Friday Empire Report

soaofny • December 17, 2021

The Empire Report - Friday, December 17, 2021 - Race Analysis

RACE 1 - (4) LA TOMCAT was struggling vs. cheaper at Hoosier but jogged in his 2 starts at The

Meadows after being purchased by very crafty connections - will face even tougher tonight in his YR

debut, but this crew has shipped in too many winners to not give him a shot. (5) FRONTIER ROLLO

continues to get sharper for his current connections, and should be a nice fit with these - getting Bartlett on

board can only help his chances. (3) SCHWARTZ BROS PAT was a steady 3rd at this level in his local

debut 3 back - just ignore his next (horrible trip), and he was a solid rallying 4th in his last - the right trip

puts him right in the thick of this. (1) MIDNIGHT REBEL was able to hang on for the victory in a NW2

race last week to double his previous win total (he's now 2 for 36) - barn is mired in a 3 for 60 slump at the

moment, and this guy figures to be overbet while also facing tougher tonight - better value with others. (7)

MR KELLY wasn't up for the tough trip last week, but he is a proven player at this level - could offer some

value in exotics if able to bounce back. (6) BARRYWHITE HANOVER was really bothered on the final

turn last week or could have been a bit closer - tough spot tonight, though. (2) WOODMERE ALVIN broke

in his only local start, then raced evenly at Chester last week - jury still out on this guy. (8) AIR GUITAR

doesn't figure to get close from all the way out here.


RACE 2 - (1) MISTER HAT has hit board in 5 of his 10 local starts and that includes a couple of wins - he

was an excellent 2nd last week, and draws the pole in a shaky field of 20s tonight - gets the call. (4) KIMA

NI N will attract plenty of $$ making his first start for a barn that wins 1/3 of their races - on the flip side,

he's just 1 for 35 this year, and hasn't been 1st or 2nd in 12 local starts...respect his chances, but hard to take

a very short price on him. (2) VERGEOFGREATNESS N has shown that he can tow along and finish well

off easy trips - ok for exotics. (8) SULLIVAN hasn't been a threat in 3 local starts but he does get a class

drop and a few in here just aren't very good right now - maybe can grab a small piece at a big price? (5)

UNDERTAKER has done well for his current connections since the 10/15 claim but vs. softer - hard to say

if he can hold his own with these too. (6) NAGLE has some decent form at Plainridge but his (new) barn

has been ice cold here lately - prefer others. Both (3) TIGERS WAY and (7) MAJOR BUCKS have fallen

way off their games.


RACE 3 - Tough race: (6) ROCKIN JUKEBOX paced home powerfully to take his local debut 2 back,

then missed by a nose to a sharp winner in last - if they mix things up a bit up front, maybe he can show up

late at a decent price. (2) FOOLISH PROPHET has raced well in his handful of local starts, and that

includes a 2nd from Post 7 last week - gets major post relief, and should be right in the thick of things

tonight. (3) PERFECTBOY HANOVER was an excellent 3rd two back, then just got a little weak at the

end in his last after pacing a BIG 3rd quarter to take over from the free-wheeling leader - more than capable

of getting his picture taken tonight. (5) HEART ON MY SLEEVE won as the favorite off the class drop 2

back, then was a steady 3rd last week - capable, for sure. (1) KEYSTONE NOLAN was last week's upset

winner, doing a nice job NOT bottoming out when about a dozen lengths back in the "pocket" to the half,

then tripping out to win at the end - prefer others this week, but can't say that he's impossible from this spot.

(4) SAILBOAT HANOVER finally behaved AND functioned 2 back and scored the form reversing victory

- unfortunately, instead of building off that effort he ended up reverting to bad habits, and made a break in

his last - hard to know what we'll get from him tonight. (8) HOOSIER SHARK was no factor in NJ in his

first try for a new barn and lands Post 8 for his YR debut - perhaps a check of the tote board can help? (7)

WELL DONE SON has been tailing, and now has to contend with Post 7 as well.


RACE 4 - (1) CLASS SIX had been struggling but looked much better 2 back (for a new barn), then built

off that improved effort with the win last week - draws the pole tonight, and we'll stick with him. (4) LETT

UCERIPRITAA was a winner as the odds on choice 2 back but that victory is sandwiched between a pair

of odds-on losses (one 2nd and one 3rd) - clearly a threat to come out on top here, but just not a lot of value

using him on top. (5) SEAFARER tired badly as the favorite 2 back after being used hard early but

rebounded with the perfect trip win last week - logical player again, and belongs in exotics. (3) APEX SEE

LSTER hit the wire interest from a hopeless spot last week and now gets post relief - decent value horse to

include underneath. (2) STARK HANOVER moves to a new barn after failing to show anything in 3 starts

for his last barn - we'll see if the change of scenery helps. (6) HEARTLANDBANYSBRO used a nice trip

to pick up a 3rd last week...maybe an easy trip can help him land a minor share tonight? (7) DERECHO

hasn't been able to get it done since dropping to 20s and may need some more class relief before we see his

best. (8) LOTTERY WINNER broke in his local debut and now is stuck with Post 8.


