Tonight's Pick 5 starts with $10,000 seed money provided by the SOA of NY, and there
The Empire Report - Thursday, April 6, 2023 - Race Analysis
Tonight's Pick 5 starts with $10,000 seed money provided by the SOA of NY, and there
will be a $25K guaranteed pool - jump on in!
RACE 1 - Strange opener as not one but TWO mares have been thrown in with the boys: (3) MIKEY CAM
DEN drops down from the much tougher $40/50K claimers and the last time he was down at this level he
came up 2nd best to the currently VERY sharp OURRHYTHMNBLUES N - can definitely be handled
aggressively here, and we'll give him the edge over his main rival. (2) GENTLEMANJIM II IE was a solid
2nd best two and three back (to the SAME horse, at 2 different tracks!) then raced ok from an impossible
spot last week - he's clearly the main danger but since he's 0 for 17 at YR, we'll give the nod to the top
choice. (5) JKS CHAMP picked a bad spot to leave last week and got parked as a result - his current form
is "iffy" and while he does fit with these on his best effort, it's hard to consider him on top at that strange
9/5 ML price. (6) IMSTAYNALIVE may be a little tighter in his 3rd try off the layoff but the poor post
may have him looking at only a minor share tonight. (4) BETTERB CHEVRON N is one of the 2 mares in
here - makes her 2nd start off the layoff and we'll just observe, for now. (2) DA GHETTO WIZARD is not
a mare, but his DRIVER is (and is also his trainer) - maybe he can tow along for some scraps? (7) SOUTH
WIND JAVA hasn't been sharp for a long time, and is a mare vs. boys from Post 7 - prefer others
RACE 2 - (3) HEY LIVVY made an odd decision to sit in last week and that choice may have cost her a
victory (she rallied from 5th to come up a neck shy in 2nd) - we'll give her the tepid nod tonight (thanks to
the draw), but this race could go a few different ways. (4) HL REVADON is off to an excellent start in '23
but he's winless in his last 4, and really threw a dud last week - could easily rebound with a big one tonight
- but hard to take a short price hoping that's the case. (1) GREY was trapped in the lane with no chance to
trot last week so don't hold that 4th place finish against her - she raced well (in this class) in her prior 2
starts, and may end up part of the equation tonight. (5) CREDIT CON has been a solid performer for
months so while it was no surprise to see her win last week (the trip went her way), the 36-1 payoff WAS
pretty shocking - gets stuck outside now, but since it's only a 5 horse field that may not really hurt her -
possible. (2) HERCULISA debuts for a new barn after 5 months off - she does have plenty of talent, and
the qualifier looks good....check the tote board?
RACE 3 - (4) TAP ME BLUE CHIP had the misfortune of catching a fiery 1:54.4 mile in her first start in 4
months but did hang in through a quick 3/4s before (understandably) tiring - she figures to be a decent price
here, and a couple of the favorites could be a little risky - may be worth a small stab tonight. (6) CREDAR
ENA took a while to get rolling last week but did finish up well to be a close 2nd - he stays trotting all the
time, and is another in here that could be worth using. (1) HEADOVERBOOTS AS had a win and a 2nd
from 6 local starts last year but also had a couple of miscues - returns to YR after picking up FIVE 2nds
this year across the river (from 8 starts) and is a very logical threat...does figure to be overbet, though. (3)
SENNA is also shipping in from NJ showing good recent form - in his only local try, however, he looked
one inch from a break the entire way and did indeed jump it off eventually - another logical, but possibly
risky player. (5) AVACAKES looked a bit better in her 2nd off the layoff and Gingras does go with her over
#4 - wouldn't be a huge shock (if things fall apart a bit). (2) HILLOFA KNOCKOUT has a couple of "ok"
tries recently - chance for some minor spoils. (7) MATT SO SURE likely needs a much better post to have
any real impact
RACE 4 - (4) BELTANE A is still winless on the year but he's finished closely behind much better than
these on several recent occasions - feels like a spot for the classy veteran to pick up a "W"! (8) POSH ONT
HE BEACH A was sent off at 76-1 last week despite a significant barn change and he raced very well to
pick up 3rd - not sure he'll have as much success getting into the hunt tonight but at that 15-1 ML price, he's
worth at least a look in this field. (1) DARLINGS DRAGON has enjoyed some success here in the past and
looks ready to roll off his qualifier - his owner hands over the lines to Lachance tonight, and it would be no
surprise to see him come up with a big effort. (3) EL JACKO N hasn't threatened in his last 3 starts but he
definitely is racing better since the barn change - can see him grabbing a piece tonight, with the right trip.
