The Empire Report - Tuesday, March 30, 2021 - Race Analysis
RACE 1 - Short field, but still a tough race! (3) COME ON RAAGS showed lines last summer (upstate and
Canada) that could definitely beat these but hasn't been able to deliver for his current trainer since returning
in Feb.- last start at PcD does look more promising, though, and Bartlett is listed tonight - not a bad week to
give him a try. (3) WELL DONE SON won 3 races at Pompano this winter but hasn't done anything in
either start since shipping north (but well bet both times) - maybe tonight HE puts it all together? (2)
MOXLEY shows lines up in Canada that would make him a legit player here, but he dull last week in NJ
racing for a new barn - could have been short off the bad date, though, and he's eligible to be sharper this
time - possibility. (6) REST ASSURED draws the worst post with his trainer in the bike...but his form is
actually better than a bunch of these, and he definitely shouldn't be 20-1 ML - willing to use underneath. (5)
DILLINGER seemed ok after coming back for his 3YO season but quickly regressed - will need a major
wake up call. (1) YER SO BAD is just 1 for 22, and that win was a 2:01 mile at Fhd. - prefer others.
RACE 2 - (2) LIMERENCE has definitely tailed off from his run of top efforts this winter...but he's still
good enough to beat THIS field even in his current form - really shouldn't have any excuses tonight. (5)
CHIEF JUSTICE went a couple of big miles here in January - recent NJ form hasn't been as good, but he's
faced better in most of those starts - should perk up nicely in this much easier spot. (3) MUFASAAS had
been going evenly week after week, but used one well timed move to come up a winner last week - gets to
stay in the same class (eligible at time of entry), and he should be able to grab another good piece tonight.
(1) LADY EAGLE is well off her best game, and disappointed badly after cutting the mile (in this class)
last week - she'll jump up and beat these eventually...but guessing that it won't be tonight. (6) THE ROYAL
POZE beat this class on 1/20 and returns from Stga. off a nice win - draws outside his main foes, however,
and that will likely limit him to a smaller share. (4) MASSAMILLION failed regularly at the bottom level
at Nfd., and hasn't done much since shipping up to PcD - maybe a minor share? (7) MISS YOU KELLY
and (8) SEVEN KNIGHTS have both been uninspiring lately, and now draw the two worst posts
RACE 3 - (2) WINNING LINC is prone to throwing total clunkers...but his "best" effort is enough to beat
this suspect group - Zeron opts for #3 but that may actually work out well, as Bartlett has gotten along with
this guy in the past - giving him top billing...and hoping he shows up in a racing mood. (6) DEEDENUTO
A benefited greatly from a ground saving trip in last but also showed better life than in his previous 2 starts
- drops to the bottom level now, and he's certainly worth a look at 15-1 on the ML. (5) BILBO HANOVER
is 0 for 19 here over the past 3 years, but has raced well in many of those losses - overall recent (out of
town) form is good, and maybe he can finally get off the Yonkers schneid tonight. (3) IWONTDOTHATA
GAIN raced conservatively off a sick scratch last week but looked ok coming over the wire - another live
longshot if you're spreading a bit. (7) THEFREEDOMFIGHTERN definitely fits with this bunch but he's
winless in his last 16 local starts and lands Post 7 - demand a nice price if using him on top. (8) SOUTHWI
ND MOROCCAN had been no good at all since the barn change in Feb. but did come up with an improved
effort in last - stuck with Post 8 tonight, though, and unappealing for a wager as the (silly) 5/2 ML choice.
(1) KILLER MARTINI can be excused for last week (broken equipment) - but forgiving him for all the
disappointing miles over the last 2 years is another story - not impossible, but definitely offers no value. (4)
ART HISTORY would need to improve considerably to threaten for any major piece here.
