Monday Empire Report

soaofny • April 17, 2023

The Empire Report - Monday, April 17, 2023 - Race Analysis

RACE 1 - (2) OAKWOODNITOWINIT IR gets a major drop from the Borgata Series, especially since he's

a threat to win our typical Open when "right" - he does suffer from inconsistency at times, but he'll be very

tough tonight if anywhere close to his best...just be careful about taking a very short price. (5) ULTIMARO

CA ships back in from NJ and should be feeling pretty good about himself after last week's mega-blowout

(over cheaper) - he struggled to win races here last year (just 1 for 12), but did win 2 of 3 local starts earlier

this year - the main danger, for sure. (6) BLANK STARE didn't leave and didn't pull last week, and that left

him struggling with traffic issues into the stretch - he does fit well at this level, and a better trip could put

him in play for a good piece. (4) NOWHERE CREEK A was racing very well almost every start but was

scratched sick on 3/28 and comes into tonight having missed 3 weeks....making him a bit of a question

mark. (1) MY ULTIMATE STAR A finally found his U.S. form recently and started to climb the class

ladder - he was scratched from his last to due a post-race test finding (from 5/14, negating one of his wins),

and it's hard to predict what type of effort we'll see from him tonight. (8) TIN ROOF RAIDER A is sharper

than he looks on paper right now, but also figures to struggle from all the way out here - may look mighty

appealing with a better post (and class drop!) next week. (3) INDICTABLE HANOVER went a good effort

2 back but he does seem to prefer to be in cheaper, most of the time - leaning towards others, but would

never just dismiss anything this barn sends out. (7) WARDAN EXPRESS A was in the right place at the

right time last week when the heavily favored leader just broke to 3/4s - this guy DID actually race very

well, but still looks like a stretch from all the way out here.


RACE 2 - Good race! (6) MOONSHINE KISSES gets assigned the outside post and while that will surely

make his trip more unpredictable, it also should yield a much better price - he's won 3 in a row, and CAN

race very well from off the pace too - definitely worth using again if the price is decent. (3) WINDSUN

RICKY has been on a beautiful form spree that has seen him climb from the bottom level right to the top

since February - Dunn fits him like a glove, and he's another that figures to be offering a square price in this

competitive affair. (5) PYRO was overtaken by the top 2 choices last week but was still a very game 3rd -

he won 4 of 5 just prior to that, and is another than can race from behind, when necessary - possibility. (2)

ODDS ON OSIRIS landed in a no chance spot upon arrival from Ohio but was pacing well late - figures to

be handled very aggressively here, and may be good enough to pose a legitimate threat. (4) SPEED MAN

N shook free just in time last week and charged home for the win - he hasn't been in "Open form" yet this

year, but perhaps last week signaled a step back in that direction- would hardly be a shock. (1) THE IDEAL

DANCER A was overachieving for weeks before throwing a clunkers in Leg 2 of the Borgata Series - he's

been away for 3 weeks, and it's hard to know what we'll get from him tonight.


RACE 3 - MGM Borgata Pace, Leg #5: (6) THIS IS THE PLAN clearly hasn't been close to top form since

the series began but he does land in the softest division tonight, and that mile 2 starts back (2nd to

BACKSTREET SHADOW) would definitely make him a legitimate threat - decent value play as he figures

to be cutting the mile, or sitting the two hole. (1) LOCHINVAR ART A was just "good" in the victory 2

back then finally tasted defeat for the first time on U.S. soil in his next start - it was reported that he was a

bit sick that night, and he did take off Leg #4 to freshen up....for the 4th time in this series he lands in the

softest division, and also gets the best draw....but from a WAGERING standpoint, there could be some

value playing against him tonight. (2) DE AN B HANOVER is another "value horse" to consider - he

might have had a chance at the upset 3 back if not trapped too long in the lane, then raced very well in his

last pair too - his trainer has all his big guns firing on all cylinder right now, so maybe this guy can provide

an upset as well? (4) BELMONT ROYALE N took off Week 4 after managing no better than 4th in his first

3 tries - maybe he can rally for a small slice tonight? (5) UNDRTHSOUTHRNSUN N hasn't embarrassed

himself in the Borgata, though clearly a bit below the top ones - the draw may leave him in a tough spot

tonight, however. (3) BAD TOTHE BONE N will appreciate some class relief soon.


