The Empire Report - Thursday, April 1, 2021 - Race Analysis
RACE 1 - (6) QUEEN LOSTRIS N needed that Pocono start after missing 2 months - landed in a no prayer
8 hole spot in her YR return, but this seems like a good time for Dube to put her in play - if she's anything
close to her best, she can be a major threat against these. (3) EYE POPPING was very sharp here this fall
but then kept on racing even after falling apart pretty badly - finally got some time off, qualified well vs. a
pretty nice winner, and her barn has been sending out several live horses recently - willing to give her a
look, assuming the price is decent. (1) POPPY DRAYTON N will attract a lot of attention with the class
drop AND rail, but she raced pretty poorly in her last pair, and her usually very reliable barn has really hit
the skids the past few weeks - may come to life quickly against these but at the expected (very) short price,
there could be some value playing against her tonight. (2) FOX VALLEY CHARLIZ used an easy trip in a
soft field to register her first Hilltop win last week - steps up in class now, and will need to be even sharper
to beat these...but still a solid chance to at least grab a decent piece. (4) ACEFOURTYFOUR ALEX was
just "ok" when 2nd last week, and she's been a bit inconsistent lately - may be able to rally late for a small
piece. (7) ANN HILL gave it a good try last week before getting run down by #2 - forced to move up after
failing to beat cheaper for weeks, and draws outside as well - tough spot. (5) ALL ABOUT AMY seems to
do her best racing one level down - will wait for that drop before recommending.
RACE 2 - Good race! (7) BEERTHIRTY K was uncharacteristically flat 2 back so it was no surprise to see
him show up on Lasix for his last - he rebounded immediately, charging through the wire fastest of all (after
losing ground and momentum angling free through the stretch) - will need lots of trip luck from out here,
but he's still worth using if the price is right. (1) CIRCLE OF LIFE AS benefited from a questionable DQ
as he was placed first in his YR debut...but he raced a BIG mile regardless, and his 2021 record now stands
at 6-5-0-1; he's the one to beat for sure, but he also figures to be way overbet in a pretty competitive race -
don't fall in love if the price is too short. (2) SWISS HOUSE ONFIRE has started here 6X and raced well in
most of them, including last week's dead game 8 hole speed try (where he even looked smoother than usual
on the turns) - moves inside for a hot barn, and is absolutely playable. (6) GREAT UNKNOWN always
seemed like he might better from OFF the pace...and his last 2 PcD starts would seem to confirm that -
absolutely fits well here talent-wise, but it's hard to predict his trip from this outside spot - willing to use as
long as the price is juicy enough. (3) CATWALK AS figures to have a bigger say with the post relief but
still seems a bit below the main players in here - maybe 3rd/4th? (5) SWEET SOFIE T ships in looking
good out of town, but is another that may just be a little too cheap - small piece only. (4) BLUFFINER
couldn't kick home with the top ones last week, and seems destined for a similar result tonight.
RACE 3 - (3) MILLWOOD BONNIE N charged home to just miss vs. better 3 back - something wrong in
her next but bounced right back with a solid (no chance) 8 hole try in last - moves inside, and is looking at a
very aggressive try from this spot - major threat tonight. (8) SEZANA N dropped to this level for the first
time in a while last week and charged home through the stretch to be right there 2nd - her previous start in
this class (back on 12/10) was a win, and she has a legitimate chance tonight, even from Post 8....but some
trip luck will be required! (4) AMERICAN TOUR N kicked home strong to just miss 2 back, then finished
up very well in last once she found some room into the stretch - has a chance for a good piece here if the
trip works out. (5) KEENE OLIVIA paced a big 3rd quarter to get close to contention last week and can be
forgiven for not having a lot left for the stretch - not sure she can beat these, but definitely has a chance to
land somewhere on the ticket. (1) CHECKERED PAST seems below the main players here, but the rail
draw at least gives her a chance to take home a minor share. (2) THREEDEE DELIGHT A was going well
for many weeks but like all of her barnmates, just started to fall apart recently - maybe the move back
inside will perk her back up a bit? (6) ALL ABOUT MADI just hasn't been able to really sharpen after the
long layoff, and its possible that she just needs easier at this point in her career - tough to like from Post 6.
(7) FEAR MY SHADOW was outkicked in the stretch after a good trip in last, and faces an uphill battle
from Post 7 tonight.
RACE 4 - (2) FREE EXCHANGE beat this class back on 1/21 and has been holding her own vs. better in
recent starts - finally gets a drop, draws inside, and meets nothing too scary in here - deserves top billing.
