Monday Empire Report

soaofny • July 15, 2024

The Empire Report – Monday, July 15, 2024 – Race Analysis

RACE 1 – (1) TWIN B DELUXE had a stretch where he just kept getting caught in the back of the pack in POUND

FOR POUND’s sizzling miles and just had no prayer at all – he landed in better spots 3 and 4 back and was right

there both times behind a sharp HAZEVILLE (and FAMILY RECIPE) but was derailed by bad posts/trips again in

his last pair – gets both class and post relief for tonight, and that should make him a big threat in the opener. (7) UN

DRTHSOUTHRNSUN N changed barns last week and used a quick start from Post 8 to grab a pocket trip and pick

up a 2nd – another fast start could put him the hunt once again. (4) WALKINSHAW N is sharper than his lines might

look, finishing well from hopeless spots a number of times – he may be sharp enough to have a chance at the mild

upset tonight IF things go his way. (3) CAUGHTINALANDSLIDE turned in a nice tough-trip 3rd at a big price last

week – if he can find an easier journey tonight, he has a chance to land on the ticket somewhere. (5) SAN DOMINO

A is rarely a threat to win these days, but he drops from 40s and may be able to grab a small piece, with the right trip

(6) NOME HANOVER goes for another new barn after showing some better life in his last couple – tough spot here,

however. (1) GOOD INVESTMENT does have a win at this level but in a much easier field – seems up against here,

even from the pole. (8) GAMBLINGTERROR will look more attractive when he drops to NW5000.


RACE 2 – (1) VERDUN was absolutely hammered at the windows for his local debut (getting a big barn change)

and he did not disappoint, going right to the top, yielding for the pocket trip and then charging through up a clear rail

to deliver for his backers– he gets to control the action tonight, and has to get top billing in this pretty sharp field. (2)

SURFSIDE BEACH has been solid all year long, despite some tough trips along the way – he MAY prefer to be

down at the $30K level, but the good draw makes him a solid player in the 50s as well. (5) TWO FACED has been

terrific (for 3 different barns) since being claimed on 6/10, and can race on or off the pace – any live trip puts him in

the mix for another big chunk. (3) JUST ENUFF STUFF is a tough call – he LOOKED like he was in a winning

spot last week but faltered badly on the lead...and even the public wasn’t enamored with his chances, opting for #1

in that race (and almost ignoring this guy, even in exactas and trifectas) – he goes for a new barn tonight, and it’ll be

interesting to see if he bounces back with a top effort, or if he’s just tailing right now. (6) SHAKESPEARE was also

well backed last week and was an excellent 2nd to the top choice – he may be hurt significantly by tonight’s draw,

though. (4) BOUNTY HUNTER can be forgiven for his YR return (Post 8) – we’ll see if he improves here.


RACE 3 – (8) IM A POWERPLAY A certainly benefited from circumstances last week as he was left to crawl on

the lead after SIX horses were taken out early on...but he was razor sharp BEFORE last week’s easy victory, and

has shown that he can leave from outside spots in the past...may offer good value tonight, even with his current

stellar form. (1) PAT STANLEY N has made some nasty breaks in the past and we saw another last week – he’s also

bounced right back in the past, and that may very well happen tonight, especially returning to a barn he’s done well

for – clearly a big threat, but also could be way overbet. (3) GENIUS MAN can be inconsistent but he’s had good

moments at this level, and really wasn’t bad last week (off a poor trip) – worth a look if the price is right. (4) KERF

ORD ROAD was on quite a roll before just falling apart after the 5/31 claim – it seems like an encouraging sign that

he hasn’t dropped in price (despite those dismal efforts), and he obviously gets a pass for last week – maybe it’s a

spot for a form reversal for our (new) leading trainer? (2) KOOTENAY SANTANNA has some good recent efforts

vs. cheaper at The Swamp – he figures to be forwardly placed here, and that gives him at least a puncher’s chance.

(6) NOWHERE CREEK A was certainly better last week but sitting the pocket to slow fractions (after the other 6

were wiped out) may have been a big factor – tough draw, regardless. (5) ARTIST BEST was better in his last pair –

maybe he can rally for a small piece? (7) DEEP INFATUATION N tries 30s after 3 straight losses in 15s.