RACE 4 - (5) PEDRO HANOVER looked super in those wins 2 and 3 starts back but that LAST victory

was just scary, as he got used VERY hard just to make the lead from Post 8 but rather than tiring late, he

just found another gear and left his rivals in the dust - moves up to 40s, but hard to go against in his current

form. (1) MIKEY CAMDEN always seems to bring his best when he can race on/near the lead and last

week was no exception - moves up in class here but he's looking at another good trip, and may be the one

should the top choice falter. (4) GINGER TREE PETE becomes a very dangerous horse when close turning

for home and that's why last week's fast start put him position to pick up his 4th win of the season - gets

"stuck" with Bartlett tonight (Kakaley stays with #6), and he'll be dangerous IF the trip falls his way. (3)

LOVE THE BLUES N squandered last week's live 2nd over trip but he did have some trouble before the

start and that may have hurt his performance - good value play, as he CAN be a player if on his best game

(and Stratton takes him over #8). (2) LYONS LIBERTY N had a useful tightener off the long layoff and

moves inside for a barn that's heating up - ok for longshot fans. (6) CHANGE STRIDE N is a solid 40 but

he's missed a month after being scr. injured and draws poorly as well - leaning to others here. (7) HURRIK

ANEKINGJAMES is a good 30 but did race very well for 2nd at this level last week - the bad draw does

figure to give him some problems, though. (8) DELIGHTFUL TERROR generally struggles from bad posts.


RACE 5 - (2) ROCKNROLL RUNA A raced twice here and was super both times, giving both PYRO and

MOONSHINE KISSES all they could handle despite first over trips - gets Stratton this week, will probably

get to control the action and looms the one to beat. (1) ARDEN MESSI N was a nice 8-1 overlay last week,

did all the heavy lifting first over but took a tough beat right on the wire as the winner shook free just in

time to nip him - no reason he can't be a big player once again. (4) BOILING OAR wasn't on his best game

last week (weakened to 4th after cutting the mile) but he's gone several very sharp miles here this year -

drops right back in the box, and could easily land somewhere on this ticket. (6) MARLBANK ROAD had

been knocking on the door all year (finished 2nd 5X) before finally getting his picture taken last week - he's

been overachieving for some time, and isn't a bad value horse for the bottom of exotics, despite landing in a

pretty tough spot. (5) ROCKAPELO was well backed last week, driven aggressively and able to hang on

for the win, though definitely tiring late and glad to see the wire - moves up quite a bit tonight, and seems

headed for a smaller share. (7) CAPTIVATE HANOVER was handled ultra-aggressively last week and was

able to deliver the very sharp front end score (for a barn sending out lots of live ones lately) - hard to say

how much impact he'll be able to have from out here, though. (3) ROLLING WITH SAM has been finding

some better form recently but vs. easier - the good draw helps, but he just may find a few of these a little

too tough. (8) BELMONT MAJOR N actually beat the top choice at Stga. last start but from a MUCH more

favorable spot - lands all the way outside, and is 5-0-0-0 at YR over the last 2 seasons.


RACE 6 - MGM Borgata Pace, Leg #5: (1) JIMMY FREIGHT has only one series win so far but he's been

an excellent 2nd in 3 other legs - he'll have a tactical edge on some VERY sharp foes tonight, and that earns

him top billing (though he's far from a cinch) (4) FUNATTHEBEACH N went arguably the best mile of his

life in that ultra-impressive victory 2 back but then followed that up with another vicious performance last

week, battling first over into a :26.3 third panel yet still finding more in the lane to come out on top - last

year's Borgata Champ is certainly peaking at the right time, and looms a big danger once more. (6) IDEAL

SOMEMAGIC A is 10-7-2-0 at Yonkers this year, the lone off-the-board finish coming 2 back (when he

lacked room in the stretch) - gave #4 all he could handle last week, but would seem to be at a post

disadvantage for tonight - would still consider at the right price, hoping that somehow the trip goes his way.

