The Empire Report – Tuesday, September 3, 2024 – Race Analysis
RACE 1 – (2) CALLMEQUEENBEE A has been good for some time...but she’s elevated her game significantly
over the past 3 weeks, and shown that she’s so sharp right now that even trip doesn’t seem to matter – she faces
another very sharp mare in here, but still deserves top billing. (5) PURE SILKY would normally have been the clear
choice in here as she’s been holding her own (and sometimes beating) better than these in all of her recent starts –
she drops a peg, but will still need to bring her absolute best to knock off the top choice (3) HEAVENS SHOWGIRL
A wasn’t at her best for a while but she’s come up with three straight sharp effort, finishing 2 nd each time – not sure
she can beat the top pair, but she certainly belongs in exotics. (1) COMMANDER CATHY N is a bit below the top
ones but another rail draw giver her a chance at another small piece. (6) MISS CHANTILLY N finished well from
an impossible spot 2 back but then failed to fire at all (when well backed) last week – maybe 3rd/4 th? (4) ROCKNRO
LL ANNIE has been better lately, but still could use some class relief. (7) COALFORDSNSHINE GB was ok for a
couple of starts after the recent claim but does seem to be regressing now
RACE 2 – (5) IDEAL COVER got hot on the lead vs. the 50s last week, sizzled 3/4s in 1:23.1 but still could only
watch the scary-sharp CALLMEQUEENBEE A go by her on the final turn – that ended her 3 race winning streak
but a drop back to 25s tonight may help her start a new one. (6) ALWAYS BE CITY turned in a BIG effort in last
week’s victory, moving from 6 th past the stands (while never flushing any cover), collaring the leader after a long
battle and still strong enough to hold on easily for the win – dangerous here with a live trip. (2) JUST ROSAS
LUCK continues to hit board, while not reaching the winner’s circle– we’ll see if the switch to Kakaley can help her
enough to get her picture taken. (3) SPORTS FLIX changed barns before her last and did improve, easily handling a
lesser field of 20s – hard to say if she can continue to improve enough to threaten these as well. (4) NUTTINBUTH
EBEST has been very hard to gauge from week to week lately – if she brings her best she can be in the hunt – but a
little too unreliable for our tastes. (1) MCNATURAL L shipped in sharp from Western NY, landed in a barn that
usually improves ‘em right off the bat but turned in a disappointing speed try – too soon to write her off after just
one starts, but definitely leaning elsewhere, for now
RACE 3 – Tough race: (7) FREESTARFLIGHT was riding a 5-race winning streak before struggling a bit for a
couple of starts vs. the tougher 60s – dropped back down to the 50s last week and was an excellent 2nd in CALLME
QUEENBEE A’s 1:51.3 mile – chance to beat these (even from Post 7) if some things go her way. (5) CRUISERSF
OXYJUDY didn’t take long to win her way out of the “NW more than 4PM” class, and seems sensibly tonight –
would give her a look against her elders if the price is right. (1) CHASE YOU was doing her better work in Ohio vs.
easier but she does move to our 2nd leading barn, and also draws the pole with Bartlett – she picked up 9 wins last
years (and over $100k) so she’s not an unreasonable stab. (4) JIVE DANCING A has been all over the map this
year, winning the Matchmaker Consolation then losing at the bottom level not too long after that – she’s certainly
back on the upswing now, and would be no real surprise. (3) NO WIN NO FEED A threw a weak try off the claim
last week but that was vs. the 60s – she’s been a major player at this $50K level, and a quick rebound is possible. (2)
PURAM ERI has done some good recent work but may need to be in a bit easier. (6) PARADISE ROCK L is
probably better than her lines look right now, but she also draws a bad post in a well matched field
RACE 4 – (2) AMMO has been on the lead 5X since June 16 (at various tracks) and won all 5 starts – seems like a
spot where Bongiorno can get him to the front, so we’ll go with him on top. (3) MARTINS MILLIONS ships in
sharp from Ohio, lands in a top barn and seems like a good fit with these – worth a look in his local debut. (5) SON
NY WEAVER N had pace finishing from a tough spot last week after a pair of 2nds just prior to that – not sure what
trip he’s looking at from this spot, but he can grab a nice chunk if it’s a good one. (6) THE GOOD DOCTOR has
been doing good work since leaving KY, and he even held his own in the 3-5YO Open last week – terrible spot, but
worth a look if the price gets juicy. (1) BILL HALEY N doesn’t win all that often but the good draw at least gives
him a shot to tow along for some minor spoils. (7) WATTSUP SUNSHINE A has started to find his best form since
arriving in the U.S. but may hit a road bump tonight because of the draw. (4) HUNTERS HERO came up a bit
disappointing last week and now is forced to move up in class – leaning towards others.
