The Empire Report - Monday, April 5, 2021 - Race Analysis
RACE 1 - Tough opener! (6) RECORD YEAR was wiped out 2 back then stuck in a tough spot in last - it's
possible that he just needs a bit easier to be more effective, but he's still worth a stab in a wide open race -
especially since he'll probably be a pretty juicy price again. (5) MCARDLES LIGHTNING made a break
off the claim 2 back but was actually very good last, appearing loaded in the pocket most of the way -- only
to seemingly just give up right near the end after failing to find room for the drive home - wouldn't hesitate
to use him here, as long as he's not overbet. (1) DRINKA BEER raced well for a bunch of starts but was
unable to grab WINS, usually settling for smaller pieces - nice try for a new barn 2 back (2nd), then in a no
chance spot last week - move inside should make him a big player once again. (3) CONTROL TOWER
raced well in both starts since his last claim, and the official "class hike" really isn't significant - seems a
logical threat once again. (4) OHOKA JOHNNY N was no factor off the 3/15 claim and goes for another
new barn tonight - best work seems to come on the lead, though, and he may not have that option tonight.
(2) LANAS DESIRE was facing age restricted claimers in PA and didn't fare well facing older rivals in his
YR debut - was claimed that night by a hot outfit, so we'll see if he can do better the 2nd time around. (7)
DAVIDS COMING HOME will likely be coming from last - not sure that's going to work here
RACE 2 - (2) EHRMANTROUT is in raging form right now, and clearly Siegelman has plenty of
confidence in him - this is not an "easy" spot by any means but he comes into this having won 3 of his last
4 (good 2nd in the other), and just may be the sharpest of these at the moment. (1) THE REAL ONE raced
MUCH better last week, doing the heavy lifting with a long first over move, then holding off the sharp rival
that tracked him all the way - classy 11YO stayed hot after getting hot last year, and may be ready to go on
another form spree now. (4) CAVIART LUCA has 3 wins and a 2nd from his last7 starts and can still crank
up a big one when in the mood (like he did last start) - deserves plenty of respect, but also seems vulnerable
here with a few other pretty sharp foes to his inside. (3) HEISMAN PLAYER was a solid 3rd in a fast mile
last week after being in no chance spots the prior starts - not sure he's good enough to beat the top ones, but
he's certainly worth considering IF the price is enticing enough. (5) FIZZING N has been very good lately,
but moves up in class while also getting stuck outside 4 sharp foes - seems like a pretty tough spot. (7)
FINE DIAMOND was holding his own at the Open level before throwing a weaker try in last - been away 3
weeks, lands outside, and might already be looking ahead to next week's class drop
RACE 3 - (2) PEMBROKE JOEY has hit board in pretty much every recent start where he did NOT have
Posts 7 or 8 - moves inside off a solid 8 hole 4th in last, catches a beatable field and may even offer a fair
price - definitely one to use here. (5) P H KENNY continues to get claimed every week...despite being well
off the top form he was showing a few months back - might have hesitated to use him here except that he'll
be back racing tonight for a barn that's en fuego right now...and that alone makes him worth including on
your tickets. (3) MILLIONDOLLAR WAVE still hasn't won since the 1/12 claim but he HAS raced well in
most of his starts since then - would be no surprise at all here, and that 10-1 ML is definitely appealing. (1)
BLAYDE HANOVER comes into this riding a 3 race win streak and draws another rail on top of that - on
the flip side, he goes for a new barn tonight, and there's no guarantee that he'll be as sharp here - since he'll
likely be overbet (6/5 ML), the "value play" might be taking a shot against him this week. (4) MIKES POW
ERHOUSE weakened a bit after a first over try shipping in from NJ - at 15-1 ML, willing to include him on
the bottom of exotics. (8) ROCK N BLUE is just 1 for 29 over the past 2 years and draws Post 8 - but since
his barn has really started to heat back up lately, we'll consider for a small piece. (6) TASTE OF HISTORY
seems a bit cheap and lands outside - minor share only. (7) MACHING TIME gets the same barn change as
Ruthless Dude did last week...and that horse regressed significantly - we'll pass, at least for tonight
RACE 4 - MGM BORGATA PACING SERIES - (5) LET IT RIDE N wasn't "bad" last time....he simply
disappointed, as he never could into the hunt and saw his U.S. unbeaten streak ended (as "Empire Report"
readers know, he was actually a great "bet against" from that spot) - he's now had a week off to regroup and
while it's possible that he's actually heading in the wrong direction now, the likelier scenario is that he can
bounce right back with a big effort tonight - definitely deserves that chance. (4) THIS IS THE PLAN has
come up 2nd best in all 3 series legs, including last week's gutsy effort (that saw him parked with cover the
entire way - next in line if the top one falters again. (1) MACH N CHEESE showed last week that he can
still fire off a big one from time to time - draws best, and could grab a nice chunk if he can replicate that
performance. (6) ARTIES IDEAL raced better than expected last time, lacking room in the stretch while
seemingly full of pace - will likely be ignored here but MAYBE if he follows live cover from the back, he