(5) ACEFORTYFOUR DOME is the "x factor" tonight - has been facing some solid NW6 types but made a
break in her last, and now drops in for the bottom tag...are her connections looking for a spot where she has
a chance to grab a win or are they HOPING to lose her after that last miscue - suppose we'll find out tonight
(3) FAITHFUL DESIRE dropped in for the bottom tag last week and was unable to hang on, despite having
things all her own way - was claimed that night and now goes for a new barn...not 100% sure on what to
expect from her! (4) AFFLUENT SEELSTER has had her problems pacing through turns at times so it
wasn't all that shocking to see her offstride after gunning to the top in the slop last week - guessing she'll be
handled a bit more conservatively tonight, and she does have a chance here if the trip goes her way. (1)
DEUCES FOR CHARITY hasn't been a consideration for the top spot for ages, but she does grab her share
of smaller pieces from spots like this (see last week) - ok for 3rd/4th. (6) LADYBELUCKYTONITE just
never seems to grab the bit until way too late - considering for a minor share only. (7) DEWAR N SODA
was short off the layoff last week - could be tighter now, but the post is the real killer. (8) TELL ME A
JOKE has been struggling for weeks, and it would be hard to count on a form reversal for tonight.
RACE 5 - (1) DIAMONDTOOTHGERTIE didn't have quite enough pop to go by the leader to the final
turn last week, got stuck battling all through that bend and it left her a little short at the end - she might be
tighter tonight (was off 3 weeks to her last), draws another rail, and we'll give her the narrow edge in a race
with several possible live players. (4) J ROCKIN B has been going strong miles for weeks but just never
looked right last start (for a new barn) - was claimed and moves to yet another new barn, and can be a legit
threat if she bounces back to her "A Game" tonight. (7) ONEIDA BLUE CHIP hasn't been able to leave the
gate in 4 starts since being claimed - lands yet another bad post tonight bit Dube may just throw caution to
the wind and finally look to send her - could be a very live bomb if that happens. (5) CINDERELLA
DELIGHT was hammered at the windows (as expected) debuting for the "Super Siblings" last week but
was hounded by #1 and gave way in the stretch...after looking pretty rocky gaited for much of the mile -
always a chance they'll make some adjustments and she'll be much better tonight....but insist on a better
prices if giving her another shot. (8) AMANDEROSA drops down to this level for the first time since
beating this class back on 11/19....also from Post 8 -- chance for some "deja vu", but really doesn't seem
sharp enough right now for more than a smaller piece. (3) LETME FLY LOW has now burned $$ on both
sides of the river, tiring despite a pocket trip in last - will wait for a better effort before considering. (2)
GIRLS GOT RHYTHM has only showed up once in a blue moon for a long time now - sticking with others
(6) LAALWAYS AMARTINI moves outside after coming up empty from the pole in last.
RACE 6 - (2) QUITE A DELIGHT N may be able to pull off a mild upset here - she's been finishing strong
week after week, and there's the possibility of a contested pace developing in front of her - if she's close
enough turning for home she may be able to rally by these at the end (3) BERAZZLED made her YR return
a winning one, rallying off cover to roll on by in the stretch - steps up one notch but she's sharp enough
right now to handle it - goes for 3 straight, and just may get it. (4) MOTU MOONBEAM N has 2 wins and
3 seconds in her last 6 starts and comes into this off a tough, narrow beat in her last - another with a solid
chance, depending on how the race plays out. (5) SOMETHING REEL fits nicely with these but figures to
have some speed inside of her, and that may leave her with a less than ideal trip - possible, but prefer a few
others a bit more. (1) SHES SPORTY A was sharp down in Florida and can be excused for that last debacle
over in NJ - she won 6 of 15 starts here in 2019-20, but most of those were vs. a bit easier - willing to use
underneath. (6) IDEAL CLASSIC used a good trip in an easy field to finally make her way back to the
Yonkers winner's circle (after a long drought) - wouldn't be a shock in here, but she does have several live
ones to her inside, and that may leave her with a smaller piece this week. (7) AL MAR GOT A FEVER
found a field she could just outrun last week after burning a lot of $$ in her precious two starts - steps up
and lands outside, and that has us looking elsewhere. (8) COVEREDNDIAMONDS M was unable to
overcome the outside draw last week and finds herself in a similar boat tonight.