RACE 5 - (2) CAPTAIN HILL is a very legitimate player at this level - didn't really have a trip he could

work with last week (off the drop), but may be able to upset these if he lands on a better journey tonight. (6)

BUGGER BRUISER was a very game front end winner last week and has been 1st or 2nd in 7 of his 13

local starts this year - definitely a chance he can repeat. (4) BEGINNERS LUCK was no factor last time but

he's been 1st or 2nd in half of his 36 starts this year and he's listed at 15-1 ML - deserves at least a look! (8)

FASHIONONTHEBEACH was all out to just hang on last week and faces a potentially tough trip from

Post 8 tonight - since he's likely to be overbet, he may not be a bad one to take a shot against. (5) TASTE

OF HISTORY is 0 for 15 at YR for the year but almost pulled off the 18-1 upset two back (vs. #8) and his

overall recent form has been better - chance for a piece. (3) ARI ALLSTAR can still pick up pieces when

things go his way - maybe 3rd? (1) CHACHIN HANOVER tired from the pocket last week and just hasn't

shown up in way too many of his starts this year. (7) WE THINK ALIKE was aggressively handled 2 back

and almost pulled off a 24-1 shocker - no factor in most of his other recent tries, though, and also has to

contend with a terrible post.


RACE 6 - (1) WET MY WHISTLE has been super in all 5 local starts and comes into tonight riding a 3

race win streak -she'll have to face older now, but it really shouldn't matter....looks to be a very short priced

winner for the 4th straight week. (3) HALO ITS ME hadn't been on her best game but rallied well for 2nd

last week, and may be the one to complete the exacta again tonight. (6) DRAZZMATAZZ was a close 4th

here 2 back with Kakaley on board, then won the Freehold Preferred last week - decent value horse to use

underneath. (4) STEALING was a close 3rd exiting the Amateur races 2 back, then made a nice recovery

for 3rd last week despite an early miscue - moves to a new barn for tonight, and may be able to pick up a

small piece. (7) CASINO CUTIE IT used a ground saving trip to pick up a 4th from Post 8 last week and is

definitely feeling pretty good these days - not sure she'll be able to find a manageable trip from this spot,

however. (2) WINDSONG PIONEER likes to be on the lead, vs. cheaper - this really isn't a great spot for

him. (8) BAZILLIONAIRE has picked up pieces at this level several times, but will be hard pressed to do

so from Post 8. (5) OOH RAH tired badly after a first over attempt last week - think he needs an easy trip in

an easier field to be a player right now.


RACE 7 - (1) MAJESTIC KIWI N was no good 2 starts back (off a sick scratch) but was much better in his

last, and now draws the pole for a hot barn - a good trip will give him a good chance here. (5) IN THE

HUDDLE has a win and three 2nds from his 5 starts in this barn - very logical threat, but note that he's

pretty camera shy before falling in love at a short price. (2) COACH CAL wasn't up for a tough 8 hole trip

last week but had been in fine form at this level for some time - at 15-1 ML, it would be hard to not include

him on your tickets. (6) CARRACCI HANOVER drops back down to the level he beat on 10/22 and has

license to come up with a better effort - would at least consider including underneath. (8) RANSOM DEM

AND was holding his own vs. 20s for a longtime, though mostly settling for smaller pieces - will surely

appreciate the class drop, but unfortunately that's likely to get offset by the poor draw - keep an eye for next

time. (3) PICKLED PREACHER won at Chester off the claim on 11/7 but has been declining ever since -

will need to be much better in his YR return to be any kind of player. (4) ASTON HILL DAVE 1 for 32 this

year, and 3 for 56 over the last two seasons - prefer others. (7) NOX VEGAS BLUECHIP is one of the

most camera shy horses to race here over the past few years so it was somewhat of a surprise to see him

claimed 2 back - finished up the track in his first start for the new barn, and is hard to recommend here.


RACE 8 - (2) ETHAN T HANOVER was sent off favored in this class from Post 7 last week but made an

unexpected break at the start - came back to catch the pack, and actually could have been closer at the end

if not for being caught behind stretch traffic- a clean effort should allow him to make amends tonight. (1)

MY BOY CHRISTIAN has shown that he can contend at this level from the inside, and he can definitely be

part of the equation here - decent chance to land somewhere on the ticket from this spot. (8) ROCK OF

CASHEL is used to facing much better, but will have to find a way to overcome Post 8 - more than willing

to include him in exotics as long as the price is fair. (3) CAVILL HANOVER tripped out to beat this class 4

starts back, but has struggled vs. much better in his last 3 - we'll see if the class relief can perk him back up.

(5) LIFETIME ROYALTY generally needs to be in a bit cheaper but he did pick up a 3rd at this level last

week, and may be able to squeeze out a small piece again tonight. (6) IT AINT THE WHISKEY was facing

better here before heading upstate for his last 3 starts - not sure he's sharp enough right now to contend,

even at this lower level. (7) LEVITATION has just one start in the last 5 weeks and his overall form seems

off, in general - prefer to just watch tonight from this tough spot. (4) KANDY SWEET was able to steal

one on the front end last week, hanging on (vs. much easier) despite a :30.2 final quarter - that's not going

to cut it against these.