(2) MOMENTSTHATMATTER hasn't been on his best game lately - draws well, but will need to turn his
game up a bit to be a serious player here. (5) SWAGASAURUSREX gets a little better post tonight and
shouldn't be as far back - possibility for 3rd/4th with the right trip. (6) AMERICAN WAY just hasn't
clicked at all since changing hands back in January - looking for some better signs from him. (7) WF EEY
ORE went a sharp mile to win as the favorite here on 9/5 (arriving from Ohio) but it's been all downhill
since then - sticking with others
RACE 5 - (2) PERRON debuted for a new barn last week and did finish with some "sneaky trot" (from an
impossible spot) in just his 2nd start of the year - moves inside, and seems worth a stab in a race with no
standouts. (4) BARN HALL "figures" every week but is now 0 for 7 locally on the year, after going just 1
for 9 at YR last year - he has a legitimate chance, but that 9/5 ML price suggests there could be some value
playing against him, in the top slot. (5) IM THE MUSCLE hasn't been able to replicate those back to back
1:55 wins he registered recently over cheaper, but it's not like he's been bad, either - he's playable here if the
price is right, and surely worth using if you think he may be leaving the gate tonight. (7) PROMISE FOR
LIFE is winless in his 8 local starts but does have 4 seconds and a pair of 3rds- playable underneath, even
from out here. (6) LOOK IN MY EYES may never get into the mix tonight but he does drop down to a
kinder level, and his barn is actually off to a pretty good start this year (1st or 2nd in 13 of 32 starts, often at
a good price) - good one for longshot fans. (1) LADY JETER found a soft spot last week and was able to
come up with a game victory - this spot is much tougher, but we'll see if she gained enough confidence
from that win to be a contender here too. (3) KINDA LUCKY LINDY regressed in his 2nd start of the year
last week - we'll look for better signs before hopping on his team.
RACE 6 - Strong field top to bottom! (4) NO MAS DRAMA was a blowout winner 2 back and that mile is
sandwiched between a pair of close losses to the talented OUTSIDE THE FIRE - she loses her regular pilot
tonight (Bongiorno drives his own, #6) but Marohn has actually done good things with her in the past - gets
the narrow nod in a field full of possible winners! (1) WARRIOR ONE broke leaving last week but was
sharp out of town prior to that, and has rebounded quickly from the rare miscue in the past - Yannick's own
can be a major threat here. (5) STORMY KROMER is clearly the "x factor" tonight - he's an outstanding
OPEN trotter most of the time, but comes into tonight off a weak try and sick scratch - it's anybody's guess
as to what we'll get from him tonight. (3) SMALLTOWNTHROWDOWN was a sharp off the pace 2nd two
back (after crushing cheaper the week before), then never saw any clearance in the stretch last week - he
may prefer to be in a bit cheaper these days, but he's still worth a look here if the price is right. (6) ON
HIGHER GROUND has been razor sharp for weeks, and may have been even closer last time if not caught
behind a wall of horses in the stretch - a contested pace increases his chances significantly (tough spot). (2)
ALL CHAMPY continues to thrive in every barn, with any trip, in any class - he loses his regular pilot
(Dube, to #5) but gets a pretty decent replacement (Bartlett) - would be no surprise if he was able to grab
himself a piece. (7) MISSISSIPPI STORM is being listed on the bottom here but obviously it would be no
surprise to see a horse with his resume do much better than that
RACE 7- 1 1/16th mile- BIG 10 horse field, and not a lot of form between all of them! (4) ELLEOFADELI
is the very reluctant selection....she certainly hasn't been sharp lately but she does drop, and can probably
go right to the top in a field that seems to lack any gate speed - Bartlett may just be able to steal this one.