can rally for a piece. (2) RAUKAPUKA RULER N was handled aggressively 2 back and rewarded with an
easy trip, and a 2nd place finish - no chance after taking off the gate in last, but maybe he can grab a share
tonight with a closer up, inside trip. (3) WESTERN FAME seemed worth a look last week but he wasn't up
for the hot mile, and raced on a line much of the way - barn continues to struggle tremendously at Yonkers
RACE 5 - Wide open race: (3) ROCK ON LINE was a sharp first over winner vs. 15s off the claim 2 back,
then double jumped to this level for his last and was charging home late to rally from last to 4th - barn
sending out airplanes these days, and this guy is definitely worth using (assuming the price is square). (7)
PROVOCATIVEPRINCEN could be an excellent bomb tonight - had a "one and done" win for this barn
back on 2/8, then raced super for them in last after being re-claimed, leaving from Post 7 (into a :26.3 first
quarter) then pulling first over into a hot 3/4s and still grabbing 2nd to the scary sharp winner - hopefully
Zeron knows he needs to send him! (4) KEPT UNDER WRAPS A was heavily backed for his new trainer
and driver last week, and returned instant dividends off the claim for his new connections - can certainly
repeat, but this field is definitely tougher than the last one he beat. (8) TWIN B SPEEDO has been sharp for
what seems like eons at this point, although he did come up 2nd best to an even sharper rival in his last pair
- goes for a new (top) barn tonight, but also draws Post 8 off a 3 week layoff - very tough assignment! (1)
CLASSIC PRO is probably better vs. a bit cheaper, but he did use a similar spot last week to grab a pocket
trip behind #4, and finish 2nd - perhaps another piece tonight? (5) FIREBALL showed some life 2 back but
quickly regressed in last - hard to recommend right now for more than a minor share. (2) ROCK N TONY
has been good overall since the barn change 6 starts back, but his only win was on the lead, vs. much
cheaper - needs an easy trip just for a chance at a small piece. (6) FOX VALLEY INFERNO showed some
wear and tear in his last pair after a long run of top efforts - will pass, and watch, for tonight.
RACE 6 - MGM BORGATA PACING SERIES - (4) ROCKAPELO was struggling coming into this series
but quickly found his "A Game", and has come up a winner each of the last 2 weeks - draws inside his main
foe tonight, and that gives him top billing...but hardly a cinch! (7) WESTERN JOE was ok when 4th in the
first leg, came up sharp the next week when he JUST missed to the top choice...then was outstanding in his
last, looking to be empty on the final turn before finding his best into the stretch and just exploding by the
leaders to win going away - way too sharp to ignore, even from Post 7. (1) SHERIFF N had no chance in
any of the first 3 legs because of horrible draws - finally gets to move inside, and a much more competitive
effort is expected...but he'd still need the top ones to falter for a chance at the top prize. (2) PAT STANLEY
N was a solid 3rd in week 1, a game 4th after a tough first over trip in week 2, then really had his chances
compromised in last when he elected to drive on and park NONE BETTOR A the entire way - and easier
trip puts him in play for a decent piece here. (6) MACS JACKPOT has been racing "ok", picking up small
pieces in all 3 legs - will probably be coming from too far back for anything more than that tonight. (3)
IDEAL JIMMY moves back up into the series after dropping out and picking up a front end win over much
softer last week - doesn't figure to have that same impact against these, though. (5) NONE BETTOR A
tired on the lead in week 1, took off the next week, then was brutally parked (by #2) in last - prefer others
RACE 7 - MGM BORGATA PACING SERIES - (4) LEONIDAS A ended his year with a 1:48 win in The
Potomac - was freshened up for his 2021 campaign and was an easy Open winner to prep for this series,
then was an easy winner in both legs that he competed in - gets a decent draw after skipping last week, and
there's no reason to think that he can't keep his winning streak going tonight. (1) OSTRO HANOVER has
been a steady player so far, picking up a 3rd and two 4ths - definitely should be more aggressive from this
spot, and he seems sharp enough to handle it - could be looking at a better piece this week. (2) LYONS
STEEL was sharp (in NJ) coming in to this series, charged home to beat a modest field in the first leg, then
just missed 2nd last week - inside draw should put him in play for another good piece. (7) RODEO ROCK
was unexpectedly sharp in week, charging late for the show spot (at 59-1) - was sent of an insane 3/5 the
next week, but could only rally for 3rd into a fast mile, on a speed favoring track - took off last week, then
got no luck with the draw for tonight, stuck all the way outside - he'll be a big price, though, and not a bad
one to include underneath. (3) SEMI TOUGH has proven in his 2 series starts that he does indeed belong
with these, picking up a 2nd and a 4th - not sure how good a trip he'll be able to get tonight, though. (6)
AMERICAN MERCURY rallied nicely in the first leg to just miss to #2, but was unable to get involved at
all the next 2 weeks - another poor draw may leave in a bad spot once again. (5) TYGA HANOVER has
overachieved so far, but has a new trainer listed for tonight and lands in a tough spot - prefer others.
