The Empire Report - Thursday, July 22, 2021 - Race Analysis
RACE 1 - (2) FOLLOWTHEWIND N has been racing well in her 4 starts since the claim, despite some
tough trips and tough spots - catches a shaky group this week, and may be able to finally ring up her first
local win of the season. (5) FREE EXCHANGE was good 2 back in her 2nd off the layoff, then drew Post 8
in her last - a live trip would give her a chance to take this. (4) J ROCKIN B raced very well here in her
2020-21 starts - shows a mixed bag of efforts in her recent out of town tries, so we'll see if she can find her
"A Game" returning to Yonkers. (6) IDEAL CLASSIC is a tough mare to predict, as she can charge home
vs. much better one week, then come up completely empty vs. cheaper the next start - has gotten along with
Bartlett in the past, so maybe he can coax one of her better efforts tonight. (1) KEENE OLIVIA has drawn
Posts 7 or 8 in her last 4 local starts, but finally moves all the way inside - she really hasn't been sharp, so
we'll see how much she can perk up tonight. (7) SANDYS BEACH hasn't been sharp for some time, and
the "monster brush" has been missing as well - drops to the basement, but that may be offset by Post 7 --
small piece? (8) QUITE A DELIGHT N throws some solid efforts at this level but is post compromised
tonight - not sure she can reach from this far out. (3) ROCK N ROLL ROSIE doesn't seem sharp enough to
contend with these in her current form.
RACE 2 - (8) YUCATAN PARTY MAN is 0 for 19 to start his career but he's hit board 12X, is sure-footed
and does have enough speed to improve (at worst) at the start here - he'd probably be a standout with a YR
catch driver, but having Karna on board will certainly help his price. (7) KING JIMMY has stayed flat in
all 6 career starts and picked up his maiden victory last start, beating an Excelsior B field here at YR - if
Zeron can get him into a better spot early on, he'll have a chance to land somewhere on this ticket. (5) END
YMION is another who broke his maiden last week, scoring at Chester in 1:59.1 - had been struggling a bit
prior to that, so we'll see if his top notch connections finally have him on the right path. (1) LOTAFAME
TOCLAIM picked up 2 wins from his 5 starts as a 2YO - he makes his 3YO return tonight, draws the pole
with Stratton, but it's hard to gauge just how ready he is off the Monti qualifiers - perhaps the tote board
will offer some clues? (4) SV ROYAL FLUSH inherited a big early lead 2 back in what became just a 2
horse race...and still lost (to #6) - his ability to leave the gate quickly may give him a chance to grab a small
piece of this. (3) CANE GANG is still a work in progress, and has been away for 4 weeks - we'll pass for
tonight, but keep an eye for the future. (2) TBTWELVE was dull in his qualifier, clearly short in his first
start of the year, then made a break last week - waiting on some better signs before hopping on his team. (6)
BIG CHARLIE MORAN was a winner 2 back in a race that completely fell apart, but was rough much of
the way last week before going offstride - draws outside, and we'll stick with others for tonight.
RACE 3 - (1) WESTERN SHOWGIRL looked like a standout heading into her last and while she did get
the job done, she definitely wasn't at her sharpest - steps up in class tonight, but this field is well within her
capabilities as well -- wouldn't be willing to take another VERY low price, but she does remain the one to
beat. (5) SEZANA N paced evenly at the back from Post 8 last week - drops in class, lands in a spot where
Buter can be aggressive, and she's definitely a threat tonight (6) FIRSTUP has been racing well most weeks
vs. similar/better up at "The Ridge" - trainer is having an outstanding 2021 season, and this mare may be
able to make some noise tonight, if the trip goes her way. (3) TOPVILLE ANGELINA was stuck with Post
8 on the off track last week so we'll just give her a pass for that mile - on her best, she can be a player with
these. (7) MILLWOOD BONNIE N has been holding her own (with better) in a few recent starts - not sure
if she'll be able to get involved from out here, but that 20-1 ML does look tempting (2) ALL ABOUT AMY
had good pace when she shook free in the stretch last week, but was disqualified for interfering with a mare
that was already tiring - good draw, but also stepping up in class - maybe a minor share? (4) ROLL WITH
ANGEL wasn't bad in either of her 2 most recent local tries, and returns from PcD off a win over cheaper -
one of many with a chance at a piece of this...with the right trip. (8) FRANSCHOEK was claimed after
winning 3 straight for the "Super Siblings"....then failed to beat a horse in her first try for new connections -
moves to another new barn for tonight, but Post 8 will likely compromise her chances once more.
