The Empire Report - Thursday, May 13, 2021 - Race Analysis
RACE 1 - NAADA 2021 Spring Series: (1) GOLDEN KRONOS has gotten along nicely with Ciuffetelli
on 2 occasions recently, has a good local history, and should be in line for a nice trip from the pole - gets
the narrow edge in a very competitive Amateur event. (2) MADHATTER BLUECHIP just missed in a leg
of this series up at Monti with Joe Lee at the controls - his overall recent form is solid, and he may end up
with a nice journey from here - definitely worth a look as long as the price is fair. (4) KEYSTONE BLADE
won here with Pennacchio back on 3/25 - won a leg at Monti from Post 8, followed by a close 3rd after
getting parked the mile - last couple not bad either, and he's surely worth considering if sent off anything
close to that 10-1 ML price. (5) RACEACE may be the "best horse" among these, but he's prone to making
breaks and also faces an uncertain trip from this spot - would need a decent price to use him on top. (3)
LADY EAGLE used a live cover trip to pick up 2nd last week, and was claimed from that race - fits as well
as any in here, but the 2-1 ML price is a bit of a turnoff in such a wide open affair. (7) EXARCH has been
sharp for weeks, and comes into this off a pair of front end victories - gets stuck all the way outside, though
and that could make for a rough journey tonight. (6) FIJI is an excellent 6-2-2-1 here in 2021, and was a
winner last week - hard to say what trip he's in store for from Post 6, though!
RACE 2 - (4) ELIZA B made a break here in a NYSS race at 2 but stayed flat at Stga. and Buffalo, where
she picked up 2nds - return qualifier looks terrific, and she's definitely worth a play in her 3YO return. (1)
TRIUMPHUS shocked when 2nd at 70-1 in his career debut at PcD, then made a big, sustained move to
win his next at Chester (at 9/2) - looks like there may be some ability here! (8) DESTINY BLUE CHIP had
been a player in all 3 local tries - has more than enough speed to improve position significantly at the start -
but needs to FINISH better, for a chance at the top prize. (3) ROOKIE SEASON adds Lasix after tiring last
week and that could be a big help - the larger issue is that he got way too hot in last, and will need to relax
to be more effective, (2) DROP THE MIC was ok in a couple of Weiss starts (from too far back), then got
trapped way too long at Stga. last start to have any real chance - could add some value to the exotics here.
(5) KOKOMO was a winner at PcD last week but in a fairly slowish mile - we'll see if the homebred
continues to improve with that win under her belt. (7) WHAT A DAME won her career debut at PcD as the
6/5 choice, but tired badly in a much quicker mile the next week - tough draw tonight, and may have
trouble getting in play. (6) KILAUEA had a few good starts at 2, but is hard to back off that qualifier.
RACE 3 - (1) ROCKIN THE BOYS A was trapped by an early mover last week and never had a prayer - a
few "even" efforts vs. much better prior to that, and tonight finds her dropping to the basement, while
drawing the pole...if she's anything close to "right", this would be a spot she would thrive in. (3) E R
HILLARY was used way too hard from Post 8 last week and gets a pass for tiring - a less taxing trip would
make her a big threat here. (5) FOX VALLEY CHARLIZ hasn't done much outside of that victory on 3/24
but she definitely had more life finishing last week - maybe she's finally ready to back on the upswing? (2)
BULLVILLEKARLA came up with solid efforts in each of her last two starts after a long string of "no
factor" performances - draws inside and could have a late say...at least for a piece. (4) QUITE A DELIGHT
N responded nicely to a nice trip last week to rally for 2nd after struggling for many starts - another that
may be ready to start throwing some better efforts. (7) SHELLIE DE VIE was caught behind a tired leader
(#3) last week and gets a pass - prior efforts were solid, but the outside draw is an issue. (6) CHASE YOU
was empty in her last but may have lost interest in the back - she's won at this level before, if you think she
has a "wake up call" in her. (8) TELL ME A JOKE has been more competitive in her last few, but not sharp
enough to consider strongly from all the way out here.
