Thursday Empire Report

soaofny • June 29, 2023

The Empire Report - Thursday, June 29, 2023 - Race Analysis

RACE 1 - (5) KASHA V made an unexpected miscue on turn two last week and lost any real chance - he

was pretty sharp in the weeks prior, however, and should be a nice price tonight - could offer some good

value in tonight's opener. (4) WHAT SHOULD I GOO came up 2nd best to the talented tripsitter last week

and has been very good lately (2 wins and 2 seconds from her last 5 starts) - the one to beat, but will also be

a pretty short price. (7) PINEWOOD HANOVER debuts tonight for a trainer/driver team that combined for

7 wins on the Monday and Tuesday cards (including Bartlett's 10,000th career victory!) - he's off 3 weeks

and draws poorly, but is still worth considering if the price is good enough. (2) SPICY NUGGET has been

solid here all year and fits nicely...but he's been away for a month (off a sick scratch) and may be a little

short this week. (1) BIZET has been racing well lately, but vs. cheaper - we'll see if the rail can help him

grab a piece. (6) PERRON beat cheaper 2 and 3 back but made a break last week - tough draw tonight in a

pretty solid field. (3) UNEVERGONNAGETHIS finally graduated from the NW6 class last week and will

have to prove that he can hang with tough older foes.


RACE 2 - (4) SOUTH BEACH STAR shipped in razor sharp from PA and went a HUGE mile in his YR

debut, used and hounded the entire way and still finishing a close 3rd behind COVERED BRIDGE and

HELLABALOU (both of whom enjoyed easy trips) - faces a much softer overall field tonight, and looms

the one to beat. (5) TAKE A GAMBLE won 7 of his first 8 local starts this year before dealing with 8 holes

the last 2 weeks (but still racing well each time) - probably the biggest danger, but drawing outside #4 does

figure to hurt his chances. (1) CERTIFIABLE drops from the "real" Open and certainly didn't embarrass

himself in there - he fits beautifully in this class, and his speed will have him sitting close all the way - big

threat to land somewhere on the ticket. (3) LUCKBEWITHALEX really wasn't bad shipping in last week

(just a tough trip) - eligible to grab a small piece here with a kind trip. (2) CAVIART SARGENT has been

outperforming his odds for the last 2 months, and is always a good choice for 3rd/4th. (7) GREG THE LEG

is having a terrific year, and that includes his last 2 starts after the barn change - the draw is the obvious

impediment for tonight, though. (6) FEARFUL INTENT raced well from off the pace 2 back then was 2nd

off the pocket trip last week - tough draw in a strong field is the only reason he's listed this far down.


RACE 3 - (3) SEVECHEETAH comes into this with an 0 for 17 career record but he's earned nearly

$100K and has held his own with solid stock throughout his young career - his last two starts (after a barn

change) were particularly sharp, and stamp his a pretty solid stickout in this MUCH easier NW2 event. (2)

ROSE RUN YANKEE struggled at 2 but has clearly matured since returning at 3, rallying for 3rd in his

seasonal debut before winning his last pair - may complete a very short exacta. (8) UNICORN BLUE CHIP

appears to have some ability but draws Post 8 off a break and has been away for 3 weeks...still may be able

to beat the others, however. (4) WISTERIA HANOVER hit board in 4 of 7 as a 2YO, and her last 2 PA

overnight races produced a win and a 2nd - chance for a piece of this. (7) PRETTY DAME SPEEDY has

looked good when he's behaved in his brief career BUT he exits a very sharp barn, hasn't raced since

qualifying on 6/3, has no starts since 4/22 and also draws poorly - bit hard to predict for tonight. (1)

SQUABLE is as camera shy as they come, but also manages to pick up checks virtually every start - chance

for more of the same tonight. (5) BYINVITEONLY appeared to break briefly before the start last week but

the judges didn't chart it as such - suppose he could grab a piece on his best effort, but the lightly raced

5YO is just hard to support right now. (6) SWAN FACTOR is just 2 for 29 lifetime facing much softer

competition.