(7) BACKSTREET SHADOW has really elevated his game since joining this barn in Feb. but that last

effort was eye-poppingly breathtaking, effortlessly brushing by JIMMY FREIGHT on his way to tying the

track record - the real question for tonight is will he end up close enough turning for home for a chance to

rally on by, or will he find himself too far back to do any real damage...especially with the Final coming up

next week! (2) BEE TWO BEE is a bit below the big guns in here but he draws well, and may be able to

chase along for some minor spoils. (3) SPLASH BROTHER earns himself a Borgata try off 4 straight wins

but even as sharp as he is, he's hard to endorse moving so far up in class. (5) ANOTHRMASTRPIECE N is

a nice horse but lands in a terrible spot - will look good dropping down after the series concludes.


RACE 7 - (5) JACKS LEGEND A hasn't resembled his best self in some time but while last week's first

over effort certainly wasn't "great", he still only got beat by a length in a better field than this one - he meets

no standouts tonight, and this MAY finally be the spot where he can pick up a victory...but don't fall in love

at a short price! (1) JAHAN HANOVER was razor sharp to start the year as he zoomed up the class ladder

- started to tail off, but has come back around with a pair of 2nds in is last two starts - drops again and

draws the pole for our leading trainer/driver tandem...but note that he did come up 2nd best in a similar spot

last week, before deciding to bet the rent money tonight. (7) ON ACCIDENT picked up a win and a 3rd

from 2 local starts last year and seems to be shipping in from NJ in solid form - terrible draw, but that 20-1

ML price does give him some appeal! (3) VEL MR NICE GUY was racing well across the river and paced

home steadily for 4th from a tough spot last week - moves inside, and could be worth including on your

ticket. (4) GENTLEMANJIMM II IE broke briefly to the half last week, recovered, lost action again on the

final turn but was still coming late to be a close 2nd - on the flip side, he's 0 for 18 at YR and hard to back

for the top slot. (2) BETTORBUCKLEUP has been camera shy at Yonkers so it's a bit of a surprise to see

him win his last two in a row -steps up, and we'll see if he can do damage with these too. (6) TIME TO

DANCE raced a bit better last week but just doesn't seem to be as sharp as he was earlier this year.


RACE 8 - MGM Borgata Pace, Leg #5 - another stacked division! (4) COVERED BRIDGE has been on

our tickets and right there at BIG prices for several weeks....so last week's (razor sharp) win at a measly 5/2

price was somewhat bittersweet - there should be no doubt left that he IS sharp enough to be a threat every

week, and we'll give him the slight nod to repeat against several very capable rivals. (2) TATTOO ARTIST

has been an enigma this series - he faltered on the lead twice, but was a "brush and crush" winner in Leg 2

and raced super from an impossible spot in his last - if he's feeling good tonight, he becomes a major threat!

(3) NONE BETTOR A certainly hasn't been "bad" throughout the series, but he hasn't been in "raging"

form either - he was a solid 3rd in his last, and the right trip could make him a threat here. (5) LEONIDAS

A threw a (very) rare clunker 2 back, but did rebound with a nice try for 2nd last week (behind the top

choice) - he's far too talented to ever ignore IF the price is decent. (1) HELLABALOU wasn't at his best

trying to chase a hot mile from off the pace last week but the fortuitous draw will allow him to blast hard

and secure a good trip tonight - could easily land somewhere on the ticket. (6) NANDOLO N hasn't been at

his best throughout the series and now draws outside 5 top foes - hard to like his chances from this spot. (7)

HEMSWORTH N picked up a win 2 back when able to roll by a sub-par LOCHINVAR A from the two

hole - hard to see him getting into the hunt tonight, however.


RACE 9 - Good race: (6) TOWNLINE ALL GOOD has taken 4 of his last 5 and broke on the lead in that

lone loss - he may have to race from behind here, but he can be just as deadly from OFF the pace...faces a

few sharp ones, but still gets top billing thanks to both his connections, and winning habit. (4) WICHITA

LINEMAN had to back off hard to last at the start last week and lost all chance - he was a winner in his

previous 2 starts, while also just missing 5 and 6 starts down...very capable opponent! (3) PURPLE POET

rallied to just miss at 40-1 last week and was a good 3rd two starts before that - he's listed at 9-1 ML but the

right trip could make him a threat tonight. (5) OURRHYTHMNBLUES N comes into tonight with 4 wins

and 2 close 2nds from his last 6 starts and would be hard to dismiss, despite moving up a notch - have to

include at least on a few tickets. (2) PRETTY HANDSOME moves back inside and has proven that he can

be right there with the right trip - leaning to a few others a bit more, but this guy would hardly be a surprise.