RACE 4 - (3) CREATIVE VENTURE was sent off at 2/5 in his 2nd start back as a 3YO and was an open
length winner in KY - moves to a barn that frequently improves their new purchases considerably, and we'll
give this guy top billing for his Hilltop debut. (5) VINYASA broke her maiden at Chester on 5/7 then was
3rd in a pair of TSS events - was used hard in her last 2 starts (both from Post 8), and catches a modest field
for her YR debut - very appealing at that 9-1 ML price. (4) CHROME PACKAGE is just 1 for 30, but he's
hit board in 16 of those 29 losses (and is a solid 4-0-2-1 locally) - definitely one to include underneath. (7)
SOUTHWIND RITZ was a dull 5th in her first YR try but was a better 3rd in last, after leaving from Post 7
- we'll see if she can build on that a bit more tonight. (6) INFINITE ZETTE had something wrong here on
6/17 when he just stopped to a walk - bounced right back to win his first career start in PA, but was just a
"meh" 4th returning to YR in last - maybe a minor share? (2) DESTINY BLUE CHIP showed some better
life when 3rd on 6/24 but was scratched from her next, and comes into this having missed 4 weeks - maybe
a small piece? (1) KOKOMO ships in from PcD and appears to have fallen way off form - not sure the rail
will help enough to make her a contender. (8) SOOT HANOVER was unable to get involved from Post 8
last week, and draws that same horrible spot for tonight.
RACE 5 - (1) ACEFORTYFOUR DOME started to improve right after the claim and is really hitting on all
cylinders right now, winning her last pair in impressive fashion - steps up another notch, but looks sharp
enough right now to handle it....chance to make it 3 in a row. (4) FOX VALLEY CHARLIZ came into her
last off a "scr. lame" and "scr. injured"...then proceeded to deliver her best mile in months, delivering the
very impressive "brush and crush" victory - connections double jump her off that win and if she shows up
just as sharp tonight, she can be a serious threat once again. (5) MALNIFICENT got some class relief last
week and was dead game in that first over victory - fits very well with these too, and figures to have a big
say once again. (3) PAIGES GIRL added Lasix last week but couldn't sustain her bid and weakened to 4th -
definitely ok for a piece, but leaning to others for the top spot. (2) GOTTALOVEMYSHADOW raced well
here at the beginning of the year but vs. a bit easier - maybe can follow along close enough to pick up a
small piece. (8) ANNABETH kicked home strong for 4th last week but lands Post 8 once again - will
probably have to wait for a better draw before becoming a serious threat. (7) PETTYCOAT BUSINESS just
hasn't looked sharp lately and is definitely in need of a wake up call...this doesn't feel like the spot for it,
however. (6) CABOWABOCUTTIE finally leveled off after a long string of small pieces, and big prices -
she drops next week, and perhaps will get a look at that time
RACE 6 - (1) BIG BAD SWAN has been racing very well in Monti's highest classes, and now moves from
low profile connections to one of our leading trainers (and gets Andy Miller at the controls) - looking for a
big mile tonight for his new crew. (6) JULA MUSCLE PACK, assuming he continues to behave, seems the
one to knock off - he handled a NW2 field effortlessly on 6/17, then raced very well from a no chance spot
in his Yonkers Trot elim. - may have disliked the off going in NJ last week, but he figures to be a major
threat tonight. (2) SJS LADY LOU made breaks in both local tries, but also showed that she has legitimate
ability - still a work in progress for a barn that has been on fire here, with limited stock. (5) DIFFIDENT
was able to wire this class from Post 7 last start, at a juicy 12-1 price - has a license to be a big threat again,
but is far less appealing as the 5/2 ML favorite! (3) MASSTRO was overbet and a "so so" 4th last week, but
was also racing off a month - could be tighter this time, and is capable of grabbing a small piece. (4)
BRILLIANT BOB shows a pair of "ok" 4ths since arriving from Ohio - seems a notch below the main
players. (7) TEQUILA N ROSES can probably fit in some of the NW4 fields but this bunch is a bit
tougher, and she also draws outside for her YR debut - will just watch this week. (8) BABY MAKER
HANOVER lacked late pop off the good trip last week and will now have to deal with Post 8 - wait for a
better spot to consider
RACE 7 - (3) SURREAL FEELING isn't having AS good a year as her sister Racine Bell, but she IS
having the best season of her own career - has beaten this class here already, remains in top form, and gets a