RACE 5 – (6) KID FROM THE BRONX has definitely stepped up his game since changing hands 3 starts back –
he just missed on 7/30 after being hard used, just missed again in his next (to the razor sharp OHOKA LE BRON N)
then was simply victimized by a horrible trip last week (courtesy of JOHNNY SACK) – faces some solid foes here,
but definitely a good value play. (5) DEALERS TURN has also upped his game recently, and landed on a bad trip
last week in the same race as the top choice – could easily make his presence felt tonight. (3) RENAISSANCE DEO
got hot this spring and rattled off 4 straight, before a trip of 2 nd place finishes – he tired on 6/25 then took some time
off after that, and it’s hard to gauge his readiness off that qualifier – it’s a good sign that Bartlett takes him, but that
6/5 ML price is a little tough to swallow. (2) JOHNNY SACK was sent on a strange mission last week, ultimately
killing his own chances, and pretty much the chances of the top two choices in here – a better trip could see him pick
up a piece of this. (1) PENDLETON RODEO won his first 7 starts of the year in the Maritimes, then was scratched
sick for his scheduled Pocono debut – he did win over there on 8/25, but in a very slow mile (NW1) – total guessing
game as to how he fits here. (4) MANHATTAN ARTIST had an encouraging debut for new connections at Chester
last week but Bartlett opts for #3 – leaning towards others, but wouldn’t be a total shock (7) FIREARM adds Lasix
but the draw may leave him waiting for a better spot
RACE 6 – Tough race: (6) FORWARD LOOK just missed at PcD two back and now ships in off last week’s career
best 1:49.3 score – he’s been bagging heads for weeks vs. some solid stock over there, and should be a nice fit with
the locals. (4) FLAG PARTY has been excelling at Saratoga, winning the last 4X he had a catch driver – he’s
another that should be a good fit here, and he gets an aggressive pilot at the lines tonight. (3) ICACO HANOVER
picked up 2 wins, a 2 nd and a 3rd from his 4 local starts but then took 5 weeks off and re-qualified – if he’s 100%, he
can be a big threat here. (7) SINBAD N has been knocking on the door for weeks – seemed to be in a great spot for
his last, was sent off at 1/5 but his chances went out the door when he was offstride before the start – he’ll certainly
be a much better price for those inclined to stick with him. (1) AYR BALMORAL GB certainly earned that win last
week but was helped by a very slow 3rd quarter, tiring leader, and some bad trips for the main players – possible, but
prefer a couple of others a bit more. (2) IDEAL PAR has raced well in 5 local tries this year but still hasn’t found the
winner’s circle – could be looking at another smaller piece tonight. (5) JERSEY BEACH’s last line looks very good
on paper, but the trip was a lot better than it seems – the jury is still out as to how well he fits with these
RACE 7 – (1) ROLLING WITH SAM benefited from an easy trip last week but he did kick home with plenty of
pace into a fast mile, with a sharp final quarter – he’s continued to race well for a long time, usually with less than
stellar trips...he really is overdue to land on a winning journey...maybe tonight? (4) FAMILY RECIPE has been
good for weeks vs. better, and certainly gets a pass for his last (trying to rally from 7 th into a :26.4 final quarter) –
should be a big player tonight with the class relief. (6) CASINO ACTION N had no prayer last week but he’d been
knocking on the door behind some good ones in his previous recent starts – chance here, but only if Kakaley is able
to get aggressive. (2) HEZ ALLTHE RAGE N has developed into another solid performer for a barn that has come
to excel with these imports– leaning a bit more to a couple of others, but he’d really be no big surprise. (3) SPORTY
M THREE was an ok 3rd returning to YR 2 back, but had no real pop last week – still a live one for exotics. (5) WIN
DSUN RICKY drops a win off the bottom of his card after tonight and is looking at a class drop next week –
probably a better time to give him a look. (7) CAVIART SARGENT failed to beat a horse in 3 of his last 4 starts but
did provide the barn with one of their recent bog-bomb winners (28-1) on 8/16!
