The Empire Report - Thursday, March 18, 2021 - Race Analysis
RACE 1 - (7) SEZANA N may offer some value in tonight's opener - hasn't been down at this level for a
while but her last 3 starts (in this class) produced a win and two 2nds, and she certainly catches no killers
tonight - if Zeron can work out a manageable trip, she should have a decent chance to be right there. (5)
FAITHFUL DESIRE is the "x factor" here - she just missed to Lispatty 3 starts back and battled mares
much better than these at Fhd. to start off the new year...but she drops in for a basement tag tonight after a
total clunker 2 back (and then a dull try in last), and it's hard to predict if we'll see a "drop and pop" -- or a
"drop and flop"! (1) BULLVILLEKARLA gets her first good post in ages - she lacks gate speed but should
at least avoid sitting at the back of the pack tonight...and that could land her a decent piece with her late
rally. (4) CHECKERED PAST has been very camera shy the past couple of years but raced much better in
her last pair, and seems to be on the upswing - include her underneath. (2) LAALWAYS AMARTINI was
actually pretty good 2 back but had the misfortune of landing in the same race as the "new and improved"
More Than Many - another that could find her way somewhere onto this ticket. (3) CHECK MACH is a
streaky mare - she was an excellent 1st over winner 3 back, but then no good at all in her last pair - hard to
say which version we'll see tonight. (6) THREEDEE DELIGHT A had been overachieving for weeks until
a weak one in last - may rebound, but it seems that many of her barnmates are struggling now too. (8) ZOE
ELLASEN was favored last week (returning from NJ) but couldn't last on the front end - faces a tall task
from Post 8 tonight.
RACE 2 - (6) HUNTING AS was hurt being behind an early gapper last week and it cost him a chance at
the victory (while still racing very well for 3rd) - never goes a bad mile, handles any trip that comes his
way, and may even get a contested pace in front of him - gets top billing. (5) WITH OUT A DOUBT was a
non factor 2 back (first start for her new barn) but flew off the car at 46-1 in her last, and was just one step
shy of pulling off the big upset - obviously will be a much shorter price now, but hard to not include her off
that impressive effort. (3) BANZAI AS broke before the start here on 1/14 but he has 2 wins and a close
3rd in his 3 other local starts - legit threat here as he returns from Pocono. (1) DESWANSLITTLELORIE
will take plenty of tote action (big barn and driver changes, speed, and the rail) but she MAY be a little
cheaper than a few of the locals - wouldn't be shocked to see her beat these but at 9/5 ML, there seems to be
better value taking a shot against her (at least on top). (2) SWISS HOUSE ONFIRE has done some good
things here and tries very hard - he can also struggle on the YR turns at times, and that will hurt against this
pretty solid bunch - willing to use underneath. (7) KASHA V went an improved mile 2 back and his last
was better than it may look - not a bad bomb to throw in for 3rd/4th. (4) FATHER DUNN was racing well
here for a while but seems to have gone the wrong way lately - will wait for better signs before using again
RACE 3 - (4) CINDERELLA DELIGHT ships in from Ohio with lines that would probably have made her
about 15-1 in here...but since she's now under the care of the "Super Siblings", chances are she'll be the
favorite...and if she improves like so many others have upon entering this very high % barn, she'll have a
good chance to take these wire to wire. (1) DIAMONDTOOTHGERTIE hasn't been on her best game but
she hasn't been "bad" either - the drop to the bottom level tonight may perk her up significantly...and that
may lead to one of her "brush and crush" performances - possibility. (5) J ROCKIN B has been good for
weeks, with 3 wins right on the program - she'll actually be a fair price tonight, so don't hesitate to use her
if you think she may land on a live trip. (6) LETME FLY LOW was sent off as the odds on choice in NJ the
last 2 starts (from Post 9 and 10) but was unable to deliver either time - another that will see her price go
way up now...and is reasonable to consider if searching for some value. (2) WATCH MY LUCK had a
promising first start here 3 back, couldn't quite last as the favorite in her next, then came up empty in last -
total guessing game as to which version we'll see here. (3) ONEIDA BLUE CHIP hasn't clicked at all since
the claim, but finally gets some post relief - we'll see if she can make use of it. (7) MILLWOOD BONNIE
N woke up with a nice mile (14-1) 2 back, but then just backed up badly in last - may rebound, but the poor
draw may slow her down anyway. (8) AUDREY ANN is hard to gauge off her out of town form, but we'll
just pass (and watch)...at least until she draws into a more logical spot.
