Tuesday Empire Report

soaofny • May 11, 2021

The Empire Report - Tuesday, May 11, 2021 - Race Analysis

RACE 1 - (3) BIDEN NATION put in a nice rally for 2nd from well back in his pari mutuel debut at PcD - took 5 weeks off and requalified decently, suggesting that there was no major problem (if any at all) - may be ready to graduate against a (short) field of hard to gauge rivals. (4) HAPPY CAMPER landed in a no prayer spot for his 3YO debut but really wasn't bad at all - should be a very good fit here and does have a legitimate shot...but hard to get excited about a wager at that 2-1 ML price (1) SPINNAKER HANOVER picked up a 2nd and a 3rd in his first 2 starts in 2021 before getting stuck too far back in his next - draws the pole, and that gives him a chance in a field full of youngsters still finding their way. (2) SOUTHWIND GOLIATH showed some potential in his first couple of 2YO starts (in Canada) but quickly tailed off - hasn't done much of anything since returning at 3, but does land in a new (sharp) barn for tonight - might show up with a big one. (5) A B COLLINS is the latest addition to a barn that keeps adding new members - hasn't shown much (so far) and will need to improve quickly to have any chance. (6) RIDEAU SUNSHINE also joins a new barn but has been sent off at long odds in most starts while compiling at 0 for 15 record


 RACE 2 - (3) OLD TOWN ROAD wasn't bad in his lone NYSS try last year but opted to drop into the Excelsior A races instead, and picked up a win and two 2nds - return 3YO qualifier in Ohio looks solid, as does his prep over at Chester last week...will hop on board as he begins his 2021 campaign tonight. (7) SARANAC BLUE CHIP was a solid 2nd here behind odds-on favorite The Cookie Monster on 4/20 - raced well again here in his last, but a tough trip (in a much better field than this) left him a bit short at the end - he's held his own in the Weiss Series at PcD, and just seems like a very viable longshot here (at 12-1 ML). (1) SOLID ALIBI took a 1:53.2 mark as a 2YO, and his return qua. looks fine - barn always seems to race live ones here at YR, but it's hard to say if this guy is better over a bigger track - guess we'll find out more tonight. (2) THINKING OF SLIM added Lasix in Canada on 4/1 and delivered the 24-1 upset - not sure what to make of his qualifier here last week, but he definitely has to be seen as a threat here...at least for a good piece. (4) KEYSTONE NOLAN broke in his first local qualifier but was a winner in his next - his 1 for 21 record last year (Canada) is a concern, though. (8) AIR GUITAR has been facing better and seems like a good fit here - not sure he can overcome the draw, however. (6) HURRIKANE GEORGIE has some ability but broke trying to leave the gate last week - guessing he'll be getting a conservative trip tonight. (5) DANCING JOE is hard to gauge off his 2YO lines and 3YO qualifier - will just watch, for now


RACE 3 - (2) LUCIANO N hasn't been in this cheap since 3/23...and he was a front end winner that night - not bad in either of his last two from no-chance spots, and the move inside (along with the class drop) should perk him up tonight - very legit contender. (3) HUDSEN A wasn't bad last week but was hurt by a less than stellar trip - he definitely fits with these, and would probably have been the top choice had a catch driver been listed...but he still may pull it off with his owner on board. (7) OHIO VINTAGE has a solid 6-2-0-2 local slate, and this field is definitely in his comfort zone - won't be easy from Post 7, but he still is worthy of consideration at a good price. (4) EDDARD HANOVER has seen his form pick up a bit (in PA) since dropping a bit in class - he's won here before, and is another that's worth a look at the right price. (1) WESTERN HILL figures to be in contention all the way from this spot but he's 7-0-0-1 here (last 2 yrs.) and will probably end up overbet - willing to use underneath. (5) ZACH MAGUIRE N raced better last week, even if helped by a nice trip - not ready to consider on top, but definitely willing to use on the bottom of exotics. (6) BLATANTLY BEST raced better last week, but his overall form is still lacking - maybe a minor share? (8) TOPVILLE OLYMPIAN has raced well here in the past but draws Post 8 off a bad date - will wait for a better spot.


