The Empire Report - Thursday, August 24, 2023 - Race Analysis
RACE 1 - Good opener! (5) CREATE MYSTIQUE was very game on the front end last week (2nd behind
a standout winner), and that mile is even more impressive because she apparently bled (as she adds Lasix
for this week) - she may have a tactical edge over a few of her main rivals tonight. (3) BAR COINS is just
one of several horses that his "rising star" young trainer has recently been able to transform immediately
upon entering her barn - he's won 3 of 5 starts since the big barn change, and might have won the other two
if not for unfortunate miscues (with excuses each time) - can't have Bongiorno at the lines tonight (he's
driving his own #5), but he remains ever-dangerous with Stratton in the bike. (6) CREATIVE VENTURE
has hit board in 5 straight and come back super after a long layoff - he's ready to win one, but tonight's
draw may leave with another smaller slice. (7) IN A TINY WAY won at this level 2 back and is rock solid
against these types - will need a lot of trip luck to overcome Post 7, however. (1) MUSCLE DAN was worn
down by #3 last week and weakened to 4th - may be able to rally for a piece with a stalking trip tonight. (4)
WANIA does race best for Bartlett, but seems a notch below the main players in here. (2) ER NO MORE
hasn't functioned for months, and really needs to find some much easier spots!
RACE 2- (1) GREG THE LEG had a recent rough patch (no checks for 4 straight starts) but recovered
from that and has now won 3 straight, in very impressive fashion - gets to control the action in this short
field and the road to the winner's circle goes through him. (2) HAZEVILLE just got worn into submission
by a razor sharp LOUS SWEETREVENGE last start and gets a pass for weakening to 4th - if he can just sit
an easy trip here, he'll get his chance in the lane to make amends - the main danger? (3) NUTTIN BUT
FINES SE has raced well in most of his YR starts and comes into this off a pair of (no threat) 2nds behind
sharp winners - the easier his trip, the bigger the piece he can grab here. (5) SHAKE IT has been a solid
player all year but has just one WIN, and lands outside tonight - he'll probably need to leave (and hope) for
a chance to contend for a top prize. (4) SIMON SAYS HANOVER has done outstanding work since
arriving from Canada but hasn't raced in 3 weeks, and has just one start in 6 weeks - leaning to others
RACE 3 - (4) RICH AND MISERABLE has a somewhat mixed history here through the years, with an
assortment of big efforts and untimely miscues - he's clearly been sharp at Pocono, and we'll give him a
narrow edge in his first local try of the season. (5) ALL CHAMPY continues to amaze, seemingly able to
thrive for any barn, in any class, and with almost any trip - very dangerous here with any decent trip. (3)
HAYEK wasn't close at all in his last couple but gets a drop from the Open and gets Bartlett back on board
- may be ready for a wake up call, but don't take a short price if he's your play. (6) PERRON caught a fast
mile off the claim but still rallied for 3rd - he's been very good for some time, and could offer some value
here IF some trip luck comes his way. (1) OH BOY was (inexplicably) forced to draw for outside posts in
his last 2 starts (the Open, where he was obviously overmatched) but gets both post and class relief here -
first real chance to thrive since the recent claim, but he may just be off his game right now. (2) NEW HEA
VEN has turned his season around since the recent barn change but does remain iffy up at this much higher
level. (7) HOOLIE N HECTOR certainly looks much better on paper lately, but he still doesn't seem to be
at that peak form we saw earlier this year - the draw is also brutal
RACE 4 - (7) NO MAS DRAMA picked up a win and a sharp 2nd behind WHAT SHOULD I GOO at this
NW20000 level back in June - dropped back down last week and was a sharp 2nd to a currently razor sharp
ABRUZZO...may be able to get the job done tonight even from out here. (2) VALI HANOVER is a model
of consistency, and that's why he's been claimed from his last 5 starts - he's overdue for a victory, and will
have his chance for one tonight with the right trip. (4) SOUTHWIND ARTURO could only manage a 5th
last week but did finish with plenty of trot from an impossible spot - he's another that's overdue for a win,
and should be a fair price tonight. (1) WINDSONG PIONEER does his best work with a bit easier, but he
has speed from the pole, and an easy trip could land him a decent chunk tonight. (3) STREET GOSSIP is
another that probably needs to be in softer for a chance at the top slot, but is good enough for a small share
if things go to his liking. (5) B MEDITHREE has certainly thrived locally since arriving from Ohio, going
5-3-1-1 at The Hilltop - he steps up off a win vs. easier, and we'll see if he can maintain that fine form