RACE 4 - (1) INCOMMUNICADO is very sharp right now but somehow was allowed to draw for the

inside posts and as usually happens, ends up with the pole - that may give him enough of an edge to knock

off his main rival tonight. (5) HILLEXOTIC was victorious in his only local start this year...a race where

HE was incredibly allowed to draw for the inside (also drawing the rail) - he's done outstanding work all

year (at multiple tracks), and certainly loves racing here at Yonkers (20-9-7-1 over the last 3 years!) - the

one to beat. (2) SWEET SOUL DAVID has been good all year and his form is holding even at this top level

- may be able to sit close enough to grab another good piece. (3) ON HIGHER GROUND has had an

excellent 2023 season and while unproven here at the top level, he's certainly gone enough big miles to

suggest he can hang with these too - another with a legitimate chance at a good piece. (6) STORMY KRO

MER has taken 2 in a row for the latest addition to the "10,000 Win Club" but tonight's draw may leave

him with a pretty tough trip - may not be his week. (4) HEY LIVVY was better last week, but still only beat

the troubled horses - others just seem sharper right now.


RACE 5 - (1) ONION GUM ended his 2YO season with a couple of miscues in KY but just prior to that he

won a NYSS race at Batavia, after a 2nd here at Yonkers - he's been a notch below the top NY colts so far

as a 3YO, but will surely appreciate tonight's softer spot - major threat from the pole. (6) KENNEBAGO

responded to a barn change that has been hugely successful in the past with a sharp win at Tioga - came up

a little short in the lane here when 4th last week but that was after leaving from Post 8 (and possibly even

shutting off his air a bit) - major danger, even from Post 6. (7) AVACAKES has been hitting board every

week before getting wiped out in her last - draws poorly and loses Yannick, but still a legitimate threat for a

share IF Marohn leaves with her. (8) HEADOVERBOOTS AS is 0 for 15 this year and just 1 for 13 for his

career at Yonkers...but his last start was actually very good, and he may be a good value horse for exotics

even from out here (3) MATT SO SURE generally contends for only minor shares, and the same will likely

be the case tonight. (4) U BAKE THE CAKE ships in from PcD with a 2 for 36 career slate - prefer to just

watch, for now. (2) LIVINGONTHERAIL trotted evenly in a race marred by a breaker two back (1st start

off the layoff), then made a break last week - not ready to hop on his team right now. (5) DUSTIN HANOV

ER broke in his local debut...for a barn having a very tough month of June.


RACE 6 - In a race where even the favorites have pretty weak recent form....(3) LONG WEEKEND A has

been really struggling lately but the same can be said for almost every horse in here - he was racing well

with better not that long ago, and he gets a red-hot Bartlett at the lines tonight...maybe this is his wake up

spot? (1) DELIGHTFUL TERROR has a similar profile to the top choice, and could be a big threat IF he

can summon anything close to his better form - expect a much more aggressive try dropping to the bottom

class from the pole. (2) RHODENA ROAD was seriously overdriven last week with predictable results - it

MAY have tightened him up, though, an like the top 2 choices is dropping to the basement tonight - maybe

he's the one that perks up the most? (5) OHARE HANOVER has struggled in 2023 but he did race well

here last year - his small barn has been sending out some live ones, and he'll be a big price if you think all

the favorites might falter. (7) ROCKATHON is way off form for a barn that's been generally ice cold - Post

7 obviously won't help. (6) FRANCO NANDOR N was an empty (well beaten) 3rd in his local debut and

just seems fairly cheap. (4) AINT HE SPECIAL picked up a check (5th) for the first time since the 4/7

claim - we'll see if he can build off that. (8) HURRIKANE GEORGIE has struggled all year, and now lands

behind the 8 ball.


RACE 7 - Sharp group: (4) VALI HANOVER has taken 3 of his last 4 starts and was kept trapped behind

#2 in the loss - his barn has been winning at an insane 40% lately, and he deserves top billing...but there are

too many sharp ones in here to take a very short price! (7) ALL CHAMPY charged home at 26-1 last week

to finish right behind #4 - the price will come down a bit but he's won too many of these to not at least

consider at any "good" price. (1) OH BOY wasn't as sharp last week as he was 2 back, but still finished 3rd

- his best effort makes him a viable threat from this spot. (2) CRESCENT BEAUTY moved to a barn that

has been able to dramatically improve fresh horses at times....then went out and won in this class on the

front end -- lost all chance with an early miscue last week, but still deserves plenty of respect tonight. (5)

EPOS ODTERVANG DK is finally dropping in the box every week and has been a steady player - still

winless on the year, but a good piece is within reach (with the right trip). (8) HATIKVAH was sent off

favored last week shipping in from Harrington (and joining one of our sharpest barns) but was simply no

match for the fired up winner - he fits with these for sure, and worth a play (at a BIG price) if you think

Brennan can find him a trip from Post 8. (3) LIGHTFOOTEDLEGEND hasn't been in his 2 starts since

shipping in but catches a stacked field tonight and seems a bit overmatched. (6) IM THE MUSCLE has 3

wins this year but this just doesn't feel like a good spot for him.