RACE 4 - (1) ACEFOURTYFOUR ALEX threw a rare dud on 3/4 but was back to her usual solid game in
last - may trip out from this spot, and come out on top of this pretty well matched group. (5) BERAZZLED
ships in sharp from Stga. and will likely go off much shorter than that 6-1 ML price - she does have a
mixed local history, though, and is equally capable of taking these wire to wire...or just giving way and
tiring - the guess here is that she'll come up with a strong effort here. (4) AMERICAN TOUR N has been in
and out in her recent local starts - if she can match the effort she put in last week, she can be right there on
the wire again - but that's a big IF! (3) AL MARS GOT A FEVER was incredibly disappointing upon
arrival 2 back, and just "regular" disappointing in her last (but at least a close 3rd) - she'll probably wake up
and crush this class one of these nights...but in the meanwhile, it's hard to keep taking short prices with her.
(8) IDEAL CLASSIC has gone from finishing on the wire with Matchmaker favorite Alexa Skye just a
couple of months ago, to failing to get a check at the bottom level (last week) - wouldn't be stunned to see
her wake up and contend even from out here, but she'd need to be a pretty big price to be worth considering
for a wager (on top). (6) LADYBELUCKYTONITE has struggled to grab the bit the last couple of starts,
only kicking in very late for small pieces - may find herself too far back to do much damage once again. (2)
ALL ABOUT MADI is still trying to find her form after the long layoff. (7) KEYSTONE NIKKI just isn't
clicking right now, and is in need of a major wake up call
RACE 5 - Good betting race: (6) LYONS WILLIAM has been "sneaky sharp" for a while, but never gets
put into play - gets a driver that's never afraid to race one tonight, so perhaps this guy will get a chance to
pace a little bit tonight - should be a big price, and is worth considering. (8) IM BENICIO A seems to
finally be coming around after struggling to get going in the U.S. for a long time - his last is even better
than it looks on paper and while he'll need to find a way to overcome Post 8, the flip side is that the poor
draw will make him a nice price - another that's worth using. (3) SOLID ASA ROCK has been racing over
his head for a while but drops down now to a level that he's beaten in the past - should be able to have a big
say here. (5) MAJOR BUCKS would be an afterthought in here....except for the fact that he debuts for the
"Super Siblings" tonight, after being claimed last week - as hot as they are, this guy is just 1 for 47 here
over the past 3 yrs....but if anybody can wake him up, it's the dynamic duo! (1) NOX VEGAS BLUECHIP
has a poor local win % but he does pick up pieces, and appears to be returning from PcD in fine form - use
underneath. (2) MARINER SEELSTER was a surprise claim for $25K at PcD (2/13), but seems homesick
after leaving his long-time trainer - just hasn't clicked in his 2 starts for new connections, but we'll see if he
can perk up here at The Hilltop. (7) SPORTSKEEPER is pretty good right now, but another outside draw
may limit him once again. (4) STOP ACTION is struggling now - wait for better signs
RACE 6 - (1) SALLY FLETCHER A couldn't match strides with razor sharp Sandys Beach on the back
side last week (most mares at this level CAN'T), but she did keep coming after being left uncovered (and
pacing her OWN 3rd quarter in :27.3), moving into 2nd and holding well to the wire - figures to trip out
tonight and looms the one to beat...unless (5) MORE THAN MANY elevates her game even more this
week. The latter improved by leaps and bounds off the barn change two back as she effortlessly looped,
then wired the field from Post 8 - was REALLY good again in last, working hard to get the lead (:27.1) and
then holding tenaciously for 3rd, even after getting blown away by Sandys Beach at 3/4s - would be no
surprise at all. (2) COVEREDNDIAMONDS N has 4 wins in her last 8 starts and was re-claimed by the
barn that won with her at this level on 1/21 - won't be easy against the top pair, but she does seem next in
line, should they falter. (8) MOTU MOONBEAM N moves to her 3rd barn in 3 weeks and steps back up in
class in raging form - has the misfortune of drawing Post 8 in a good field, but may still be able to beat a
bunch of these for a good piece. (3) NORMANS MADELINE is somewhat of enigma, delivering a variety
of efforts from week to week - the "good" version can show up late for a piece. (6) ALL ABOUT AMY has
been sharp one level down, but these are much tougher - wait for an easier spot. (4) MILADY DENVER A,
liked most of her barnmates, just isn't clicking at all right now. (7) GIRLS GOT RHYTHM draws Post 7 off
a sick scratch...and hasn't been sharp, regardless
RACE 7 - (5) AIR FORCE HANOVER was an impressive (effortless) winner 2 back, even if vs. easier -
just too far back last week (8 hole) to do better than 3rd, but gets enough post relief here to be able to make
amends....just don't bet the ranch at a short price, as his barn was extremely cold last week(1) WARDAN
EXPRESS A was ok from a no prayer spot 2 back, then not bad at all in last, when forced to make a long
first over move against a very sharp winner (Ideal Jimmy) - should be able to work out a good trip here, and
be a factor from start to finish. (6) AUDI HARE N may add some value to the exotics - ran down a sharp
rival to get the win 2 back, then wasn't bad at all from too far back in last - could easily outrace that 20-1
ML price. (4) SILAS SEELSTER certainly hasn't been "bad", but he also hasn't come close to regaining
that top form from late 2019/early 2020 - he regularly picks up pieces, and could easily do the same
tonight. (2) TIGERS WAY was sent off at even money last week but was pressed hard and came up light in
the stretch - good draw puts him in play for a piece, but note that he's 0 for 15 at YR. (3) WHITTA KER N
is 6-0-0-0 here over the last couple of years but does show some recent good form in NJ - willing to throw
in underneath. (7) WAR DAN DELIGHT N has some decent overall form, but is just 1 for 19 locally and
would surely look better from an inside post in a softer field - maybe a small piece? (8) ARCHANGEL
THREE is struggling AND draws Post 8 - pass for now.