RACE 4 - (3) BELTANE A went his best mile in some time 2 back then had no chance in his last (8 hole) - should have a big chance here with the drop (and move inside), but note that he's already lost several times at this level in the past, before going overboard at a short price. (8) ZIGGY SKY did look to leave last week but was forced to retreat to last, and his fate was sealed at that point - he CAN beat these if Bongiorno can hustle him away quickly tonight, and is definitely worth including on your tickets. (2) BORDER CONTROL A shows lines at PPk that would probably make him a live player here - he's won his fair share here in the past, and is not out of the question upon arrival from Florida. (4) TOM ME GUN N showed some improvement last week off the class drop, and drops one more notch tonight - just 1 for 22 at YR, but does have at least a shot against these. (1) DRINKA BEER has been struggling for a long time, and would be hard to use on top, even from the pole. (6) MIDNIGHT LIGHTNING has been picking up only small pieces vs. cheaper at Fhd., and was 16-0-1-1 here last year - minor share? (5) LONDON SEELSTER just keeps gapping badly week after week - need to see some better signs before endorsing, (7) TALENT SOUP doesn't figure to get anywhere near the action.


RACE 5 - (3) TREVORS ACE had a couple of decent starts in the M Life Series before getting stuck in the back for a couple of weeks - really picked up his game at PcD during the Weiss Series, racing well enough to qualify for the final, then missing by only a nose - catches a couple of solid foes for his YR return but he should actually be a fair price, and is definitely worth using. (1) SOCRATES BLUE CHIP was handled conservatively in his local debut but was still an excellent 3rd from Post 8 - he displayed a MAJOR brush in each of his next 2 starts, pacing by the leaders in blazing fast 3rd panels to score each time...he'll be facing considerably tougher this week, so we'll see if his big move can hold up as well against these. (5) MAJOR BEAN was sharp in both local tries, winning one and coming up 2nd best in the other - he fits very nicely here, and will surely make his presence felt. (2) MOXLEY added Lasix for his last (at Monti) after tiring badly here and rebounded immediately - has shown enough ability for a chance at a good piece here. (4) ART NUKEM put in a solid effort vs. older foes here 2 back for a good 4th, then was a close 3rd at Stga. in his last - definitely playable underneath. (6) BEACH FIRE K moves to a hot barn for tonight but does seem to be a notch below the top ones - outside draw won't help. Both (7) BRAZEN BRAZILLIAN and (8) GAMBLINGTERROR would have a chance at a piece had they drawn inside, but both figure to be damned if they leave, damned if they don't from these outside slots.


RACE 6 - (1) MAROMA BEACH is the reluctant choice here - his current form is uninspiring, but he seems to sense when he's in an "easy" spot, and seems to save his best efforts for those nights - will probably get to cut this mile, and that would give him a decent chance to outlast these. (5) GLACIS goes 2nd time with Lasix here and had no prayer at all in the first start - he's a lazy closer with a terrible local win %, but he does have a legitimate chance against these...just hard to take a short price on him! (7) KEY ADVISOR was facing mostly better before taking a month off (and re-qualifying solidly - if he can get involved without being used too hard, he'd probably have a shot to win....at 12-1 ML, he certainly deserves a look. (3) IWONTDOTHATAGAIN made a break 2 back off the claim, then was handled conservatively in his last - might be a little better tonight, and not a bad one to throw in for 3rd/4th. (2) LUCK N ROLL K ships in off a blowout win in NJ but that was vs. cheaper - steps up now, and he's 0 for 11 locally. (4) SOHO LEVIATHAN A dug in gamely to beat cheaper last week - steps up now, but can still take home a piece with an easy enough trip (6) BLUEBIRD RECON caught a weak bunch upon arrival from Ohio and Brennan was able to steal a win with the help of a :59 opening half - won't have quite the same easy trip tonight, though. (8) KASEY JOHN A had things all his own way dropping to the bottom level last week and still couldn't get it done - steps up and lands Post 8 tonight, so we'll stick with others.


RACE 7 - (3) ON THE VIRG beat this class 2 back, and also beat them (handily) back on 1/29 (then beat a NW10000 field the next week) - won't offer much value here, but somebody will have to improve on their current form to beat him. (2) GHOST DANCE is winless on the year but he raced well a few times and does get a barn switch for tonight - maybe HE can elevate his game enough for a chance at the top prize? (5) MACH IT SO isn't the most reliable player at this point in his career, and his grind to the $3M mark has definitely slowed down a bit - his barn has been sending out a few live ones lately, so maybe the classy old veteran can find a big one for tonight? (4) YAYAS HOT SPOT N actually held his own in a couple of Borgata starts but has actually performed worse when facing lesser - it would hardly be a surprise if he was able to beat these, but the barn has been way too cold since early March to use on top if not a pretty big price (they're using different drivers now....maybe that will help snap them out of this elongated cold spell). (1) SOUTHWIND MOROCCAN picked up a 2nd the last time he raced at this level - draws best, and is one to include underneath. (8) OFFICIAL DELIGHT moves to a high % barn off the claim, but lands Post 8 and his 1 for 38 record over the last 2 years is hardly inspiring - willing to throw in for 3rd, and watch for signs of improvement. (6) BETTER UP moves to a new barn after a private purchase but he may be too cheap for these - we'll find out more tonight. (7) CAMPORA N picked up a rare YR victory off the perfect trip last week - very tough spot tonight, though.


