The Empire Report - Tuesday, April 6, 2021 - Race Analysis
RACE 1 - (1) LINNYCALLEDFRANKIE prepped nicely for his 2YO campaign, rallied very nicely for
3rd in his first career start but was put on the shelf after a poor try in his next outing - came back to qualify
3/12 at Fhd. and was right there 2nd against an accomplished older horse, then delivered an easy "brush and
crush" victory in his official 3YO debut - rail draw stamps his as the one to beat here. (6) MAJOR SHOW
also showed promise right off the bat at 2, but made a break in his 2nd start (NYSS) and was turned out -
his return qualifier at Pocono was excellent, and he definitely could be a player here IF Kakaley gets to put
him in the hunt from Post 6. (2) DILLINGER turned in a much better performance when 3rd last week -
looking at a decent trip from this spot, and belongs in your exotics. (7) MOXLEY gave it a good speed try
in his YR debt before weakening to 2nd - terrible draw, but has enough speed to get off to a quick start -
chance for another good piece. (3) FATHER FRED is just 2 for 29 but he's a fairly consistent piece getter,
and had a chance for a minor share tonight. (4) THREE DRAGONS is now 0 for 37 but has been known to
save ground and land small pieces here in the past - maybe 3rd? (5) CHEEK THIS OUT does have 4 career
wins, but at cheaper tracks (facing softer) - likely one of several looking to battle for minor spoils tonight.
(8) YER SO BAD lagged badly from the rail last start, and now is stuck with Post 8.
RACE 2 - (3) ROCK THE NITE was picked up by new connections before his last and went a pretty solid
mile (vs. better) over at The Swamp - lands in a pretty soft field for his YR return, and he's the one they'll
have to catch, and beat. (5) TAP TAP TAP has basically been an "all or nothing" horse regardless of which
barn he races out of - seems like a good spot for him to leave the gate and possibly sit a two hole trip - and
that would give him the best shot at knocking off the top choice. (1) THEFREEDOMFIGHTERN is 0 for
17 here the past 3 years but is in a good spot to just sit up close, do very little racing, and possibly take
home a decent piece of this. (4) KNOCKING AROUND was empty 2 back and lacked any real stretch pop
in last - that being said, if he can perk up to anything near his more "typical" mile, it would give him a
chance for at least a small piece of this. (6) MACH TIME N beat this class on 1/12, then came up with a
variety of efforts in his next several starts (vs. better) - bad post of a terrible try, but perhaps the class drop
will wake him back up a bit. (7) LENWOODS REAL DEAL is as good as most of these, but Post 7 figures
to limit his output tonight - suppose he could be 3rd/4th, with some trip luck. (2) TALENT SOUP beat a
few really struggling rivals last week but just hasn't been any good at all for months - remains a pass. (8)
CARTERS CAPER was "ok" last time, but unlucky to get anywhere near the leaders tonight.
RACE 3 - (3) ROLLING WITH SAM did excellent work throughout the recent series, and really did as
well as he could to grab 4th in the Final (from a totally impossible spot) - drops back down to a "regular"
NW4 race and he's clearly best of the locals...we'll see if he's also good enough to handle the fresh face
from the pole. (1) MAJOR BEAN showed some ability at 2 up in Canada, taking a 1:53 mark and right
there 4th in the Champlain - sold after 2 starts back at 3 and promptly delivered a 5 length blowout at
Pocono - clearly the main danger! (2) BOLT OF LUCK did win a couple of races here last year, and returns
from Monti in solid form - looking at a good trip, and probably a decent piece (8) BRAZEN BRAZILLIAN
really disappointed in his last couple but he just might not be as good cutting the mile - does have the speed
to blast from Post 8 if Siegelman decides to, and that would give him a chance to land a piece ..at a price.
(4) GAMBLINGTERROR is rarely a threat to win, but he's picked up a ton of pieces from his 61 career
starts - throw him in underneath. (5) WALK IT TALK IT came up terrible last week after an improved try
the week before - hard to know which version we'll see tonight, but willing to throw in for 3rd. (7) ROLL
WITH DOM hasn't shown that he can overcome these outside draws - prefer others. (6) ALWAYS ON THE
HUNT just qualified back after 6+ months away - just watching, for now
RACE 4 - (3) CASUAL COOL qualified back nicely after 4 months off (2md to Nicholas Beach) then had
a very useful tightener, pacing in 1:51 (vs. better) right off the bench - he's gone some big miles here in the
past when "right", and he sure seems like he's in a good, fresh way at the moment - giving him top billing.
