The Empire Report – Monday, February 5, 2024 – Race Analysis
RACE 1 – (5) COMMANDING OFFICER was sent off at 2-1 (from Post 8) in his local debut (new barn, 3 months
off) and was a front end, wrapped up winner – he steps up to face tougher but acted like a horse that was ready to
tackle better...his barn has also heated up quickly after a slowish start to start of the new meet! (3) TWIN B HEART
THROB was an excellent 7 hole 3rd behind a pair of Open-types 2 back then simply had no prayer after having to
retreat to the back last week – look for a much bigger effort tonight. (1) BUDDY HILL just missed last week and
has more than enough class to handle the class jump, starting from the pole – a live trip makes him a threat to land in
the exotics. (4) NINETEENTH MAN A was no factor last week but he’s capable of better – decent value horse to
use underneath. (6) BURNHAM BOY N was a steady 4th in his first start of the season but disappointed a bit when
only able to finish 2nd last week – the draw does him no favors tonight. (2) SAMHARA N used a rail skimming trip
to pull off the upset last week – won’t be as easy against this tougher crew. (7) BENHOPE RULZ N has started the
year in fine form but faces an uphill battle starting from Post 7. (8) OZONE BLUE CHIP seems buried out here
RACE 2 – (5) COVERED BRIDGE certainly earned a rest after his 18 win, $528K ’23 season but the 8YO seems
content to continue showing up for work, winning in Canada on 1/13 then returning home and taking the local Open
on 1/22 (jogging from Post 8) – remains the one to beat, but wouldn’t say he’s a “cinch'' tonight. (1) COACHES CO
RER saw his VERY long winning streak finally snapped last week, but it took a HUGE effort from the beastly
SIMON SAYS HANOVER (:26.4 final quarter) to edge him out – should be the main danger for a barn that has
been 1st or 2nd in an unfathomable 30 of 53 starts to start off the new meet! (4) LEONIDAS A can never be counted
out in a short field like this but he’s been away for 2 months and would be asking a lot for him to be ready to beat
the top two. (3) WHATS STANLEY GOT A is feeling good again and came up 2nd best to #5 last time – may not be
as fortunate tonight, however. (2) GROOVY JOE ended the year with a win then came out on top in his “23 return –
but this is a MUCH tougher assignment
RACE 3 – Good race: (3) POINTOMYGRANSON is riding a 3 race winning streak and is just a nose shy of being
4 in a row – he moves to another top barn for tonight, and is one of a few sharp players with a chance to take this,
depending on trip. (1) SAILBOAT HANOVER was a good looking winner in his first start of the year then finished
right behind the top choice last week – he was claimed by a familiar barn, though now with “brother” listed rather
than “sister” – we’ll see if the same success continues. (6) RJ SPORTS IMAGE shook free up the cones last week
but just missed to a rival with better momentum – he may be able to loop to the top (despite Post 6) and as noted,
last year’s leading trainer is actually doing even BETTER (so far) in 2024 than he did in an incredible 2023 season –
hard to leave off the ticket. (2) WICHITA LINEMAN hasn’t had much chance in his last few – this is his best spot in
a while, and a mild upset is not out of the question. (4) OSTRO HANOVER was able to wire an easier bunch last
week but will need things to get pretty testy up front for a chance to repeat. (5) TUFFENUFTOWEARPINK seems
up against it starting from a tough spot in a such a solid field
RACE 4 – Another tough race: (4) FULSOME was sent off at 15-1 last time (despite being in good form) and
rallied up the cones crisply late to be a close 3rd– he should still be a decent price tonight, and perhaps Gingras can
find him a winning trip? (5) SHAKESPEARE came into his last having won 6 of his previous 8 starts but just didn’t
bring his best effort – he was claimed that night, and could easily bounce right back for his new connections. (1)
TWIN B DE LUXE started last year with a win and a 2nd here but then was scratched lame and was on the shelf for a
long time – he’s been racing himself back into shape across the river, and may be ready for a top effort in his YR
return. (2) UP THE CREEK had no stretch pop 2 back but came charging through the lane last week to score at 10-1
– can be a big player here too IF he brings his best. (3) POUND FOR POUND has been “ok”, but his most recent
wins have come vs. easier – leaning towards others for the top spot. (6) STONEBIRDGE REX showed up ready off
the hiatus and scored the 24-1 shocker last week – he’s only listed on the bottom here because of the draw!