RACE 8 - (3) DON DOMINGO N is quite at home at this level and gets his first decent post in a long time - has maintained good form despite a bunch of bad spots, and this is a good week to hop on board. (5) CLASSIC PRO actually did a nice job holding 3rd after the top two ran away from the others in the hot 1:51.4 mile - barn sent out a scary Fine Diamond in the last race on Monday...maybe this guy will be ready for a big one too? (2) DANCIN DRAGON was all out to win his last two but may be gaining confidence with each victory - he's beaten much better than these in the past, so it would hardly be a shock if he was able to take another. (4) MACINTOSH N has been very solid week after week - not sure what trip he's looking at tonight but if it's a good one, he could land somewhere in the exotics. (1) BILBO HANOVER was a 14-1 form reversing winner 2 back, then almost pulled off a 39-1 upset in his last - hard to leave him out of the gimmicks in his current form. (6) NVESTMENT BLUECHIP was ok in last after scoring a perfect trip win 2 back - has struggled up at this level recently, however, and the outside draw won't help his chances. (8) CAROLINA MAGIC was a sharp winner last week after a series of solid tries leading up to that victory - barn sent out a big priced winner on Monday night, but this guy seems up against it from all the way out here. (7) ALEPPO HANOVER needs a better post in a much easier class


RACE 9 - Good race! (3) BLUE CREW has been doing good work since adding Lasix, and may end up with a nice trip in his YR return - if the pace gets contested up front, he may find himself in the right spot to make his late kick pay off. (1) TELL THEM LOU was on and off the bit last week but kept on trying and was right there late after a pocket trip - may get a similar journey tonight, and perhaps he'll be able to take full advantage this time. (5) LEVINE really had no excuse last week, but it's not like he raced "bad" - his overall form has been ultra consistent, and hopefully Zeron will handle him aggressively from this spot. (6) GENIUS MAN has been very sharp for weeks - if nobody leaves between him and the rail horse, he has a chance to hit the top and take these a long way. (8) SEA OF LIFE has been very good in PA the last few weeks, and he's clearly a good fit here - he also has Post 8 on a half mile track, so there's no guarantee he'll even be able to get into the hunt. (4) SO MANY ROADS loves when he can just sit to the stretch and charge home...and that's how he scored the victory last week - any week he lands on that trip gives him a chance at the upset. (7) QUAGMIRE BLUECHIP has been razor sharp for weeks, but may find himself coming from too far back this time. (2) BETTOR AT HIGHTIDE just hasn't been able to get it done at this level - he wouldn't be a shock, but others in here just seem more appealing


RACE 10 - (3) KEYSTONE DAKOTA has elevated his game dramatically since the barn change 4 back and now adds Lasix as he ships down to tackle the tougher local stock - willing to gamble that he's good enough to handle it. (4) SUMTHINBOUTIM is back in peak form, and clearly the one to knock off here - if there's room to use two horses on your ticket, he's the other one you'll want to include. (1) SAILBOAT HANOVER returns from Chester off a front end score, but he's 0 for 7 locally and seems a notch below the top ones - suppose he could pull off a mini upset, but he definitely seems more likely for a smaller share. (2) MILLENNIAL ships up from PPk and his form suggests that he'll be able to hang with these - include him underneath in exotics. (6) NOME HANOVER was a solid 4th returning from PcD - tough draw tonight, but still a chance to pick up 3rd/4th, (5) HURRIKANEKINGJAMES toured the oval from Post 8 in his 4YO return - gets a bit of post relief tonight, and may be able to stick a little closer. (8) IDEAL ARTILLERY, like a few of his barnmates, has tailed in his last couple - tonight's draw will make it even tougher for him to get back on track. (7) PANTHER TIME really needs a better draw to contend even for a minor piece.

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