The Empire Report - Thursday, March 4, 2021 - Race Analysis
RACE 1 - Very competitive opener! (1) ACEFOURTYFOUR ALEX hasn't been down at this level in some time, and she draws inside as well - should be able to grab a fairly close up trip behind a potentially contested pace...and that would give her a chance to rally by late, at (hopefully) a square price. (3) CORAL BELLA would have been a cinch at this level a few months ago but it does seem like her form has dropped off considerably lately - trainer/driver combo is always dangerous, though, so the drop to the bottom level just might perk her right up - playable if NOT overbet. (5) MOTU MOONBEAM N had no chance in last (up in class, Post 7, off a month) but drops back to the level she just beat 2 starts back, and can be a legit threat if the trip goes her way. (6) J ROCKIN B has gone many excellent miles lately for a hot barn, but she draws outside a few main players and MAY end up with a much tougher trip tonight - can absolutely win anyway...but there's better value to be had with a couple of others. (2) ANN HILL just hasn't been on her game lately, but the inside draw gives her a shot at a minor award. (7) KOTARE YARRA N drops in class but may not be sharp enough right now to take advantage from Post 7 - wait for a better spot. (4) ALL ABOUT MADI is still trying to find her form after a long layoff - not ready to hop on board just yet. (8) KEYSTONE NIKKI was unable to overcome outside draws in her last 2, and now lands the 8 hole again
RACE 2 - (7) GREAT UNKNOWN was sent off as the odds on choice for his YR debut but got way too hot on the lead and weakened to 3rd - favored again in his next, but made a costly break before the start (then put in a big recovery to only lose by 4 lengths) - tough spot now but the price will go way up, and not a bad time to hop on board. (1) HAYEK has raced here 3X since the barn change and a different version showed up each week (got too hot on the lead the first time and folded; relaxed beautifully in next and was able to rally by the top pick, then hold off a sharp Hunting As to win; looked erratic for parts of the mile in last, and just never fired in the stretch) - if you think the "good" version will show up tonight, this is a winning spot. (6) WITH OUT A DOUBT is hard to like off her program lines but she USED to be a nice younger filly here, and she now goes from a 5% trainer to one of the hottest barns around - has to at least get a look at 20-1 ML! (2) LOOK IN MY EYES broke in the pocket in his YR debut but bounced back in last, cutting the mile and only giving way grudgingly late to the sharp Hunting As - another very viable contender. (3) KASHA V had some issue in his last try but did re-qualify nicely a week later - may be able to sit all the way, and rally for a minor share. (4) BEERTHIRTY K was on a roll but had to re-qualify after missing 6 weeks - hard to know how ready he'll be for tonight. (8) KANDY SWEET has leveled off after moving up to face tougher foes...and now is stuck with Post 8. (5) ER SOPHIA has done some fine work at Monti, but will need to prove that she can go with these tougher local foes.
RACE 3 - (6) LADYBELUCKYTONITE ran into one of the scariest bottom class winners you'll ever see last week but her OWN performance was excellent as well, staying alive on the rim into the insane :27 third panel and then rallying up into 2nd, actually cutting into the dominant winner's margin through the stretch - at 7-1 ML, there's definitely value sticking with her tonight. (1) SUDDEN CHANGE N will be the heavy favorite in here, as she takes a significant drop to the bottom level - figures to be on the lead, but she hasn't been on her game at all lately, and there's no guarantee that the drop alone will get her there - could be a bit vulnerable. (5) IDEAL CLASSIC is a total enigma - overachieved while holding her own for several weeks against top mares, but then was no factor dropping into a good spot 2 back, then rallying way too late off another drop in last - tonight's drop may do the trick, but don't use on top unless the price is decent. (4) COVEREDNDIAMONDS N picked up a win and a 2nd in her first two off the claim - no factor in next, then disappointed off the class drop in last - license to rebound tonight, and can't blame anybody looking to use her at juicy odds. (3) TELL ME A JOKE is yet another class dropper but her current form is lacking, to say the least - barn specializes in form reversals, but still hard to make a case for her here. (7) SOMTHNG ABOUTMARY N was just an "ok" 3rd off the easy trip in last - not sure she can reach from out here. (2) DEUCES FOR CHARITY never wins, and seems unlikely to even grab a piece, despite Post 2. (8) ROLL WITH KIM was just 2 for 32 on cheaper circuits last year - hard to consider against these, from Post 8
RACE 4 - Short Open Mare field, but can still be a good race! (5) MY RUEBE STAR N is another in a seemingly never ending string of Open mares that this sharp barn has under their care - she's currently 8-6-0-1 here at The Hilltop, with the two losses coming when she trapped inside (8/13) and parked the mile (last start) - this is by no means an easy spot (despite the small field), but she's earned the chance to make
amends for last. (4) SIESTA BEACH has been the best local claim in recent memory, and she's held her form for ages, even knocking off the sensational Alexa Skye last week - major threat, as always. (3) DBLEDELITEBRIGADE N has surely been a pleasant surprise for her connections, making her first U.S. start in January and quickly becoming a legitimate Open performer - was right there in her last 2, and can be there again tonight. (2) DEMETER N has been super as she's run through the "NW PM" classes - she'll be a high class mare for sure...but we'll probably just watch her in her first try against the big girls. (1) BRONSKIMACKENZIE A was caught out into the fastest part of the race last week and paid for it - still not sure if she can really hang with these on a weekly basis (we shall see).