RACE 5 – (4) AS ALWAYS was wildly overbet arriving from NJ but had no trouble delivering at five cents on the
dollar (with the runner up coming back himself to a blowout win the next week) – he’s stepping up tonight, but this
is an overall weakish $40K claiming field – still deserves top billing, but you can count on him being overbet once
more. (6) SAN DOMINO A hit board in his last pair despite a couple of tough trips – feels like the main threat
should the top one be unable to deliver. (3) GINGER TREE PETE came around quickly after recently moving to this
barn – faces a bit tougher, but Bongiorno should be a good pilot for a horse that often needs motivating – wouldn’t
shock. (1) HEART ON MY SLEEVE used an easy trip from the pole to be 3rd last week and may be able to take
home another small slice tonight. (2) WAR DAN DELIGHT N would probably like to be in a bit easier but the good
draw at least puts him in line for minor scraps. (7) PINEBUSH LIFESAVER isn’t bad right now but will probably
have a tough time trying to leave from this spot, and that could put him too far back to really threaten. (5) PRETTY
HANDSOME seems to need to be in a bit easier to thrive these days. (8) MICKY GEE N is struggling right now
RACE 6 – (3) TAKE A CLOSER LOOK never got involved in his first local try (from Post 8) but was handled
more aggressively in his last and almost grabbed 2nd – may be able to trip out and score a mild upset tonight. (1)
URIEL BLUE CHIP does have some ability but he does seem to struggle to get around the Hilltop Oval – the rail
draw will really help his cause and he has a very real chance to take advantage and win from this spot...but he’s also
sure to be overbet. (2) FOX VALLEY PATRIOT was well backed at the windows last week and gave the stickout
winner a bit of a test at the top of the lane before tiring in the stretch – he still lasted for 2nd, and should be in the
hunt for another good piece tonight. (6) BIG DREAM FELLA has been a weekly player with these but his weak
finishes have cost him in most starts – he goes for his 3rd barn in 3 weeks, and we’ll see if this crew has any better
luck at getting a better final 1/8th out of him. (4) DEMPSEY HANOVER was an all out 3rd in his local try and that
was 7 weeks ago – his barn has been clicking lately, but he may be at a conditioning disadvantage tonight. (5)
BOOM TOWN BOY wasn’t bad 2 back but he failed to build off that last week – probably looking at minor spoils
only. (7) FINALLY FRIDAY tends to lag early – starting from Post 7 isn’t going to help
RACE 7 – (1) FAMILY RECIPE wasn’t bad in his last couple – he was simply in bad spots, vs. much better – look
for a much more aggressive try from this kinder spot, with a chance to come out on top. (5) ROLLING WITH SAM
moves up in class (and loses Brennan) but he’s in his best form in ages, and may be able to be a threat with the right
trip – consider if the price is juicy enough. (2) CARABAO A is a bit of an enigma – he was poised to grab 3rd in the Open 2 back before derailed by a costly stretch miscue, but then really disappointed in the stretch last week after
looking like an easy 2nd best to the top of the lane – suppose he’ll put it all together one of these weeks! (3) FEARF
UL INTENT had a very good season here last year and returns from a 3 week vacation off a nice qualifier behind the
classy MIKALA – hard to know if he’ll be tight enough to win right off the bat, however. (8) FUNATTHEBEACH
N looked super demolishing cheaper 2 back but was unable to overcome a tougher trip vs. better last week – it’s
hard to ever discount the classy 10YO, but this does feel like a tough spot. (4) PRICELESS BEACH looked super in
that win in PA 5 back but he was subsequently disqualified for a medication violation – he’s been decent since then,
but does seem to be more comfortable vs. a bit easier at the moment. (7) BILLY CLYDE looked ready to pack in to
the final turn last week but somehow still held 2nd behind the dominant winner – hard to know if he was able to “dig
in'' or if the others just failed to fire...but this could be a tough spot, either way. (6) DEETZY had a useful tightener
last week, but lands in another tough spot tonight – leaning towards others, right now.
RACE 8 – (1) WINDSUN RICKY seemed to be a big “go” last week but he couldn’t get around the rail horse at the
start, ended up in the 3 hole, and lost any chance from that bad spot – not sure if he’s ready to beat these but the barn
is coming off a solid week, and this guy may be in a winning spot. (2) MIRRAGON A battled hard first over vs.
better in his only local try before tiring – he’s a proven winner out of town at this level, and could be a dangerous
player from this spot. (6) SHADOW CAT was no threat in his last pair but was facing better foes – would have liked
him better from an inside post, but he can still be a threat if he brings his best effort. (3) KARLOO BRADLEY N
was well backed and aggressively handled last week but unable to deliver – still willing to use underneath, however.