good draw - should be a decent price, in a tough race. (7) SIESTA BEACH has won 3 straight and has been
a favorite of ours for a long time - getting assigned Post 7 will make things tough on her so while she's
quite capable of extending her streak to 4, don't take too short a price on her from this spot. (1) SEASWIFT
JOY N picked up a win and a 2nd to start off the Matchmaker Series but was scratched in the next leg, then
remained on the shelf until a couple of weeks ago - hasn't been a threat yet, but we may see a much more
serious effort from the pole tonight (maybe check the tote board?) (4) IMPRINCESSGEMMAA broke in
her first start off the barn change but beat a NW15000 field in her next, then NW20000, then knocked off
the outstanding Racine Bell to win the Open - never could involved last week, though, so we'll see if she
bounces right back tonight, or if perhaps she's leveled off a bit. (6) STOWAWAY HANOVER was touted
here as a future "Open Mare" a while back, and she did achieve that status last week (ALMOST winning at
31-1 in a huge effort) - no rail tonight, though and that may slow her down just a bit (5) LOVELY DONNA
has raced well since arriving 3 starts back but may need a little easier spot. (2) FEELIN RED HOT can be a
bit streaky these days and she tired in her last - sticking with others this week.
RACE 8 - (3) DRAGON ROLL has been thriving all year (18-6-4-5), and she recently made the jump from
"NW8PM" to "Open Mare" quite seamlessly - gets major class relief here, draws inside, and looms the one
to beat. (1) MAN DONTFORGET ME went a while without winning here at YR but comes into tonight
riding a three race win streak, and has given every indication that she'll have no trouble stepping up to take
on older mares - should be major threat with the rail draw. (7) JIVE DANCING A is also getting some class
relief after battling better for a long time - the obvious concern is Post 7, but she still has a chance to be
right there late if Dube can work out a manageable trip. (6) NORMANS MADELINE is the "x factor" here
- put together an outstanding series of starts this spring, then tailed off considerably for several weeks -
perked up in a big way in her last, and her barn was on fire the other night...not a bad one to include in
exotics tonight. (4) BETTERB CHEVRON N went through a long dry spell but finally started to come back
around in her last couple - taking a BIG step up tonight, though, and may not be quite sharp enough to be a
threat with these. (5) ANGELS PRIDE gets very brave when she can outrun cheaper mares but usually
doesn't fare as well once she climbs back up the ladder - definitely vulnerable tonight, despite those wins in
her last pair. (2) SHELLIE DE VIE raced well in her last pair but used good trips, in easier fields - may be a
bit overmatched against the top ones in here. (8) CHECKERED PAST has found her better form but does
seem buried against these from Post 8.
RACE 9 - Tough race! (1) WATCH MY LUCK has come back sharp off the layoff, and shown that she can
handle any type of trip - she's taking a double jump in class tonight, but some of the "classier" rivals in here
are a little suspect right now...may be able to pull this off. (3) ANNE BONNEY N gets some class relief
and didn't embarrass herself vs. better - she won with Zeron the last time they paired up (albeit vs. cheaper),
and perhaps history can repeat itself. (4) CLASSY CHAPEL N may be a decent bomb play - was a sharp
3rd in the Preferred just 3 starts back, gets a full pass for her next, then raced evenly from the back in last -
at 15-1 ML, she deserves at least a look. (5) GOLDEN QUEST N will attract plenty of attention here but
she's now 0 for 15 on the season, and hard to back at that 5/2 ML price. (2) ITS MESMERISE N shipped in
off 2 Chester wins and had no problem handling a NW10000 field, cutting an easy, unpressured pace and
winning as she pleased - will have to race much harder to beat these....but that's definitely a possibility (just
not much value as the 2-1 ML favorite). (7) IM VERY SPECIAL seemed like she was getting back to her
top form...but as has happened several times already this year, she regressed before she could get there
(tiring in the pocket last week, with no excuses) - tough assignment from Post 7 tonight. (8) ANN HILL
gets some much needed class relief, but the draw may leave her waiting for a better spot to strut her best
stuff. (6) ROCKIN THE BOYS A has been very consistent lately, but may be hard pressed to find a decent
trip in this evenly matched field.