RACE 8 - (4) IN A TINY WAY was the choice here last week but she blew up early after leaving the gate -

the ability is definitely there, and her price will be better tonight...may be worth sticking with her one more

time. (7) THE AMERICAN EAGLE was struggling a bit here earlier this year but has been doing overall

solid work at Chester for some time - he returns to YR for our leading trainer....who notched 7 wins on

Mon/Tues....have to respect. (2) MUSCLE DAN was caught in back to back races won by the blowout

winner but finished ok each time - should be a good fit with this bunch, and a live trip could make him a

real threat. (1) TAP ME BLUE CHIP had a pair of big price wins earlier this year and almost pulled off a

6-1 wire to wire score in her last - has speed from the pole, and should be a player from start to finish. (5)

RUTH HONIG earned $142K at 2 and started off her 3YO campaign in fine fashion, before making a break

in a NYSS race at Tioga last week - hard to say how serious she'll be in tonight's overnight event. (3) CRE

DARENA has disappointed more often than he's delivered this year - he's listed to go without the hopples

tonight, and we'll see how that affects his performance. (6) RACER DAN was off a bad date to his last

while changing barns - he could be sharper tonight, but he's also just 2 for 33 over the last 2 seasons. (8)

BACKSTREET PLAYER draws Post 8 off a bad date after being scratched injured.


RACE 9 - (1) ALEX TYE has raced well in a bunch of starts this year so it's a bit surprising that he's just 1

for 20 on the season - he should end up with a very good trip tonight, and perhaps he can double that

seasonal victory total. (8) HEISMAN PLAYER has had a tough season so far but he was a BIG "go" last

week, and took a tough beat after a big mile (and beat the others by many) - legitimate chance tonight (even

from Post 8) with a similar effort. (2) MAJOR SHOW has raced well in the majority of his local starts this

year, even in some of the races where his lines don't look all that great - gets a good draw, and a live trip

could see him grab a good piece of this. (4) BLUE OCEAN's last start here was in NW15000 so he's taking

a significant drop tonight - he's also racing off a sick scratch, so make sure to get a pretty good price if he's

your top selection. (7) BARON MICHAEL draws poorly yet again and has been unable to get involved in

his last couple - may find himself in that same boat for tonight. (5) WARDAN EXPRESS A has a couple of

wins this year but is as unpredictable as most of his barnmates - will probably stick with others. (3) PINK

FLOYD HANOVER has yet to hit board in 3 local starts (at big prices) - prefer others. (6) PERSIMMON

A is winless here over the last 3 seasons, draws poorly and has been struggling out of town.


RACE 10 - (3) CODY HANOVER was hammered down to favoritism shipping in last week (moving to

the Dynamic Duo) and did go a big mile...but came up 2nd best to the classy tripsitter (who came back to

win again this week) - he'll be an even shorter price tonight...and should be able to get his picture taken. (2)

TYGA HANOVER was a no-threat 3rd last week behind the top choice - he hasn't been all that sharp in his

2 starts since arriving from Canada, but still feels like a strong candidate to land on the ticket from this spot

(4) MISTER SPOT A was a decent 4th in his last and has a couple of other recent excuses - may be able to

add some value to the exotics. (1) JOJOS PLACE just hasn't thrived since being claimed by his current

connections but drops down from the 40s, lands the rail, and may have a wake up call in store for tonight -

chance for a piece. (6) ADAM CROCKER A wasn't bad last week even if helped by an easy inside trip - ok

bomb for 3rd/4th. (8) HES SPECIAL has some Monti lines that aren't bad, but tonight's draw will likely

have him waiting for a better spot to show what he's got. (5) GINGRAS BEACH is one of many from this

barn that has struggled mightily for some time - waiting for better signs. (7) HEEZ OURPERSEUS N

moves to a new barn after having no luck for his last one - terrible spot tonight, but will keep an eye for

some signs of improvement.

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