RACE 5 - (5) FLYING FINN N left in a questionable spot last week and wound up looped (then parked) by the winner - this seems like a much better spot to go for an aggressive try, and hopefully Siegelman will see it the same way - hasn't been sharp, but this is a very modest bunch and he might be able to get untracked here. (6) TREASURE MACH wasn't bad from no chance spots 2 and 3 back, then came up a neck shy vs. a classy (repeat) winner in last - the right trip gives him a solid chance here. (8) KNOCKING AROUND can hold his own with better, and would probably have been the top pick with a better draw - still a chance, but will need a hotly contested pace to help his cause. (1) ART HISTORY hasn't been all that sharp, but he has a decent chance to grab a piece just because of the easy trip he's looking at. (7) GALACTIC GALLEON N hails from a hot barn, but lands a poor post and just doesn't win all that often...even from better spots. (4) DEEDENUTO A showed some promise in a couple of NJ starts this fall but the import was scratched sick on 10/24 and just re-qualified last week - prefer to just watch, for now. (2) BETTER UP showed some promise here as a 3YO...but he's now 5, and just 2 for 50 for his career - maybe a minor share? (3) TALENT SOUP continues to struggle - pass until we see some better signs
RACE 6 - (4) SEZANA N never had room to pace in the stretch last week or she might have been a lot closer late - been holding her own vs. better in recent starts, and has a chance to spring the upset here, with some better trip luck. (1) DIAMONDTOOTHGERTIE grabs more than her share of wins every year so it's really only a matter of time before she pulls off one of her typical "brush and crush" form reversals - this seems like a possible spot for that to happen, so consider her for your tickets. (2) IM VERY SPECIAL will likely be the heavy favorite and she does have a legitimate chance to wire these...she's also been well off her best form, and just may be vulnerable at a short price tonight...be careful. (3) AMERICAN TOUR N is hard to gauge right now - just an ok 3rd from the pole in her local debut, but did have alert pace finishing from Post 8 in her last - can go either way, but inclined to include her underneath if the price is juicy. (6) SOMETHING REEL seems to bring a different effort almost every week - on her best, she can contend for a piece here...but hard to know what kind of mood she'll be in. (7) JEWELS FORREAL was a solid 2nd from Post 7 last week one level down - she can hold her own in this class too, but maybe not as well from all the way out here. (8) ONEIDA BLUE CHIP took a shot at leaving last week (new barn) but got parked - have to believe Dube will be conservative now from Post 8. 95) GIRLS GOT RHYTHM has struggled any time she's been out of the NW5000 class - prefer others.