(4) BENHOPE RULZ N has a win and three 2nds from his last 7 starts...and was stuck with 7 and 8 holes
in the other three races - very legit threat here with any half decent trip. (1) ONE OFF DELIGHT A is 0 for
10 this year (and his barn has been struggling here in 2021 as well), but he's an excellent fit with these,
draws the pole, and would be no surprise at all - just don't take a short price if using him on top. (2)
BLATANTLY BEST seems to do his better work with a bit cheaper but he moves to a barn that has been
known to win at a good rate off the claim, and he shouldn't be dismissed - may need a couple of the top
ones to come up short in order to win this, though. (5) CAROLINA MAGIC probably needs a class drop to
win, but he's been holding his own at this level, grabbing pieces each week - may be able to do so again,
but won't be easy with 4 solid rivals inside of him. (8) GINGRAS BEACH drops for a hot barn but doesn't
seem likely to be too serious a player from all the way out here - maybe a minor share? (7) SOUTHWIND
MOROCCAN came up with better efforts the last 2 starts (pair of 2nds) but lands outside while moving up,
and that's a tough combination to overcome. (6) TREVOR ONE has lost too often here vs. cheaper to
consider against these...especially from the outside.
RACE 5 - (4) GALANTE A has come up with big efforts in all 4 local tries, despite an assortment of tough
spots and trips - would seem like a spot where he can get a bit more aggressive, but he's shown that he's
quite comfortable racing from behind as well - will be a much shorter price than last week, but still worth
using. (5) SUMTHINBOUTIM threw back to back BIG miles to grab a pair of wins to start off March -
stuck too far back to threaten in last but gets some important post relief for tonight and that should put him
right back in the hunt for the top prize. (1) REIGNING DEO has become a bit unreliable lately but on his
best, we know he can beat these - worth including IF the price is decent. (3) ODDS ON BREXIT came up
with his best effort in a while to win the "M Life" consolation - this is a much tougher overall field he'll be
facing here, so we'll see if he can build even more off that last mile and be a serious player with these too.
(6) PANTHER TIME was a player in all 3 series legs as well as the consolation - never did get a win, and
tonight's draw will likely leave him with an even smaller share. (8) TELL THEM LOU landed on a great
trip in a wild race and almost pulled off the upset in his first start back off the layoff - no luck with the draw
tonight, though, and may struggle to get into contention here. (7) IM A GIGOLO N adds Lasix tonight and
that might explain the weak performances in his last pair - guessing he'll be handled conservatively with the
bad draw. (2) REPEAL OR REPLACE qualified nicely after shipping north, but he'll have to prove that he
can hang with these types.
RACE 6 - Tough race: (3) VIRGIN STORM has been coming up with big miles most weeks for some time,
and always seems to be a good price - in a race with lots of possibilities, he's definitely one that could offer
some good value. (1) TYMAL PEACEMAKER just missed to a razor sharp Ehrmantrout 3 back then was
right behind prohibitively favored Speed Man N in his next...making last week's decision to sit in 3rd (after
a :57.3 half!) quite puzzling, to say the least - barn has been sending out winners at their fiery 2020 pace
again, and it would be hard to leave this guy off your ticket here. (7) BETTER MEMORIES took back to
last from a similar spot last week but that doesn't mean he'll do that tonight - very legit threat if able to get
in play early on. (6) CAN B PERFECT has been on a lengthy form spree, seemingly able to handle any trip
that comes his way - outside draw doesn't help, though it does create a better price - possible. (2) ANTHEM
N generally does his winning one level down, but could easily grab a piece of this with the good draw - use
underneath. (5) GROOVY JOE had a good 3YO campaign after going 10-7-3-0 at 2 - fully expecting him
to have a solid 4YO season, but it's his first start back and he may not be fully cranked just yet. (4)
SPORTS OBSESSION has really elevated his game at Stga, lately but he'll need to prove that he can race
as well against these - just watching, for now. (8) HERRICKROOSEVELT N comes into this riding a 3
race win streak...but that's in serious jeopardy here as he draws Post 8, while moving up to face tougher
RACE 7 - (1) KERFORD ROAD A has been sharp for ages, and has shown that he CAN be aggressive
when he draws the pole - definitely feels like a winning spot for him, with the only knock being that his
barn has just been ice cold here since the start of the year (4 for 80) - still gets top billing. (3) WORLD OF
SECRETS got stuck with Post 8 in his local debut and the Nfd. Open performer raced pretty well despite an
impossible trip - expecting a better trip tonight...and probably a better result. (5) SPEED MAN N is a tough
call - was an "ugly" winner at 10 cents on the dollar 2 back, then an "ok" 2nd from the pocket in last - he's
clearly capable of better miles and may bring one tonight...it's that 2-1 ML that makes him a lot less