(1) SHERIFF N is listed at 5/2 ML despite moving up in class while failing to win one level down - he

looks good "on paper", but really hasn't felt nearly as '"sharp" as his lines might look.


RACE 10 - (6) BB LUCKY BOY was 4 for 4 here last year and showing major potential - he was slow to

come around off the layoff, but went a sharp try for 3rd two back, then finished well from an impossible

spot last week - the class drop should help him overcome tonight's bad draw, and give him a good chance

for his win of '23. (2) FLOW WITH JOE had 9 wins last year and has already beaten the 40s here a couple

of times this season- he should definitely appreciate tonight's easier spot, and looms a solid threat (7) PACE

N PRIDE N had a solid tightener off the layoff 3 back, just missed to a razor sharp foe in his next but blew

up on the lead (with no visible reason) last week, as the 1/5 choice - Stratton bails for #6, but this guy will

be a good price tonight if you want to just forgive last week. (1) GAMBLINGTERROR has a knack for

finding easy trips at big prices and landing somewhere on the ticket - good one to include underneath. (3)

LUCIANO N probably needs to be in easier to threaten for the top slot but he's more than good enough to

land in the exotics with any half-decent trip (4) KEFORD ROAD A threw a clunker 2 back but the addition

of Lasix last week may explain that - he's very camera shy, but another that could pick up a piece with the

right trip. (5) PRO BEACH seems better suited for the lower levels right now.


RACE 11 - (2) TWIN B HEART THROB has been sharp all year long, and a few of his (close!) 2nds have

come behind rivals who would be hard to beat in this field - the one to knock off from this spot. (6) PEACE

OUT POSSE seemed way overbet 2 back (off a bad date) and lost all chance with an early miscue -

undeterred, he blasted to the top at 75-1 last week, ended up sitting the two hole to SPLASH BROTHER

and almost held on for 2nd - big player again tonight, even from Post 6. (1) CENTURY HANNIBAL

moves up in class after tiring on the lead vs. cheaper last week - he definitely has a chance for a piece, but

that 8/5 ML price seems pretty absurd (even hailing from our top barn). (4) HYPNOTIC DREAM found his

form recently and has been a contender for the last few starts - moves up again in class, though, and is also

winless in 9 local tries - prefer him underneath. (3) CAPTAINS PLACE was a 17-1 overlay winner 2 back

(from Post 8) thanks to a smart drive from Siegelman - paced home steadily (while no factor) up in class

last week, and seems headed for another smaller share tonight. (7) PROVOCATIVEPRINCEN has hit

board in 8 of 9 starts this year, though the winner's circle has eluded him - not sure Kakaley can find him a

manageable journey from out here, though. (5) AINT HE SPECIAL made his last start for his previous

connections a winning one, thanks to a perfect trip - not sure he'll fare quite as well tonight, however.


RACE 12 - Good finale! (5) QUALITY BUD is having a good season, and might have been a winner last

week had he not been trapped in the pocket - he's a decent (value) option in a race that could go several

different ways. (3) LOUS SWEETREVENGE disappointed 2 back (as the 1/10 choice!) then had no prayer

from Post 8 last week - on his best he would be a big threat against these, and he's bounced back from

tough efforts in the past - another worth considering. (6) SEMI TOUGH looked highly vulnerable on all

sides through the lane last week but Gingras did a great job squeezing enough out of him to get home in

front - he's way too classy to ever dismiss at this level, but he does seem even more vulnerable tonight with

the outside draw. (7) BALLERAT BOOMERANG is another having an excellent season so far, and his first

try for new connections was a very good one - his chances go way up here if Brennan can get him away to

a fast start. (2) HICKFROMFRENCHLICK couldn't get by #6 last week but was right there 2nd - his barn

has been really perking up lately, and this guy MAY be able to trip out and be a player. (1) CAN BE

PERFECT gets a pass for his last (bad post off a sick scratch) but he drops right back in the box, draws the

pole, and the right trip could make him a late player. (4) STRAIGHT UP COOL finished ok from an

impossible spot last week and he has really been an improved horse lately - chance for a piece with the

right journey. (8) TIGER BARON has held his fine form right up the class ladder but faces an uphill climb

from Post 8 tonight.

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