RACE 7 - (3) AL MARS GOT A FEVER didn't race here in 2020 but was terrific in 2019, compiling a 13-5-2-0 record at The Hilltop - went on the shelf last August but recently was back on the comeback trail in Ohio...and her last start suggests she'll be ready for action upon arrival locally. (1) CHASE YOU beat cheaper 2 back, but wasn't quite up to the sharp pair that bested her in a quick mile last week - feels like a good spot for her to land another good piece. (6) FOX VALLEY CHARLIZ hasn't been a factor in her last few but drops a bit tonight, and may be able to find her late rally again - good bomb to throw in underneath. (4) AFFLUENT SEELSTER was too far out to get involved in last but the post improvement should put her back in play - another that should be used underneath in exotics. (2) TIPP CITY hasn't been finishing well in her recent start - drops a notch here, and we'll see if that helps her hang around a little better at crunch time. (7) FREE EXCHANGE has been known to save ground and rally for pieces at big prices - throw in for 3rd if spreading in trifectas. (5) HIGH ROLLING A was an easy winner in her first try for the new barn last week, but it was on the lead, in a soft bottom class field - tonight will be a better gauge as to how much she's improved since switching barns. (8) LIVINGINTHEDREAM needs a class drop and much better post to merit consideration.
RACE 8 - (5) THE BANDIT QUEEN N shipped in sharp and was sent off favored against a couple of pretty nice mares....but got way too hot on the front end and was no match late for her two main rivals -
she'll be facing a softer bunch tonight, and has a good chance to make amends. (4) THE CHARGING MOA N is a streaky mare and she's clearly feeling good right now - not sure she can beat the top one, but she'll be able to use her big move to grab a nice piece of this. (3) TELLITSASSYMAE was handled aggressively as the odds on choice on her local debut but faltered in the stretch and weakened to 4th - maybe a little easier trip can produce a better result? (6) BRONZE OVER N blasted to the top last week and never looked back, rattling off a fast mile and winning in impressive fashion (and beating #4) - she'll be a decent price again tonight, and is sharp enough to grab a piece if the trip goes her way. (7) FEELIN RED HOT bottomed out badly chasing from the pocket in last - too classy to ever dismiss completely, but she does seem unlikely from this spot. (1) KAYS DELIGHT threw a dud in last but drops right back in the box, draws inside while dropping, and should be a lot more competitive this time. (2) FRANSCHOEK was a dream trip pocket winner over cheaper in last, but seems up against it vs. these. (8) AMANDEROSA doesn't figure to have much impact from all the way out here.
RACE 9 - (2) IMPRINCESSGEMMA A has her moments, but never developed into the weekly Open mare she seemed destined to be after arriving in the U.S. - she's still a talented performer, though, and should be able to take advantage against tonight's softer field. (5) ANNABETH was off a bad date to last AND got hurt badly when shuffled behind a quitter - may be able to add some value to the exotics. (4) ROLLING GOING GONE was a winner here on 1/20 racing off a month - missed another 5 weeks to her last, but still was charging home with abandon to go from last to 3rd in the stretch - actually gets right back in the box now, and is worth using in exotics, despite the move up. (1) POPPY DRAYTON N is probably better one level down, but the rail is a big equalizer - legit shot for a good piece with any decent trip. (3) BALFAST N charged home last week, rebounding from a pair of weak tries - if the same version shows up tonight, she'll have a chance for another piece. (7) DONGAL RUNDLSCRK N brings a 3 race win streak into this but draws outside while moving up (again) in class - not sure how aggressive she'll be this week. (8) ANGELS PRIDE gets no draw luck again, and it may limit her production (even though sharp now).
RACE 10 - Very tough finale! (5) BETTERB CHEVRON N was 2nd to another Open mare the last time she dropped down to this class - barn has really sent out some sharp ones recently, so we'll give this mare the edge. (6) BYE BYE MICHELLE hit a rough patch for a while but has rebounded and climbed her way back up the class ladder - she'll be a good price, if looking for a longhot possibility in the nitecap. (7) BYE BYE FELICIA has been hard to gauge from week to week lately - on her best, she could easily outrace her odds and grab a piece of this. (2) MONICA GALLAGHER clearly has regressed a bit from the sharp form she had until a couple of starts ago - we'll see if the class drop gets her back on track, or if she's simply going in the wrong direction. (3) CAVIART CHERIE qualified nicely behind a good one, but her 1 for 27 local record over the past 2 years makes her hard to use on top. (8) NORTH STAR IDEAL faltered badly after cutting the mile in last and that will probably result in a very conservative try from Post 8 tonight - tough spot to overcome. (1) A CRAFTY LADY was one of several head scratching winners this barn has sent out this meet off layoffs - seems overmatched at this level...but that last win WAS pretty good! (4) ROCKNROLL ANNIE started off the year very sharp but may be in a little steep at this level - wouldn't be shocked if she races okay here.