attractive. (4) GLACIS moves up in class after failing to beat lesser week after week...but he also races well
enough for good PIECES every week, and his barn is back to hitting on all cylinders again - use underneath
(6) ORILLIA JOE has held form beautifully as he's climbed the class ladder, using his gate speed to keep
creating good trips for himself despite a series of bad draws - and he just may be able to do it again! (2)
EPIC ACE has been consistent lately, but vs. cheaper - seems a bit overmatched here, even with the good
draw. Both (7) QUATRAIN BLUE CHIP and (8) ON THE VIRG are sharp enough to be contenders... but
probably not from their extreme outside posts - waiting for better spots for both of them
RACE 8 - (1) SANTAFES COACH never really had room to stretch his legs last week but he appeared to
have plenty of pace in the tank...and that's in line with how he's been finishing for the last few weeks - he's
hard to "love" (because he does rely on trip luck, even from the pole), but he does seem overdue to shake
free at the right time and win one of these. (6) EGOMANIA has been really good since returning from a
brief layoff but definitely didn't appreciate cutting the mile last week - maybe he can work out a live cover
trip here and get it done at a decent price? (8) HIGHLAND TARTAN is the "x factor" here - has more than
enough ability to beat these....but will Stratton give him a chance from Post 8 or just retreat to last, and wait
for a drop to NW7500 next week - hard to say! (5) MACINTOSH N has been sharp lately, other than when
stuck with a couple of bad posts - would be no surprise at all. (4) BETTING EXCHANGE has been very
solid lately but he doesn't get that many WINS as it is, and he may need to be in a bit easier to get his
picture taken - certainly one to include in exotics, though. (3) BIG BAD BILL steps in fairly good form -
not sure he's a threat to beat these, but he is one to consider for a smaller piece. (2) SOHO CHELSEA A
failed trying to cut the mile vs. cheaper in his last start here - prefer others, but could see him taking home a
piece with an easy enough trip. (7) STARZNHEAVEN won his only start here last year but doesn't seem to
be shipping in as sharp this time....and Post 7 only makes things that much tougher
RACE 9 - Good race! (3) SO MANY ROADS isn't as flashy as some of the other contenders in here but
that also means he offers a better price - charged home through the lane to upset at 17-1 last time, and
barnmates The Real One and Tookadiveoffdipper both came back to make it two in a row on Monday night
- maybe this guy can trip out and join that list too? (5) DIAMONDBEACH has been doing outstanding
work for a barn that has really come to life lately - has plenty of gate speed but has also shown that he can
race from behind, if necessary - should be a serious threat tonight. (7) DRAGON SAID's incredible
transformation has already been documented several times (and is obvious from just a quick glance at his
lines BEFORE the 2/23 barn change, and then AFTER) - comes into this at 4 for 4 since moving to the
"Super Siblings", and he now has added gate speed to his arsenal (after not really having any, for the first
30 starts of his career) - you really don't want him to beat you if he's any kind of fair price. (6) SUN OF A
SHOW continues to blast off the car and grab good trips...leading to good pieces, at good prices - may very
well do that again tonight. (1) RETOUR AU JEU was super in his first few starts back off the layoff but the
last couple haven't been the same - hard to say if it's because of the bad trips, or because he's leveled off -
guess we'll find out tonight. (8) FOREVER FAV has been very solid, fits for sure, but would need things to
just fall apart up front in order to reach from out here. (4) SCOOTNROLL has a couple of good tries here
but does seem a notch below some of the top players.
RACE 10 - (3) MIKES Z TAM was finally put in play last week and kicked home in a flashy :27.1 to
easily complete the front end score - moves up a notch for tonight, but he really shouldn't have too much
trouble with these either. (6) DON DOMINGO N flew from 7th to just miss the last time he was in this
class - has three 2nds from 6 starts against better since then, and should race much better than his 12-1 ML
price - use in exotics. (4) LISBURN is very good right now, and steps up off a hard fought win in last -
another that belongs underneath. (1) MCCLINCHIE N had a useful tightener off the layoff last week, and
now draws the pole - could be sharper this week, and could easily land somewhere on the ticket. (2)
DANCIN DRAG ON shipped in from PA and was sent off favored despite a trio of poor starts out of town -
raced just as poorly here, as he tired to 8th after cutting the mile - he'll find his form eventually...but is
worth playing against (at short prices) until that happens. (5) BLACKLIGHT has done his best work with
cheaper - needs to prove he can go with these before getting an endorsement. (8) MAROMA BEACH beat
cheaper from a pocket 2 back, and almost wire 'em in last - steps up yet again, draws Post 8, and may not
ever get into the hunt tonight. (7) WAINAC ATTACK N needs a drop and better post before getting a more
serious look