(10) ALWAYS B MIMI also drops, does fit very well with these, but gets stuck with Post 10 - her chances
would go WAY up if Brennan starts behind an actual LEAVER (rather than behind #2....I believe that's
allowed) - willing to include if the price is right. (6) ASHTINI faces a very unpredictable trip from this spot
but she raced well last week, has some back class, and MAY be able to be a threat with the right journey.
(5) DISARONNO HILL hasn't been good for weeks but figures to wake up sooner or later - if Holland can
get her off to a decent start, maybe she can be a player. (2) THUNDRA throws more bad ones than good
but could grab a piece of this IF she shows up in one of her good moods. (1) BROOKDALE JESSIE hasn't
come close to finding the winner's circle (at YR) but does grab some smaller pieces - maybe tonight too?
(3) PRAY THE ROSARY hasn't been a threat in 2 tries since returning from Monti but hasn't been terrible
either - one of many that CAN grab a share IF the trip goes in their favor. (7) COOLNCALCULATING N
has been racing well enough for a chance at a piece here but has an unaggressive pilot in a 10 horse field -
good chance she'll get lost near the back. (9) BETTORSHIGHLIGHT N starts from the back row and that
could result in a traffic filled trip. (8) SHOTGUN PERSUASION put in a good bid last week but got pretty
sideways on the final turn and that was that - will be hard for her to get a trip from Post 8
RACE 8 - Another tough race: (4) VELOCITY MCSWEETS hasn't been on our radar for some time but
she did take a little $$ last week and actually finished with good pace (not usually her style) - it's possible
that she's ready to turn things around...and the price should be decent if you want to give her a shot here. (1)
CHELSKI is as unreliable as they come but she did get along very well with Zeron last week (kicked home
strong to just miss), and draws the pole tonight - possibility. (5) TALL POPPY N is just 1 for 22 here over
the last 2 years but that win came 4 starts back, on the front end - this may be a spot where Dube can try to
send here again, and that 20-1 ML price does have appeal. (3) GINGER TREE LIZ is capable of tackling
much better than these when even close to "right", but she's just one of many from this barn that's
struggling right now - we'll see if reuniting with Bartlett (and dropping in class) can result in a better effort.
(2) VEL DONNA normally is more of a "bottom feeder" but that win 2 back was sharp, as was last week's
close 3rd place finish - may be sharp enough at the moment to contend for a piece. (8) COWGIRL LILLY
brings a 2 race winning streak into this but she's up in class and stuck with Post 8 - would want a pretty
good price to consider her (on top) from out here. (6) HEAVENISSOFARAWAY drops a bit and may be a
good fit with this bunch - hard to really gauge her form right now, and this is also a tough post. (7)
SARAHS LILLY has been away since December and lands Post 7 - just watching, for now
RACE 9 - (5) HIGHLAND MOWGLI has been less than stellar out of town but returns to his favorite track
-- where he was a winner vs. BETTER in his last 2 starts, including an outstanding 8 hole score - we'll look
for him to perk right up back at The Hilltop. (2) BARRY BLACK drops to an easier spot, lands inside, and
could definitely be primed for a big effort- decent value horse to consider (8) SWEET SOUL DAVID loses
Brennan to the top choice but he's good right now and Dube isn't afraid to send one out of there - another
with a chance to add some value to the ticket. (4) KASHA V has been in a pretty good groove lately -
would look better one or two levels down, but may be sharp enough right now to still contend for a piece
here. (6) GEMOLOGIST doesn't draw too well tonight but it's still better than last week (Post 8) - gets to
drop a notch, and he may be able to grab a piece if the trip goes his way. (3) WINDSONG PIONEER is
climbing back up the class ladder on the strength of 2 wins, a 2nd and a 3rd from his last 4 starts - may find
a few of these a little too tough. (1) TOP ME OFF was a big "go" last week but weakened after cutting the
mile - faces tougher here, and the rail may not be enough to make him a serious player. (7) QUEEN OF
ALL makes her first start in almost 4 months and may need a start