RACE 9 - (2) SKYWAY VICTOR beat this class as the odds on choice earlier this week, and gets another

crack at it because he was still eligible at the time of entry - he's still the one to beat tonight. (4) HEAVENS

GAIT has been improving a bit, coinciding with class drops, and finally escaping all those horrific draws -

probably the main danger as he drops once again. (1) WALTER MITTY was a solid 2nd from the pocket 2

back, but weakened off an easy trip in last - chance for a nice piece if the "good" version shows up tonight.

(3) WAVES OF FIRE A is inconsistent, but does throw some good efforts - could be a decent value horse to

use in exotics. (5) BETTING EXCHANGE is camera shy for sure, and he's moving up in class off a pair of

2nds - maybe he can take home a small piece? (6) OUR MAX PHACTOR N really wasn't that good when

2nd here on 11/1, and has done little in his starts since then - needs to pick up his game. (7) PEMBROKE

JOEY was good here earlier in the year, but seems a bit below these right now.


RACE 10 - (5) AMIGO VOLO certainly took to the Hilltop Oval in his first try over the track, burying his

rivals with a bruising 1:52.4 victory....setting a World Record for 4YO geldings on a half mile track in the

process (while missing the all age track record by 1/5th of a second) - he's moving up in class but if he

races like he did last week, it won't matter. (3) SECRET BRO has been picking up pieces at this top level,

and was pretty good when 3rd last week - barn is having what is probably their worst month ever (3 for last

60), but maybe can end the year on a better note? (4) HL REVADON stalled first over for a couple of starts

but was pretty good finishing last week from an impossible spot - not a bad week to use him underneath.

(6) LEAN HANOVER had been good for weeks but took no $$ last time, & just sat in the back throughout

- most of his other recent efforts would give him a chance at a piece here, though. (7) WARRIOR ONE has

been 2nd for 5 consecutive weeks, and is obviously sharp - may end up with a trip that'll be hard to

overcome from this spot, however. (2) BARRY BLACK definitely prefers to be in a little cheaper, although

the inside draw may help him pick up a small piece. (1) KASHA V has had a very solid year, so it's nice

that he'll at least get a taste of the Open before the season ends....may be looking forward to dropping back

down, though!


RACE 11 - (7) LACHIE MAGUIRE N went through a rough patch this fall but is back behaving again, and

just missed in a $50K claimer here 3 starts back - definitely can leave here (and find a good early spot), and

seems like a pretty good value play. (4) LISBURN looked like his first over bid stalled out on the final turn

last week but found renewed life into the stretch and was a solid 3rd place finisher - very legit threat here

on his best game. (1) REDBANK BLAZE A caught a sloppy track off a sick scratch last start so well just

excuse that (weak) effort - anything close to his best would put him right in the hunt here. (3) WHOS

BETTER steps up after beating lesser in his YR return - he's a possibility, but figures to be overbet with no

guarantee that he can race as well against these much tougher foes. (5) PEPPER GUY hasn't been "bad",

but he hasn't been a serious threat in some time - maybe can rally for a piece with the right trip? (8) SO

MANY ROADS landed on a pocket trip in a soft field last week and knew just what to do - this is clearly a

much more difficult spot, but he MAY be able to rally for a piece if a few things go his way. (2) IWONTD

OTHATAGAIN fits okay with these on his best. but he pulled up with some issue on 12/1 and his 2

subsequent qualifiers don't really suggest that a big effort will be coming tonight. (6) RETOUR AU JEU

was an ok 3rd with softer last time, but may find himself unable to get involved against these.


RACE 12 - Very good race to end the 2021 racing season! (2) HAYEK is a much better horse from OFF

the pace, and comes into tonight off a powerful win 2 back, followed by a 2nd in last week's blazing World

Record mile - faces other sharp rivals tonight, but we'll still give him the edge. (1) FANATIC was off 3

weeks to his last but still only lost by about a length in the Open - drops down to the level he beat on 11/5,

and should be a major player once more. (4) MOSTINTERESTINGMAN has enjoyed several excellent

seasons for his connections but 2021 was his best, with 9 wins and $167 on his card - goes for win #10

tonight, and there's a chance he could get it. (3) HILL OF A HORSE was off for 3 months but still hung in

well for 4th in that wicked 1:52.4 mile - should be even tighter now, and would be no surprise to see him

win at this level. (5) NEW HEAVEN is another in here that's tough as nails, and is enjoying an outstanding

season - may be a tough spot for him to come out on top, but a good piece is well within reach. (8) YANKS

DUGOUT has been excellent since joining this barn in late October, but may have trouble overcoming this

spot in a field as strong as this one. (6) HUNTING AS seems a bit overmatched with these, and will be

coming from well out of it - wait for a better spot. (7) FULL RIGHTS was able to grab his first win in a

while last week thanks to a perfect trip vs. much easier - seems unlikely that he can replicate that kind of

effort against these, though.

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