RACE 4 - (1) IM BENICIO A struggled for a long time after arriving in the U.S. to get into a groove but
seems to finally have gotten there - raced well twice from tough spots after a nice qualifier, and this may
finally be the spot for him to grab his first victory in this country. (5) BALLERAT BOOMERANG was
banging heads with much better just weeks ago, and holding his own - tailed off for a few starts but last
week was a nice step back in the right direction, and the barn has been showing better life lately as well -
legit threat here. (3) THE MOONSHADOW N still throws some bad steps in his local efforts but has
looked much better than in some of his tries here in the past - fits nicely with these, and figures to have a
say in the outcome - but that 9/5 ML price will probably hurt any possible value he might have had. (2)
SOMWHERENBROOKLN N upset the 20s here back on 2/8 but hasn't done much since - inside draw
gives him a shot a small piece of this. (6) KNOCKING AROUND was up the track in last but had a trio of
decent effort prior to that - willing to throw in for 3rd/4th. (8) ABRAXAS BLUES A returns sharp from
Fhd. but although he did wire a field from post 8 last week, it seems pretty unlikely that he can replicate
that type of effort against this type of competition - prefer to wait for a better spot. (7) PLAY THE FIELD
catches a good NW5000 field and draws outside - don't see him reaching tonight. (4) CARTERS CAPER
ships in from Monti and seems overmatched (and was 4-0-0-0 here last year).
RACE 5 - (6) QUAGMIRE BLUECHIP was a sharp rallying 3rd upon arrival here on 3/2 then kicked
home strong to win his next pair - he squeezes into this class one more time (barely!) and has a chance to
take home one more win check...as long as he lands in a decent outer flow. (4) WALK IT TALK IT came
up with a much better effort last week, finishing 2nd to the top choice after doing the work first over - barn
has definitely started to come back to life recently, and perhaps this guy can trip out and grab a win. (5)
BRAZEN BRAZILLIAN cut the mile as the favorite last week and definitely wasn't on his best game,
finishing 3rd (behind the top pair) - he'll be a better price tonight, and does have a chance to bounce back
with a better mile. (2) SHINY BLACK BEAMER was a solid Ohio Fair horse and joins one of our top
barns to begin his 4YO season - perhaps the tote board will offer some clues? (1) GAMBLINGTERROR
can be a frustrating horse both for his general inconsistency, along with his 3 for 60 record - he's in a great
spot (at least for a piece) IF he brings one of his better efforts tonight. (7) SOCIAL THEORIES gets class
relief as he drops from the series, and he's in pretty decent form too - the knocks are Post 7, and his 2 for 33
career slate - using underneath only. (3) VILLAGE CHAMP is better than he was, but still seems a way off
from challenging for a good piece. (8) ROLL WITH DOM seems too far out to threaten.
RACE 6 - (6) LISBURN put in an extended rally 2 back to finally pick up his first local win - had plenty of
pace finishing from an impossible spot in last and while this is not exactly an ideal spot, he may be able to
beat these if the trip goes his way - decent value play. (7) TIGER BARON draws his 5th straight terrible
post but at least he's getting some class relief tonight (while still in "sneaky good" form) - another that will
offer good value, and is worth using on your tickets. (3) IDEAL COWBOY is the "x factor" tonight - was
on the shelf for 6 months and not a factor in his first start back (at Fhd.) but on his best, he could surely
handle these - could go either way! (4) LUCIANO N landed in a soft spot last week, had everything go his
way and was able to beat the bottom class - would normally pass on the step up, but his barn IS going a bit
better right now...consider. (1) GHOST DANCE does his best work one level down but draws best on the
move up and was a nice 2nd (to #4) at 20-1 last week - worth including in exotics. (2) MAROMA BEACH
has a couple of wins at the bottom level recently but tends to struggle when he moves up - wouldn't shock,
but hard to endorse as the 9/5 ML choice. (5) CAROLINA MAGIC wasn't into the first over trip last week
but his overall form has been pretty solid - ok for a piece. (8) SOHO LEVIATHAN N has been dull in his
last couple and now draws Post 8 - pass for tonight
RACE 7 - (1) IDEAL JIMMY was a sharp front end winner 3 back, then simply in a bit over his head in
the Borgata series for a couple of starts - didn't embarrass himself, though, and will get to control the action
tonight with the rail draw -- the road to the winner's circle runs through him. (5) IMSTAYNALIVE may
add some value to the exotics - doesn't look attractive on paper, but he did show some sneaky life finishing
in last, and his barn has started to come to life again. (7) CHRISTEN ME N has $2.3M in the bank but the
13YO still has life in those legs, and is looking very good for his current trainer - steps up off a very game
victory, and may be able to be a player tonight too...although the 2-1 ML price makes him less appealing.