against these tougher foes. (6) WILLY WALTON may have leveled off a bit after several good starts
RACE 5 - NAADA Amateur Fall Series: (1) JIVE NINETY FIVE landed on a hopeless trip from Post 7
last time but should be looking at a much kinder journey from the pole tonight - he gets along well with
Yogi Sheridan, and looms a solid threat. (4) HP RUNNING MASS was a nice 3rd in an amateur event in
NJ two back- got a little tired chasing a quick mile here last week, but should be a perfect fit in here tonight
- not a fan of that 9/5 ML price, though! (7) RED OVERBACH faces a tough assignment from Post 7 but
that blowout effort at Chester 2 back shows that he IS capable of big miles - some trip luck could make him
a dangerous player. (5) FUN TIME CHARLIE was away for 4 months but certainly qualified back nicely -
worth a look if the price is juicy enough. (3) FAIR GLIDER was pretty good not long ago but his last pair
haven't been as sharp - needs to rebound to that better form. (6) CALL ME THEFIREMAN has speed and
has a couple of wins here this year - tough post tonight, however, especially with some speedy types to his
inside. (2) UNCLE KIP seems a bit overmatched with these but the good draw may at least keep him in
contention for a minor share. (8) KEYSTONE APACHE won 10 races and $113K last year but hasn't had
that same success in '23 - a lot would have to go his way to win from all the way out here
RACE 6 - (1) STRATEGIC was solid in his first two local tries before an early miscue eliminated him last
week - he could be pretty tough in here if he goes back to minding his manners. (7) SHOPPING IN PARIS
was a winner in her local debut over a rival who came back to win his next start - Bartlett can probably
hustle her away to a good start (even from out here), and that would make her a threat to repeat. (4) DRINK
UP DRINK UP struggled in his few starts at 2 but won his first 2 starts as a 3YO (in Ohio), then was an
even 4th at Pocono for his new barn - eligible to be sharper tonight...and a very live player. (8) WISTERIA
HANOVER seems to far out to consider for a top prize but she still may be able to rally well enough to be
tired ones and breakers - use on the bottom of exotics. (5) MEETMEATTHEBAR is a 2YO facing older but
Dube's own has flashed a bit of ability - maybe a piece? (6) SQUABLE has banked $83K despite only ONE
win in his career (66 starts) - maybe he can squeeze out a 4th? Both (3) WAVERLY HANOVER and (2)
MY BELFAST ANGEL would need to improve for even a small piece
RACE 7 - (3) EPOS OSTERVANG DK finally got in the win column for 2023 last week and he did it
impressively - if he's as sharp tonight, there's a chance that he could make it 2 in a row. (5) LINDSEYS
PRIDE's fate was probably sealed at the start last week when he took off the gate (for the first time in ages)
- he was off a bad date, and he does drop right back in the box- that 10-1 ML price makes him worth a look
(4) IM THE MUSCLE has hit board in 4 straight even as he climbs the class ladder - sharp enough right
now to be a player here, with an easy enough trip. (7) BRAVE BY DESIGN shipped in off a pair of sharp
Pocono wins last week, was sent off deservedly as the favorite but never left, never pulled, and was never a
player at all - hard to know what to expect from him after that performance. (1) P L OSCAR is capable of a
big wake up at any time, especially with tonight's major post relief....but he's just been off his best for too
long to jump on his team right now. (2) PROMISE FOR LIFE has been struggling lately, and is another in
need of a major turnaround. (8) CRAZYCAT raced 226 times before being claimed by his current barn...
and the 10 year old immediately rattled off a pair of total blowouts, setting a new lifetime mark in the
process - he took a few weeks off after tiring in start #3, and will have a hard time overcoming the draw in
his YR return. (6) AFTER ALL PAUL doesn't figure to be able to get involved from this spot
RACE 8- Tough race! (2) EL MISSION GODDESS won a race here on 6/15, even if helped by
breakers/confusion off turn three - he changed barns before his last start, and was a very encouraging 3rd in
an Excelsior A event - draws inside his main foes, and may be able to get it done here. (3) ROSE RUN
YANKEE looked like a winner into the stretch last week but Holland really didn't drive him (a little too
steppy?) and he came up a slight nose shy - very eligible here. (4) HARDROCKCAFE shipped in with
some solid out of town form, was well backed but lost all chance after an early miscue - certainly a chance
to make amends tonight, but hard to get excited after seeing that 2-1 ML price. (6) DOUBLE DIPPIN
looked beat from before 3/4s last week but through some good fortune (and gameness) was just able to
prevail - he may be able to take another, but he draws poorly and may not be as fortunate this time around.