RACE 4 - (7) HEAT WAVE HANOVER has been solid in almost all her starts this year, and trotted a big
final 3/8ths to finish closely behind the talented Chaptiama last week - faces another sharp Smedshammer
trotter this week (#3), but she'll probably be the better price...and that makes her a decent play. (3) BLUFFI
NER is really starting to come into his own as a 4YO, and is riding a 3 race (blowout) winning streak - has
the post advantage over the top choice, and that may ultimately be the difference - feels like one of them
should take this...with the other one completing a short exacta. (2) HOOLIE N HECTOR was probably
short here on 3/25 making his first start back as a 3YO - won two legs of the Weiss Series after that, and
now returns to YR on Lasix...good chance to grab a nice chunk. (8) DESWANSLITTLELORIE was dead
game in that hard-used 8 hole victory last week but faces a much tougher task tonight - still may be able to
take home a nice piece...IF the trip is kind enough. (4) BREEZING PRAYER kept trotting in his last pair
and ended up with a pair of 2nds - seems more likely for a 3rd/4th tonight. (5) YANKEE GIRLFRIEND
won 7 of 17 last year and has raced well in her 5 Florida starts to begin 2021 - probably fits well enough
here for a chance at a small piece. (6) BAZILLIONAIRE may find himself too far back early on to have
much impact at the end...willing to include for 3rd/4th if the price is long enough. (1) QROWN FASHION
draws best, but does seem a bit overmatched.
RACE 5 - (5) ROCK N PHILLY is the reluctant selection - she was a talented 2 and 3YO but struggled to
really thrive at 4, and she's still winless to start off 2021 - she does move to a new barn for tonight while
landing in a soft local basement field...and that might perk her up enough to summon up the back class to
handle these....but don't bet the rent money at a very short price! (8) ANNABETH would have been the top
choice had she not drawn so far outside - was sent off favored vs. better last week and simply came up 2nd
best to a sharper tripsitter - if Stratton can work out a manageable trip, she may still be able to win from out
here. (2) AMERICAN TOUR N was handled aggressively last week and while not "great", she certainly
was "good" - one of the few realistic possibilities in here. (1) LADY DRIVER shows lines at PPk that
would make her a good fit here, but she's also 0 for 13 on the season - we'll see if the change in scenery
results in a change in fortune. (4) BETTERTHANBRIE paced evenly after a freshening - maybe can tow
along for a small piece? (3) ACEFORTYFOUR DOME raced well for a couple of starts after the 4/1 claim
but has been tailing ever since - needs to find that better form to be a player here. Both (6) SANDY WIN
and (7) KEENE OLIVIA come out of the same race and both were empty that night - hard to like their
chances here with the outside draws.
RACE 6 - Tough race: (6) SALLY FLETCHER A was claimed for $15K on 3/25 then landed in tough
spots, vs. better, in her next few - raced ok adding Lasix at Chester last week, and now returns to YR back
down at the price she was claimed for - one of several that could take this, depending on trip. (1) SLICK
ARTIST A was purchased by a hot barn after beating much cheaper at Chester last week - she's done some
good work here in the past, and her new connections have been known to excel with fresh stock. (2)
BETTERB CHEVRON N was holding her own up at the Open level earlier this year but has fallen on
tough times over the past couple of months - she did wake up to win at PcD 3 back, so it's possible that she
could do the same tonight. (3) TAKE ABIT OF LIFE ships up from Pompano and was probably facing
comparable competition down there - barn has a few racing tonight, so perhaps check to see how their
others do earlier on. (5) ROCKNROLL ANNIE is always capable at this level but she's really just another
player here, so the 5/2 ML makes her a bit unattractive from a wagering standpoint. (4) CLASSY CHAPEL
N gave way and tired into 2nd vs. cheaper last off the barn change - she certainly wasn't bad, but now faces
a much tougher bunch...will need to be much sharper. (7) SCANDALICIOUS sat in the back last week then
charged home to be a close up 3rd - not sure she can replicate that against these, unless things just fall apart
up front. (8) BETCHA BABY was a solid 2nd upon arrival from Canada but made a break in her last, and
now must deal with Post 8 - prefer to wait for a better spot.
RACE 7 - (5) WALTZWITHSIERRAA was handled conservatively in her first U.S. start but roared home
from the top of the lane, rallying from 7th to 2nd - Stratton shows confidence by taking her tonight over #6,
and the assumption is that he'll be putting her in play a lot earlier - not an "easy" spot by any means, but
we'll give her a try tonight. (2) IMPRINCESSGEMMA A has raced well in all her recent local starts and
has a post advantage over the top choice - she's a very legitimate threat, and it would be no surprise at all to
see her come out on top. (1) JIVE DANCING A finally put it all together last week, crushing her rivals
with a dominant 1:52.4 score - she won't be able to just run and hide from these, though, and will likely be
looking at a smaller piece this time. (6) GOLDEN QUEST N is a hard hitter that will appreciate the class
relief from the Open...but who also gets stuck outside a couple of pretty tough rivals - should be able to get
a good piece here, but may have trouble beating the top pair. (4) LUCKY ARTIST A battled this type here
last year, and her most recent PPk lines suggest she still can - willing to include underneath. (3) STOWAW
AY HANOVER isn't hitting on all cylinders right now - maybe she can just save ground and take home a
minor share? (7) NORTH STAR IDEAL needs a better post, in a cheaper class - pass for tonight. (8) BYE
BYE MICHELLE had some pace in traffic last week, but doesn't figure to get close from out here.