(2) DENVER SEELSTER has been ultra consistent, should get an easy, close up trip and would be hard to
not include underneath. (6) DON DOMINGO N has been sharp most of the year, even from tough spots -
he's another that may add some value to the exotics. (4) MAJOR OFFENSE may be on the cheaper side,
but it's hard to knock his form - another sharp player in a race that's full of them. (3) TREASURE MACH
comes into this is fine form, even if slightly cheaper - a rail skimming trip would give him a shot at a
minor award. (8) MACHEASY A was hampered by the draw in last, and is facing deja vu tonight.
RACE 8 - (3) MIKES Z TAM was 3rd to Pyro and Arties Ideal 3 back, had good pace from an impossible
spot in his next, and finished up sharply again in last, after leaving himself with no real chance after a poor
getaway - have to believe we'll finally see a more serious effort tonight with the drop and move inside (on
his best, he could surely handle these). (4) YAYAS HOT SPOT will take plenty of action dropping from the
series but note that he got beat cutting the mile in this class just 3 starts down - a threat for sure, but won't
offer much value. (2) VELOCITY KOMODO was in the process of going a big mile 2 back when he broke
on the final turn but made up for it quickly with last week's dominant win - steps up a peg, but still a solid
threat for a nice chunk. (5) MYKINDACHIP is well off his best game but he remains a solid player at this
level, especially with his early speed - include underneath. (7) MACH IT SO was well backed and well
meant in last but just couldn't keep it going on the front end - Bartlett may look to leave for a spot...and that
would at least give him a chance at a piece. (8) AMERICAN BOY N figured to have a big chance last week
but disappointed after cutting the mile - draws Post 8 now, and likely looking at only a minor share from
out here. (1) BIG BAD BILL draws best but does seem a bit overmatched against several of these. (6) KEY
ADVISOR hasn't looked sharp in his last couple and now moves outside.
RACE 9 - (1) MISTER REBBILY A was stuck way outside in his last pair but if you go down three lines,
you'll see where he took these wire to wire as the 4/5 choice - we may be looking at an encore performance
from the same spot tonight. (3) IDEAL ARTILLERY rattled off 3 impressive wins here in Sept./Oct then
shipped over to Chester where he was 2nd best to the outstanding Nicholas Beach - raced once more before
going on the shelf for nearly 5 months, but his return qualifier looks solid, and he just may be ready to go
right out of the box - check the tote board for some clues. (4) REIGNING DEO was in tough spots the past
2 weeks after a sharp win 3 back (adding Lasix) - he's a possibility here with the right trip. (7) GALANTE
A is a very nice horse and as good as any of these - he's also stuck with Post 7, and that's something Zeron
will have to find a way to overcome...worth including if the price is right. (8) ROGERTHAT BLUECHIP
returns off a pair of Pocono scores vs. cheaper, and he gets stuck with Post 8 to make the move up that
much tougher - still willing to include for 3rd/4th, at a big price. (5) WESTERN VACATION doesn't
appear to be clicking right now, but many of his barnmates certainly are - rare opportunity to get a big price
on anything from this crew....if you think he might perk up tonight. (6) BLU CREW steps up to face better
after failing vs. lesser - prefer others. (2) TELL THEM LOU returns off the layoff and may need a start or
two before we see his best.
RACE 10 - (3) MIGHTY SANTANA N finally got into the U.S. win column at PcD 4 starts back, then
raced well here for 3rd the next start - his next pair saw him stuck with 8 holes vs. better but he gets both
post and class relief for tonight, and that may be the key to returning to the winner's circle. (6) TIN ROOF
RAIDER A gets an important drop and he's been able to hold his own vs. better than these - would be no
surprise at all. (1) BENHOPE RULZ N is another getting major post relief and he was 2nd the last 2X he
raced at this level - use in exotics. (4) EGOMANIA has gone several big miles despite all bad posts since
returning from the layoff - would be no surprise to see him pick up a good piece. (8) MACHIATTO A is
stuck all the way outside but has the speed to at least try to improve position - chance to grab a share if that
happens. (5) ALTA LEROY N moves in a couple of notches and is sharp enough to rally late for a piece - if
things go his way. (7) MISTER SPOT A broke 2 back then couldn't handle the first over trip in last -
terrible spot for tonight, but keep an eye for future consideration. (2) BETTING EXCHANGE gets a good
draw, but may be a little too cheap for these.