(4) CAVEMAN A qualified back sharply after almost 3 months off – if barnmate FEARFUL INTENT (also off a
layoff) comes up big in Race 7, maybe give this guy some extra consideration? (5) MIND HUNTER seems a bit
cheap and is definitely inconsistent – he does hail from a trainer/driver tandem that wins at an amazing rate, so it’s
hard to just ignore him completely. (7) KIMBLE A elected to start off his U.S. career at Fhd. – he raced well, but it
may suggest that he’s not quite ready to take on these tougher ones – perhaps check the tote board for clues?
RACE 9 – (1) MACHEASY A was only 1 for 16 here last year but he’s done good work in prior seasons– his
current Ohio form would make him very dangerous from this spot, especially with most of the others in here looking
shaky at best – he does figure to be overbet, however. (4) KING JAMES EXPRESS can be pretty inconsistent and
he hasn’t won in a while – this is probably a spot where Pantaleano can get aggressive, and that might put him in a
better position to grab a victory. (2) SWEET TROY really wasn’t bad last week from an impossible spot, and gets
both post and class relief for tonight – certainly worth a look. (3) CYRUS N was tailing to close out 2023 and his
qualifier is hard to gauge – he’d be a threat here IF ready, but that’s a major IF! (8) MACH N CHEESE had a tough
2023 (short) season (10-0-1-0) but that last Fhd. line does look more encouraging – would have ranked him a bit
higher if not for the terrible draw. (5) LIKE CLOCKWORK was a zillion to one “autotoss” for weeks in NJ – he was acquired by our leading trainer after his start on 12/16 (where he was 9th at 73-1), got bet down to an insane 3/5 the
very next week and clearly to the surprise of few, scooted off to an easy, form-reversing victory – came back to earth
a bit from Post 10 in his next, and may be in a bit too tough with these, as well. (7) THE REAL ONE had an overall
sluggish 2023 campaign and now begins his 14YO farewell tour – he does fit with these, but will be coming from
well back after missing 6+ weeks. (6) AIR FORCE HANOVER disappoints way more often than he delivers, but he
does pick up a few wins every year – not a terrible bomb, if looking to spread this race.
RACE 10 – (6) ROCK THIS WAY was a solid 3rd in his first local try (for his new barn) – he eliminated his 8 hole
disadvantage last week with a very fast start, but then weakened from 2nd in the pocket when the winner just drew
off from the final turn – might be in with a field he can handle tonight. (1) JOJOS PLACE was no factor at all last
week but may have lost interest after getting stuck in the back – the barn popped a couple of winners last week –
maybe he can perk up too? (3) STATEMENT MADE A showed a little life rallying for 2nd last week (same race as
#6) – he hasn’t been “sharp” in some time, so we’ll see if that was a hint at some better form to come. (4) MY ULTI
MATE STAR A was dull at 8/5 two back and nowhere to be found last week – won’t say that he CAN’T beat these
tonight, but that 9/5 ML price makes him hard to recommend on top! (5) ALOTBETTOR N faltered on the lead in
his “23 return then was empty last week – we’ll see if the class drop helps. (2) PAT STANLEY A looked well short
in his first start back from the winter break – could be tighter tonight...maybe the tote board will offer some help?
(7) LUCIANO A wasn’t bad last week but he lands all the way outside and has been camera shy for some time.
RACE 11 – (6) BRUTALLY HANDSOME A was sent off at 1/5 from Post 8 for his local debut and despite looking
vulnerable for just a second on the final turn, he ended up a blowout winner – catches nothing too scary as he steps
up a notch, and may be able to pick up another victory in the finale. (2) PURPLE POET faces a bit easier after
picking up a pair of decent 4ths vs. the 40s – no reason he can’t be part of the equation against these. (4) SPORTY M
THREE is the “x factor” in here – he was bet down to 4/5 last week off the class drop but he hasn’t been sharp in
some time, and disappointed again that night – he’ll turn it around eventually...but hard to keep taking short prices
HOPING it’ll happen that night. (5) CAVIART SARGENT was well backed last week but unable to keep it going on
the front end – may bounce back with a better effort from off the pace tonight, and is worth considering underneath.
(1) MEMPHISTENNESSEE N prefers to be in a bit cheaper but the good draw puts him in play for a minor share.
(3) BETTOR SUN was 0 for 21 last year...not something you generally see for any performers in this barn – hard to
back with any confidence. (8) GAMBLINGTERROR was actually not bad vs. better last week (racing off the hiatus)
but the draw does figure to slow him down tonight. (7) GOOD INVESTMENT benefited from a live flow to rally
for 3rd last week, but may not get as good a trip tonight.