RACE 7 - (2) MACZAFFAIR N threw a major dud 3 back but looked much better in her last couple - takes
a big drop out of the Matchmaker Series and while she faces a couple of tough rivals in here, she still gets
top billing. (3) DONGAL RUNDLSCRK N went from looking good beating the bottom class at the end of
January to holding her own here in the Preferred 3 back, followed by a couple of very sharp Fhd. tries
against the boys - on a major form spree right now, and can't be taken lightly. (1) BRONSKIMACKENZIE
A wasn't embarrassing herself in the Open and is another that taking a nice drop tonight (while staying fit
with a qualifier across the river) - should be a threat from start to finish. (4) DANCE CLUB takes a big
jump from "NW PM" races to facing these tough older mares but she's sharp right now, and may be able to
tow along for a minor share. (6) IM VERY SPECIAL has been off her game for a while but did manage to
use every ounce of a perfect trip last week to win from the pocket (vs. easier) - maybe she'll gain some
confidence and start to work her way back up the ladder? (5) FEELIN RED HOT got up from the pocket 2
back then saw the trip sitter get up to nail HER in last - clearly racing well now, but she'll be facing a much
tougher bunch this week, and may have a few leaving hard to her inside - feels like a tough spot for her. (8)
BYE BYE FELICIA was a game pocket winner in last (over #5) but moves all the way outside and may be
a spectator from this spot. (7) ANNABETH doesn't figure to be able to reach from Post 7, up in class
RACE 8 - Good race: (2) NORTH STAR IDEAL made up a ton of ground just to get into contention last
week and still continued to pace well to the end - barn sent out some live ones recently, and this mare just
may trip out with the move inside - decent value play. (3) BEST HONEY HANOVER shipped in from The
Swamp and was a very game winner here 2 starts back - was a solid 4th at Fhd. in last (facing good males
and Dongal Rundlscrk N, with a lesser pilot in the bike), and looms a very solid threat returning to YR. (1)
RACINE BELL was a very solid NYSS player at 2 and 3, and was been doing fine work at Stga. to close
out 2020, and also since returning as a 4YO in March - will look to take these coast to coast and just may
do so - but will also be overbet. (4) A CRAFTY LADY was 2nd to #3 two starts back, then was in a no
chance spot in last - gets some post relief, and is a decent value horse to include in exotics. (8) DIAMOND
TEQUILASHOT is one of several invaders we'll be seeing from this very high % Ohio barn in the coming
days - may be in too tough a spot for tonight, but keep an eye on her (and her barnmates) over the next
couple of weeks. (6) SANDYS BEACH wasn't able to get involved last week, and certainly unable to
replicate the outstanding wins of the previous 2 weeks - may be in a similar spot tonight. (7) ANGELS
PRIDE is eligible to perk up and reverse form at ANY time - but this just doesn't feel like one of those
spots. (5) BUZINGA N debuts for a new barn, sans Lasix, and off 5 months - will just watch, for now.
RACE 9 - Another wide open race: (2) JEWELS FORREAL was a good 2nd from Post 7 4 back - charged
home to win her next, had crisp pace finishing for 4th after that, then was loaded again in her last but never
found the room she needed to stretch her legs - gets significant post relief tonight, and that may be enough
to get her home on top. (3) BYE BYE MICHELLE was a very good 3rd vs. better 2 back, but not up for the
first over try in last - drops in class tonight and if that combines with a better trip, she'll be a formidable
contender. (6) JOSSIE JAMES was almost able to step up and beat this class last week, her front end try
coming up just a little short at the end - definitely sharp enough now to be a threat once again, (4) HIGH
ROLLING A has looked much better in her new barn, and just had no trip in last after a terrible trip -
chance to be right there with a better journey. (1) MORE THAN MANY has been a different animal since
the recent purchase but she has to move up yet again, and may be pushing her limits at this level - rail draw
may help her grab a small piece. (5) BRONZE OVER N was a very sharp winner 3 back, rallied nicely in
her next but was unable to get involved in her last - the post relief helps, but the 3 weeks off probably
doesn't. (7) SALLY FLETCHER A was good 2 back and razor sharp in her last, but she goes for a new barn
now and gets stuck far outside - may be facing an uphill battle from this spot. (8) THE CHARGING MOA
N looked like a winner last week but hung on the money - will have to pass 'em all from Post 8
RACE 10 - (4) BETTERB CHEVRON N elected to just tour the oval from Post 8 last week, perhaps in
anticipation of tonight's class drop - gets post relief as well, and the guess is that we'll see a much more
aggressive try tonight...and that would give her a solid chance to come out on top. (1) MALNIFICENT was
racing against much better for a few starts after returning from Ohio - looked a bit better the last 2 weeks,
and should be able to work out an excellent trip from this spot - live player tonight. (3) ASHTINI normally
spends her time facing lesser but she's on her game right now, and has a chance to pick up another good
piece at this elevated level. (2) E R HILLARY failed as the 2/5 choice here 2 back but wasn't....just overbet
- no reason she can't have a say tonight, and go home with a nice chunk. (7) ROLLING GOING GONE had
been very sharp....so last week's disappointing front end try was a bit of a puzzler - this is a much tougher
spot but at 15-1 ML, she has to be worth including in exotics. (6) BALFAST N used every bit of her pocket
trip to win off the dropdown in last - moves back up now, lands outside, and is likely looking at a much
smaller share. (5) ROYALTYWESTHO has enjoyed some local success in the past but doesn't seem to be
hitting on all cylinders right now - prefer others. (8) SHECOULDBEGOOD N was a "trip 2nd" vs. lesser
last week - now steps up and draws Post 8, and that's a bad combination.