RACE 4 – (5) ANOTHRMASTRPIECE N was unable to gain last week after pulling uncovered to 3/4s but it didn’t

help that he had three sharp horses in front of him pacing home in :27.2 – he gets his favorite pilot back tonight, and

may be able to be handled much more aggressively – the only knock is that his trainer (winning at 40% to start the

year), is just 1 for 47 since mid-May! (3) LOUS SWEETREVENGE has been in some very difficult spots lately but

will be much closer to the action tonight – he’s won more than his share of starts at Yonkers through the years, and

looms a real threat tonight. ($) KINGSVILLE was on quite a roll from April until early June but has been slowed by

tough spots recently – he’s another that could be primed for a much bigger effort with tonight’s kinder scenario. (1)

MI KITEEN had been doing excellent work since the barn change until last week’s disappointing front end try –

maybe he can rebound tonight with an easier trip? (6) MELANION N qualified in beastly fashion at Monti on 6/19

but didn’t even pretend to be interested in his U.S. debut on 6/26 – he was clearly more serious last week, however,

when bet down to 1/5 and able to deliver the first over victory – we’ll see how he handles this much tougher spot.

(7) CASINO ACTION N has shown ability at times but lands in a brutal spot for tonight. (2) LUCKBEWITHALEX

has a good local history but we’ll just observe tonight as he makes his first start since December.


RACE 5 – (3) TIP TOP CAT was very good in his local debut, and it was no shame to be overtaken in the stretch by

a pair of very nice horses – this field may be more to his liking, and we’ll give him top billing. (4) AMMO was a

Breeder’s Crown winner at 2, but had a disappointing 3YO campaign – he’s finally starting to really thrive at 4, even

if he’s been facing easier at Ocean Downs – big class jump tonight, but he may be able to handle it in his current

form. (1) JAHAN HANOVER isn’t really a prolific winner but he always races well from spots like this, and should

be able to be an up close player from start to finish – would want a “fair” price to use him on top, however. (2) CAP

TIVATE HANOVER won 10 races here last year and already has 5 tallies in 2024...he hasn’t been on his “best”

game lately, however, and will need to find one of his better efforts to threaten for the top slot tonight. (6) NAUTIC

AL HANOVER is a classy performer that has enjoyed a solid season – he does figure to be coming from well back,

however, and that may limit him to a smaller slice. (7) THUNDER HUNTER JOE has a couple of pretty recent wins

at PcD after a slow start to the season – he seems sharp enough to bang heads with these right now, but may need a

better draw to do so. (5) FEARFUL INTENT is pretty good right now, but may need the front end vs. cheaper to be

at his best. (8) GINGRAS BEACH drops a peg, but still seems pretty buried (a win comes off the bottom next week).


RACE 6 – (2) ULTIMAROCA has just been scary sharp for weeks, and is just as dangerous from on OR off the

pace – Stratton has plenty of options from this spot, and deserves the nod in his current form. (1) TYPHOON

BANNER N never lived up to his potential after arriving here last year then started off ‘24 5-0-0-0 locally –

something clicked at Pocono recently and he returns off back to back to back wins, including one last week over the

very talented BOILING OAR (while handled that night by a lesser pilot) – back to Bongiorno for his Hilltop return,

and seems sharp enough right now to finally start doing some local damage. (8) AMERICAN DEALER N is feeling

good again and comes into tonight riding a 3 race winning streak – he may be able to stretch that to 4, but he’ll need

some trip luck to do it from out here. (3) CADILLAC BAYAMA struggled at the end of 2023 but has been super in

’24, already winning 5X and earning his way up to the top level – he’s definitely leveled off a bit, but may be able to

rally for a good chunk here if things go his way. (6) POUND FOR POUND certainly hasn’t been “bad” since his

winning streak ended 4 starts back, but it does feel like he’s starting to lose at least some of his edge – wouldn’t be a

shock, but leaning a bit more to others. (7) CENTURY HEINEKEN was a sharp winner (off a sick scratch) 2 back,

even if helped by a beautiful trip – no prayer in his last (but raced ok), and he may be stuck too far out tonight, as

well. (4) FAMILY RECIPE benefited from a short break and raced well in all 4 starts since returning – may find this

spot a little too tough, however. (5) GREG THE LEG may not be the winning machine of 2023 but he’s still a very

hard hitter – this doesn’t feel like his kind of spot, though.


