The Empire Report – Thursday, September 5, 2024 – Race Analysis
RACE 1 – (4) HES SPECIAL had been ordinary at best lately but he was suddenly hammered at the windows last
week (even money!), then went out a won more like a 2/5 shot – if he’s feeling just as good tonight, he’ll be tough to
knock off. (2) CAPTAIN T HANOVER has been consistently good all season, overcoming even tough trips on
many occasions – he was a very game first over 2 nd to the scary-sharp top choice last week, and we’ll see if he can
find enough to reverse that decision tonight. (1) TWO FACED really upped his game back in June, and remained
very sharp for some time – he MAY be starting to level off a bit, but he was also just re-claimed by a barn for whom
he jogged back on 7/1 – would be no surprise at all. (6) TAKE A CLOSER LOOK was outstanding for a long stretch
earlier this year but has shown some slippage recently – his last was a little better, and he’s worth at least a look for
exotics at that 20-1 ML price. (7) SURFRIDER owns a couple of wins at this level but he’s come up short in his last
couple, and lands a terrible draw tonight. (3) THAT DOG WILL HUNT has tailed off lately, and goes with an
amateur pilot here. (5) KINGSTON PANIC used a perfect trip to beat easier last week– may have trouble replicating
that effort tonight, trying to rally from well back
RACE 2 – Amateur Race: (3) FANATIC actually trotted a very strong final 3/8ths last week after finding himself
way too far back to have any real chance – he came up 2 nd best the week before to a trotter that came back to be right
there in last week’s OPEN, and that earns him the edge tonight. (2) PSALMSFORTYSIXFIVE has been rock solid
since adding hopples back in July – he figures to be in the hunt once again, with a legitimate chance at the top slot.
(4) MUFASA AS doesn’t look all that exciting on paper right now but he does get the services of the hottest amateur
pilot at the moment, and that could help him outperform that 15-1 ML price. (6) DRACOS S is just 1 for 24 this year
and lands a terrible post but his recent form is solid, and his pilot has shown that she can handle a horse very well –
chance for a piece. (5) SWISS HOUSE ONFIRE has strong recent form (including a win 2 back) but tonight’s pilot
hasn’t been first or 2 nd in 36 starts this year, and he’s listed at 2-1 on the ML – feels like better value with others. (1)
PERRON broke last week after being scratched lame from his previous start – pass for now
RACE 3 – (2) BAR COINS has really been hitting on all cylinders lately, winning 3 of his last 6 and finishing close
up in the other losses – hard to imagine him not getting a good trip here, and we’ll go with him on top. (1) LOS BAL
LYKEELAMIGO was taken off the gate last week for the first time in ages (after a miscue the start before) but
showed a new dimension by charging home in the lane, almost rallying from 6 th to 1st – assuming he stays trotting
tonight, he’ll surely be a handful (and likely BACK on the front end). (5) STEUBEN HANOVER hit board in 4 of
his last 5 starts but has been lacking the late pop to get to the winner’s circle – seems destined to rally for another
smaller piece tonight. (6) TOP ME OFF has 8 wins this year but is still plagued by inconsistency – he goes for a new
barn tonight and even if he brings one of his better efforts, he may have trouble reaching from this tough post. (3) JS
HOPSCOTCH has been limited to smaller pieces these days – needs to be better. (4) MISSION VOYAGE picked up
an easy trip 3rd 4 back but has otherwise not been a serious threat in most of his recent starts
RACE 4 – (1) PASSIONATE PROMISE made a rare miscue 2 back (at 3/5...ouch!) but rebounded with a rock solid
try for 2 nd last week – gets a new pilot tonight, but still has to be labeled the one to knock off. (4) WILLY WALTON
carved out a hot 3/4s last week and can be forgiven for getting a little tired at the end (though still a good 3
rd) – he was also good the week before, and remains a threat to grab a big piece. (3) P C FREE WHEELING is a solid player
at this level (with any decent trip) and could easily outperform that 10-1 ML price – use in exotics. (2) FULL STRE
NGTH was claimed from his last and his new connections opt to add trotting hopples (as he’s been hurt by miscues
lately) – it seems like the ability is there, but it might still be a good idea to be more of an observer, for now. (6) NO
MORE SWEETS came up flat in his local debut then disappointed again last week – he’s capable of better, but may
need a better draw to show it. (5) QUIKSILVR BLUECHIP may need a little class relief before we see his best again
RACE 5 – (1) TO THE HUNT has 3 wins and 3 seconds from his last 6 starts, and was a tough trip 4 th in the other –
he was an easy 2/5 winner off the claim last week, and figures to be controlling the action tonight...remains the one
to beat. (3) HUNT FOR CASH generally races well when he can grab an easy trip and there’s a chance he can find
the two hole at the start – decent shot to last for a good piece if that happens. (2) VANDALISM tend to lag much of
the way before finishing with decent life – gets a good draw, and maybe that can help him rally late to add some
value to the exotics. (6) TARGET AQUIRED dropped in for a tag last week and just missed 2 nd (behind the top
choice) – still a logical player for exotics. (5) LAST POUND his board in 4 of his 5 local starts and was in a very