RACE 8 - (7) BALFAST N draws her SIXTH horrible post in a row, but she did rally nicely in 2 of her last
3 starts, and gets a class drop for tonight - will need some racing luck for sure, but not a bad week to give
her a look...in a pretty wide open field. (5) CINDERELLA DELIGHT has compiled a strong 7-3-2-1 record
since arriving, and has shown the ability to race from off the pace, if necessary - legit threat if a decent trip
comes her way. (3) MILLWOOD BONNIE N hadn't been good for a long time but showed some sneaky
life 2 back, then pounced on a perfect cover trip to pick up a long overdue victory in her last - takes a step
up here, but may be good enough right now to still do some damage. (1) LADYBELUCKYTONITE finally
found her better form in her last few starts after a bunch of "meh" performances - moves up a notch tonight
while joining a new barn, and may be overbet from this spot...definitely a chance, but not sure there will be
much value here. (4) ANN HILL's only win this year came on the lead, vs. cheaper - not impossible, but
insist on a pretty good price if using her on top. (6) BETABCOOL N is just 1 for her last 21 here, and
seems a bit cheaper than the main players - draw hurts too. (2) MADE OF JEWELS AS had a rough 2020
campaign and her qualifier doesn't look all that encouraging - will just watch, for now
RACE 9 - (5) TELLITSASSYMAE was an excellent 2nd to Normans Madeline 3 back, and that mare was
2nd in last week's Open - followed that up with a pair of very impressive blowout wins and although she's
moving up again tonight, she just seems sharp enough to keep the streak going. (1) BEST HONEY HANO
VER seemed to get disinterested at the back of the pack vs. better last week, but she gets major class relief
here while also drawing the pole - she has a very legitimate chance to give young Tyler Miller his first
Hilltop victory....if not tonight, then some time soon! (3) PAPPY ROCKS just get gapping on the cones last
week (off the claim) and looked ready to back out of the race completely (at 4/5)...before coming back to
life at the head of the lane, and re-rallying for 3rd - not ready to write her off just yet. (4) CHECKERED
PAST drops back down to the level where she was a close 2nd 4 starts down - decent value horse to include
underneath. (2) SEZANA N almost stole one on the front end last week - won't catch THIS field off guard,
but may be able to just sit close and take home a small slice. (6) SUDDEN CHANGE N scored the 7-1
upset over lesser off a perfect trip last time - is forced to double jump tonight, and that figures to limit her
to a minor share (at best). (8) VICIOUS CIRCLE just missed with an aggressive speed try 2 back then
scored easily from the pocket in last - moves up now while also landing Post 8, and that's a tough combo -
even for a sharp mare like her. (7) BONTZ N is capable at this level but likely would need a better post.
RACE 10 - Good finale: (2) PAMMY JO was uncharacteristically hot last week (for her new barn), was
forced to move early and was left with no chance - she has an excellent local history, and was racing very
well against some good mares at Stga. before shipping down...with a couple of adjustments, she can be very
dangerous this week. (1) ASHTINI added Lasix last week (after a pair of total clunkers) and was a much
improved 3rd in a very fast mile - definitely one to include on your tickets from the pole tonight. (4) THE
CHARGING MOA can be forgiven for coming up 2nd best to the currently raging Normans Madeline the
last 2 starts - if things get testy up front, her powerful late rush will have a chance to pay off here. (5)
PONDER THE ODDS won her first start of the year then was totally invisible for 4 starts - took lots of tote
action for her last, and sure enough was back on her game, pouncing on a 2nd over trip to rally by in the
stretch - she can make some noise here if she shows up just as good tonight. (8) MALNIFICENT had Post
8 up in class last week and can be forgiven for being unable to get involved - drops back down to a better
level here, and she's been pretty sharp for a while...chance for a piece. (3) IDEAL CLASSIC was much
better in her last couple, using easy trips to grab a 3rd and a 4th - chance for a similar result tonight with
another easy trip. (7) DIAMONDTEQUILASHOT rebounded from a pair of dull tries to rally by cheaper in
last - tough assignment tonight, though. (8 DIAMONDTOOTHGERTIE is the clear outsider -both literally
and figuratively