RACE 7 – (2) REAL WILLEY has been chasing some good ones so it was no surprise to see him score in a sharp

1:52 off the drop back into claimers last week – moves up a peg to 50s, but this feels like a field he may be able to

handle, as well. (4) MAXIMUS RED A is having a terrific year so far (19-5-5-5) and is particularly fond of his

current barn – a serious threat any time he lands on a good trip. (6) SHINE A LIGHT flew home through the lane 2

back to rally from last to 2nd (racing off a month) then scored on the front end in his last – remains a very dangerous

player, despite a tough draw. (1) OPTICAL ILLUSION N has been very solid at this level, though not able to

overcome last week’s tough trip – an easier journey puts him right back into the hunt tonight. (7) THRASHER rarely

throws a bad one, but is often hurt by his lack of “handiness” – he’ll be at the mercy of his trip starting from Post 7

tonight. (3) PURPLE POET can probably grab pieces against these types (with a good trip) but likely needs to be in

a bit easier to threaten for the top slot. (8) JIMMY CONNOR B actually had plenty of pace finishing from a no

chance spot last week...but will likely be in a similarly tough spot tonight. (5) SOUTHBEACH HANOVER feels a

bit overmatched at this level.


RACE 8 – Good race: (1) WHATS STANLEY GOT A failed to threaten from Posts 7 and 8 in a couple of recent

starts but those miles are sandwiched around a couple of front end scores (albeit vs. easier) – we know he’s capable

against these types too (when on his game), and he MAY be primed for a big mile tonight. (4) BACKSTREET SHA

DOW seemed to have landed on a beautiful trip last week (following DESPERATE MAN) but the sizzling 3rd

quarter seemed to zap his energy for the drive home – remains a legitimate threat against these with a trip he likes.

(6) COVERED BRIDGE may not be at his absolute best right now, but he’s definitely “very good” – the versatile

veteran can be dangerous here with a variety of trips. (3) BIG GULP took three weeks off after a disappointing try in

his last but note that he was a very sharp winner here on 4/30, also off a 3 week layoff – Bartlett also takes him over

a couple of others, perhaps suggesting that this guy will be ready to bring a big one. (2) HIMSELF N charged home

through the lane to beat cheaper last week but still needs to prove that he can win at THIS level – small piece? (5)

NANDOLO N’s last win came with a pocket trip (vs. easier) over 2 months ago – he was outkicked from behind in 2

straight starts, and Bartlett opts off tonight...a pair of bad signs. (7) NONE BETTOR A picked up a win and close

2nd in his last pair but does seem up against it tonight with the move outside.


RACE 9 – (5) SOUTH POINT was a no-threat 3rd in a somewhat disappointing local debut – he’s definitely capable

of better, and maybe we’ll see it tonight as he debuts for a new barn – gets the narrow call in a well-matched field.

(3) TAKE A CLOSER LOOK is an outstanding 7 for 16 locally this year but doesn’t feel as sharp lately, and drops

below the level of the $40K re-claim on 6/22 – we’ll see if the drop perks him right up, or if he’s just not on his

game right now. (2) LAZ seemed sharper earlier in the year but had some better life 2 back (off the claim) before

landing in a no-chance spot last week – could be a late threat with the right trip. (7) HES SPECIAL recently won 2X

at this level before taking home minor pieces vs. the tougher 40s in his last pair – drops back down, but overcoming

the draw may not be easy. (1) DEMPSEY HANOVER has been “better” overall lately but he’s 0 for 9 at YR and just

2 for 30 overall in 2023-24 – prefer others on top. (6) LYONS PRIDE won in this class 2 back but used all of a

perfect trip to do so – may have trouble getting in play with tonight’s poor draw. (4) VANDALISM was ok late for a

distant 4th last week and likely looking at only minor spoils tonight. (8) VICTOR CRUISE beat softer in PA last start

but seems up against from Post 8 vs. this bunch.

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