(7) LONES TAR FASHION has the ABILITY to beat these, even from Post 7...the problem is that he
seems to self-destruct in most of his local starts, making him quite risky - consider only if the price is juicy.
(5) AVACA KES had a good stretch of starts but seems to have leveled off a bit - sticking with others here.
(8) IM AN ANDOVER has ability and tries hard, but moves up in class while also landing Post 8 - wait for
a better spot. (1) LIVINGONTHERAIL is hard to endorse, even from the pole
RACE 9 - (3) NEWSBOY's recent form has landed him with no class except for the Open...so tonight's
drop in for $50K makes perfect sense - if he's as sharp here as he's been in most of his recent starts, he'll be
very tough. (1) CRESCENT BEAUTY seems to come in two versions, and we certainly saw the "good"
one last week (though her task was made easier when "eternal leaver" LINDSEYS PRIDE took off the gate
to her inside, and favored BRAVE BY DESIGN backed off as well) - if she brings that same "A Game"
again, she'll have a big say here. (2) FOR A DREAMER hasn't been the same dominant horse since exiting
the easier "Pop Up Series" but he also had 2 bad posts - chance for a much better effort with the move
inside. (5) ABBEY D shipped in with some solid Ohio lines and was a good 3rd in her local debut - we'll
see if she can be even sharper the 2nd time around. (4) BIZET went his best effort in some time last week
to be a close 2nd to #1 - hard to say if it was a one-time mile, or if he can build off that and be a player
again in here. (8) CANTKEEPMIASECRET was an easy wire to wire winner 2 back so it was surprising to
see her taken off the gate last start - she may just not have been 100% because she ended up making a break
heading to 3/4s...lands the worst post after taking a week off, and may need to wait for a better spot before
we see her best again. (6) NASEY won 3 of 4 at PcD after being claimed by the very same connections that
had instant success after taking CRAZYCAT as well - this guy just re-qualified after a month off, so
perhaps see how CRAZYCAT does earlier tonight, and adjust accordingly. (7) IN MY DREAMS has been
very steady lately but may have a tougher time overcoming the draw this week
RACE 10 - (3) PHOTOBOMBR HANOVER exits a 5% in Ohio and joins the Super Siblings....who are
back to winning almost at will with fresh stock- pretty routine selection, even off the bad date. (1) GENIUS
MAN has a few decent tries recently against better, and lands the rail in a much softer (overall) group - not
always the most reliable horse, but should have a good night tonight. (2) ROSE RUN X CON was able to
beat a soft group 3 back, then had 2 impossible posts after moving up to this level - should be able to
contend for a piece with the move inside. (5) MR IBIZA N actually tried hard in his YR debut but seemed
to get worse on every turn - he can be a serious player IF his trainer has found a way to get him to travel a
bit smoother around the bends. (6) GO DANCING A found himself in a very easy field last week and was
able to hit the top and wire 'em - this is a much tougher spot, and he may have to settle for a smaller slice.
(4) DA GHETTO WIZARD has always been unpredictable from week to week and that has held true for
his new connections as well (just look at his last 2 starts) - if you're guessing he'll be "on" this week, then
use him in exotics. (8) REIGNING DEO is just 9-1-0-0 here this year and gets stuck behind the 8 ball
returning from PA. (7) JO JOS PLACE just isn't clicking and draws poorly - sticking with others
RACE 11 - (4) HEART ON MY SLEEVE was no threat in his last few tries vs. 40s but wasn't terrible
either - he charged home to just miss dropping to NW7500 last start, and now drops once again to the
bottom level - deserves top billing. (5) COPPER TEEN did great work last year after joining our leading
barn but has struggled mightily in 2023- he changed ownership and was moved to the Dynamic Duo before
his last but blew up in the pocket at PcD - probably deserves another chance. (3) WAR DAN DELIGHT N
wasn't bad in his first couple of starts off the claim but was no factor last week - would consider using as
long as the price is decent. (6) BIG SIR is having a tough year, but is the type that could perk up quickly in
a spot like this - another worth a look at a good price. (2) BETTER B SWIFT just hasn't clicked at all for
his current connections - maybe a minor share? (7) AINT HE SPECIAL was slightly better in his last after
a long streak of weak efforts - terrible draw here, however. (1) MR KELLY draws the pole but is 8-0-0-0
locally over the past 2 years - sticking with others. (8) OUR CORELLI N found some better from vs.
cheaper in PA, but his recent local form has been dismal