, 3YO C&G Trot -tough race! (3) INFLATION’s only Excelsior A race this year produced an
easy front end score – he held his own vs. better, and crushed a NW3 field at VD last week after moving to a new
barn – the one to beat, but also figures to be a very short price and has made some breaks. (5) PEPPER WOW has
hit board in all 6 starts this year, including 3 Excelsior A races – he clearly gets along well with his trainer in the
bike, and has to be seen as a very legitimate player in here. (6) SKY BOX has a win and a 2nd from his 2 Excelsior A
tries, and is 3-1-2-0 here at Yonkers – the main knock is the draw, but some racing luck could put him right into the
mix. (2) TOBERN had a slow start this year but has looked much better recently – he won his only start here at 2,
and is another that could find himself in the hunt tonight. (4) PROMISES ME stays trotting but does seem better
suited for a bit easier.
RACE 5 - NYSS, 3YO C&G Trot: (1) FLY BY gave it a big try in his Yonkers Trot elimination, battling all through
the lane before coming up a nose shy – he had to settle for a no-factor 4th in the Final (after an uncharacteristic
miscue), then had no real chance last week at VD when too far back into a hot final quarter – gets the slight edge
over (2) SUPER DOOPER COOPER. The latter also was too far back to threaten in the Zweig last week, but was a
NYSS winner at Buffalo the week before, almost winning at Monti as well – clearly the main danger. (4) VOSS BL
UE CHIP tries to make the jump to NYSS after a win at the Excelsior A level last week and will have to prove that
he can handle the likes of the top two. (6) VICTOR LASZLO had 4 wins at PcD to start off the year but hasn’t been
better than 3rd in his NYSS tries – tough draw will probably leave him looking at only a smaller piece tonight, as
well. (3) CRAZY BROTHER JIM pulled off a big upset in a Brennan Trotting Series leg this April but just hasn’t
done much since then – needs to really up his game. (5) ROBERT MICHAEL appears significantly overmatched
RACE 6 – NAADA Amateur Summer Series – (7) STICK WITH ME KID starts from Post 7 but that’s the same
spot he landed in his last 2 starts at Monti (after a barn change) and was an absolute (odds on) jogburger winner both
times, even shrugging off an early miscue in his last to win effortlessly – will be hard to knock off IF he doesn’t self
destruct. (5) SECRET BRO as some good recent tries at Stga. and now moves to a barn that has been improving
fresh stock all year long – he’s the one with the best chance to knock off the top choice. (2) KASHAS BOY is 0 for
10 at YR over the last 2 years, and just 2 for 40 overall...that being said, he does grab his fair share of smaller pieces
and is usable underneath. (4) PSALMSFORTYSIXFIVE added hopples last week and trotted well late to pick up a
3rd – another contender for a small slice. (3) PILSNER FROSTY won an amateur race in early May and grabbed a
3rd two back – chance for some minor spoils. (1) LA MAGIC draws inside but has been struggling in all his recent
starts. (6) LIMERENCE hasn’t been 1 st or 2nd in his 17 local starts in 2023-24 – prefer others
RACE 7 – (4) BLACK MAGIC won 5 races and earned over $150K at 2...just one win as a 3YO but he banked
over $220K chasing top ones all year – he ships in from NJ where he’s been hanging in there against some excellent
trotters (in the Graduate Series), and he’s handled the half miler just fine in the past – we’ll give him top billing. (6)
UNEVERGONNAGETHIS started the year off slowly then went on an extended form spree (even holding his own
in the Open for several starts) – he’s shown some wear and tear in his last couple, however, and it’s hard to say if
tonight’s drop will be enough to get him back on his best game. (2) PASSIONATE PROMISE was a sharp winner in
her first local try for our new leading trainer – solid effort from an impossible spot last week, and she can be more
aggressive here with the move inside – possibility. (3) WARRIOR ONE isn’t on top of his game right now but we’ve
seen the classy 8YO rebound with top efforts many times in the past – he does tend to get overbet, however. (1) HA
ND DOVER DAN has a pair of solid 2nd from his 3 starts since returning from PA, and was about to make a big
move in the other start when he went offstride – he can be a little steppy at times, so Buter may have to handle him a
bit carefully, even with the good draw. (7) BEERTHIRTY K has been loving life in his current barn, and comes into
tonight with 2 wins and 2 seconds from his last 5 starts (broke in the other) – tough draw, but he’ll be a good price
and not a bad stab for longshot fans. (5) VINNY DE VIE doesn’t feel like he’s on his best game now and lands in a
strong field – leaning to others. (8) JULA MUSCLE PACK is sharp right now, but may be too far back to threaten
RACE 8 - NAADA Amateur Summer Series – (8) EXPLOSIVE RIDGE has hit board in 8 straight and that includes
4 victories – he can handle any trip, but should be able to at least improve enough at the start to get into much better
position – he may give Adamczyk a pair of bad-post victories tonight (if STICK WITH ME KID also delivers in the
6th). (4) RACEACE is 8 for 19 at Yonkers over the past 3 years, and his 80 year old pilot is having an amazing year,
currently 22-8-4-4 here at the Hilltop...logical theat. (5) DROP THE MIC has some mixed local efforts but did nose
out the top choice 2 back...giving him at least a chance tonight. (3) BEACON BEACH was a well backed, sharp
winner here 3 back, was right there in his next then had Post 8 last week – viable player. (6) SHOEMAKER HANO
VER is 0 for 4 here this year but a strong 4 for 10 out of town – that 20-1 ML price makes him worth at least a look.