tough spot in the other (last week) – another with a chance to add some value to the ticket, with the right trip. (8)
HIGH ON ROCKNROLL was able to sit pocketed to #1 last week and dug in late to hang on for 2 nd – if you think
Marohn may try to blast tonight, he’d have a chance to grab another piece here. (4) VICTOR CRUISE has just a pair
of 3rds from 10 local starts – minor share only. (7) LAZ figures to be stuck too far back to be a serious late threat
RACE 6 – Amateur Race: (1) CAL MILES N SHELL has only one recent victory but it did come in an amateur
event and the pilot from that night (Vicki Stratton) is back on board...he should be a decent price (in a race with a
few very live contenders) and could be worth a shot. (5) WINDSONG PIONEER has certainly been loving life in
these amateur races, picking up a win, two 2nds and a 3 rd over the past 4 starts – has the speed to make his own luck,
and remains a very real threat. (6) STICK WITH ME KID has won 6 of his last 7 starts, and was simply brutalized
in the lone loss – his pilot has been on an incredible tear, and it’s pretty hard to fault this guy...other than the bad
post, and the probability of a pretty short price. (2) ICE BREAKERS K will probably be a decent price here but he’s
hit board in 6 of his last 8 starts, hurt by miscues in the other two – would hardly be a shock. (4) PAPA DOC is
racing well again and has more than enough ability to beat these – he can also be a difficult horse to drive at times,
and his pilot has been having a rough time in 2024 – leaning more towards some of the others. (3) BARRY BLACK
may have needed his last (off the bad date) and can’t be counted out completely – short field, but a good race!
RACE 7 – (6) DIAMANTE TRIO IT has been super for a long time, yet still paid good prices in her last 2 victories
– she’ll probably still be a pretty decent price tonight...and we’ll give her a chance to extend her streak to 3. (3) P L
NOTSONICE is also having a terrific/consistent year, but hasn’t found the winner’s circle in her last few starts –
she’s overdue for a good trip, and that could help push her over the top here. (2) WARRAWEE XENIA has come up
short in all 3 local tries, the last pair as the odds-on choice...she remains winless since 2022, and is a hard one to
back on top at another short price (though she does figure to get the job done ONE of these nights)! (5) QUEEN OF
ALL had been racing ok most weeks and knew what to do when she landed on a dream trip in her last start – not
sure why she was so heavily penalized (forced to draw for the 2 outside posts) after just one perfect-trip victory at
12-1 from the pole! (1) HELPOFTHESEASON was a game 2 nd to a sharp tripsitter last week but may need to be in a
bit easier to be a serious threat– the rail draw certainly can’t hurt, though. (4) CANTKEEPMIASECRET was a sharp
front end winner stepping up to this class (off the claim) 4 back, but has been unable to replicate that mile since then
RACE 8 – (1) CRISTAL TRIO IT is forced to tackle the boys again as barnmate (and fellow “Italian”) DIAMANTE
TRIO IT takes on the ladies – she finished 2nd to both PAPPARDELLE and MISSISSIPPI STORM in her last 2 tries
in this class, and neither one of those is in here tonight...maybe she can take advantage of the draw and get her
picture taken? (6) DJIMON gets a tough break being assigned to draw outside (without making a single start in the
Invitational) but he must have impressed Brennan with his 2 wins over cheaper as “The Minister of Speed” takes
this guy over THREE of his main clients...maybe we should hop on board too? (4) ONCE IN A LIFETIME was
sent off favored last week but was used hard early and tired a bit late – he’ll get his chance to make amends tonight.
(2) INFINITY STONE usually needs to face (much) easier to do his damage but he grabbed small checks the last 2
weeks and could do the same here too. (5) I GET IT was ok off the layoff last week but may need another start
before we see his best. (3) YANKS DUGOUT is up in class after stopping badly vs. much easier – sticking with
others
RACE 9 – Tough finale: (7) STORMONT DIVIDE could be a good bomb here – he had excuses in his last pair (no
chance spot 2 back, broke after hitting the lead last week) but the 3 starts before that produced a win, and a pair of
2nds behind horses that will be competing in Saturday’s $250K Miecuna Trot – worth a stab? (3) KEG STAND is
the ultimate question mark – he’s probably the “best horse” (and won his last pair), but he’s also been away since 8/9
after being scratched injured on 8/22 – seems pretty risky for a horse listed at 7/5 on the ML! (4) RITSON has been
3 rd in all 3 local starts, racing “ok” each time – chance here, but will need to be a little sharper. (5) TORRONE has a
couple of recent local wins, but vs. a bit easier – may need a couple of the top ones to falter for a shot at the top
prize. (6) DWS POINT MAN was handled aggressively from the pole last week and picked up a nice victory –
moves up in class now (from a tough post) and may have to settle for a smaller share. (1) STREET GOSSIP has
been holding form nicely even at these higher levels – chance for another piece with the inside draw. (2) ROGER
RABBIT will appreciate the move inside but MAY prefer to be in a little easier – certainly wouldn’t shock. (8) ENE
RGYSOURCE will be hard pressed to get in play starting from out here.