RACE 10 - (2) STONEBRIDGE SOUL was excellent as a youngster but could only manage one win as a
4YO - seems to be finding her game again at 5, and was sharp wiring the field from Post 7 last week in her
first local start of the year - faces a tougher overall group tonight but should get a good trip, and may be
able to step up and take another. (5) BOLT OF BEAUTY shipped in off a trio of Tioga wins and proved
that she can handle herself against good local mares as well, charging home for 2nd against the easy lead
winner - if she can find a decent trip tonight, she can be a serious threat. (7) JOSSIE JAMES A gets a
meaningful class drop tonight and that may encourage Dube to send her off the car - she's MUCH better
than that 20-1 ML price would suggest! (1) SHES PUKKA N ships in sharp, has plenty of speed from the
rail and will be the likely favorite - she also is winless here over the past 2 seasons (7-0-1-3), and just may
be a bit vulnerable against a few very sharp foes. (4) SPORTS FLIX is a tough call - was razor sharp at
Nfd. before the recent purchase, then was an excellent 2nd upon arrival at YR for her new connections - it
does feel like she may be tailing, though, so it's hard to say if tonight's drop will perk her right up, or if
she'll continue to struggle a bit more. (6) NORTH STAR IDEAL is very good right now and her barn is
going very strong - very tough spot tonight, but could offer some good value (20-1 ML). (3) DEMETER N
steps up off a pair of wins but just doesn't feel like she's one her best game right now - would hardly be a
shock, but we're leaning towards others tonight. (8) YS TALLIA has been in career form lately, but draws
Post 8 off the qualifier and just may have too much work to do from this spot.
RACE 11 - (1) FOCUS POCUS shipped in sharp from Chester and raced a strong mile for 3rd behind a
pair of sharp rivals - he gets to control the action this week and that stamps him as the one to beat...but
there are definitely a couple of legitimate foes in here. (3) MY BOY CHRISTIAN got straightened out in a
hurry after joining this barn in June and his work in PA has been excellent - if he can get around the Hilltop
Oval, he'll be a major player. (8) SO LONG HANOVER is another that has been doing excellent work in
PA and the only knock is his terrible draw - he will be a good price, though, if you think Miller will be able
to get him into the hunt without over-using him. (4) HIGH GEAR NO FEAR just hasn't been nearly as
good since racing resumed in Canada in June, and ships down off a pair of poor efforts - on his best he'd be
a player here, so perhaps check the tote board for some clues (2) YANKEE GIRLFRIEND hasn't fared so
well since moving up to NW6 but does draw inside tonight, so perhaps that'll help him grab a minor share.
(5) SWISS HOUSE ONFIRE and (7) CAVALIER GEORGE are two more that really preferred the
competition down at the NW4 level - not sure either can be major threats tonight. (6) BAZILLIONAIRE is
still winless in 2021 and really may need to find an easier spot.
RACE 12 - (8) MY RUEBE STAR N may be worth a stab in the finale - she was 6-5-0-1 here to begin her
U.S career but flopped badly in the Matchmaker, and basically fell apart when the entire barn started to
stumble - several of her stablemates have started to come around again, and this mare was "sneaky good"
returning off the layoff last week - hopefully Bartlett will give her a chance to succeed (at a nice price). (3)
MONICA GALLAGHER made her first start for a new trainer a winning one last week - when she's on her
game, she's shown that she can beat these....legit chance to make it two straight. (4) SHECANDANCE N's
comeback seemed to be stalling until she grabbed a pair of wins at PcD, then was a solid rallying 3rd back
at YR in her last - definitely belongs somewhere on your tickets. (1) BETALADY had a sharp win here
earlier in the year, but also struggled in two other starts - not sure she really likes racing over the half that
much, and she'll probably take plenty of $$ here...could be vulnerable. (2) AMERICAN DELIGHT N is
5-3-2-0 since coming to America, but those miles were at Tioga - the GUESS is that she'll fit ok here too...
but we'll find out for sure tonight. (7) SHES NUN BETTOR N was sent off at 1/5 for her YR debut and
basically picked up $18K for a training mile - she's officially dropping in class tonight, but this field is
actually better (overall) than the one she beat last week - may have a little trouble overcoming Post 7. (5)
BRONZE OVER N has been sharp for weeks but moves up off the claim and may struggle a bit against
some of these tough ladies (6) CASIES BELIEVER seems a bit overmatched in this solid group.