RACE 8 - (7) GOLDEN QUEST N had plenty of success here vs. several tough "NW8PM" mares - had no
trouble transitioning to facing good older mares in NJ. and returns to Yonkers in fine form - not an easy
spot, but that also means a better price...definitely one to use. (2) BRONSKIMACKENZIE A upset this
class 4 starts back, but found the Open mares a little too tough - gets a nice drop along with a good draw,
and figures to make her presence felt in this more reasonable spot. (1) BYE BYE MICHELLE was very
good last week, putting in a sustained rally despite a tough trip - has performed well in these types of spots
in the past, and may be sharp enough to do so again tonight. (5) BETTERB CHEVRON N was 2nd the last
2X she dropped down to this level, and is likely to be a player again tonight - would be no surprise at all.
(3) ROBYN CAMDEN just hasn't been able to find her 2019-20 form so far in 2021 - still good enough to
grab a share, but prefer the top ones for the bigger pieces. (8) A CRAFTY LADY has been terrific since
returning from the shelf, but faces a tough bunch from the worst post, and figures to struggle a bit tonight.
(4) JEWELS FORREAL is good right now, but facing a bunch that seems a bit out of her comfort zone -
wait for an easier spot. (6) MALNIFICENT was a little better last time, but could really use a class drop
RACE 9 - (5) JOSSIE JAMES A is worth a look in a tough race - no chance after a bizarre drive 3 back but
converted a pocket trip into a win in her next, then was trapped all from the final turn to the wire in last, or
would have had a chance for a much better piece - good price for a red hot barn. (3) SCANDALICIOUS
was just ok in that win 2 back but was actually very good for when moving back up to this level in last - has
the back class to do some damage here if she shows up as sharp this week. (6) IM VERY SPECIAL hasn't
been close to her "A Game" lately but it was encouraging to see her rally well from way out of it last time -
she's going to really wake up one of these nights - maybe tonight? (8) SANDYS BEACH is in raging form
and will probably be favored from Post 8....she may be able to just sweep this bunch too BUT her favorite
trip is when she can just hit a gear a rush uncovered on the back side and she may end up with a little road
trouble tonight....making her a bit vulnerable from this spot. (2) AMANDEROSA moves inside and may
land on a decent trip - definitely a chance to outperform that 15-1 ML price. (7) ASHTINI seems a bit
cheap and gets stuck outside again - she was actually pretty good last week, and isn't a bad bomb to throw
in for 3rd/4th. (1) FREE EXCHANGE is helped by the rail draw but she moves up in class and will have to
show that she can hang with these. (4) CHASE YOU faltered moving up to this level in last - may need
easier trips, in an easier field.
RACE 10 - Tough race: (1) ROLLING GOING GONE ended 2020 strong at Chester and has been terrific
here in 2021, as she's held her form while climbing the classes - barn remains hot, and the draw should land
her a nice trip - gets the narrow vote in the finale. (5) BYE BYE FELICIA has been hard to figure from
week to week but ANYTHING this potent pair sends out has to be given major respect right now. (4) PON
DER THE ODDS was well backed for her first try off the layoff and jogged vs. softer off the pocket trip -
on her best game, she can bang heads with these too (6) FEELIN RED HOT is another that's tough to gauge
from start to start but even though she's lost a few steps, she still grabs her share of wins - possibility. (2)
ANGELS PRIDE got lost in the back in her last pair but crushed (cheaper) in her prior two starts - streaky
mare can pop a big one on any given night, but does seem a bit unlikely in this tougher spot, especially
without her favorite pilot. (3) ANNABETH was dull off a bad date 2 back, then no factor in last - may be a
bit off her game right now. (7) ROCKIN THE BOYS A will likely be pretty conservative tonight after
stopping so badly in last. (8) BONTZ N may be okay from the inside against these, but figures to struggle
from all the way out here.