RACE 8 – (3) UNITY has been claimed in 8 of her last 10 starts and with 6 victories during that period, it’s not hard
to understand why – she brings a 4 race winning streak into tonight, and remains the one to knock off. (4) ELISES
DELIGHT has been sharper lately, gets some post relief, and may be able to add some value to the exotics. (6) NIK
ASA N missed by a head to the top choice 3 back, then picked up (very short priced) wins in her last pair – her odds
will definitely be much better here, and it would be hard to blame anybody looking to take a shot with her. (1) EBO
NY LADY was an easy winner last week, but it was with an easy lead in a much softer field– she tackles tough
older claiming mares tonight, and it’s hard to say if she’ll be up for it. (6) CHARMING VIXEN shook free late last
week but was certainly full of pace once she did – she’s probably more comfortable one level down, however, and
may not get the up front action she’d need to be the same late player tonight. (7) LARJON LEAH came up a little
short at the end last week after an easy trip from the pole – she’ll need to be that much better (off the re-claim) to
have any big impact from Post 7. (2) LINE EM UP has been struggling for a long time – waiting for better signs
RACE 9 – (1) IM FANCY LIKE had a couple of tough outings (in Ohio) after a sick scratch but her last couple
suggest she’s back on her game – lands in a soft spot for her Hilltop debut, and may be able to capitalize. (4) MARY
KAT was well backed off the drop to 20s last week – she probably should have been able to pick up 2nd , but was still
an improved 3rd – should be able to have a big say here too. (5) TERACITA has become somewhat of a “chronic
disappointer”, who often “figures”, but comes up short – good one for underneath, but a tough one to take on top, at
a short price. (7) ALWAYS B MIMI is a good fit with these, but draws horribly – if there’s anybody that can
magically produce speed in typical “closers”, it’s Bartlett...decent value play if not enamored with the favorites to
her inside. (2) PRINCESS ARONA has been struggling for a while but the good draw may at least put her in play
for a small slice. (6) PALADIO has only 10 career starts, seems to be going in the wrong direction, and draws poorly
as she drops in with older claimers – would need a big price to consider. (8) EVAS SPORTS CZECH has been no
threat lately, and now gets stuck with Post 8. (3) MIKILOB ULTRA was no factor in NW1 in her local debut – feels
a bit overmatched here
RACE 10 – Six horse field but actually a very good race! (6) SHAZAM BLUE CHIP was the pick here last week
and he was able to deliver, at a big overlay 9-1 price – we’ll stay loyal and go with him on top once more...but TRIP
will likely determine the winner in this well matched bunch. (5) FREQUENT IMAGE worked out the two hole trip
last time, shook free in the lane (after #6 took over) and kicked home strong for 2nd – he’s been sharp for weeks, and
could end up in the winner’s circle tonight. (1) REAL WILLEY almost ended ROCK DIAMONDS N long winning
streak 2 back – he cut the mile (for a new barn) last week, but got just a little tired at the end – another new barn
tonight, gets his favorite pilot back, and maybe he can get the job done this time. (2) CENTURY ENDEAVOR has
been right there in this class several times and could end up with a golden trip if the top ones end up duking it out a
bit – not impossible at all. (3) ORLANDO BLUE A had pace finishing from an impossible spot last week after just
missing the week before – another with the chance at the upset with the right pace scenario. (4) JIMMY CONNOR
B would be unlikely against these 5 other sharp ones
RACE 11 – (5) HARPER SEELSTER was a front end jogburger 3 back then turned in two more excellent efforts
when 2 nd in her last pair – she’ll likely be the better price of the two “stickouts”, so we’ll go with HER on top. (2)
FRONDEUR just crushed her rivals on the front end 2 back – she was forced into the two hole last week at 1/5 (by
the longshot rail horse), but remained patient and was an easy winner once more...new barn tonight, but expect
another big effort. (4) JILLIAN JIGGS is winless in 8 local tries but she’s sometimes good for a late rally – decent
one to try for the 3 rd slot. (3) PROVE EM WRONG just hasn’t thrived since landing on the local scene but a good
trip could see her grab a minor share. (1) PLEASURE SEEKER just hasn’t been good in a long time – at least the
rail draw puts her in play for a small slice. (6) CANNERY ROW improved a bit 2 back for new connections, then
was “meh” last week – one of several with a chance at a small piece, depending on trip. (7) BEAUTY OF THE SEA
probably needs an inside draw to be a player at this level. (8) TUAPEKA JESSIE N hasn’t hit board in months
RACE 12 – Solid overall $20K FM claiming division: (3) OURLITTLEMIRACLE changed barns last week and
turned in an 8 hole try that was better than it may look on paper – she gets an important class drop, moves inside,
and could be worth a shot ...even against a few other pretty sharp rivals. (4) REAL LADY SADIE has 2 wins and 3
seconds from her last 5 starts, and moves to another hot barn after last week’s claim – remains a very dangerous
player. (2) PINK RUBY was quickly re-claimed by the barn she had been racing well for since May – she’s hit
board a zillion straight times, and has a big chance to land somewhere on the ticket once more. (1) PHELGON
(28-1) shockingly refused to sit behind the 1/5 stickout last week (despite winning off a pocket trip just 2 weeks
earlier) and was fortunate just to hold 3rd after giving way in the stretch – definitely could land herself a share
tonight with an easy trip from the pole. (6) SHEIKH YABOOTY N moves to yet another new barn after faltering off
the pocket trip last week– she’s been very good for a long time, but tonight’s spot may slow her down a bit. (5)
TYRA MAKES BANK was 1st or 2nd in her first 6 local starts but has been limited to smaller pieces in her last 4
outings – lands in a very tough field, and likely looking at only minor spoils. Both (7) SUNSET SOPH and (8)
MICHELLES JAZZ will really need things to fall apart for any chance to reach from their outside slots