(2) WINNERESS picked up a win at Goshen last week but he’s 0 for 15 locally over the past 2 years, and just 1 for
25 over the last 3...does grab plenty of pieces, though. (1) FASHION FOREVER makes his first local try of the year
after going just 2 for 46 over the prior two seasons – leaning towards others. (7) SNOWMAN HANOVER lands a
tough spot for his start of 2024.
RACE 9 – (4) BAD BOY TOO failed at 1/10 two back with no excuses but was able to make amends last week,
scoring easily at 3/5 for his new barn – remains the one to knock off. (3) CELLMATE never got in play last week
but did charge home to just miss (at a big price) 2 back – maybe he can have another late say if the trip goes his way
tonight? (2) CHIEF CORLEONE just missed 2 back, then found just enough at the wire last week to pick up 2
nd (while no threat to #4) – logical contended, but needs to be a bit sharper for a shot at the top prize. (5) HES HALF
NAKED tripped out and squeezed out a win 2 back, but was unable to handle last week’s tougher journey – leaning
to a couple of others, but not impossible. (1) FOUT has shown little in 4 starts since arriving from up North but may
be able to at least stay closer with the rail and Gingras. (7) THE SERPENT was 13-0-0-3 up in Canada this year –
his new barn WAS winning with these things regularly for a long time, but is now just 1 for 37 locally (since mid
May) and harder to have faith in. (6) AIRY SHADOW went south recently and would be hard to recommend
RACE 10 – (2) PERFECT VIXEN has been good all year but looked particularly sharp in her last couple – could be
a spot to be very aggressive...and perhaps parlay that into a win? (6) DIAMANTE TRIO IT just kept getting better
all year, eventually making it to this FM Invitational level (and holding her own since getting here) – if she can blast
hard enough to land on/near the lead, she can be a legitimate threat. (3) HOT FLASH KIMMY has gotten much
better since her first couple of tries here in April and drops back in with FM tonight after hanging in with some solid
males in her last pair – a quick start puts her right in the hunt. (5) P L NOTSONICE has been rock solid in this class
all year, grabbing more than her share of wins – she’s also coming off a sick scratch, and possibly coming from last
–and that could make her a bit vulnerable this week. (4) QUEEN OF ALL finished steadily in her last after returning
from a couple of sick scratches – could be sharper now, but this is still a tough spot. (1) PARISO hasn’t been on her
best game in a while – leaning towards others, despite the good draw
RACE 11 – Good race: (4) AIRMANS JACKPOT dropped back down to her preferred 40s last week but came up
just a little short at the end after making the top from Post 7 – she’s beaten these a few times in the not-so-distant
past, and is one of several with a legitimate chance in here. (5) P C FREE WHEELING drops down from 60s, and
she was a big player a bunch of times even at THAT level – very dangerous here if she brings her best. (1) INFINITI
STONE is capable of huge miles, total clunkers, and everything in between – he dug in gamely to hold 2
nd to the heavy favorite last week, and could easily have a big say tonight. (6) GAELIHILL hung in with tougher in a bunch
of starts this year but it took a class drop (and nice trip) at Pocono last week for him to finally pick up his first win of
the season – it may have given him a confidence boost, and he returns at a reasonable level – consider if the price is
good. (7) ROGER RABBIT is 5-1-3-1 since arriving from Ohio and has the speed to at least improve position at the
start – seems more likely to grab a smaller share, than a bigger one. (8) SKYWAY PROFESSOR was 2nd in this class
3 back and was a blowout winner in an amateur race last week – would have been listed higher tonight if not for the
terrible draw. (3) J S HOPSCOTCH feels like he’s tailed a bit, and this would be a tough spot to look for him to
bounce back. (2) FIGHT SONG has been away 3 weeks (sick scratch) and lands in a very solid field
RACE 12 – (1) GENTLE GIANT was in a no-chance spot last week but just prior to that, he blasted to the top from
Post 7 and absolutely jogged at 29-1 – he won’t be nearly that price tonight, but he does have a solid chance to get it
done dropping down to 30s. (6) SURFRIDER is 2 for 2 since moving from our 2nd leading barn to our top outfit –
that last win was definitely impressive, and he should be a serious threat despite the draw. (2) KID FROM THE
BRONX races well whenever he draws well and that’s the case tonight – worth using on some tickets if the price is
right. (4) CAPTAIN T HANOVER got it done for us at 7-1 last week, though things did start to get a little shaky
right at the end – leaning a bit more to a couple of others tonight, but he would hardly be a surprise. (7) THAT DOG
WILL HUNT got outbrushed by #4 to the top of the lane last week but never quit, coming back late to be right there
on the wire – he’s been a player in almost every start this year, but tonight’s draw does figure to hurt a bit. (5) HUNT
ED HOUSE wasn’t bad in either local try, and isn’t a bad bomb for 3rd/4th. (3) EURO STEP was a 15-1 winner for us
2 back, but reverted to his lesser form last week – would need a pretty big price to consider him on top tonight. (8)
LAST POUND figures to need a much better draw to be a player with these.