RACE 8 - (1) MOONSHINE KISSES did an excellent job overcoming a poor trip to still rally for 2nd last
week (behind a runaway PYRO) - he was a winner in his prior 2 starts, and is looking at a much better trip
with tonight's rail draw - major threat from this spot. (6) KEEP ON ROCKING A shipped in sharp on 2/15
and has only gotten sharper since arriving - was in a no prayer spot in last, but he can be a major threat here
if McCarthy can work out a manageable trip. (7) PYRO was last week's blowout winner, delivering a scary
sharp "brush and crush" victory - when he's good he can be super, and maybe even overcome tonight's
terrible draw. (5) TWIN B TUFFENUFF is a hard knocker that rarely goes a bad one - he's another that was
hampered by the trip last week but still raced well - the price will be decent, and he's one to consider. (3)
HEAVENS GAIT was unable to sustain his bid into the stretch last week after a few sharp miles prior to
that - barn is on a tear right now, and this guy will offer some good value if you think he can bounce right
back to one of his better efforts. (4) BO MACH has been using his quick starts to work out close up trips,
and take home good pieces most weeks - not sure he can beat these, but another good piece IS possible. (2)
MAGRITTE had been on an amazing form spree before finding these a bit too tough last week - may need
an easier bunch to get back to that stellar form. (8) ROLLWITHPAPAJOE absolutely crushed his rivals last
week - the fact that he's listed this far down (only because of Post 8) is an indication of just how
competitive this bunch is.
RACE 9 - (1) TITO ROCKS has raced well here in all 5 of his starts, including a few outside posts - he
returns from Pocono off a very gutsy win that saw him pace his own 3rd quarter in :26 flat while stuck first
over, then still able to wear down the leader after a long stretch battle - have to give him the edge tonight
with the rail draw. (2) TOOKADIVEOFFDIPPER had been underachieving for a while but appreciated last
week's class drop and was one of several recent form reversing winners for the barn - major threat to take
another. (3) ROCK THE DEVIL was outstanding here in 2019, climbing all the way up the class ladder
while compiling an outstanding 10-7-1-0 record - returns off a three month freshening (and solid NJ qua.),
draws inside, but may need a start or two before we see his best. (4) HOT DEUCE had no chance in his
first 2 starts of 2021 but came alive last week at PcD, finishing 3rd (in the same race as the top choice) -
definitely one to include in exotics. (8) MARK WITHA K is back on a major upswing, but gets buried by
the draw tonight - hard to see a way into the race for him but he IS razor sharp and will be a big price - use
him if you think he can get into the hunt. (5) IDEAL STAR N never races the same way twice, and at times
can get erratic just at different points in the same mile - he does have some ability, though, and may be able
to rally late for a small piece. Both (6) CAVIART SKYLER and (7) RUNRUNJIMMYDUNN N would be
getting much more consideration if not for their outside draws.
RACE 10 - Tough finale! (1) FLYING FINN N had been really struggling but turned things around about
the same time that his entire barn started to click, and he comes into this race off a pair of sharp victories -
steps up but draws the pole, and that may help extend his win streak to 3. (2) AIR FORCE HANOVER is
one of the only horses in his barn right now that's actually doing any good - jogged over lesser in his last,
but looks like this class should be within his reach too - major danger. (7) ESCAPETOTHEBEACH gets a
pass for his last (horror trip) but had been very sharp across the river prior to that, and he's won races here
in the past - if he's a decent price, he's worth considering. (6) ROCK LIGHTS is an interesting bomb - he
put in a BIG blitz last week (debuting for his new barn) but suddenly just stopped from the final turn - he's
been camera shy here at YR, but his barn clicks at an ultra-impressive 30% ...worth a shot? (4) SOHO
WALLSTREET A was in an impossible spot in his last start here but that mile is sandwiched between a win
and a nose loss at Fhd. - definitely playable in exotics. (3) NO ORDINARY MAN has been a steady piece
getter vs. tougher, but may still be stuck taking home a lesser share, even with tonight's class drop. (8)
WINDSUN RICKY had been struggling here recently, missed a month after sick scratch then showed up
with a big mile at Fhd. to beat cheaper - hard to see him rallying for more than a minor share from out here,
though. (5) SPORTS BETTOR brought his "A Game" and was an easy winner vs. softer in last - usually
struggles up at this level, however.